A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Unified framework explains retirement and annuitization decisions under age-dependent mortality.
Optimal annuitization strategy depends on age, labor income, and mortality risk.
Existence of incomplete Radner equilibrium with endogenous noise tracker.
New framework forecasts both supply and demand in rental markets.
Dual labor market model explains low inflation despite low unemployment.
We study a large economy in which firms cannot compute exact solutions to the non-linear equations that characterize the equilibrium price at which they can sell future output. Instead, firms use polynomial expansions to approximate prices. The precision with which they can compute prices is endogenous and depends on t…
How do regions acquire the knowledge they need to diversify their economic activities? How does the migration of workers among firms and industries contribute to the diffusion of that knowledge? Here we measure the industry, occupation, and location-specific knowledge carried by workers from one establishment to the ne…
Supply chains are the backbone of the global economy. Disruptions to them can be costly. Centrally managed supply chains invest in ensuring their resilience. Decentralized supply chains, however, must rely upon the self-interest of their individual components to maintain the resilience of the entire chain. We examine t…
Survival strategies in a market with self-determined prices are closely tied to log-optimal investment.
Modeling supply chain disruptions from climate hazards with adaptive firms.
There is a fast-growing literature on estimating optimal treatment regimes based on randomized trials or observational studies under a key identifying condition of no unmeasured confounding. Because confounding by unmeasured factors cannot generally be ruled out with certainty in observational studies or randomized tri…
New method forecasts workforce reintegration success rates.
Study compares employers with and without anticipating strategic labor force responses.
We consider the problem faced by a service platform that needs to match limited supply with demand but also to learn the attributes of new users in order to match them better in the future. We introduce a benchmark model with heterogeneous "workers" (demand) and a limited supply of "jobs" that arrive over time. Job typ…
We describe a simple model for speculative trading based on adaptive behavior of economic agents.The adaptive behavior is expressed through a feedback mechanism for changing agents' stock-to-bond ratios, depending on the past performance of their portfolios.The stock price is set according to the demand-supply for the …
The paper examines optimal annuitization for retirees with potential post-retirement work.
Labor productivity in developed countries is analyzed and modeled. Modeling is based on our previous finding that the rate of labor force participation is a unique function of GDP per capita. Therefore, labor productivity is fully determined by the rate of economic growth, and thus, is a secondary economic variable. In…
The Minority Game framework was recently generalized to account for the possibility that agents adapt not only through strategy selection but also by diversifying their response according to the kind of dynamical regime, or the risk, they perceive. Here we study the effects of this mechanism in different information st…
Study on price formation in a market with a major player and minor firms.
Labor productivity in Turkey, Spain, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, and New Zealand has been analyzed and modeled. These counties extend the previously analyzed set of the US, UK, Japan, France, Italy, and Canada. Modelling is based on the link between the rate of labor participation and real GDP per capita. New result…
Study optimizes smart contract adoption under high demand variability using Negative Binomial models.
Bitcoin's monetary velocity is constrained by network friction, leading to significant utility contraction during shocks.
Labor productivity was studied at the microscopic level in terms of distributions based on individual firm financial data from Japan and the US. A power-law distribution in terms of firms and sector productivity was found in both countries' data. The labor productivities were not equal for nation and sectors, in contra…
The persistence of racial inequality in the U.S. labor market against a general backdrop of formal equality of opportunity is a troubling phenomenon that has significant ramifications on the design of hiring policies. In this paper, we show that current group disparate outcomes may be immovable even when hiring decisio…
The paper tackles reinforcement learning with exogenous variables and rewards.
The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between inter-industry, intra-industry and inter-regional clustering and demand for labor by companies in Portugal. Is expected at the outset that there is more demand for work where the agglomeration is greater. It should be noted, as a summary conclusion, the resul…
UBI model proves financial equilibrium exists.
The paper explains stock market predictability through a model of heterogeneous beliefs.
This paper analyzes the dynamic incentives for technology adoption under a transferable permits system, which allows for strategic trading on the permit market. Initially, firms can invest both in low-emitting production technologies and trade permits. In the model, technology adoption and allowance price are generated…
Sandpile Economics explains how economies can be prone to large crises from small shocks.
Solves infinite horizon portfolio problem with path-dependent labor income.
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, p(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 was found for developed economies. For the USA, A1=4.0, A2=-0.03075, and t1=2 years. It provides a RMS forecasting error (RMFSE) of 0.8% at a two-year horizon for the period between 1965 and 2002 (the best amon…
We propose a new model of the liquidity driven banking system focusing on overnight interbank loans. This significant branch of the interbank market is commonly neglected in the banking system modeling and systemic risk analysis. We construct a model where banks are allowed to use both the interbank and the securities …
We show that an economic system populated by multiple agents generates an equilibrium distribution in the form of multiple scaling laws of conditional PDFs, which are sufficient for characterizing the probability distribution. The existence of the double scaling law is demonstrated empirically for the sales and the lab…
The evolution of the rate of price inflation and unemployment in Japan has been modeled within the Phillips curve framework. As an extension to the Phillips curve, we represent both variables as linear functions of the change rate of labor force. All models were first estimated in 2005 for the period between 1980 and 2…
Transformers can handle endogeneity in linear regression using IV methods.
Groups of firms often achieve a competitive advantage through the formation of geo-industrial clusters. Although many exemplary clusters, such as Hollywood or Silicon Valley, have been frequently studied, systematic approaches to identify and analyze the hierarchical structure of the geo-industrial clusters at the glob…
Deep learning predicts employment changes and industry health.
Money was invented to address the difficulty in the double coincidence of wants between the supply and demand when people exchanged their goods and services. There are two information states in society: one is the initial state that people have goods and services due to division of labor; the other is the final state t…
The paper offers algorithms for managing freelancers and in-house workers in online labor markets.
Easy conditions found for simplifying complex systems.
How does supply uncertainty affect the structure of supply chain networks? To answer this question we consider a setting where retailers and suppliers must establish a costly relationship with each other prior to engaging in trade. Suppliers, with uncertain yield, announce wholesale prices, while retailers must decide …
New findings allow infinite mean intensity Hawkes processes to be stable.
Optimal retirement timing and consumption under shortfall risk management
Systems with long-range persistence and memory are shown to exhibit different precursory as well as recovery patterns in response to shocks of exogeneous versus endogeneous origins. By endogeneous, we envision either fluctuations resulting from an underlying chaotic dynamics or from a stochastic forcing origin which ma…
This paper models financial contagion with endogenously determined market liquidity.
Model explains deleveraging risks in non-custodial stablecoins.
Implementing a set of microeconomic criteria, we develop price dynamics equations using a function of demand/supply with key symmetry properties. The function of demand/supply can be linear or nonlinear. The type of function determines the nature of the tail of the distribution based on the randomness in the supply and…