The balance property is crucial for insurance pricing, ensuring total actuarial price equals loss. Maximum likelihood GLMs fulfill it, but Lindholm-Wüthrich suggests three methods, with constrained GLM being superior.
problem Ensuring the balance property in insurance pricing models
method Using constrained GLM fitting
result Constrained GLM fitting is superior to the two previously discussed balance correction methods
The paper analyzes fairness of compensation-based risk-sharing schemes for fund payouts.
problem Fair allocation of payouts in an endowment contingency fund.
method Analyzes two types of administrators and general non-negative loss distributions.
result General conditions for actuarial fairness are provided.
In the knowledge that the ex-post performance of Markowitz efficient portfolios is inferior to that implied ex-ante, we make two contributions to the portfolio selection literature. Firstly, we propose a methodology to identify the region of risk-expected return space where ex-post performance matches ex-ante estimates…
This paper investigates how realized and option implied volatilities are related to the future quantiles of commodity returns. Whereas realized volatility measures ex-post uncertainty, volatility implied by option prices reveals the market's expectation and is often used as an ex-ante measure of the investor sentiment.…
Study analyzes financial intermediation costs in decentralized lending protocols.
problem Understanding the cost of financial intermediation in decentralized lending protocols.
method Analysis of publicly available data on rates, supply, borrow activity, and accounts.
result Ex-post margins are 1% and lower for stablecoin markets.
New method separates model and non-model risks for more practical asset pricing.
problem Asset pricing under model-uncertainty.
method Binary model-risks and constraints over preferences; unique model-risk pricing formula.
result Unique model-risk pricing formula with dynamically conserved constant.
New tool detects 'fleeting modes' causing excess risk in financial markets.
problem Detecting portfolios with statistically significant excess risk in financial markets.
method Random Matrix Theory to identify 'fleeting modes' independent of underlying correlation structure.
result Fleeting modes exist in both futures and equity markets, and momentum is a source of excess risk.
A framework for anonymized risk sharing without revealing identities or preferences.
problem Risk sharing without revealing individual identities or preferences.
method Axiomatic framework with four key axioms: actuarial fairness, risk fairness, risk anonymity, and operational anonymity.
result The conditional mean risk sharing rule is uniquely characterized by these axioms.
Paper finds a method to compute fair risk-sharing rules.
problem Finding a fair and understandable risk-sharing rule.
method Established a one-to-one correspondence with a fixed point approach.
result Fast numerical method for computing AFPO risk-sharing rules.
New risk-sharing rules induced by capital allocation principles.
problem Risk sharing in corporate structures.
method Randomizing existing capital allocation principles.
result Derives new risk-sharing rules complementing existing literature.
The paper optimizes risk-sharing in decentralized networks.
problem Optimizing risk-sharing among networked agents.
method Analyzes actuarially fair risk-sharing rules among friends in a network.
result Characterizes the optimal signed linear risk-sharing rule.
A new test evaluates risk estimation accuracy using probability integral transform.
problem Measuring the accuracy of financial market risk estimations.
method Probability Integral Transform (PIT) of ex post realized returns against ex ante probability distributions.
result The new test shows the importance of capturing the dynamic of financial markets.
Paper provides new bounds for risk aggregation and sharing.
problem Quantitative risk management and robust risk aggregation with dependence uncertainty.
method Established new inequality for RVaR, derived extended convolution bounds, and analyzed risk sharing for averaged quantiles.
result Extended convolution bounds for robust risk aggregation and risk sharing, providing sharpness conditions and explicit expressions.
Generalizes risk sharing models to a continuum of agents.
problem Risk sharing among a large number of heterogeneous agents.
method Modeling agents as points in a measure space, using risk measures on a probability space, and deriving dual representations.
result Explicit formulas for specific risk measures (entropic and expected shortfall) and applications to Pareto efficiency.
New risk measures for quantiles under ambiguity improve risk sharing.
problem Risk optimization under ambiguity using quantiles.
method Introducing Choquet quantiles and Choquet Expected Shortfall.
result Optimal allocations for quantile agents under ambiguity.
Study risk sharing among agents with varying risk preferences.
problem Risk sharing among agents with heterogeneous risk measures.
method Derive explicit solutions for inf-convolution and counter-monotonic inf-convolution under varying risk seeking.
result Explicit solutions for inf-convolution and counter-monotonic inf-convolution can be represented by a generalization of distortion risk measures.
The large majority of risk-sharing transactions involve few agents, each of whom can heavily influence the structure and the prices of securities. This paper proposes a game where agents' strategic sets consist of all possible sharing securities and pricing kernels that are consistent with Arrow-Debreu sharing rules. F…
Examines optimal risk sharing with realistic risk attitudes, finding risk seeking in certain subdomains.
problem Optimal risk sharing with empirically realistic risk attitudes.
method Allows for risk-seeking agents, generalizes expected utility, and uses counter-monotonic improvement theorem.
result First empirical results on optimal risk sharing with realistic risk attitudes.
We consider the problem of optimal risk sharing in a pool of cooperative agents. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of the certainty equivalents and risk premia associated with the Pareto optimal risk sharing contract as the pool expands. We first study this problem under expected utility preferences with an objectivel…
The study examines how formal index insurance compares to informal risk sharing in managing natural disasters.
problem The challenges of natural disasters and the effectiveness of index insurance in risk management.
method A three-strategy evolutionary game model to analyze the competitive relationship between formal index insurance, informal risk sharing, and non-insurance.
result Basis risk and loss ratio significantly impact the adoption rate of index insurance, with different strategies preferred under varying conditions.
The paper studies an oligopolistic equilibrium model of financial agents who aim to share their random endowments. The risk-sharing securities and their prices are endogenously determined as the outcome of a strategic game played among all the participating agents. In the complete-market setting, each agent's set of st…
Paper proposes government indemnification for AI risks to solve judgment-proof problem.
problem Uninsurable risks from AI, especially existential risks, create a judgment-proof problem.
method A government-provided, mandatory indemnification program using risk-priced fees and Bayesian Truth Serum.
result The approach better leverages private information and signals risk mitigation efforts.
Study examines risk premium convergence rates in risk sharing contracts.
problem Analyzing risk premium convergence rates in risk sharing contracts.
method Examines the limiting behavior of risk premium associated with Pareto optimal risk sharing contracts under general law-invariant risk measures.
result Risk premium convergence rate is typically n1/2, not n. Extends inf-convolution to countable risk measures for risk sharing.
problem Limited inf-convolution theory to finite sets of risk measures.
method Extends inf-convolution to countable sets, investigates properties and results.
result Generalizes known properties and results to countable case.
Deep neural networks solve optimal risk sharing problems.
problem Optimally sharing financial positions among agents with different risk measures.
method Neural network-based framework to compute inf-convolution and optimal allocations.
result Convergence of neural network approximations to theoretical values.
Optimal risk sharing without convex preferences using aggregate convexity.
problem Risk sharing among non-convex preferences.
method Aggregate convexity principles and Lyapunov convexity, combined with approximation arguments for law invariant risk measures.
result Derivation of a computationally tractable formula for the conjugate of the value function.
The paper addresses risk sharing and variability measures among agents with general risk preferences.
problem Risk sharing and variability measures among agents with general risk preferences.
method Characterizes Pareto-optimal allocations using Gini deviation, mean-median deviation, and inter-quantile difference as variability measures.
result Optimal allocations are not comonotonic and feature a mixture of pairwise counter-monotonic structures.
Study risk sharing with Lambda VaR under diverse beliefs.
problem Risk sharing among agents with different beliefs.
method Use Lambda Value-at-Risk as preference, analyze under heterogeneous beliefs.
result Explicit formulas for risk sharing under various belief scenarios.
Optimal risk sharing found for heterogeneous risk attitudes using distortion risk measures.
problem Risk sharing in economies with diverse risk attitudes.
method Modeling preferences with distortion risk measures, using comonotonic and counter-monotonic principles.
result Optimal risk sharing strategies identified based on risk attitudes, reducing the n-agent problem to a two-agent formulation. Study proposes a tax-based system to share disaster risk among regions.
problem Systemic risk in catastrophic events and insurer insolvency.
method Public-private partnership with government intervention through taxation.
result Taxation system effectively shares residual claims in case of insurer insolvency.
Study examines how EU's Value at Risk constraints affect insurance oligopolies.
problem Impact of EU's Value at Risk constraints on insurance oligopolies.
method Bertrand model with profit-maximizing companies facing Value at Risk constraints.
result Value at Risk constraints can lead to monopolistic premiums or market failure.
Paper investigates Lambda Value-at-Risk under ambiguity and risk sharing.
problem Investigates Lambda Value-at-Risk under ambiguity and risk sharing.
method Establishes equivalence of robust ΛVaR and traditional ΛVaR under ambiguity sets, analyzes properties, derives explicit formulas, and explores risk sharing. result Unified and extended the concept of Value-at-Risk under ambiguity, derived explicit formulas for specific ambiguity sets, and explored risk sharing.
Systemic risk refers to the risk that the financial system is susceptible to failures due to the characteristics of the system itself. The tremendous cost of systemic risk requires the design and implementation of tools for the efficient macroprudential regulation of financial institutions. The current paper proposes a…
Study optimal risk sharing in decentralized peer-to-peer markets with robust risk measures.
problem Optimizing risk sharing in decentralized markets with non-convex risk measures.
method Characterization of Pareto-optimal allocations using robust distortion risk measures and probabilistic risk aversion.
result Shape of allocations depends on agents' tail risk assessments.
A mechanism to share risks and costs with guarantees against extreme outcomes.
problem Softening extreme individual burdens in risk sharing schemes.
method Formalizes Certified Allocation Problem; uses Conformal Risk Sharing with interpretable sharing policy and split conformal calibration.
result Reduces extreme obligations for high-risk agents while controlling harm to others.
Insurance benefits risk sharing for finite mean risks but not for infinite mean risks.
problem The effect of risk sharing and diversification for infinite mean risks.
method Investigation of risk sharing and diversification for infinite mean models, including stable, Pareto, and Fréchet distributions.
result Risk sharing can have a negative effect for infinite mean models, a phenomenon known as the nondiversification trap.
Given the return series for a set of instruments, a \emph{trading strategy} is a switching function that transfers wealth from one instrument to another at specified times. We present efficient algorithms for constructing (ex-post) trading strategies that are optimal with respect to the total return, the Sterling ratio…
We construct a deep portfolio theory. By building on Markowitz's classic risk-return trade-off, we develop a self-contained four-step routine of encode, calibrate, validate and verify to formulate an automated and general portfolio selection process. At the heart of our algorithm are deep hierarchical compositions of p…
Algorithms optimize fair portfolios for diverse risk-tolerant consumers.
problem Designing fair portfolios for consumers with varying risk tolerances.
method Two-player zero-sum game-based algorithms for optimal and near-optimal portfolio design.
result Efficient algorithms for fair portfolio design with and without group structure assumptions.
In this paper we analyze a dynamic recursive extension of the (static) notion of a deviation measure and its properties. We study distribution invariant deviation measures and show that the only dynamic deviation measure which is law invariant and recursive is the variance. We also solve the problem of optimal risk-sha…
Pareto optimal centralized risk sharing with multiple agents
problem Centralized risk sharing with endogenous prices
method Inclusive and fair Pareto optimality
result Equivalence between inclusive and fair Pareto optimality and balanced sequential optimization
Optimizes risk sharing with multiple models under uncertainty.
problem Risk sharing with multiple models under ambiguity.
method Constructs a mean-variance criterion using chi-squared divergence, adapts monotone preferences, and uses dual representation.
result Characterizes optimal risk sharing contract and agent's wealth process.
Optimal insurance contract limits insurer's risk exposure variance.
problem Designing an optimal insurance contract limiting insurer's risk exposure variance.
method Derive optimal policy semi-analytically, focusing on actuarially fair case.
result Expected coverage is larger for wealthier insured, indicating normal good.
The paper explores how to fairly share longevity risk among participants of tontine schemes.
problem Fair distribution of longevity risk among participants with varying wealth and health.
method Develops a modeling framework for sharing benefits among survivors in tontine schemes.
result There are multiple ways to share longevity risk, depending on social cohesion.
We consider the risk sharing problem for capital requirements induced by capital adequacy tests and security markets. The agents involved in the sharing procedure may be heterogeneous in that they apply varying capital adequacy tests and have access to different security markets. We discuss conditions under which there…
Corporate bond factor research is flawed due to measurement errors and ex-post filtering.
problem Replication crisis in corporate bond factor research.
method Analysis of 108 signals across nine thematic clusters, correction of transaction prices and return filtering.
result Majority of previously documented factors do not produce statistically significant alphas after correction.
The paper studies risk-sharing allocations for risk-seeking agents using a common distortion risk measure.
problem Characterizing Pareto-optimal risk-sharing allocations for risk-seeking agents.
method Modeling preferences with a common distortion risk measure and analyzing three settings: risk-averse, risk-seeking, and inverse S-shaped distortion.
result Pareto-optimal allocations for risk-seeking agents are counter-monotonic, not comonotonic.
Study finds risk sharing without convexity assumptions.
problem Finding fair risk allocations among agents with heterogeneous beliefs.
method Combines local comonotone improvement with Dieudonné-type argument.
result Existence of Pareto optima without convexity assumption.