XGBoostLSS extends XGBoost to predict entire conditional distributions.
problem Predicting conditional mean only limits model flexibility.
method XGBoostLSS models all moments of a parametric distribution.
result Enhanced flexibility and additional insights from data.
CatBoostLSS predicts entire conditional distributions for probabilistic forecasting.
problem Limited to predicting only the conditional mean, traditional CatBoost is improved.
method Models all moments of a parametric distribution (mean, location, scale, shape).
result Enhanced flexibility in data analysis and probabilistic forecasting.
Proposes Moment Exchange to use moments in image recognition models, improving generalization.
problem Discarding moments in image recognition models reduces stability and training time.
method Moment Exchange: replaces moments of learned features with another image's moments and interpolates labels.
result Improves generalization of recognition models across multiple datasets.
Unified probabilistic gradient boosting for entire conditional distribution modeling.
problem Creating accurate probabilistic forecasts from regression tasks.
method Unified probabilistic gradient boosting framework using XGBoost and LightGBM, modeling conditional moments or CDF via Normalizing Flows.
result Achieves state-of-the-art forecast accuracy.
MuML models predict molecular dipole moments using atomic partial charges and dipoles.
problem Predicting molecular dipole moments accurately and efficiently.
method Combining atomic partial charges and atomic dipoles within a physically inspired ML model.
result MuML models achieve excellent transferability and accuracy, approaching DFT results at a fraction of the computational cost.
A new filter reduces density fitting to a linear solve, improving performance on nonlinear systems.
problem Nonlinear Bayesian filtering challenges in representing belief distributions.
method Combines score matching with Stein's identity to avoid partition function evaluation.
result The Score Kalman Filter (SKF) outperforms existing methods on nonlinear systems.
Estimates MLDS using tensor decomposition, improving upon existing methods.
problem Learning mixtures of linear dynamical systems from input-output data.
method Proposes a moment-based estimator using tensor decomposition.
result Improves sample complexity bounds for estimating MLDS.
This paper uses HCR to predict bid-ask spreads from accessible data.
problem Predicting bid-ask spreads from incomplete data.
method Hierarchical correlation reconstruction (HCR) to model conditional distributions.
result Accurate predictions of bid-ask spreads with interpretable coefficients.
New estimator improves statistical validity of synthetic data integration.
problem Combining synthetic data generated by large language models with real data for valid inference.
method Generalized method of moments estimator with theoretical guarantees.
result Improves estimates of target parameter through interactions between synthetic and real data.
New GP-based method improves uncertainty quantification for causal functions.
problem Challenges in quantifying uncertainty for causal effects, especially for entire functions.
method GP-based approach using inner-product of observational functions in RKHS, with tractable posterior moments and calibration.
result Improves uncertainty quantification while maintaining causal effect estimation performance.
It is known that Heston's stochastic volatility model exhibits moment explosion, and that the critical moment s+ can be obtained by solving (numerically) a simple equation. This yields a leading order expansion for the implied volatility at large strikes: σBS(k,T)2T∼Ψ(s+−1)×k (Roger Lee's moment…
In this letter, we apply the artificial neural network in a supervised manner to map out the quantum phase diagram of disordered topological superconductor in class DIII. Given the disorder that keeps the discrete symmetries of the ensemble as a whole, translational symmetry which is broken in the quasiparticle distrib…
Improves deep learning training by matching mini-batch distributions.
problem Overfitting and noise in mini-batch training.
method ITDM, which matches the moments of mini-batch distributions to reduce overfitting.
result ITDM reduces overfitting and improves DNN training.
We prove a generalization of a theorem of Borel-Harish-Chandra on closed orbits of linear actions of reductive groups. Consider a real reductive algebraic group G acting linearly and rationally on a real vector space V. G can be viewed as the real points of a complex reductive group GC which acts on $V…
The aim of this paper is to quantify and manage systemic risk caused by default contagion in the interbank market. We model the market as a random directed network, where the vertices represent financial institutions and the weighted edges monetary exposures between them. Our model captures the strong degree of heterog…
A new method calculates fractional moments using the moment-generating function.
problem Computing fractional moments from probability densities.
method Integral framework based on moment-generating function.
result Exact integral expressions for various types of moments.
Study compares weak and homotopy moment maps in multisymplectic geometry.
problem Existence and equivariance of moment maps in multisymplectic geometry.
method Comparison of weak and homotopy moment maps.
result Analysis of existence and equivariance phenomena.
For a GJR-GARCH specification with a generic innovation distribution we derive analytic expressions for the first four conditional moments of the forward and aggregated returns and variances. Moment for the most commonly used GARCH models are stated as special cases. We also the limits of these moments as the time hori…
This paper identifies and bounds ICE central moments using PO marginal central moments.
problem Identifying and characterizing treatment effect heterogeneity.
method Using only marginal central moments of potential outcomes, the paper identifies and bounds central moments of individual causal effects.
result Identification and bounding of central moments of ICE using marginal moments of POs.
We tackle causal inference under conditional moment restrictions using importance weighting.
problem Challenges in causal inference under conditional moment restrictions, especially in high-dimensional settings.
method Transform conditional moment restrictions to unconditional moment restrictions through importance weighting.
result Successfully estimate nonparametric functions defined under conditional moment restrictions.
Revisits Lee's Moment Formula, relaxing moment assumptions for implied volatility.
problem Implied volatility constraints under finite log-moments.
method Analyzes stock price martingale with finite log-moments, derives new bounds and proof.
result New bounds on implied volatility growth, relaxes moment assumptions.
Enhanced Adam uses higher-order moments for better performance.
problem Improving the performance of Adam optimization algorithm.
method Proposes HAdam, an extension of Adam using higher-order moments of the stochastic gradient.
result Higher-order moments of the stochastic gradient can lead to better performance than vanilla Adam.
Developed moment estimators for affine stochastic volatility models.
problem Estimating parameters of affine stochastic volatility models.
method Introduced recursive equations for moments and proposed moment estimators.
result Established a central limit theorem and derived asymptotic covariance matrix.
Predictive State Representations (PSRs) are an expressive class of models for controlled stochastic processes. PSRs represent state as a set of predictions of future observable events. Because PSRs are defined entirely in terms of observable data, statistically consistent estimates of PSR parameters can be learned effi…
Stiefel-Whitney classes of moment-angle manifolds are trivial.
problem Analyzing the topological properties of moment-angle manifolds.
method Proving triviality of Stiefel-Whitney classes for moment-angle manifolds, including partial quotients.
result Stiefel-Whitney classes of moment-angle manifolds are trivial.
A new method for estimating causal parameters from observables reduces the need for finite moment conditions.
problem Estimating causal parameters from observational data with unknown or infinite moment conditions.
method Variational Method of Moments (VMM) for a general class of estimators, including kernel and neural net-based methods.
result VMM estimators are consistent, asymptotically normal, and semiparametrically efficient.
Introduces generalized moment maps for almost Hermitian settings.
problem Extending classical moment map theory to almost Hermitian settings.
method Introduces momentumly closed forms and proves a variant of the Darboux-Weinstein theorem.
result Establishes convexity property and constructs reduction space for generalized moment maps.
New KCM tests improve specification testing via RKHS.
problem Improving specification tests for econometric models.
method Kernel conditional moment (KCM) tests based on RKHS.
result KCM tests have better finite-sample performance than existing tests.
Constructs a moment map flow for isotropic maps on surfaces.
problem Understanding isotropic maps on surfaces and their properties.
method Develops a Kähler moment map geometry and a modified moment map flow.
result Polyhedral modified moment map flow induces a strong deformation retraction.
A new method of moments estimator goes beyond data reweighting.
problem Estimation of moment restrictions and conditional moment restrictions.
method Kernel Method of Moments (KMM) based on maximum mean discrepancy.
result KMM achieves competitive performance on conditional moment restriction tasks.
Moment Pooling reduces latent space dimensions in machine learning models.
problem High-dimensional latent spaces in machine learning models are hard to interpret.
method Moment Pooling extends Deep Sets networks to arbitrary multivariate moments.
result Latent dimensions as small as 1 can achieve similar performance to higher dimensions.
Deformation quantization yields a new moment map on symplectic diffeomorphisms.
problem Formalizing moment maps on diffeomorphism groups of symplectic manifolds.
method Deformation quantization framework applied to extrmDiff0(M). result Obtained a deformation of the Donaldson moment map.
The paper derives formulas for moments of a Student t distribution and applies them to quantify Lp-quantiles.
problem Understanding the moments and quantiles of a Student t distribution.
method Developed formulas for partial and complete moments, and derived relationships between Lp-quantiles. result For a Student t distribution, the Ln−j+1-quantile and Lj-quantile coincide at any confidence level. We propose a method of moments (MoM) algorithm for training large-scale implicit generative models. Moment estimation in this setting encounters two problems: it is often difficult to define the millions of moments needed to learn the model parameters, and it is hard to determine which properties are useful when specif…
We discuss the probabilistic properties of the variation based third and fourth moments of financial returns as estimators of the actual moments of the return distributions. The moment variations are defined under non-parametric assumptions with quadratic variation method but for the computational tractability, we use …
Real moment-angle manifolds of combinatorially equivalent simple polytopes are equivariantly diffeomorphic.
problem Uniqueness of smooth structures on real moment-angle manifolds.
method Arguments from calculus applied to results from complex moment-angle manifolds.
result Real moment-angle manifolds of combinatorially equivalent simple polytopes are equivariantly diffeomorphic.
Deform quantization recovers scalar curvature in complex structures.
problem Recovering scalar curvature in complex structures.
method Formal moment map construction on almost complex structures.
result Formal moment map deforms scalar curvature moment map in integrable cases.
In standard graph clustering/community detection, one is interested in partitioning the graph into more densely connected subsets of nodes. In contrast, the "search" problem of this paper aims to only find the nodes in a "single" such community, the target, out of the many communities that may exist. To do so , we are …
New neural networks learn distribution functions using quantiles and moments.
problem Approximating functions of distributions in probability spaces.
method Quantile and moment neural networks, mixing quantile and moment features.
result Moment neural network outperforms others for bivariate distributions.
This paper studies the Fisher-Rao geometry on the parameter space of beta distributions. We derive the geodesic equations and the sectional curvature, and prove that it is negative. This leads to uniqueness for the Riemannian centroid in that space. We use this Riemannian structure to study canonical moments, an intrin…
JME continually estimates data moments privately and accurately.
problem Private and accurate continual estimation of data moments.
method Uses matrix mechanism and joint sensitivity analysis.
result Improves accuracy in estimating mean and covariance with reduced noise.
Paper reviews and proves the uniqueness of multipole moments for stationary spacetimes.
problem Characterizing the gravitational field in stationary spacetimes.
method Geroch's asymptotic flatness definition and one-point conformal completion.
result Revised uniqueness result for multipole moments in stationary spacetimes.
Moment-angle manifolds provide a wide class of examples of non-Kaehler compact complex manifolds. A complex moment-angle manifold Z is constructed via certain combinatorial data, called a complete simplicial fan. In the case of rational fans, the manifold Z is the total space of a holomorphic bundle over a toric variet…
New method tightens sub-Gaussian concentration inequalities.
problem Estimating variance-type parameters of sub-Gaussian distributions.
method Using sub-Gaussian intrinsic moment norm to maximize normalized moments.
result Provides tighter sub-Gaussian concentration inequalities.
We introduce features for massive data streams. These stream features can be thought of as "ordered moments" and generalize stream sketches from "moments of order one" to "ordered moments of arbitrary order". In analogy to classic moments, they have theoretical guarantees such as universality that are important for lea…
Empower efficient representation of distributions through moment-preserving methods.
problem Representing high-dimensional probability measures efficiently and accurately.
method Empower efficient representation of distributions through moment-preserving methods.
result Empowers efficient and accurate representation of high-dimensional probability measures.
Extends moment map concept to locally conformally Kähler manifolds.
problem No specific problem stated; extends existing concept.
method Extends classical moment map interpretation to locally conformally Kähler geometry.
result Scalar curvature as moment map in locally conformally Kähler geometry.
Generalizes moment-matching for exponential families with conditioning or hidden data.
problem Generalizing moment-matching conditions for exponential families with conditioning or hidden data.
method First-principles explanation and self-contained derivation of generalized moment-matching conditions.
result Derives generalized moment-matching conditions for conditional exponential families and hidden data.