Hybrid method reveals true currency correlations.
problem Identify currency status in foreign exchange networks.
method Combines DCCC and network deconvolution to filter indirect effects.
result Reflects currency status changes and is more stable.
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48 results for “exchangeable networks”
Paper detects anomalous edges in social networks using edge exchangeability.
problem Detecting anomalous edges in directed social networks.
method Exploits edge exchangeability and uses conformal prediction theory.
result Proposed anomaly detector has a guaranteed upper bound for false positives.
XSPNs combine SPNs and MEVMs for efficient inference in data with repeated parts.
problem Efficient inference in data with repeated interchangeable parts.
method Introducing Exchangeability-Aware Sum-Product Networks (XSPNs) that combine SPNs and MEVMs.
result XSPNs can be more accurate than conventional SPNs when data contains repeated parts.
We use techniques from network science to study correlations in the foreign exchange (FX) market over the period 1991--2008. We consider an FX market network in which each node represents an exchange rate and each weighted edge represents a time-dependent correlation between the rates. To provide insights into the clus…
New framework models non-exchangeable networks with latent orders and graphons.
problem Modeling non-exchangeable network data with complex dependencies.
method Latent orders and graphon-based approach for adjacency matrix probabilities.
result Consistent estimation and clustering of latent network structure.
New neural model processes 2D data with long-range dependencies efficiently.
problem Limited receptive field of convolutions for complex 2D tasks.
method Proposes Matrix Shuffle-Exchange network with layers and complexity.
result Exceeds convolutional and graph neural network baselines in long-range dependency modeling.
We study two kinds of economic exchange, additive and multiplicative, in a system of N agents. The work is divided in two parts, in the first one, the agents are free to interact with each other. The system evolves to a Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution with additive exchange and condenses with a multiplicative one. If bank…
Study the Mexican stock market's interdependency structure from 2000-2019.
problem Characterize the interdependency structure of the Mexican Stock Exchange.
method Estimate correlation/concentration matrices from different models and compute network theory metrics.
result Visualizations provide a comprehensive overview of the stock market's interdependency structure.
Model studies money exchange stability in social networks.
problem Stability and wealth equality in money exchange systems.
method Evolved Deffuant model to study money exchange.
result Asymptotic stability and wealth equality conditions identified.
We investigate an existing distributed algorithm for learning sparse signals or data over networks. The algorithm is iterative and exchanges intermediate estimates of a sparse signal over a network. This learning strategy using exchange of intermediate estimates over the network requires a limited communication overhea…
Exchanges in complex networks: income and wealth distributionscond-mat.stat-mech
We investigate the wealth evolution in a system of agents that exchange wealth through a disordered network in presence of an additive stochastic Gaussian noise. We show that the resulting wealth distribution is shaped by the degree distribution of the underlying network and in particular we verify that scale free netw…
A variety of machine learning tasks---e.g., matrix factorization, topic modelling, and feature allocation---can be viewed as learning the parameters of a probability distribution over bipartite graphs. Recently, a new class of models for networks, the sparse exchangeable graphs, have been introduced to resolve some imp…
We use insight from a model of earth tectonic plate movement to obtain a new understanding of the build up and release of stress in the price dynamics of the worlds stock exchanges. Nonlinearity enters the model due to a behavioral attribute of humans reacting disproportionately to big changes. This nonlinear response …
Kinetic models for wealth exchange on directed networksphysics.soc-ph
We propose some kinetic models of wealth exchange and investigate their behavior on directed networks though numerical simulations. We observe that network topology and directedness yields a variety of interesting features in these models. The nature of asset distribution in such directed networks show varied results, …
EBPs model exchangeable data with flexible distributions.
problem Current energy-based models restrict set cardinality and limited distribution forms.
method Introduced Energy-Based Processes (EBPs) that extend energy models to exchangeable data with neural network parameterizations.
result EBPs can express more flexible distributions over sets without cardinality restrictions.
Many models of market dynamics make use of the idea of conservative wealth exchanges among economic agents. A few years ago an exchange model using extremal dynamics was developed and a very interesting result was obtained: a self-generated minimum wealth or poverty line. On the other hand, the wealth distribution exhi…
Dynamic communities in multichannel data: An application to the foreign exchange market during the 2007--2008 credit crisisphysics.soc-ph
We study the cluster dynamics of multichannel (multivariate) time series by representing their correlations as time-dependent networks and investigating the evolution of network communities. We employ a node-centric approach that allows us to track the effects of the community evolution on the functional roles of indiv…
It is assumed that under suitable economic and information-theoretic conditions, market exchange rates are free from arbitrage. Commodity markets in which trades occur over a complete graph are shown to be trivial. We therefore examine the vector space of no-arbitrage exchange rate ensembles over an arbitrary connected…
Directed graphs occur throughout statistical modeling of networks, and exchangeability is a natural assumption when the ordering of vertices does not matter. There is a deep structural theory for exchangeable undirected graphs, which extends to the directed case via measurable objects known as digraphons. Using digraph…
We present a novel family of deep neural architectures, named partially exchangeable networks (PENs) that leverage probabilistic symmetries. By design, PENs are invariant to block-switch transformations, which characterize the partial exchangeability properties of conditionally Markovian processes. Moreover, we show th…
We investigate topology and temporal evolution of the foreign currency exchange market viewed from a weighted network perspective. Based on exchange rates for a set of 46 currencies (including precious metals), we construct different representations of the FX network depending on a choice of the base currency. Our resu…
Validates network bootstraps for uncertainty quantification in network visualisation.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in network embeddings when only a single observation is available.
method Statistical indistinguishable embeddings using k-nearest neighbour smoothing, validated by an exchangeable network test.
result Proposes a principled, distribution-free network bootstrap that passes the exchangeable network test.
Using Recurrent Neural Networks To Forecasting of Forexcond-mat.dis-nn
This paper reports empirical evidence that a neural networks model is applicable to the statistically reliable prediction of foreign exchange rates. Time series data and technical indicators such as moving average, are fed to neural nets to capture the underlying "rules" of the movement in currency exchange rates. The …
Study on communication delays in decentralized learning networks.
problem Optimizing communication latency in decentralized learning networks.
method Utilized network information theory and random geometric graph theory.
result Communication delay scales as O(n^(2-3β)/βlog n).
The paper reviews exchangeability and its implications for conformal prediction and rank tests.
problem Ensuring distribution-free predictive inference in machine learning and statistics.
method Explains exchangeability and its role in conformal prediction and rank tests.
result Discovers similarities between conformal prediction and rank tests based on exchangeability.
Statistical network modeling has focused on representing the graph as a discrete structure, namely the adjacency matrix, and considering the exchangeability of this array. In such cases, the Aldous-Hoover representation theorem (Aldous, 1981;Hoover, 1979} applies and informs us that the graph is necessarily either dens…
Neural ARFIMA model improves exchange rate forecasting for BRIC economies.
problem Forecasting exchange rates for emerging markets with long-term memory and nonlinear dynamics.
method Integrates ARFIMA for long-memory with neural networks for nonlinear approximation.
result NARFIMA model outperforms benchmarks in BRIC exchange rate forecasting.
Paper introduces a new edge exchangeable block model for complex networks.
problem Limitations of the stochastic block model in analyzing complex networks.
method Develops a Bayesian nonparametric edge exchangeable block model.
result The new model outperforms state-of-the-art SBMs for link prediction.
Any discussion on exchange rate movements and forecasting should include explanatory variables from both the current account and the capital account of the balance of payments. In this paper, we include such factors to forecast the value of the Indian rupee vis a vis the US Dollar. Further, factors reflecting political…
The cryptocurrency market is a very huge market without effective supervision. It is of great importance for investors and regulators to recognize whether there are market manipulation and its manipulation patterns. This paper proposes an approach to mine the transaction networks of exchanges for answering this questio…
We study how the phenomenon of contagion can take place in the network of the world's stock exchanges due to the behavioral trait "blindeness to small changes". On large scale individual, the delay in the collective response may significantly change the dynamics of the overall system. We explicitely insert a term descr…
Study finds significant price declines and capital reallocation from centralized to decentralized exchanges after FTX collapse.
problem Quantifying trust dynamics and redistribution between centralized and decentralized exchanges.
method Interdisciplinary approach combining causal inference and computational text analysis.
result Significant price declines and capital reallocation from centralized to decentralized exchanges following the FTX collapse.
Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution arises as the statistical equilibrium probability distribution of money among the agents of a closed economic system where random and undirected exchanges are allowed. When considering a model with uniform savings in the exchanges, the final distribution is close to the gamma family. In thi…
Data-aware activation function customization reduces neural network error.
problem Current neural networks lack consideration for specific activation functions.
method Linear algebraic explanation and Diaconis-Shahshahani Approximation Theorem criteria for activation functions.
result Using an even activation function like seagull can reduce neural network error by orders of magnitude.
The paper analyzes sterling bills of exchange during the first globalization, revealing their global financial role.
problem Understanding the global financial role of sterling bills of exchange during the first globalization.
method Descriptive statistics and network analysis of a unique data set of 23,493 bills re-discounted by the Bank of England in 1906.
result Sterling bills of exchange had a truly global dimension and were crucial for overcoming information asymmetries.
There are many studies dealing with the analysis of similarity among currencies in foreign exchange market by using network analysis approach. In those studies, each currency is represented by a univariate time series of exchange rate return. This is the standard practice to analyze the underlying information in the fo…
Cryptocurrencies are distributed systems that allow exchanges of native tokens among participants, or the exchange of such tokens for fiat currencies in markets external to these public ledgers. The availability of their complete historical bookkeeping opens up the possibility of understanding the relationship between …
Arbitrage impact on the relationship between XRP price and correlation tensor spectra of transaction networksphysics.soc-ph
Study examines how crypto arbitrage affects XRP price and network correlation.
problem Impact of crypto arbitrage on XRP price and network correlation.
method Examined XRP price fluctuations and correlation tensor spectra of transaction networks across crypto exchanges.
result Arbitrage opportunities across crypto exchanges anti-correlate with XRP price during bubble periods.
Many popular network models rely on the assumption of (vertex) exchangeability, in which the distribution of the graph is invariant to relabelings of the vertices. However, the Aldous-Hoover theorem guarantees that these graphs are dense or empty with probability one, whereas many real-world graphs are sparse. We prese…
Validates conformal prediction for network data under non-uniform sampling.
problem Validity of conformal prediction for network data under non-representative sampling.
method Interprets sampling mechanisms as selection rules, studies validity conditional on selection events, uses permutation invariance and joint exchangeability.
result Finite-sample validity of conformal prediction for certain selection events and asymptotic validity for random walk sampling.
Exchanges acquire excess processing capacity to accommodate trading activity surges associated with zero-sum high-frequency trader (HFT) "duels." The idle capacity's opportunity cost is an externality of low-latency trading. We build a model of decentralized exchanges (DEX) with flexible capacity. On DEX, HFTs acquire …
We analyze structure of the world foreign currency exchange (FX) market viewed as a network of interacting currencies. We analyze daily time series of FX data for a set of 63 currencies, including gold, silver and platinum. We group together all the exchange rates with a common base currency and study each group separa…
Paper uses GNNs to efficiently detect profitable triangular arbitrage opportunities.
problem Detecting profitable triangular arbitrage opportunities in dynamic markets.
method Formulate the problem as a graph-based optimization task and use a GNN architecture to capture complex relationships.
result GNN-based method achieves higher average yield with reduced computational time compared to traditional methods.
Study improves forecasting in betting markets using novel neural networks.
problem Improving short-term price movement predictions in betting exchanges.
method Innovative convolutional attention mechanisms applied to recurrent neural networks and bi-dimensional layers.
result All proposed innovations positively impact classification task performance.
Empirical evidence suggests that heavy-tailed degree distributions occurring in many real networks are well-approximated by power laws with exponents that may take values either less than and greater than two. Models based on various forms of exchangeability are able to capture power laws with , and admit tra…
Currency volatility shocks predict lower excess returns, and buying weak transmitters outperforms selling strong ones.
problem Predicting currency returns using volatility shocks.
method Constructed a dynamic, directed network of volatility connections using option-implied volatilities.
result Currencies that transmit more volatility shocks earn lower excess returns.
Learning the Spoofability of Limit Order Books With Interpretable Probabilistic Neural Networksq-fin.TR
Real-time detection of spoofing in cryptocurrency exchanges using neural networks.
problem Detecting and mitigating spoofing activity in limit order books.
method Novel order flow variables based on multi-scale Hawkes processes and a probabilistic market manipulation gain model.
result 31% of large orders could spoof the market, highlighting the importance of posting distance in price formation.
This paper compares traditional econometric and contemporary machine/deep learning techniques for forecasting foreign exchange rates.
problem Accurate prediction of foreign exchange rates for investment purposes.
method Multivariate time series analysis using Vector Auto Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Recurrent Neural Networks.
result Contemporary machine/deep learning techniques outperform traditional econometric methods in forecasting foreign exchange rates.