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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

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326597129 · Oct 201919922001200920182026
48 results for event areas

Deep learning models combine text and time-series data for better taxi demand forecasts.

problem Accurate taxi demand forecasting in event areas.
method Two deep learning architectures using word embeddings, convolutional layers, and attention mechanisms.
result The models significantly reduce forecast error by fusing text and time-series data.

Bayesian tensor network reduces conditional probability calculation to polynomial time.

problem Exponential cost of calculating conditional probabilities for multiple events.
method Bayesian tensor network (BTN) with polynomial complexity.
result Competitive performance in image recognition with simple tree structures.

Study improves crash rate forecasting in Washington, D.C. using stochastic volatility model.

problem Forecasting crash rates in areas with irregular traffic patterns and exogenous events.
method Adopted a stochastic volatility model to capture heterogeneity and temporal instability.
result The stochastic volatility model outperforms conventional models in forecasting crash rates in Washington, D.C.

We uniquely and explicitly reconstruct the instantaneous intrinsic metric of the Kerr-Newman Event Horizon from the spectrum of its Laplacian. In the process we find that the angular momentum parameter, radius, area; and in the uncharged case, mass, can be written in terms of these eigenvalues. In the uncharged case th…

2005-09-28abs ↗pdf ↗

This expository paper, based on a Current Events Bulletin talk at the January, 2016 Joint Meetings, introduces the concept of Lyapunov exponents and discusses the role they play in three areas: smooth ergodic theory, Teichmüller theory, and the spectral theory of one-frequency Schrödinger operators. The inspiration for…

2016-08-09abs ↗pdf ↗

The aim of process discovery, originating from the area of process mining, is to discover a process model based on business process execution data. A majority of process discovery techniques relies on an event log as an input. An event log is a static source of historical data capturing the execution of a business proc…

2017-04-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper evaluates CRPS for extreme event forecasts, finding it unsuitable.

problem Verifying probabilistic forecasts of extreme events is challenging.
method Formal framework using extreme value theory to assess CRPS as a random variable.
result CRPS is unsuitable for extreme event verification.

Bayesian model predicts public transport usage during events.

problem Difficulty in predicting transportation disruptions during special events.
method Bayesian additive model with Gaussian process components, using smart card records and web data.
result Model outperforms baselines by up to 26% in R2 and explains individual event components.

Paper predicts urban dispersal events using deep survival analysis on mobility data.

problem Predicting abnormal dispersal events in urban areas to mitigate congestion and safety risks.
method Formulated as a survival analysis problem, developed a two-stage deep learning framework (DILSA).
result DILSA predicts dispersal events with F1-score of 0.7 and average time error of 18 minutes.

Models predict fire and other emergencies in Edmonton.

problem Accurate prediction of emergency events for timely response.
method Data collection, descriptive analysis, feature selection, and negative binomial regression.
result Models perform well, with acceptable prediction errors for weekly and monthly periods.

Study investigates micro-event detection on FLOSS version releases from Stack Overflow.

problem Detecting micro-events in FLOSS version release events from textual messages.
method Developed pipelines using LDA topic modeling, hSBM topics, and sentiment analysis; optimized feature spaces with RFECV; evaluated models with statistical analysis.
result Found characteristic changes in topics or sentiment features before or after FLOSS version releases.

Few-shot models detect tweets in emerging disasters efficiently.

problem Detecting relevant tweets in emerging disaster events is challenging.
method Few-shot models (matching networks and prototypical networks) are used to detect tweets in emerging disaster events.
result Few-shot models can generalize to unseen classes with a small amount of examples.

A new framework for mining high utility patterns in interval-based sequences.

problem Mining patterns in events that persist over varying time intervals and considering event utility.
method Integrates utility into interval-based sequences and proposes HUIPMiner algorithm with pruning strategy.
result HUIPMiner efficiently finds high utility patterns in real datasets.

A new neural network model for predicting event times without distributional assumptions.

problem Predicting event times from censored data with complex assumptions.
method Deep AFT Rank-regression model (DART) using Gehan's rank statistic.
result DART significantly improves performance on various benchmark datasets.

SurvivalBoost improves prediction of event times in competing risks scenarios.

problem Predicting event times in scenarios with multiple possible outcomes.
method Developed a strictly proper censoring-adjusted scoring rule for stochastic optimization of competing risks.
result SurvivalBoost outperforms 12 state-of-the-art models across various metrics.

Adversarial neural network improves cyber attack detection across different networks.

problem Detecting cyber attacks across networks with different traffic distributions.
method Adversarial Siamese neural network that learns invariant attack representations.
result The method retrieves sizable proportions of malicious events, even when trained on one dataset and tested on another.

This paper evaluates conformance measures in process mining using conformance propositions.

problem Lack of formal definition and evaluation of conformance measures in process mining.
method Formulated 21 conformance propositions to evaluate existing measures.
result Identified challenges and requirements for conformance measures in process mining.

Advances in deep learning for spatio-temporal event modeling.

problem Limitations of traditional parametric models in capturing nonstationary dynamics.
method Integration of deep neural architectures to model conditional intensity function and influence kernels.
result Deep influence kernel approach enhances expressiveness and statistical explainability.

Machine learning has been applied to several problems in particle physics research, beginning with applications to high-level physics analysis in the 1990s and 2000s, followed by an explosion of applications in particle and event identification and reconstruction in the 2010s. In this document we discuss promising futu…

2018-07-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Neural surrogate predicts SPN rates from token trajectories.

problem Challenging parameter estimation in SPNs with covariates.
method 1D Convolutional Residual Network trained on Gillespie-simulated SPN realizations.
result Surrogate predicts rate-function coefficients with RMSE = 0.043.

Research simulates Lloyd's of London's specialty insurance market dynamics.

problem Quantitative study of complex market phenomena in Lloyd's of London.
method Discrete Event Simulation (DES) framework for Lloyd's of London specialty insurance market.
result Model shows sophisticated exposure management reduces syndicate insolvency, and syndication enhances actuarial price accuracy.

New approach uses deep reinforcement learning for vehicle dispatching, reducing waiting times.

problem Dynamic vehicle dispatching problem in various contexts.
method Event-based semi-Markov decision process with deep q-learning.
result Deep reinforcement learning policies outperform heuristic methods in New York City data.

The study predicts surgical complications in Crohn's disease patients using machine learning.

problem Predicting surgical complications in Crohn's disease patients.
method Developed a novel algorithm using ensemble machine learning on 29 baseline covariates.
result Proposed pseudo-observation based estimators for evaluating predictive performance.

In this paper, we consider a new low-quality label learning problem: learning time series detection models from temporally imprecise labels. In this problem, the data consist of a set of input time series, and supervision is provided by a sequence of noisy time stamps corresponding to the occurrence of positive class e…

2016-11-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Study on how SEU affects neural networks and proposes remedies.

problem Impact of SEU on neural networks' robustness.
method Defined fault models of SEU, defined sensitivity to SIPP, analytically explored network weaknesses, proposed remedies.
result Proposed remedies can mitigate accuracy degradation from 28% to 0.27%.

Scalar-tensor gravitation theories, such as the Brans-Dicke family of theories, are commonly partly described by a modified Einstein equation in which the Ricci tensor is replaced by the Bakry-Émery-Ricci tensor of a Lorentzian metric and scalar field. In physics this formulation is sometimes referred to as the "Jordan…

2013-10-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a method to correct exposure misclassification bias in Cox models.

problem Challenges in estimating exposure-outcome associations with misclassified exposure data.
method An estimating equation method to correct for exposure misclassification-caused bias.
result Proposed method corrects bias in estimating PM2.5 level's association with lung cancer mortality.

Predicts clinical events using a landmark approach with machine learning for large biomarker histories.

problem Dynamic prediction of clinical events from large biomarker histories.
method Landmark approach extended to endogenous markers history combined with machine learning methods for survival data.
result Superlearner combining regularized regressions and random survival forests outperforms standard survival models.

Machine learning predicts circulatory failure in ICU patients.

problem Limited ability of clinicians to recognize early signs of patient deterioration.
method Developed an early warning system using machine learning on ICU data.
result Predicts 90.0% of circulatory failure events with 81.8% identified more than two hours in advance.

Consider observing a collection of discrete events within a network that reflect how network nodes influence one another. Such data are common in spike trains recorded from biological neural networks, interactions within a social network, and a variety of other settings. Data of this form may be modeled as self-excitin…

2018-02-13abs ↗pdf ↗