Paper assesses error estimates of Random Forests classification.
problem Quantitative assessment of Random Forests error estimates.
method Theoretical and empirical investigation of various error estimation methods.
result Random Forests' error estimates are closer to true error rate than average prediction error.
Optimal number of voters for a voting ensemble can be estimated from the distribution of classifier errors.
problem Finding the optimal number of voters for a voting ensemble to minimize error rate.
method Estimate the distribution of classifier errors and infer error rates for different numbers of voters.
result Lower-variance estimates of error rates can be obtained by inferring them for different numbers of voters.
Meta learning of optimal classifier error rates allows an experimenter to empirically estimate the intrinsic ability of any estimator to discriminate between two populations, circumventing the difficult problem of estimating the optimal Bayes classifier. To this end we propose a weighted nearest neighbor (WNN) graph es…
We address the problem of learning to benchmark the best achievable classifier performance. In this problem the objective is to establish statistically consistent estimates of the Bayes misclassification error rate without having to learn a Bayes-optimal classifier. Our learning to benchmark framework improves on previ…
We consider least squares estimation in a general nonparametric regression model. The rate of convergence of the least squares estimator (LSE) for the unknown regression function is well studied when the errors are sub-Gaussian. We find upper bounds on the rates of convergence of the LSE when the errors have uniformly …
Ex ante forecast outcomes should be interpreted as counterfactuals (potential histories), with errors as the spread between outcomes. Reapplying measurements of uncertainty about the estimation errors of the estimation errors of an estimation leads to branching counterfactuals. Such recursions of epistemic uncertainty …
Paper develops an online learning algorithm for functional data models.
problem Recovering slope functions or predictors in functional data models.
method Online regularized learning algorithm in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces with polynomially decaying step-size.
result Established fast convergence rates for estimation error without capacity assumption.
Method estimates LLM error rates using Pareto optimization.
problem Quantifying error rates in text-generating models.
method Pareto optimization for generating risk scores.
result Risk scores correlate well with true error rates.
Unified error analysis for discrete flow models.
problem Error analysis of discrete flow models.
method Stochastic calculus theory, Girsanov theorem, generator matching, uniformization.
result First error analysis for discrete flow models.
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is the most common nonparametric method for estimating the volatility structure of Gaussian interest rate models. One major difficulty in the estimation of these models is the fact that forward rate curves are not directly observable from the market so that non-trivial observational e…
This paper studies the problem of estimating the grahpon model - the underlying generating mechanism of a network. Graphon estimation arises in many applications such as predicting missing links in networks and learning user preferences in recommender systems. The graphon model deals with a random graph of n vertices…
New evidence shows computational barriers in graphon estimation using low-degree polynomials.
problem Estimating graphons efficiently and accurately.
method Low-degree polynomials to analyze computational limits.
result Low-degree polynomial estimators cannot significantly outperform USVT in graphon estimation.
The paper analyzes kNN density estimation's convergence rates under different conditions.
problem Analyzing convergence rates of kNN density estimation under bounded and unbounded support conditions.
method Examined two cases: bounded support with known and unknown support sets, and unbounded support with smooth density function.
result kNN density estimation is minimax optimal under certain conditions and better than kernel density estimation in some cases.
New method resolves density ratio estimation saturation issues.
problem Error saturation in density ratio estimation methods.
method Iterated regularization to improve kernel methods.
result Achieves fast error rates on regular learning problems.
A typical approach in estimating the learning rate of a regularized learning scheme is to bound the approximation error by the sum of the sampling error, the hypothesis error and the regularization error. Using a reproducing kernel space that satisfies the linear representer theorem brings the advantage of discarding t…
Several new estimation methods have been recently proposed for the linear regression model with observation error in the design. Different assumptions on the data generating process have motivated different estimators and analysis. In particular, the literature considered (1) observation errors in the design uniformly …
Deep neural nets estimate operators between infinite-dimensional spaces with fast rates.
problem Estimating operators between infinite-dimensional spaces.
method Deep neural networks for nonparametric estimation of Lipschitz operators.
result Error bounds decay with fast rates depending on intrinsic dimension.
New algorithms robustly estimate mean with near-optimal error rates.
problem Outlier robust mean estimation in high-dimensional data.
method Stability condition and iterative filtering algorithms.
result Optimal error rates with subgaussian rates for robust mean estimation.
Paper solves outlier robust mean estimation near breakdown point.
problem Estimating mean in presence of adversarial outliers.
method Sum-of-Squares approach to optimize error rate efficiently.
result Achieves optimal error rate for all ε ∈ [0, 1/2).
We revisit resampling procedures for error estimation in binary classification in terms of U-statistics. In particular, we exploit the fact that the error rate estimator involving all learning-testing splits is a U-statistic. Thus, it has minimal variance among all unbiased estimators and is asymptotically normally dis…
Improved 2-bit covariance estimator with reduced operator norm error and no tuning needed.
problem Improving 2-bit covariance estimation with reduced operator norm error and no tuning needed.
method Proposed a new 2-bit covariance matrix estimator using triangular dithering scales.
result Improved operator norm error rate that depends on effective rank of covariance matrix, closing theoretical gap.
New method improves false-/true-positive-rate estimation in fraud detection with noisy labels.
problem Estimating FPR/TPR in fraud detection with class-conditional label noise.
method Directly cleaning model's validation data to de-correlate cleaning error with model scores.
result Improves accuracy of FPR/TPR estimates, especially in asymmetric label noise scenarios.
Neural networks estimate statistical divergences with performance guarantees.
problem Estimating statistical divergences with theoretical performance guarantees.
method Parametrizing empirical variational form by a neural network and optimizing over parameter space.
result Established non-asymptotic absolute error bounds for neural estimators of four f-divergences. Transforms robust algorithms into private ones with optimal error rates.
problem Balancing privacy and robustness in machine learning.
method Black-box transformation method to convert robust algorithms to private ones with optimal error rates.
result Optimal private estimators for various tasks, including Gaussian and PCA.
We apply multiple testing procedures to the validation of estimated default probabilities in credit rating systems. The goal is to identify rating classes for which the probability of default is estimated inaccurately, while still maintaining a predefined level of committing type I errors as measured by the familywise …
This research analyzes the error convergence rate of GAN models.
problem Understanding the error convergence rate of GAN models.
method Applying Talagrand inequality and Borel-Cantelli lemma to establish a tight convergence rate.
result Established a tight convergence rate for the error of GAN models.
We study the problem of approximate ranking from observations of pairwise interactions. The goal is to estimate the underlying ranks of n objects from data through interactions of comparison or collaboration. Under a general framework of approximate ranking models, we characterize the exact optimal statistical error …
Paper develops error rates for physics-informed learning, comparing it to data-driven methods.
problem Understanding the trade-off between soft penalties and hard constraints in PISL.
method Develops complexity-dependent error rates using the small-ball method.
result Physics-informed estimators have comparable error rates to hard constrained methods, differing only by constants.
The study analyzes how covariance estimation errors affect the global minimum-variance portfolio under heavy-tailed distributions.
problem The impact of covariance estimation errors on the global minimum-variance portfolio under heavy-tailed distributions.
method Characterization of covariance-estimation error's effect on GMVP suboptimality, derivation of regret identity and bound, application to heavy-tailed returns.
result The decision geometry of GMVP regret is invariant to a (p-1)-dimensional projection of the error matrix, with invariance to the covariance-scale direction as an exact special case.
Deep neural networks outperform other methods in estimating non-smooth functions with singularities.
problem Estimating functions with singularities on hypersurfaces.
method Developed a minimax rate analysis for DNNs, proving their almost optimal convergence rate.
result DNNs outperform other estimators in estimating non-smooth functions with singularities.
We show that if F is a convex class of functions that is L-subgaussian, the error rate of learning problems generated by independent noise is equivalent to a fixed point determined by `local' covering estimates of the class, rather than by the gaussian averages. To that end, we establish new sharp upper and lower e…
Paper analyzes deep neural networks with dependent data, establishing convergence rates and error bounds.
problem Statistical analysis of deep neural networks under dependent data.
method Establishes rates of convergence and L2-error bounds for nonparametric sieve estimators of DNNs. result Non-asymptotic probability bounds on L2-errors for DNN estimators under stationary β-mixing data. Study analyzes deep learning's performance on variable exponent Besov space, highlighting adaptivity benefits.
problem Estimation error analysis of deep learning in variable exponent Besov space.
method Analysis of general approximation error and estimation errors of deep learning.
result Adaptivity of deep learning leads to significant improvement in estimation error, especially in high-dimensional spaces.
GANs learn distributions well from samples, with rates depending on intrinsic dimension.
problem Learning distributions from samples using GANs.
method Oracle inequality, Hölder functions approximation, neural network approximation, integral probability metrics.
result Convergence rates of GANs depend on intrinsic dimension, not ambient dimension.
Paper establishes convergence rates for learning elliptic pseudo-differential operators.
problem Learning elliptic pseudo-differential operators in partial differential equations.
method Wavelet-Galerkin framework, structured infinite-dimensional regression problem, sparse estimator, matrix compression, nested-support strategy.
result Obtained convergence rates for the estimator and efficient Galerkin solver.
The paper develops a neural network method for estimating drift functions of diffusion processes from discrete observations.
problem Nonparametric estimation of drift function for diffusion processes from high-frequency discrete observations.
method Neural network-based estimator for drift function estimation.
result Derives a non-asymptotic convergence rate for the neural network estimator.
For binary classification we establish learning rates up to the order of n−1 for support vector machines (SVMs) with hinge loss and Gaussian RBF kernels. These rates are in terms of two assumptions on the considered distributions: Tsybakov's noise assumption to establish a small estimation error, and a new geometr…
New estimator optimizes black-box model errors in semiparametric estimation.
problem How nuisance estimation errors affect low-dimensional target parameters in semiparametric models.
method Proposed a new estimator achieving a sharper rate of convergence.
result The first-order stochastic error of nuisance estimation can be eliminated.
Deep neural networks estimate regression functions on manifolds.
problem Estimating regression functions on manifolds from data.
method Fully connected deep neural networks with ReLU activation, analyzing convergence rates.
result Estimates achieve a rate of convergence dependent on manifold dimension, not predictor dimension.
Paper proposes deep neural networks for nonparametric regression from dependent data.
problem Nonparametric regression from strongly mixing observations.
method Minimum error entropy principle applied to deep neural networks.
result Deep neural networks achieve minimax optimal convergence rates for Gaussian errors.
New estimators for intrinsic dimension and Wasserstein distance improve OT accuracy.
problem Intrinsic dimension estimation and Wasserstein distance estimation in large-scale OT.
method Introduces novel estimators for intrinsic dimension and Wasserstein distance.
result Simple, tuning-free estimator of OT and fast intrinsic dimension estimator.
Study optimal transport for stationary processes, estimating joinings and costs.
problem Optimal transport for stationary stochastic processes.
method Introduced estimators for optimal joinings and costs, established consistency and error rates.
result Consistent estimators of optimal joinings and costs under mild and stronger mixing assumptions.
Crowdsourcing is an effective tool for human-powered computation on many tasks challenging for computers. In this paper, we provide finite-sample exponential bounds on the error rate (in probability and in expectation) of hyperplane binary labeling rules under the Dawid-Skene crowdsourcing model. The bounds can be appl…
Improved GANs estimate convergence rate for density estimation.
problem Improving the accuracy of density estimation with GANs.
method Proved an oracle inequality for JS divergence between GAN estimate and true density.
result JS-divergence rate of convergence is (logn/n)2β/(2β+d). Estimates neural network error approximating compact sets.
problem Approximating compact subsets from Banach spaces with neural networks.
method Estimates error rates for neural networks of varying width and depth.
result Depth is crucial for better approximation rates, width alone does not improve.
We establish the first nonasymptotic error bounds for Kaplan-Meier-based nearest neighbor and kernel survival probability estimators where feature vectors reside in metric spaces. Our bounds imply rates of strong consistency for these nonparametric estimators and, up to a log factor, match an existing lower bound for c…
Bayes Error Rate estimators are evaluated for accuracy and sample requirements.
problem Evaluating the accuracy and sample requirements of Bayes Error Rate estimators.
method Monte Carlo simulations with synthetic data and real-world scenarios.
result k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) is the most accurate non-parametric estimator.
Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been shown to achieve optimal approximation and estimation error rates (in minimax sense) in several function classes. However, previous analyzed optimal CNNs are unrealistically wide and difficult to obtain via optimization due to sparse constraints in important function class…