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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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140280420560 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for energy prediction

Structured Prediction Energy Networks (SPENs) are a simple, yet expressive family of structured prediction models (Belanger and McCallum, 2016). An energy function over candidate structured outputs is given by a deep network, and predictions are formed by gradient-based optimization. This paper presents end-to-end lear…

2017-03-16abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper presents a novel data-driven technique based on the spatiotemporal pattern network (STPN) for energy/power prediction for complex dynamical systems. Built on symbolic dynamic filtering, the STPN framework is used to capture not only the individual system characteristics but also the pair-wise causal dependen…

2017-02-03abs ↗pdf ↗

NNs accurately predict energy eigenvalues and other physical phenomena in 1D quantum mechanics.

problem Understanding how neural networks interpret physics.
method Training NNs to predict energy eigenvalues from potentials and testing their ability to generalize.
result NNs can predict physical phenomena not learned during training, indicating a new way of understanding physics.

ShotgunCSP predicts crystal structures using machine learning, achieving high accuracy with minimal computation.

problem Predicting stable or metastable crystal structures of large systems.
method Noniterative screening using transfer learning and generative models.
result ShotgunCSP achieves 93.3% accuracy in benchmark tests with 90 different crystal structures.

EBM predicts protein conformations at atomic scale using crystallized data.

problem Predicting the conformation of a side chain from its context within a protein structure.
method Energy-based model trained on crystallized protein data, evaluating performance on rotamer recovery task.
result EBM achieves performance close to state-of-the-art methods, including Rosetta energy function.

STOIC improves energy demand forecasting with reliable uncertainty estimates.

problem Accurate point forecasts alone are insufficient for energy systems; reliable uncertainty estimates are needed.
method Integrates graph-based forecasting with tabular foundation models for zero-shot calibration of spatial-temporal residuals.
result STOIC delivers more reliable and robust uncertainty estimates for complex graph-structured energy time series.

Proposes linking energy and force uncertainty in deep learning potentials.

problem Uncertainty in predicted energies and forces in machine learning models.
method Introduces a spatially correlated noise process to link energy and force uncertainty.
result Demonstrates the approach on molecular datasets, linking energy and force uncertainties.

Controller seeks informative system observations to predict nonlinear dynamics.

problem Predicting nonlinear dynamics with uncertain parameters.
method Expected free energy minimization for balancing goal state and informative observations.
result Controller improves performance in uncertain parameter scenarios.

Paper improves zero-shot protein stability prediction by clarifying free-energy foundations.

problem Improving zero-shot protein stability prediction using inverse folding models.
method Clarifying the free-energy foundations of inverse folding models and proposing better estimates of relative stability.
result Significant gains in zero-shot performance can be achieved with simple methods.

New theory shows predictive coding makes learning landscape easier to navigate.

problem Understanding the impact of predictive coding's inference procedure on learning efficiency.
method Analyzed the geometry of the energy landscape of deep linear networks, proving many non-strict saddles become strict in the equilibrated energy.
result All highly degenerate (non-strict) saddles of the loss become strict in the equilibrated energy, suggesting a more robust learning landscape.

Carbontracker tracks and predicts training DL models' carbon footprint.

problem Exponential growth in energy consumption for training deep learning models.
method Carbontracker tool for tracking and predicting energy and carbon footprint.
result Promotes responsible computing and encourages energy-efficient deep learning.

The paper investigates non-linear and heavy-tailed predictability in transition-energy financial markets.

problem Incomplete representation of dependence structure in Gaussian-linear forecasting frameworks.
method Develops a hybrid forecasting framework combining Student-t Vector Autoregressions with nonlinear recurrent residual learning architectures.
result The proposed framework consistently improves predictive accuracy relative to conventional models, especially during macro-financial stress.

We introduce structured prediction energy networks (SPENs), a flexible framework for structured prediction. A deep architecture is used to define an energy function of candidate labels, and then predictions are produced by using back-propagation to iteratively optimize the energy with respect to the labels. This deep a…

2015-11-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Consumer Demand Response (DR) is an important research and industry problem, which seeks to categorize, predict and modify consumer's energy consumption. Unfortunately, traditional clustering methods have resulted in many hundreds of clusters, with a given consumer often associated with several clusters, making it diff…

2017-02-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes a risk-averse approach to energy storage price arbitrage using conformal uncertainty quantification.

problem Inherent volatility and uncertainty of real-time electricity prices create financial risks for storage arbitrage.
method Two-layer prediction model with conformal uncertainty quantification for high coverage of real-time price uncertainty.
result The framework achieves good profit margins with minimal losses, demonstrating effectiveness in real-time market.

This research optimizes energy consumption forecasting in Puno using parallel computing and ARIMA models.

problem Improving energy consumption forecasting accuracy and efficiency in Puno.
method Parallel computing and ARIMA models for forecasting energy consumption.
result Notable improvements in computational efficiency and data processing capabilities.

Novel ML model predicts solvation free energies from atom interactions.

problem Predicting solvation free energies from atomistic interactions.
method Two encoding functions extract atomic feature vectors, interactions calculated by inner product.
result Outstanding performance and transferability on 6,493 experimental measurements.

Optimizes deep reinforcement learning for energy-efficient video streaming.

problem Minimizing energy consumption in video streaming over mobile networks.
method Integrates DDPG algorithm with partially known model to reduce signaling overhead and improve convergence speed.
result Proposed policy converges to optimal policy with improved convergence speed.

Crowdsourcing has been successfully applied in many domains including astronomy, cryptography and biology. In order to test its potential for useful application in a Smart Grid context, this paper investigates the extent to which a crowd can contribute predictive hypotheses to a model of residential electric energy con…

2017-09-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Derives energy-momentum tensor from Standard Model, examines energy conditions.

problem Validating energy conditions in the context of the Standard Model.
method Geometric variational problem on globally hyperbolic manifold, deriving energy-momentum tensor.
result Validates various energy conditions in general relativity.

ECBMs unify concept-based interpretations in deep learning models.

problem Suboptimal final accuracy and lack of concept interaction and conditional dependencies.
method ECBMs use a set of neural networks to define joint energy, enabling concept correction and conditional dependency quantification.
result ECBMs achieve higher accuracy and richer concept interpretations compared to state-of-the-art methods.

ScoreGrad predicts multivariate time series with energy-based models, achieving state-of-the-art results.

problem Predicting multivariate time series with generative models while considering noise and distribution.
method ScoreGrad uses continuous energy-based generative models with a feature extraction and score matching module.
result ScoreGrad achieves state-of-the-art results on six real-world datasets.

Predicting absolute magnitude of fluctuations of price, even if their sign remains unknown, is important for risk analysis and for option prices. In the present work, we display our predictions about absolute magnitude of daily fluctuations of the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA), utilizing the original theory of c…

2006-02-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper benchmarks and customizes energy forecasting methods.

problem Energy forecasting challenges and differences from traditional time series.
method Collected large-scale load datasets and renewable energy datasets. Developed feature engineering and customized loss functions.
result Comprehensive evaluation of 21 forecasting methods in energy datasets.

New model predicts energy prices volatility by smoothing time variation and persistence.

problem Separate study of volatility's time variation and persistence.
method Dynamic persistence model that allows shocks with heterogeneous persistence to vary smoothly over time.
result Significantly improves volatility forecasts over state-of-the-art models.

New method improves wind and solar energy forecasts by 48 hours.

problem Volatility of wind and solar energy makes accurate forecasts difficult.
method Two-step machine learning approach to calibrate ensemble forecasts.
result Statistical post-processing improves forecast skill by at least 48 hours.

The study explores machine learning for predicting customer propensity-to-pay uncertainty.

problem Improving customer experience, reducing financial hardship, and managing cash flow risks.
method Investigated machine learning models for predicting propensity-to-pay, focusing on uncertainty estimation.
result Novel Bayesian Neural Network model for binary classification of propensity-to-pay.

Paper compares econometric models with machine learning for energy forecasting.

problem Tackles the trade-off between predictive accuracy and interpretability in energy markets.
method Integrates TVP-SVAR with copulas for forecasting energy--macro dynamics.
result Copula-enhanced econometric models provide interpretable insights while matching machine learning accuracy.

Novel method combines physics priors for energy-conserving dynamics.

problem Learning long-term dynamics of complex physical systems from noisy data.
method Variational Integrator Graph Networks integrating energy constraint, high-order symplectic integrators, and graph neural networks.
result Improves predictive performance across single and many-body problems.

We introduce the Hierarchically Interacting Particle Neural Network (HIP-NN) to model molecular properties from datasets of quantum calculations. Inspired by a many-body expansion, HIP-NN decomposes properties, such as energy, as a sum over hierarchical terms. These terms are generated from a neural network--a composit…

2017-09-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep learning improves solar energy forecasting using physical and data-driven models.

problem Improving short-term solar energy forecasting accuracy.
method Injecting physical knowledge into deep learning models for spatio-temporal forecasting.
result Improved solar energy forecasting models using deep learning and physical criteria.

Meta-materials simulation sped up with energy surrogates.

problem Challenging simulation of complex meta-materials due to high-fidelity PDEs.
method Learned component-level surrogates using neural networks to model stored potential energy.
result Surrogates enable accurate macroscopic behavior simulation without full structure simulation.

A2I Transformer predicts atom energies from coordinates, avoiding heavy featurization.

problem Efficiently predicting atom energies from molecular coordinates with minimal featurization.
method End-to-end model using self-attention, permutation-equivariant.
result Stable predictions with significantly smaller errors than molecular dynamics simulations.