We prove that Pareto theory of circulation of elites results from our wealth evolution model, Kelly criterion for optimal betting and Keynes' observation of "animal spirits" that drive the economy and cause that human financial decisions are prone to excess risk-taking.
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48 results for “excessive risk-taking”
Dynamic risk constraints help limit risky behavior in financial portfolios.
problem Static risk measures fail to control tail-risk-seeking traders.
method Introduces dynamic risk constraints applied throughout the trading horizon.
result Dynamic risk constraints can effectively limit risky behavior in portfolios.
Short-term incentives lead to riskier trading strategies.
problem Optimal execution with performance barriers.
method Analyzes the impact of short-term performance incentives on trading behavior.
result Short-term incentives result in more aggressive but less risky trading strategies in the short term, but poorer performance over long periods.
Study on investment strategy for agents with periodic preferences and discounting.
problem Investment decisions by agents with periodic S-shaped preferences and present bias.
method Infinite-horizon, continuous-time portfolio selection problem with quasi-hyperbolic discounting.
result Time-consistent planning strategy can be formulated as an equilibrium to a static mean field game.
A Game of Competition for Riskq-fin.CP
Models analyze strategic risk-taking in continuous action games.
problem Strategic risk-taking dynamics in continuous action games.
method Normal form game, multi-player scenarios, regret minimization algorithms, numerical algorithm for calculation.
result Nash equilibrium also serves as a correlated equilibrium in continuous games.
Study optimal reward schemes for inducing desired player performance in risky contests.
problem Designing optimal rewards to encourage desired performance levels in risky contests.
method Analyzed the optimal reward schemes for inducing average and specific rank performance.
result Optimal reward schemes can have surprising shapes, not just related to inequality.
We propose a mathematical model of momentum risk-taking, which is essentially real-time risk management focused on short-term volatility of stock markets. Its implementation, our fully automated momentum equity trading system presented systematically, proved to be successful in extensive historical and real-time experi…
This paper investigates, from information theoretic grounds, a learning problem based on the principle that any regularity in a given dataset can be exploited to extract compact features from data, i.e., using fewer bits than needed to fully describe the data itself, in order to build meaningful representations of a re…
Modeling and Interpreting Real-world Human Risk Decision Making with Inverse Reinforcement Learningcs.LG
We model human decision-making behaviors in a risk-taking task using inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) for the purposes of understanding real human decision making under risk. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work applying IRL to reveal the implicit reward function in human risk-taking decision making…
Traders and investors involved in an option contract having the underlying stock in range bound are likely to lose their initial investment. Timing in buying an option contract is of capital importance. In a recent article [1] the hypothesis of range bound market is used in conjunction to Black-Scholes equation to find…
Prompted by a recent experiment by Victor Haghani and Richard Dewey, this note generalises the Kelly strategy (optimal for simple investment games with log utility) to a large class of practical utility functions and including the effect of extraneous wealth. A counterintuitive result is proved : for any continuous, co…
Study optimal portfolio for households with two goals: random and fixed deadlines.
problem Optimal portfolio choice for households managing random and fixed deadlines.
method Maximizes weighted sum of probabilities of funding both goals in a Black-Scholes market.
result Non-monotonic value function due to interaction between goals under forced funding.
This paper proposes a definition of system health in the context of multiple agents optimizing a joint reward function. We use this definition as a credit assignment term in a policy gradient algorithm to distinguish the contributions of individual agents to the global reward. The health-informed credit assignment is t…
We develop a framework for interacting with uncertain environments in reinforcement learning (RL) by leveraging preferences in the form of utility functions. We claim that there is value in considering different risk measures during learning. In this framework, the preference for risk can be tuned by variation of the p…
Improved fMRI analysis models enhance classification performance and select relevant brain regions.
problem Inaccurate selection of relevant brain components in MVPA models.
method Hybrid Sparsity-Ranked LASSO (JSRL) method integrating component-level and voxel-level activity.
result JSRL models achieve up to 51.7% improvement in cross-validated deviance and 7.3% improvement in cross-validated AUC.
Investor-driven information diffusion affects excess comovement in China and the U.S. markets.
problem Investor-driven information diffusion and its impact on excess comovement.
method Cross-sectional analysis of 4,533 Chinese and 4,517 U.S. stocks from 2010 to 2022.
result Retail-driven information diffusion significantly drives excess comovement in China, while institution-driven diffusion is the primary driver in the U.S.
Mathematical study of excess growth rate connects info theory with finance.
problem Understanding the excess growth rate in portfolio theory.
method Axiomatic characterization theorems of excess growth rate in terms of relative entropy, Jensen's inequality gap, and logarithmic divergence.
result Established rich connections between information theory and finance.
In statistical learning theory, convex surrogates of the 0-1 loss are highly preferred because of the computational and theoretical virtues that convexity brings in. This is of more importance if we consider smooth surrogates as witnessed by the fact that the smoothness is further beneficial both computationally- by at…
New tool detects 'fleeting modes' causing excess risk in financial markets.
problem Detecting portfolios with statistically significant excess risk in financial markets.
method Random Matrix Theory to identify 'fleeting modes' independent of underlying correlation structure.
result Fleeting modes exist in both futures and equity markets, and momentum is a source of excess risk.
The paper explores the information-theoretic nature of excess risk in machine learning.
problem Understanding the excess risk in machine learning models.
method Formulates the minimax excess risk as a zero-sum game and modifies it to allow swapping of the order of play.
result Proves that under certain conditions, the duality gap is zero, allowing for the application of Bayesian results to provide bounds on minimax excess risk.
Study excess capacity in neural networks using Rademacher complexity.
problem Understanding how much capacity deep networks have beyond what's needed for classification.
method Unified Rademacher complexity bounds for function composition and convolutional layers, considering Lipschitz constants and initialization norms.
result There is substantial excess capacity per task, and capacity can be kept similar across different tasks.
A new formula reveals symmetries between mean excess and ES functions.
problem Optimizing risk measures in financial models.
method Established a reverse ES optimization formula.
result Reveals elegant symmetries and relationships between mean excess and ES functions.
A Geometric Analysis of PCAmath.ST
The paper analyzes the excess risk of PCA and provides a precise characterization.
problem Understanding the excess risk of principal component analysis (PCA).
method Established a central limit theorem for PCA error and derived the excess risk distribution.
result Obtained a non-asymptotic upper bound on the excess risk of PCA.
Study excess risk in statistical inference with transformations.
problem Excess risk in estimating random variables from feature vectors and transformations.
method Characterize lossless transformations, develop test statistics, and information-theoretic bounds.
result Strongly consistent partitioning test statistic for lossless transformations.
Study nonconcave portfolio choice with smooth ambiguity and Bayesian learning.
problem Nonconcave portfolio choice under smooth ambiguity and Bayesian learning.
method Developed a general framework for dynamic, non-concave asset allocation.
result Dynamic consistency achieved through a robust representation.
Research identifies four motivational groups for crypto-metaverse landowners.
problem Understanding motivations of retail investors in the crypto-metaverse.
method Detailed financial behavior survey and principal components analysis.
result Four distinct motivational groups identified: Aesthetics, Social, Speculation, Innovation.
We use a continuous-time random walk (CTRW) to model market fluctuation data from times when traders experience excessive losses or excessive profits. We analytically derive "superstatistics" that accurately model empirical market activity data (supplied by Bogachev, Ludescher, Tsallis, and Bunde)that exhibit transitio…
Proponents of behavioral finance have identified several "puzzles" in the market that are inconsistent with rational finance theory. One such puzzle is the "excess volatility puzzle". Changes in equity prices are too large given changes in the fundamentals that are expected to change equity prices. In this paper, we of…
The paper analyzes competition among fund managers using excess logarithmic returns and constructs games to find optimal allocations.
problem Optimal allocation strategies among fund managers considering excess logarithmic returns.
method Constructs both -player and mean field games to address the competition problem.
result The MFE of the MFG represents the limit of -player game's equilibrium as approaches infinity.
Currency volatility shocks predict lower excess returns, and buying weak transmitters outperforms selling strong ones.
problem Predicting currency returns using volatility shocks.
method Constructed a dynamic, directed network of volatility connections using option-implied volatilities.
result Currencies that transmit more volatility shocks earn lower excess returns.
Optimizes gradual reduction of excess carbon emissions to net-zero.
problem Achieving net-zero carbon emissions through gradual reduction of excess emissions.
method Stochastic control approach to identify optimal emission strategy under constraints.
result Identifies the emission strategy that maximizes future profit from excess emissions.
Survival analysis models predict economic convergence across Americas.
problem Analyzing GDP per capita trajectories and convergence across the Americas.
method Survival analysis, machine learning, economic interpretation.
result DeepSurv captures non-linear interactions in GDP per capita trajectories.
We derive asset pricing formula for markets with incomplete information and subjective views.
problem Asset pricing in markets with informational imperfections and subjective investor beliefs.
method Closed-form market equilibrium formula based on Merton's model, non-linear system of equations, conditional posterior distribution.
result Derivation of market reference model for excess returns under random shadow-costs.
Local SGD proves efficient in overparameterized linear regression.
problem Efficiently learning overparameterized linear models in distributed settings.
method Distributed SGD (DSGD) with overparameterized models.
result Excess risk of SGD is smaller than ridge regression in the same sample complexity.
Trading behavior and excess volatility in toy marketscond-mat.stat-mech
We study the relation between the trading behavior of agents and volatility in toy markets of adaptive inductively rational agents. We show that excess volatility, in such simplified markets, arises as a consequence of {\em i)} the neglect of market impact implicit in price taking behavior and of {\em ii)} excessive re…
The study classifies cellular pseudomanifolds and their properties.
problem Understanding the structure of cellular pseudomanifolds.
method Analyzing the combinatorial and geometric properties of cellular pseudomanifolds.
result Complete classification of cellular pseudomanifolds with excess < 2, and progress towards excess 2.
Sharp stability of Alexandrov's theorem for domains in the small-excess regime
problem Stability of Alexandrov's theorem for domains in the small-excess regime
method Combines a version of Fuglede's spectral-gap argument, a star-shaped rearrangement for sets of finite perimeter, quantitative estimates for the part of the boundary contained in the tentacles, and a polyhedral approximation argument for the non-graphical region
result Sharp stability estimate in a genuinely non-parametric regime
Study on excess mortality in Germany during 2020-21.
problem Analyzing excess mortality during the pandemic in Germany.
method Empirical study using official death counts.
result Provided conclusions for insurance businesses.
New method estimates model risk without knowing function class.
problem Evaluating model risk for complex, opaque models.
method Wild refitting with Bregman losses and randomized symmetrization.
result Valid upper bound on excess risk for opaque models.
AlphaMLDigger predicts excess returns in fluctuating markets.
problem Mining effective information for investment decisions in a volatile market.
method Two-phase approach using deep NLP for sentiment analysis and ensemble ML models.
result Ensemble models achieve 0.984 accuracy, significantly outperforming baseline.
News attention to financial intermediaries and crises predicts excess bond premium and macroeconomic movements.
problem Drivers of the excess bond premium (EBP).
method News attention to 180 topics captures up to 80% of EBP variation and forecasts macroeconomic movements.
result News attention to financial intermediaries and crises drives up the EBP and predicts macroeconomic downturns.
The paper bounds the excess risk of deep neural networks for weakly dependent processes.
problem Learning with weakly dependent data using deep neural networks.
method Approximation of smooth functions by deep neural networks and a bound on excess risk.
result The excess risk bound for deep learning under weak dependence is close to for sufficiently smooth functions.
Study non-asymptotic bounds for robust estimators under misspecified models.
problem Evaluate performance of robust estimators under adversarial conditions.
method Propose a general approach to adversarial risk analysis, including investigations on generalization and approximation errors.
result Establish non-asymptotic upper bounds for adversarial excess risk under Lipschitz loss functions.
Paper introduces a novel measure to analyze excess error in classification under covariate shift.
problem Analyzing excess error in classification under covariate shift.
method Utilizes vicinity information to characterize excess error.
result Faster or competitive convergence rates compared to previous techniques.
Non-Euclidean Differentially Private Stochastic Convex Optimization: Optimal Rates in Linear Timecs.LG
New algorithm achieves optimal privacy and efficiency in non-Euclidean convex optimization.
problem Optimizing convex functions while maintaining privacy in non-Euclidean settings.
method Developed a linear-time algorithm for -setups, leveraging geometric properties.
result Optimal excess risk achieved in linear time for .
The paper simplifies arguments for stationary varifolds results.
problem Height bound and Lipschitz approximation for stationary varifolds.
method Simpler arguments to obtain height bound and Lipschitz approximation.
result Excess decay as a consequence of height bound and Lipschitz approximation.
This paper analyzes multi-pass SGD for least squares, improving generalization bounds.
problem Improving generalization bounds for multi-pass SGD in the least squares problem.
method Develops an instance-dependent excess risk bound for least squares in the interpolation regime.
result SGD performs worse than GD instance-wise but saves computational time.
In the world of modern financial theory, portfolio construction has traditionally operated under at least one of two central assumptions: the constraints are derived from a utility function and/or the multivariate probability distribution of the underlying asset returns is fully known. In practice, both the performance…