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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

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123245368490 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for evidence lower bound

Variational inference is a powerful tool for approximate inference. However, it mainly focuses on the evidence lower bound as variational objective and the development of other measures for variational inference is a promising area of research. This paper proposes a robust modification of evidence and a lower bound for…

2016-11-28abs ↗pdf ↗

The standard interpretation of importance-weighted autoencoders is that they maximize a tighter lower bound on the marginal likelihood than the standard evidence lower bound. We give an alternate interpretation of this procedure: that it optimizes the standard variational lower bound, but using a more complex distribut…

2017-04-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Stochastic variational inference (SVI) plays a key role in Bayesian deep learning. Recently various divergences have been proposed to design the surrogate loss for variational inference. We present a simple upper bound of the evidence as the surrogate loss. This evidence upper bound (EUBO) equals to the log marginal li…

2019-12-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Revisits Gaussian process model with spherical harmonics for scalable deep learning.

problem Scaling Gaussian process models to large input dimensions with high frequency learning.
method Introduces new kernels related to deep models, variational learning of spherical harmonic phases, and sparseness in eigenbasis.
result Enables scaling to larger input dimensions and learning of high frequency variations.

We investigate the use of alternative divergences to Kullback-Leibler (KL) in variational inference(VI), based on the Variational Dropout \cite{kingma2015}. Stochastic gradient variational Bayes (SGVB) \cite{aevb} is a general framework for estimating the evidence lower bound (ELBO) in Variational Bayes. In this work, …

2017-11-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Recent work in unsupervised representation learning has focused on learning deep directed latent-variable models. Fitting these models by maximizing the marginal likelihood or evidence is typically intractable, thus a common approximation is to maximize the evidence lower bound (ELBO) instead. However, maximum likeliho…

2017-11-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Gaussian processes (GP) provide a prior over functions and allow finding complex regularities in data. Gaussian processes are successfully used for classification/regression problems and dimensionality reduction. In this work we consider the classification problem only. The complexity of standard methods for GP-classif…

2016-11-18abs ↗pdf ↗

New SQ lower bounds show learning mixtures of bounded covariance Gaussians is hard.

problem Learning mixtures of Gaussians with bounded covariance matrices is hard.
method Statistical Query (SQ) lower bounds.
result Any SQ algorithm requires complexity at least dΩ(1/ε)d^{Ω(1/ε)} for learning mixtures of bounded covariance Gaussians.

This paper improves SAM by reformulating it as a bilevel optimization problem.

problem Improving Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM) for better performance.
method Reformulate SAM as a bilevel optimization problem using a 0-1 loss surrogate.
result BiSAM consistently results in improved performance compared to SAM and its variants.

Paper conjectures Links-Gould invariant generalizes Alexander polynomial.

problem Classifying knots and links using the Links-Gould invariant.
method Analyzing classical properties of the Links-Gould invariant.
result Evidence suggests Links-Gould invariant provides lower bounds for genus and fiberedness criteria.

Improved lower bounds for faithful linear representations of mapping class groups.

problem Finding the minimum dimension of faithful linear representations of mapping class groups.
method Using finer study of commutation relations and specific pants decompositions to show representations must kill certain subgroups.
result Established lower bounds of 4g34g - 3 for faithful representations of mapping class groups of genus g7g \ge 7.

LPF provides formal guarantees for aggregating multi-evidence in probabilistic tasks.

problem Lack of formal guarantees for multi-evidence reasoning in AI.
method LPF uses variational autoencoders and Sum-Product Networks to aggregate evidence items.
result Proves multiple formal guarantees including calibration preservation and error decay.

New method learns complex, multimodal distributions in ADVI.

problem Learning unimodal approximate posteriors limits ADVI's ability to capture complex data structures.
method Use stratified sampling to allow mixture distributions as approximate posteriors, derive a tighter evidence lower bound.
result SIWAE objective allows ADVI to learn more complex, multimodal distributions, improving accuracy and calibration.

In the context of sparse principal component detection, we bring evidence towards the existence of a statistical price to pay for computational efficiency. We measure the performance of a test by the smallest signal strength that it can detect and we propose a computationally efficient method based on semidefinite prog…

2013-04-03abs ↗pdf ↗

When used as a surrogate objective for maximum likelihood estimation in latent variable models, the evidence lower bound (ELBO) produces state-of-the-art results. Inspired by this, we consider the extension of the ELBO to a family of lower bounds defined by a particle filter's estimator of the marginal likelihood, the …

2017-05-25abs ↗pdf ↗

The study establishes SQ lower bounds for learning halfspaces and ReLUs under Gaussian marginals.

problem Agnostically learning halfspaces and ReLUs under Gaussian marginals.
method Statistical Query (SQ) lower bounds analysis.
result Proves SQ lower bounds of dpoly(1/ε)d^{\mathrm{poly}(1/ε)} for both problems.

We offer a novel view of AdaBoost in a statistical setting. We propose a Bayesian model for binary classification in which label noise is modeled hierarchically. Using variational inference to optimize a dynamic evidence lower bound, we derive a new boosting-like algorithm called VIBoost. We show its close connections …

2012-09-10abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithm for shareable arms with load-dependent rewards in stochastic bandits.

problem Learning optimal play strategy with shareable finite-capacity arms in stochastic bandits.
method Developed a capacity estimator and online learning algorithm for MP-MAB with shareable arms.
result Regret upper bound matches the lower bound, validating the algorithm's performance.

A new diffusion model tackles brightness issues with a probabilistic approach.

problem Brightness-related limitations in diffusion models.
method Introduces a novel diffusion model with a probabilistic framework, modifying both forward and reverse diffusion processes.
result The model mitigates brightness-related limitations and improves performance in high-dimensional settings.

Variational Bayes (VB) has become a widely-used tool for Bayesian inference in statistics and machine learning. Nonetheless, the development of the existing VB algorithms is so far generally restricted to the case where the variational parameter space is Euclidean, which hinders the potential broad application of VB me…

2019-08-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Online method for state estimation and parameter learning in SSMs.

problem State estimation and parameter learning in state-space models.
method Stochastic gradient optimization of variational lower bound, using backward decompositions and Bellman recursions.
result Ability to operate online without revisiting historic observations.

Linear independence testing is a fundamental information-theoretic and statistical problem that can be posed as follows: given nn points {(Xi,Yi)}i=1n\{(X_i,Y_i)\}^n_{i=1} from a p+qp+q dimensional multivariate distribution where XiRpX_i \in \mathbb{R}^p and YiRqY_i \in\mathbb{R}^q, determine whether aTXa^T X and bTYb^T Y are uncorrela…

2016-01-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) is introduced to expand the commonly used analytic variational distribution family, by mixing the variational parameter with a flexible distribution. This mixing distribution can assume any density function, explicit or not, as long as independent random samples can be generat…

2018-05-28abs ↗pdf ↗

We present the first framework for Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes when the temporal data appear in the form of panel counts. Panel count data frequently arise when experimental subjects are observed only at discrete time points and only the numbers of occurrences of the events between subsequent observati…

2018-03-12abs ↗pdf ↗

New SQ lower bound shows complexity nearly matches known upper bound for smoothed agnostic learning.

problem Smoothed agnostic learning of halfspaces under subgaussian distributions.
method Statistical Query (SQ) lower bound using moment-matching hard distribution and linear programming duality.
result First non-trivial lower bound on complexity nearly matches known upper bound.

New evidence shows computational barriers in graphon estimation using low-degree polynomials.

problem Estimating graphons efficiently and accurately.
method Low-degree polynomials to analyze computational limits.
result Low-degree polynomial estimators cannot significantly outperform USVT in graphon estimation.

We introduce the thermodynamic variational objective (TVO) for learning in both continuous and discrete deep generative models. The TVO arises from a key connection between variational inference and thermodynamic integration that results in a tighter lower bound to the log marginal likelihood than the standard variatio…

2019-06-28abs ↗pdf ↗

The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the posterior distribution arising from the Poisson model with a Gaussian prior. This is…

2017-09-18abs ↗pdf ↗

New method explains computational barriers in high-dimensional statistical models.

problem Understanding detection-recovery gaps in high-dimensional inference.
method Combining algorithmic contiguity and cross-validation reduction to obtain conditional computational lower bounds.
result Mild control of low-degree advantage is sufficient to explain computational barriers for recovery.

Variational inference (VI) is widely used as an efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo. It posits a family of approximating distributions qq and finds the closest member to the exact posterior pp. Closeness is usually measured via a divergence D(qp)D(q || p) from qq to pp. While successful, this approach al…

2016-11-01abs ↗pdf ↗