High-frequency traders manage inventories to exploit price information, leading to mean-reverting inventories and excess trading.
problem Managing inventories for high-frequency traders in imperfect competition.
method Analyzes Nash equilibria for inventory-averse HFTs using nonlinear equations and asymptotic analysis.
result Optimal inventories become mean-reverting and vanish in the continuous-time limit, while HFTs' profits converge to risk-neutral counterparts.
We study the relation between the trading behavior of agents and volatility in toy markets of adaptive inductively rational agents. We show that excess volatility, in such simplified markets, arises as a consequence of {\em i)} the neglect of market impact implicit in price taking behavior and of {\em ii)} excessive re…
Study shows how multiple traders can trade together without excessive price impact.
problem Coordination issues in trading to exploit a common signal.
method Closed-loop Nash competition model for stochastic differential games.
result Excessive trading reduced but not significantly for practical parameters.
Extended Kyle model with long memory trading volume, finds excessive price volatility.
problem Understanding insider trading dynamics with long memory trading volume.
method Extended Kyle model with stochastic noise trading volatility and long memory trading volume.
result Excessive price volatility due to insider's aggressive trading strategy in high noise trading volume.
Pairs trading strategy fails to outperform market benchmarks, but performs well during bear markets.
problem The validity of pairs trading as a profitable strategy in modern markets.
method Used common distance and cointegration methods on US equities from 1990 to 2020, including the Covid-19 crisis.
result The pairs trading strategy does not consistently outperform market benchmarks, but performs well during bear markets.
Investors trade too much in experimental markets, harming their wealth.
problem Investors overtrade in artificial markets, leading to poorer outcomes.
method Experimental asset markets with explicit market impact.
result Excessive trading by subjects leads to poorer wealth outcomes.
In this paper we use fuzzy systems theory to convert the technical trading rules commonly used by stock practitioners into excess demand functions which are then used to drive the price dynamics. The technical trading rules are recorded in natural languages where fuzzy words and vague expressions abound. In Part I of t…
We propose a frustrated and disordered many-body model of a stockmarket in which independent adaptive traders can trade a stock subject to the economic law of supply and demand. We show that the typical scaling properties and the correlated volatility arise as a consequence of the collective behavior of agents: With th…
A deterministic trading strategy can be regarded as a signal processing element that uses external information and past prices as inputs and incorporates them into future prices. This paper uses a market maker based method of price formation to study the price dynamics induced by several commonly used financial trading…
This study uses NLP to predict stock performance based on analyst reports.
problem Predicting stock performance using textual information from analyst reports.
method Natural language processing (NLP) and a customized BERT deep learning model for Chinese text.
result Strong positive sentiment in analyst reports increases excess return and intraday volatility, while strong negative sentiment increases volatility and trading volume but decreases excess return.
The study finds a trade-off between model size, test loss, and training loss for linear predictors.
problem Finding the optimal balance between model size, test loss, and training loss for linear predictors.
method Established an algorithm and distribution-independent trade-off using non-asymptotic analysis.
result Models with low test loss are either classical (close to noise level training loss) or modern (large number of parameters).
Paper uses diffusion model to denoise financial time series data.
problem Low signal-to-noise ratio in financial time series data.
method Conditional diffusion model for progressive noise addition and removal.
result Denoised financial time series improve future return classification and trading performance.
Investor-driven information diffusion affects excess comovement in China and the U.S. markets.
problem Investor-driven information diffusion and its impact on excess comovement.
method Cross-sectional analysis of 4,533 Chinese and 4,517 U.S. stocks from 2010 to 2022.
result Retail-driven information diffusion significantly drives excess comovement in China, while institution-driven diffusion is the primary driver in the U.S.
Gradient boosted trees outperform other models in predicting corporate bankruptcy.
problem Predicting financial distress of publicly traded U.S. firms.
method Benchmarked various machine learning models using a comprehensive sample of bankruptcies.
result Gradient boosted trees outperform other models in one-year-ahead forecasts.
In this paper, we study the dynamics of absolute return, trading volume and bid-ask spread after the trading halts using high-frequency data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We deal with all three types of trading halts, namely intraday halts, one-day halts and inter-day halts, of 203 stocks in Shanghai Stock Exchange…
Studying Binomial and Gaussian return dynamics in discrete time, we show how excess volatility can be traded to create growth. We test our results on real world data to confirm the observed model phenomena while also highlighting implicit risks.
This work analyzes fairness-accuracy trade-offs using causal methods.
problem Discriminatory behavior in machine learning systems based on sensitive characteristics.
method Introduces path-specific excess loss (PSEL) and causal fairness/utility ratio to quantify trade-offs.
result Shows how enforcing fairness constraints can reduce discrimination while increasing loss.
This paper introduces Libra to analyze and optimize generalization in Federated Learning.
problem Inconsistent local optima in Federated Learning lead to poor generalization performance.
method Introduces Libra, a generalization dynamics analysis framework for algorithm-dependent excess risk minimization.
result Libra highlights the trade-offs between model stability and gradient norms in Federated Learning.
AI-Trader benchmarks LLMs in live financial markets, revealing poor trading performance.
problem Challenges in real-time financial decision-making by autonomous agents.
method Fully automated, live evaluation benchmark with minimal human intervention.
result General intelligence does not translate to effective trading, highlighting limitations.
A simple trading model based on pair pattern strategy space with holding periods is proposed. Power-law behaviors are observed for the return variance σ2, the price impact H and the predictability K for both models with linear and square root impact functions. The sum of the traders' wealth displays a positive v…
DEX allows HFTs to quickly acquire speed, improving price discovery without sacrificing liquidity.
problem Low-latency trading's externality and resource inefficiency in centralized exchanges.
method Model of decentralized exchanges with real-time speed acquisition from peer-to-peer networks.
result HFTs on DEX acquire more speed for shorter timespans, decreasing price discovery time and reducing resource lock-in.
Dynamic risk constraints help limit risky behavior in financial portfolios.
problem Static risk measures fail to control tail-risk-seeking traders.
method Introduces dynamic risk constraints applied throughout the trading horizon.
result Dynamic risk constraints can effectively limit risky behavior in portfolios.
This research uses reinforcement learning to find optimal emission offsets in greenhouse gas markets.
problem Finding optimal emission offsets in greenhouse gas markets to control excess emissions.
method Utilized reinforcement learning, specifically Nash-DQN, to estimate market Nash equilibria.
result Emitting firms can achieve significant financial savings by abiding by the Nash equilibria found in the market.
Short-term incentives lead to riskier trading strategies.
problem Optimal execution with performance barriers.
method Analyzes the impact of short-term performance incentives on trading behavior.
result Short-term incentives result in more aggressive but less risky trading strategies in the short term, but poorer performance over long periods.
We study trade-based manipulation of stock prices from the perspective of complex trading networks constructed by using detailed information of trades. A stock trading network consists of nodes and directed links, where every trader is a node and a link is formed from one trader to the other if the former sells shares …
Algorithm of multicurrency trading at the market of Forex is realized on the basis of nonlinear stochastic wavelets. The distinctive feature of the algorithm is the possibility of weakly- and strongly connected horizontal self-assemblies, as well as use of nested structures. On-line trading with eight currency couples …
We introduce a trade strategy representation theorem for performance measurement and portable alpha in high frequency trading, by embedding a robust trading algorithm that describe portfolio manager market timing behavior, in a canonical multifactor asset pricing model. First, we present a spectral test for market timi…
Study shows how to balance memory and learning efficiency in continual learning.
problem Balancing memory and learning efficiency in continual learning.
method Structural regularization with Hessian-based regularization.
result Structural regularization improves statistical performance at the cost of increased memory complexity.
A new model handles zero durations in financial transactions, distinguishing between split and standard transactions.
problem Modeling discrete trade durations with excessive zeros and split transactions.
method Zero-inflated autoregressive conditional duration model based on zero-inflated negative binomial distribution.
result Split transactions cause most zero and close-to-zero durations.
AI agents in experimental markets exhibit behavioral patterns that aggregate into market dynamics.
problem Understanding AI trading behavior and its impact on market dynamics.
method Experimental asset markets populated by AI agents trained on Large Language Models (LLMs).
result AI agents' behavior leads to market dynamics similar to human traders, including bubbles.
We consider the problem of learning convex aggregation of models, that is as good as the best convex aggregation, for the binary classification problem. Working in the stream based active learning setting, where the active learner has to make a decision on-the-fly, if it wants to query for the label of the point curren…
This paper optimizes portfolios using path signatures, revealing trade-offs and structural results.
problem Optimizing portfolios using path signatures and estimating their expected values.
method Path Portfolio Optimization framework, using linear functionals of signature coordinates and truncated tensor algebra.
result Empirical findings show a dimensional trade-off in portfolio optimization, with gains in the symmetric block.
Reinforcement learning crypto agent achieves high returns on Bitcoin derivatives.
problem Maximizing returns on volatile cryptocurrency markets.
method Online transfer learning with an echo state network and recurrent reinforcement learning.
result Achieves a total return of 350%, net of transaction costs, over five years.
Model predicts capital flow and product share dynamics in international trade.
problem Understanding how capital flows between different industrial sectors affects product shares in international trade.
method Stochastic transfer model based on observed scaling relations.
result Model accurately predicts the distribution of product shares and identifies capital condensation.
We develop a theoretical trading conditioning model subject to price volatility and return information in terms of market psychological behavior, based on analytical transaction volume-price probability wave distributions in which we use transaction volume probability to describe price volatility uncertainty and intens…
Maximal extractable value in CFMMs can degrade or improve routing quality, with reordering MEV showing logarithmic impact.
problem Maximal extractable value in constant function market makers (CFMMs) and its impact on routing quality.
method Game theoretic analysis of MEV in CFMMs, constructing price of anarchy and analyzing reordering MEV.
result Conditions under which reordering MEV shows logarithmic impact, and implications for MEV searchers and CFMM designers.
Develops a new flexible grid trading model using ANN and SSO.
problem Improving automated trading strategies in financial markets.
method Combines SSO algorithm with ANN for optimizing trading parameters.
result Provides a robust and efficient trading model with better returns.
Two models predict similar high-frequency price dynamics but differ in low-frequency impact strength.
problem Understanding the relationship between market prices and fundamental information.
method Comparing a microfounded linear model with a data-driven model at high and low frequencies.
result Both models predict similar high-frequency price dynamics but differ in low-frequency impact strength.
Market crowd trading behavior and volume impact stock prices in China.
problem Little known about the role of trading volume in market behavior.
method Adaptive hypotheses tested on Chinese stock market data.
result Market crowd trades efficiently and achieves agreement on prices.
We introduce a stochastic heterogeneous interacting-agent model for the short-time non-equilibrium evolution of excess demand and price in a stylized asset market. We consider a combination of social interaction within peer groups and individually heterogeneous fundamentalist trading decisions which take into account t…
Study finds it hard to establish common factor pricing in corporate bonds.
problem Difficulty in establishing common factor pricing in corporate bonds.
method Portfolio- and bond-level analyses using multifactor models.
result Common factor pricing in corporate bonds is not significantly explanatory.
Sparse portfolio strategy from mutual funds' favorite stocks in China A share market.
problem Building a sparse portfolio from mutual funds' favorite stocks in a market with limited fund information.
method Analyzed mutual fund favorite stocks, used portfolio optimizer with constraints, and compared different methods.
result Sparse portfolios consistently outperform the benchmark index 930950.CSI.
SGD in linear regression overfits but performs well due to bias-variance trade-off.
problem Understanding overfitting in SGD for linear regression.
method Constant-stepsize SGD with iterate averaging or tail averaging, analyzing full eigenspectrum of data covariance matrix.
result Sharp excess risk bounds revealing bias-variance decomposition for SGD in linear regression.
The paper derives market-based correlations between asset prices and returns.
problem Market assumptions of constant trade volumes and past values are inaccurate.
method Derives expressions of correlations based on statistical moments and trade volumes.
result Market-based correlations are essential for traders, banks, and funds.
Bayesian hierarchical tensor factorization model for international trade flows
problem Sparse semi-continuous tensor data modeling
method Bayesian hierarchical tensor factorization with Poisson and Gamma models
result Identifies multiway dependence in trade flows
Crypto simulations show HODL strategy loads risk onto most investors, with macro-sentiment affecting returns.
problem Understanding real risk-return trade-offs and factors affecting crypto returns.
method Two independent analyses: 480 million Monte Carlo simulations and Bayesian multi-horizon local projection framework.
result HODL strategy exposes most investors to extreme downside risk, and macro-sentiment conditions are dominant indicators for future outcomes.
Hour-Aware Adaptive Risk Management for Autonomous Memecoin Trading
problem Autonomous memecoin trading system performance
method Hour-of-day effects, filter precision, fragility
result 40.5% win rate, mean per-trade return of +0.62%, cumulative +117.7%
Paper proposes a new trading strategy using corporate event detection from news articles.
problem Predicting stock movements based on corporate events from news articles.
method Bi-level event detection model: low-level for token-level event identification, high-level for article-level event identification.
result The proposed strategy outperforms existing models in stock prediction metrics.