This article aims to present an elementary analytical solution to the question of the formation of a structure of differentiation of rates of return in a classical gravitation model and in a model of the dynamics of price-wage spirals.
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6 results for “Stagflation”
The analysis of dollar inflation performed by the authors through the approximation of empirical data for 1913-2012 with a power-law function with an accelerating log-periodic oscillation superimposed over it has made it possible to detect a quasi-singularity point around the 17th of December, 2012. It is demonstrated …
Bitcoin's monetary velocity is constrained by network friction, leading to significant utility contraction during shocks.
problem Bitcoin's monetary velocity is limited by network congestion, causing significant utility loss during economic shocks.
method Empirical analysis using Transaction Cost Index and threshold regression to identify structural breaks and velocity contraction.
result Network friction significantly reduces Bitcoin's monetary velocity, leading to a net utility contraction of -9.39% during shocks.
New method decomposes local projections to reveal historical drivers of estimates.
problem Uncertainty in interpreting local projections due to black-box nature.
method Decomposes LP estimates into contributions of historical events, interpreting weights as shocks and proximity scores.
result Dominant historical events drive impulse response estimates, revealing underlying mechanisms.
Paper classifies economic states and optimizes portfolios for stagflationary environments.
problem Economic uncertainty and stagflationary conditions.
method Mathematical techniques for analyzing multivariate time series, economic driver analysis, self-similarity identification, and portfolio optimization.
result Constructs economic state classifications and computes economic state integrals.
Deep forecasting models show output heads significantly improve performance on fat-tailed financial returns.
problem Improving deep learning models for forecasting fat-tailed financial returns.
method Comparison of backbone architectures and output heads (point, Gaussian, Gaussian mixture) on S&P 500 monthly log-returns.
result Switching from point to Gaussian heads improves CRPS by about 1.3 percent, and from Gaussian to mixture adds another 2.4 percent.