A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This study explains and mitigates inflated returns and turnover in SPO-based portfolio optimization.
We advocate the use of Agnostic Allocation for the construction of long-only portfolios of stocks. We show that Agnostic Allocation Portfolios (AAPs) are a special member of a family of risk-based portfolios that are able to mitigate certain extreme features (excess concentration, high turnover, strong exposure to low-…
Average Oracle outperforms DCC+NLS in portfolio optimization.
New method estimates portfolio turnover using covariance matrix of returns.
Turnover-adjusted IR is always lower than classic IR, suggesting managers can improve performance by limiting turnover.
We show that any immersion, which is not a covering of an embedded 2-orbifold, of a totally geodesic hyperbolic turnover in a complete orientable hyperbolic 3-orbifold is contained in a hyperbolic 3-suborbifold with totally geodesic boundary, called the "turnover core,'' whose volume is bounded from above by a function…
Internal crossing of trades between multiple alpha streams results in portfolio turnover reduction. Turnover reduction can be modeled using the correlation structure of the alpha streams. As more and more alphas are added, generally turnover reduces. In this note we use a factor model approach to address the question o…
Study projective deformations of hyperbolic 3-orbifolds with turnover ends.
We give a simple explicit formula for turnover reduction when a large number of alphas are traded on the same execution platform and trades are crossed internally. We model turnover reduction via alpha correlations. Then, for a large number of alphas, turnover reduction is related to the largest eigenvalue and the corr…
The paper calculates optimal trading turnover in terms of asset liquidity and alpha autocorrelation.
Sparse portfolio strategy from mutual funds' favorite stocks in China A share market.
This paper illustrates the similarities between the problems of customer churn and employee turnover. An example of employee turnover prediction model leveraging classical machine learning techniques is developed. Model outputs are then discussed to design \& test employee retention policies. This type of retention dis…
The detection of community structure in stock market is of theoretical and practical significance for the study of financial dynamics and portfolio risk estimation. We here study the community structures in Chinese stock markets from the aspects of both price returns and turnover rates, by using a combination of the PM…
Optimized portfolio turnover strategies enhance wealth and reduce costs.
It is well known that combining multiple hedge fund alpha streams yields diversification benefits to the resultant portfolio. Additionally, crossing trades between different alpha streams reduces transaction costs. As the number of alpha streams increases, the relative turnover of the portfolio decreases as more trades…
Enhances trading metrics with financially grounded loss functions.
We analyze empirical data for 4,000 real-life trading portfolios (U.S. equities) with holding periods of about 0.7-19 trading days. We find a simple scaling C ~ 1/T, where C is cents-per-share, and T is the portfolio turnover. Thus, the portfolio return R has no statistically significant dependence on the turnover T. W…
Commodity ETFs' portfolio optimization under heavy-tailed returns.
We present explicit formulas - that are also computer code - for 101 real-life quantitative trading alphas. Their average holding period approximately ranges 0.6-6.4 days. The average pair-wise correlation of these alphas is low, 15.9%. The returns are strongly correlated with volatility, but have no significant depend…
Quantum stochastic walks optimize portfolios by leveraging financial networks, improving Sharpe ratios and reducing turnover.
We discuss investment allocation to multiple alpha streams traded on the same execution platform with internal crossing of trades and point out differences with allocating investment when alpha streams are traded on separate execution platforms with no crossing. First, in the latter case allocation weights are non-nega…
Study on CEF discount in Bangladesh, finds size and maturity impact, turnover negative.
We study trade-based manipulation of stock prices from the perspective of complex trading networks constructed by using detailed information of trades. A stock trading network consists of nodes and directed links, where every trader is a node and a link is formed from one trader to the other if the former sells shares …
The popularity of modern portfolio theory has decreased among practitioners because of its unfavorable out-of-sample performance. Estimation errors tend to affect the optimal weight calculation noticeably, especially when a large number of assets is considered. To overcome these issues, many methods have been proposed …
Conformal prediction fails under severe feature turnover in COVID-19 supply chain tasks.
Study uses RL to optimize global equity portfolios, finds mixed results.
We theoretically and empirically study portfolio optimization under transaction costs and establish a link between turnover penalization and covariance shrinkage with the penalization governed by transaction costs. We show how the ex ante incorporation of transaction costs shifts optimal portfolios towards regularized …
This paper compares two stock factor models in China's A-share market.
We classify the 3-dimensional hyperbolic polyhedral orbifolds that contain no embedded essential 2-suborbifolds, up to decomposition along embedded hyperbolic triangle orbifolds (turnovers). We give a necessary condition for a 3-dimensional hyperbolic polyhedral orbifold to contain an immersed (singular) hyperbolic tur…
Properties of distributions of the number of trades in different intraday time intervals for five stocks traded in MICEX are studied. The dependence of the mean number of trades on the capital turnover is analyzed. Correlation analysis using factorial and moments demonstrates the multifractal nature of these dist…
The Internet is known to have had a powerful impact on on-line retailer strategies in markets characterised by long-tail distribution of sales. Such retailers can exploit the long tail of the market, since they are effectively without physical limit on the number of choices on offer. Here we examine two extensions of t…
Study compares optimal vs. naive diversification in crypto markets, finds time-varying moments improve performance.
Unified framework for fast large-scale portfolio optimization.
Despite the availability of very detailed data on financial market, agent-based modeling is hindered by the lack of information about real trader behavior. This makes it impossible to validate agent-based models, which are thus reverse-engineering attempts. This work is a contribution to the building of a set of styliz…
Different optimizer choices lead to different financial model predictions.
Model predicts risk-adjusted returns across various financial markets.
Deep learning improves options trading without market assumptions.
We find that when measured in terms of dollar-turnover, and once -neutralised and Low-Vol neutralised, the Size Effect is alive and well. With a long term t-stat of , the "Cold-Minus-Hot" (CMH) anomaly is certainly not less significant than other well-known factors such as Value or Quality. As compared to marke…
FR-LUX optimizes portfolio management by learning cost-aware policies robust to market conditions.
HRT uses bi-level reinforcement learning to optimize stock selection and execution in multi-asset equity markets.
Investor-driven information diffusion affects excess comovement in China and the U.S. markets.
Bayesian Black-Litterman model updated to use market data for latent variables.
Mathematical study of excess growth rate connects info theory with finance.
There is convincing evidence showing that the probability distributions of stock returns in mature markets exhibit power-law tails and both the positive and negative tails conform to the inverse cubic law. It supports the possibility that the tail exponents are universal at least for mature markets in the sense that th…
Paper develops a robust hedging framework to reduce market risk and uncertainty.
In statistical learning theory, convex surrogates of the 0-1 loss are highly preferred because of the computational and theoretical virtues that convexity brings in. This is of more importance if we consider smooth surrogates as witnessed by the fact that the smoothness is further beneficial both computationally- by at…
LLM-based trading systems vary in execution realism and reproducibility.
New tool detects 'fleeting modes' causing excess risk in financial markets.