AI agents improve forecast combination in empirical economics.
problem Hidden researcher degrees of freedom in AI-generated code.
method Adapted agent-loop architecture to empirical economics, added holdout evaluation.
result Independent agent searches find better forecast methods than benchmarks.
Empirical study shows standard CNNs deviate from NTK predictions.
problem Understanding how standard finite-width CNNs behave compared to their infinite-width NTK counterparts.
method Empirical analysis of AlexNet and LeNet architectures.
result Standard CNNs deviate significantly from their NTK counterparts, but deviation decreases with wider networks.
We conduct an empirical study using the quantile-based correlation function to uncover the temporal dependencies in financial time series. The study uses intraday data for the S\&P 500 stocks from the New York Stock Exchange. After establishing an empirical overview we compare the quantile-based correlation function to…
The landscape of empirical risk has been widely studied in a series of machine learning problems, including low-rank matrix factorization, matrix sensing, matrix completion, and phase retrieval. In this work, we focus on the situation where the corresponding population risk is a degenerate non-convex loss function, nam…
We theoretically and empirically study portfolio optimization under transaction costs and establish a link between turnover penalization and covariance shrinkage with the penalization governed by transaction costs. We show how the ex ante incorporation of transaction costs shifts optimal portfolios towards regularized …
Addressing the ongoing examination of high-frequency trading practices in financial markets, we report the results of an extensive empirical study estimating the maximum possible profitability of the most aggressive such practices, and arrive at figures that are surprisingly modest. By "aggressive" we mean any trading …
In this study, we consider an empirical Bayes method for Boltzmann machines and propose an algorithm for it. The empirical Bayes method allows estimation of the values of the hyperparameters of the Boltzmann machine by maximizing a specific likelihood function referred to as the empirical Bayes likelihood function in t…
We discuss the problem of risk estimation in the classification problem, with specific focus on finding distributions that maximize the confidence intervals of risk estimation. We derived simple analytic approximations for the maximum bias of empirical risk for histogram classifier. We carry out a detailed study on usi…
Critiques causal reductionism in financial studies, suggesting alternative approaches.
problem Limitations of unidirectional causation in self-referencing systems like finance.
method Critical assessment of causal inference in empirical finance, using ecological models.
result Current financial tools may be limited to ex post inference, especially in reflexive contexts.
New method predicts binary matrix entries using empirical Bayes and low-rank structure.
problem Predicting unobserved entries in binary matrices.
method Empirical Bayes method motivated by Efron--Morris estimator, exploiting low-rank structure.
result Superior performance in predictive accuracy, calibration, and efficiency compared to existing methods.
Study spectral properties of graph Laplacian for manifold data.
problem Understanding spectral properties of graph Laplacian for manifold data.
method Non-asymptotic error bounds on spectral properties of empirical graph Laplacian.
result Eigenvalues and eigenspaces of empirical graph Laplacian are close to Laplace-Beltrami operator of manifold.
Study on Leverage Ratio in European banks during financial crises.
problem Impact of financial crises on European banks' Leverage Ratio.
method Empirical analysis using regression techniques.
result Leverage Ratio is significantly influenced by financial scenarios.
New method improves model risk prediction using cross-audit projection.
problem Over-optimism in K-fold CV for binary classification. method Cross-audit projection (CAP) procedure combining resampling and asymptotic bias correction.
result CAP estimator achieves second-order asymptotic unbiasedness.
Unified approach to private statistics from empirical to population data.
problem Divided focus on empirical vs population statistics in private statistics.
method Unified methods for both types of statistics.
result Methods for empirical statistics can be applied to population statistics.
Personal income distributions in Japan are analyzed empirically and a simple stochastic model of the income process is proposed. Based on empirical facts, we propose a minimal two-factor model. Our model of personal income consists of an asset accumulation process and a wage process. We show that these simple processes…
Study shows convergence rate for empirical minimizer of unbounded functions with fast growth.
problem Convergence rate of empirical minimizer for unbounded functions with fast growth.
method Analyzes L1-distance convergence rate of the empiric minimizer for coercive functions sampled with noise. result Convergence rate is bounded above by ann−1/q, where q is the dimension and an=o(nε) for every ε>0. Empirical study shows removing neural parameter symmetries impacts model performance.
problem Understanding the impact of neural parameter symmetries on model performance.
method Developed two methods to reduce parameter space symmetries in neural networks.
result Removing parameter symmetries can lead to faster and more effective Bayesian neural network training.
We offer an experimental benchmark and empirical study for off-policy policy evaluation (OPE) in reinforcement learning, which is a key problem in many safety critical applications. Given the increasing interest in deploying learning-based methods, there has been a flurry of recent proposals for OPE method, leading to …
Study finds LLMs hallucinate in finance tasks, needing research.
problem Hallucination in LLMs in finance.
method Empirical investigation of four methods to mitigate hallucination.
result LLMs hallucinate in financial tasks.
All too often measuring statistical dependencies between financial time series is reduced to a linear correlation coefficient. However this may not capture all facets of reality. We study empirical dependencies of daily stock returns by their pairwise copulas. Here we investigate particularly to which extent the non-st…
The paper studies empirical processes from nearest neighbors in regression.
problem Estimating conditional cumulative distribution functions and local linear regression.
method Uniform central limit theorem and non-asymptotic bound under local bracketing entropy and uniform entropy numbers.
result Gaussian limit of empirical process with simple covariance.
ROI-driven data analytics guides investment in empirical data analysis.
problem Determining the optimal depth and breadth of data analytics.
method Conceptual framework validated through empirical studies focusing on dependency extraction in Mozilla Firefox project.
result ROI-driven data analytics helps avoid over-analyzing empirical data.
RL approach for continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection with empirical validation.
problem Continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection in unknown market coefficients.
method Reinforcement learning for diffusion processes, sublinear regret bound derivation.
result RL strategy consistently outperforms model-based counterparts, especially in volatile markets.
Examines optimal risk sharing with realistic risk attitudes, finding risk seeking in certain subdomains.
problem Optimal risk sharing with empirically realistic risk attitudes.
method Allows for risk-seeking agents, generalizes expected utility, and uses counter-monotonic improvement theorem.
result First empirical results on optimal risk sharing with realistic risk attitudes.
We study 'meta-dependence' in conditional independence tests across different empirical distributions.
problem Understanding the breakdown of conditional independence properties in finite data.
method Geometric intuition and information projections to measure meta-dependence between conditional independences.
result We provide a measure of meta-dependence that consolidates findings across synthetic and real-world data.
Empirical Bayes rates via variational approximations and prior decomposition.
problem Nonparametric and high-dimensional inference convergence rates.
method Variational perspective and prior decomposition.
result Empirical Bayes posterior rates derived from variational Bayes.
New method estimates Schrödinger bridge potentials via empirical risk minimization.
problem Estimating Schrödinger bridge potentials from samples.
method Rewriting Schrödinger system as a fixed-point equation and estimating the potential via empirical risk minimization.
result Uniform concentration of empirical risk around population counterpart under sub-Gaussian assumptions.
Study shows effectiveness of offline RL in online RL tasks.
problem Improving online RL efficiency using offline RL data.
method Formalized framework for incorporating offline RL as online RL subroutines, introducing techniques to enhance effectiveness.
result Effectiveness of the framework depends on task nature, techniques greatly enhance effectiveness, and existing methods are ineffective.
This study examines biases in flow matching samplers using finite-sample estimation.
problem Biases in flow matching samplers when using finite-sample surrogates.
method Finite-sample plug-in estimation and hierarchy of empirical FM models.
result Exact empirical minimizer and smoothed plug-in regime identified for affine conditional flows.
Study investigates key design choices in on-policy RL algorithms.
problem Lack of transparency in RL algorithm implementations.
method Implemented >50 design choices in a unified RL framework.
result Insights and recommendations for on-policy RL training.
The study bounds the utility of empirically optimal portfolios using stock return data.
problem Maximizing expected ratio of portfolio utility to best asset utility.
method High probability utility bounds derived from Lipschitz or Hölder continuous utility functions.
result Utility bounds depend on utility function, number of assets, and observations.
We study the dynamics of the limit order book of liquid stocks after experiencing large intra-day price changes. In the data we find large variations in several microscopical measures, e.g., the volatility the bid-ask spread, the bid-ask imbalance, the number of queuing limit orders, the activity (number and volume) of…
We study compressing empirical measures in finite RKHSs using convex optimization.
problem Efficiently approximating empirical measures in high-dimensional spaces.
method Convex optimization and lower bounds on ball size.
result High probability lower bounds on ball size under various conditions.
The paper examines the tilted empirical risk's generalization and robustness under negative tilt.
problem The generalization error of machine learning algorithms under negative tilt.
method Uniform and information-theoretic bounds on the tilted generalization error under negative tilt.
result The tilted empirical risk's generalization error has a convergence rate of \(O(n^{-ε/(1+ε)})\).
Empirical study finds variance swap rate is affine in spot variance for S&P500 data.
problem Investigating the relationship between variance swap rate and spot variance.
method Empirical analysis using S&P500 data from 2006-2018, testing different models.
result Affine relationship between variance swap rate and spot variance is supported.
We present an empirical study of the subordination hypothesis for a stochastic time series of a stock price. The fluctuating rate of trading is identified with the stochastic variance of the stock price, as in the continuous-time random walk (CTRW) framework. The probability distribution of the stock price changes (log…
Introduces BPEL for EL, enhancing flexibility and using MCMC for inference.
problem Computational challenges in EL methods.
method Bayesian Penalized Empirical Likelihood (BPEL) framework with MCMC sampling.
result Enhanced flexibility and practicality of EL methods with MCMC.
This work studies the smooth 1-Wasserstein distance and its limit distribution in high dimensions.
problem Addressing the curse of dimensionality in empirical approximation.
method Conducts a statistical study including limit distribution, bootstrap consistency, and concentration inequalities.
result Derives a nondegenerate limit distribution for empirical SWD, contrasting with classic W1. Paper analyzes time series prediction using empirical risk minimization.
problem Optimizing 1-step-ahead prediction for time series.
method Empirical risk minimization applied to recursive algorithms for time series forecasting.
result Empirical risk minimization achieves optimal predictive performance.
AI agents improve forecast combination but require transparency.
problem AI coding agents increase flexibility in empirical economics, leading to hidden degrees of freedom.
method Adapted open-source agent-loop architecture to empirical economics workflow, adding post-search holdout evaluation.
result Multiple agent runs outperform standard benchmarks in rolling evaluation but not all on post-search holdout.
Efficient Bayesian LMM framework for high-dimensional longitudinal data.
problem Scalability and dependence in high-dimensional longitudinal data.
method Partitioned empirical Bayes ECM algorithm for scalable MAP estimation.
result Identification of genes and clinical factors associated with a lupus biomarker.
Proposes a method for valid inference in GPLSIMs with longitudinal data.
problem Challenges in longitudinal data inference due to within-subject correlation and unstable variance estimation.
method Profile estimating-equation approach using spline approximation and block empirical likelihood.
result Block empirical likelihood ratio statistic with Wilks-type chi-square limit for joint inference.
Following the very recent line of work on the ``generalized min-max'' (GMM) kernel, this study proposes the ``generalized intersection'' (GInt) kernel and the related ``normalized generalized min-max'' (NGMM) kernel. In computer vision, the (histogram) intersection kernel has been popular, and the GInt kernel generaliz…
Empirical study of IRMv1, an invariant risk minimization framework.
problem Learning predictors invariant to spurious correlations across different training environments.
method Extending ColoredMNIST experiment to various settings.
result IRMv1 performs better as spurious correlation varies more widely.
The paper analyzes the performance of empirical risk minimization for p-norm linear regression.
problem Empirical risk minimization on p-norm linear regression. method Analyzes performance under various conditions and moment assumptions.
result High probability excess risk bounds for empirical risk minimizer, matching asymptotic rates.
Publication bias skews asset pricing research findings.
problem Bias in sharing and publishing research findings.
method Meta-studies and empirical Bayes corrections.
result Publication bias effects are minimal and not dominant.
In this preregistration submission, we propose an empirical study of how networks handle changes in complexity of the data. We investigate the effect of network capacity on generalization performance in the face of increasing data complexity. For this, we measure the generalization error for an image classification tas…
Study compares tree-based imputation methods to MICE PMM for missing data.
problem Missing data in empirical studies.
method Various imputation methods including MICE PMM, RF, missRanger, and MIXGBoost.
result Tree-based imputations, especially RF and missRanger with PMM, perform better.