A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Unified framework for planning under uncertainty using variational inference.
Model-based reinforcement learning could enable sample-efficient learning by quickly acquiring rich knowledge about the world and using it to improve behaviour without additional data. Learned dynamics models can be directly used for planning actions but this has been challenging because of inaccuracies in the learned …
Model-based planning holds great promise for improving both sample efficiency and generalization in reinforcement learning (RL). We show that energy-based models (EBMs) are a promising class of models to use for model-based planning. EBMs naturally support inference of intermediate states given start and goal state dis…
New AI model improves grid planning efficiency and reliability.
Statistical depth metrics help identify risky power grid scenarios.
In the wake of the highly electrified future ahead of us, the role of energy storage is crucial wherever distributed generation is abundant, such as in microgrid settings. Given the variety of storage options that are becoming more and more economical, determining which type of storage technology to invest in, along wi…
This paper introduces a new approach to active inference using constrained Bethe Free Energy.
STOIC improves energy demand forecasting with reliable uncertainty estimates.
Imitation Learning (IL) is an appealing approach to learn desirable autonomous behavior. However, directing IL to achieve arbitrary goals is difficult. In contrast, planning-based algorithms use dynamics models and reward functions to achieve goals. Yet, reward functions that evoke desirable behavior are often difficul…
CESAR improves wind speed and power forecasting for high-resolution simulations.
New method for selecting clusters in residential electricity data.
As renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) penetrate the power grid at an accelerating speed, it is essential for operators to have accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) energy forecasting for efficient operations and planning. Generally, observed weather data are applied in the solar PV generation forecasting model w…
Successful implementation of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandating 33 percent renewable energy generation by 2020 requires inclusion of a robust strategy to mitigate increased risk of energy deficits (blackouts) due to short time-scale (sub 1 hour) intermittencies in renewable energy sources. Of the…
Most of the current game-theoretic demand-side management methods focus primarily on the scheduling of home appliances, and the related numerical experiments are analyzed under various scenarios to achieve the corresponding Nash-equilibrium (NE) and optimal results. However, not much work is conducted for academic or c…
This research optimizes energy consumption forecasting in Puno using parallel computing and ARIMA models.
Active inference is a process theory of the brain that states that all living organisms infer actions in order to minimize their (expected) free energy. However, current experiments are limited to predefined, often discrete, state spaces. In this paper we use recent advances in deep learning to learn the state space an…
Computer-assisted synthesis planning aims to help chemists find better reaction pathways faster. Finding viable and short pathways from sugar molecules to value-added chemicals can be modeled as a retrosynthesis planning problem with a catalyst allowed. This is a crucial step in efficient biomass conversion. The tradit…
This paper presents a novel nonmyopic adaptive Gaussian process planning (GPP) framework endowed with a general class of Lipschitz continuous reward functions that can unify some active learning/sensing and Bayesian optimization criteria and offer practitioners some flexibility to specify their desired choices for defi…
Study predicts wind energy potential in Gulf of Oman using climate models.
Paper models uncertainty in electricity and gas markets to assess its impact.
Future autonomous systems need reliable world models and complex action sequences.
LAD-BNet improves real-time energy forecasting on edge devices.
Paper proposes a risk-averse approach to energy storage price arbitrage using conformal uncertainty quantification.
Extends martingale Schrödinger bridge to arbitrary dimensions and characterizes it.
This paper investigates the autonomous control of massive unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for mission-critical applications (e.g., dispatching many UAVs from a source to a destination for firefighting). Achieving their fast travel and low motion energy without inter-UAV collision under wind perturbation is a daunting c…
New model forecasts power consumption with high accuracy over months to years.
The paper proposes a new method for probabilistic load forecasting using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows.
Paper introduces normalizing flows for accurate probabilistic energy forecasting.
Bounded rationality, that is, decision-making and planning under resource limitations, is widely regarded as an important open problem in artificial intelligence, reinforcement learning, computational neuroscience and economics. This paper offers a consolidated presentation of a theory of bounded rationality based on i…
This paper shows ARMs and EBMs are equivalent, revealing ARM lookahead capabilities.
Paper presents a method for probabilistic load forecasting using adaptive online learning.
The implementation of optimal power flow (OPF) methods to perform voltage and power flow regulation in electric networks is generally believed to require extensive communication. We consider distribution systems with multiple controllable Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and present a data-driven approach to learn c…
Agent uses message passing to optimize robot navigation, balancing exploration and exploitation.
New method designs fairer transport plans with uncertainty.
Improves RL planning by proposing sub-goals hierarchically.
We aim to reduce the burden of programming and deploying autonomous systems to work in concert with people in time-critical domains, such as military field operations and disaster response. Deployment plans for these operations are frequently negotiated on-the-fly by teams of human planners. A human operator then trans…
This work enables UAVs to autonomously form desired trajectories without needing a central plan.
Study integrates reliability constraints into generation planning models.
For those concerned with the long-term value of their accounts, it can be a challenge to plan in the present for inflation-adjusted economic growth over coming decades. Here, I argue that there exists an economic constant that carries through time, and that this can help us to anticipate the more distant future: global…
Enhanced X-ray polarimetry with deep learning for better exposure times.
New approach improves black-box planning efficiency by discovering focused macros.
Study motion planning for points avoiding obstacles in a plane.
Selective planning with imperfect models reduces harmful effects of model inadequacy.
CoMPNetX uses neural networks to efficiently solve constrained motion planning problems.
This article asks how planning scholarship may effectively gain impact in planning practice through media exposure. In liberal democracies the public sphere is dominated by mass media. Therefore, working with such media is a prerequisite for effective public impact of planning research. Using the example of megaproject…
We introduce Dynamic Planning Networks (DPN), a novel architecture for deep reinforcement learning, that combines model-based and model-free aspects for online planning. Our architecture learns to dynamically construct plans using a learned state-transition model by selecting and traversing between simulated states and…
This paper presents a unifying framework for reinforcement learning and planning.
A planning approach learns skills from interactions, balancing exploration and exploitation.