Proves accuracy guarantees for self-supervised learning with correlated positive pairs.
problem Lack of theoretical guarantees for self-supervised learning with correlated positive pairs.
method Novel augmentation graph concept and spectral decomposition loss.
result Provably accurate features under linear probe evaluation.
We carry out a large-scale empirical data analysis to examine the efficiency of the so-called pairs trading. On the basis of relevant three thresholds, namely, starting, profit-taking, and stop-loss for the `first-passage process' of the spread (gap) between two highly-correlated stocks, we construct an effective strat…
Sampling a fraction of pairs can match full evaluation in machine learning losses.
problem High computational cost of full pairwise loss evaluation.
method Survey sampling techniques targeting informative pairs.
result Performance close to full pairwise evaluation achieved with frugal sampling.
The paper introduces a new pairs trading model using nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models.
problem Developing a robust trading strategy for pairs of assets with non-Gaussian and heteroskedastic innovations.
method A nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space model for the spread between two assets, with mean reversion modeled as a mean-reverting process.
result The new trading strategy yields significantly higher returns and Sharpe ratios compared to existing methods.
Pairs Trading is carried out in the financial market to earn huge profits from known equilibrium relation between pairs of stock. In financial markets, seldom it is seen that stock pairs are correlated at particular lead or lag. This lead-lag relationship has been empirically studied in various financial markets. Earli…
This paper unifies three regularization methods in batch reinforcement learning.
problem Learning overly-complex models in batch reinforcement learning.
method Unified weighted average transition matrix framework for three regularization methods.
result Empirical evaluation confirms intuitions about regularization methods' performance.
We propose to use nonparametric Bernstein copulas as bivariate pair-copulas in high-dimensional vine models. The resulting smooth and nonparametric vine copulas completely obviate the error-prone need for choosing the pair-copulas from parametric copula families. By means of a simulation study and an empirical analysis…
Measures three types of noise in LLM evaluations.
problem Separating signal from noise in LLM experiments.
method Defined and measured three types of noise: prediction, data, and total noise. Proposed the all-pairs paired method for statistical power.
result Total noise level is characteristic and predictable across all model pairs.
Paper explains contrastive learning using cosine similarity and proposes mitigations for batch size effects.
problem Understanding and improving contrastive learning through batch size effects.
method Unified framework of cosine similarity, theoretical insights, and auxiliary loss.
result Performance improvement in small-batch settings through proposed auxiliary loss.
MTRGL learns temporal correlations from multi-modal data for improved pair trading.
problem Discerning temporal correlations among financial entities.
method Combines time series data and discrete features into a temporal graph, using a memory-based temporal graph neural network.
result MTRGL outperforms traditional methods in temporal graph link prediction and pair trading.
A novel graphical matching approach improves pairs trading by reducing portfolio variance and risk-adjusted returns.
problem Common pairs trading methods lead to high portfolio variance and low risk-adjusted returns due to focusing on highly cointegrated assets.
method Model all assets and their cointegration levels with a weighted graph. Select pairs as a maximum weighted matching to ensure no shared assets and lower portfolio variance.
result The matching-based strategy shows a significant improvement in risk-adjusted performance, with a gross Sharpe ratio of 1.23.
Deep learning predicts currency volatility accurately.
problem Predicting future volatility in Forex trading.
method Constructed a deep-learning network using multiscale LSTM with multi-currency pairs.
result Multiscale LSTM model outperforms conventional models.
In this paper, we establish a fluid limit for a two--sided Markov order book model. Our main result states that in a certain asymptotic regime, a pair of measure-valued processes representing the "sell-side shape" and "buy-side shape" of an order book converges to a pair of deterministic measure-valued processes in a c…
A new measure scales MMD to assess distribution closeness.
problem Testing statistical significance of distribution closeness.
method Norm-adaptive MMD (NAMMD) for distributional discrepancy.
result NAMMD-based DCT has higher test power than MMD-based DCT.
New method recovers diverse policies from expert data using state-action pair weighting.
problem Recovering diverse policies from expert trajectories.
method Pointwise mutual information weighted behavioral cloning.
result Effective in focusing on state-action pairs most representative of the style.
In this on-going work, I explore certain theoretical and empirical implications of data transformations under the PCA. In particular, I state and prove three theorems about PCA, which I paraphrase as follows: 1). PCA without discarding eigenvector rows is injective, but looses this injectivity when eigenvector rows are…
We present explicit formulas - that are also computer code - for 101 real-life quantitative trading alphas. Their average holding period approximately ranges 0.6-6.4 days. The average pair-wise correlation of these alphas is low, 15.9%. The returns are strongly correlated with volatility, but have no significant depend…
Enhances pairs trading with neural networks and Kalman Filters.
problem Inaccurate linear models in pairs trading lead to suboptimal performance.
method Augments Kalman Filter with Neural Networks to improve financial indicator extraction.
result Empirically shows improved trading performance compared to benchmarks.
Optimal trading strategies for pairs trading have been studied by models that try to find either optimal shares of stocks by assuming no transaction costs or optimal timing of trading fixed numbers of shares of stocks with transaction costs. To find optimal strategies which determine optimally both trade times and numb…
Unified framework for comparing clusterings from information-theoretic and pair-counting perspectives.
problem Divergent evaluations of unsupervised models due to different clustering similarity measures.
method Developed an analytical framework that unifies pair-counting and information-theoretic clustering similarity measures.
result Unified framework clarifies when and why the two regimes diverge and provides a principled basis for selecting and interpreting clustering similarity measures.
We extend the framework of trading strategies of Gatheral [2010] from single stocks to a pair of stocks. Our trading strategy with the executions of two round-trip trades can be described by the trading rates of the paired stocks and the ratio of their trading periods. By minimizing the potential cost arising from cros…
The paper proves impossibilities and positive results for universal machine translation.
problem Learning shared sentence representations across multiple language pairs.
method Formal proofs and analysis of natural generative processes.
result Lower bound on translation error and positive results under natural structure.
Previous studies of the stock price response to individual trades focused on single stocks. We empirically investigate the price response of one stock to the trades of other stocks. How large is the impact of one stock on others and vice versa? -- This impact of trades on the price change across stocks appears to be tr…
Study shows post-COVID commodity futures returns and volatility changed for different products.
problem Analyzing how the pandemic affected Chinese commodity futures markets.
method Empirical analysis of commodity futures returns and cointegration before and after the pandemic.
result Post-COVID, some commodity futures returns increased significantly, while others saw higher volatility.
Recent state-of-the-art natural language understanding models, such as BERT and XLNet, score a pair of sentences (A and B) using multiple cross-attention operations - a process in which each word in sentence A attends to all words in sentence B and vice versa. As a result, computing the similarity between a query sente…
Diffusion models learn simple statistics before complex ones, revealing a sample complexity exponent.
problem Understanding the learning dynamics of diffusion models.
method Empirical observations and theoretical analysis of diffusion models and denoisers.
result Diffusion models learn simple statistics (pair-wise correlations) at linear sample complexity, while higher-order statistics (e.g., fourth cumulant) require cubic sample complexity.
This paper extends Median-of-Means to new learning problems involving pairwise comparisons.
problem Learning from pairwise comparisons in machine learning.
method Segmenting data into blocks, comparing pairs of decision rules, and declaring the winner based on majority performance.
result The Median-of-Means approach maintains robustness and performance under various sampling schemes.
We study the long memory of order flow for each of three liquid currency pairs on a large electronic trading platform in the foreign exchange (FX) spot market. Due to the extremely high levels of market activity on the platform, and in contrast to existing empirical studies of other markets, our data enables us to perf…
When stock prices are observed at high frequencies, more information can be utilized in estimation of parameters of the price process. However, high-frequency data are contaminated by the market microstructure noise which causes significant bias in parameter estimation when not taken into account. We propose an estimat…
Augmented bridge matching preserves coupling information between distributions.
problem Preserving the original empirical pairing in flow and bridge matching processes.
method Augmenting the velocity field with initial sample point information.
result Simple modification recovers coupling information without losing Markovian property.
Learning disentangled representations that correspond to factors of variation in real-world data is critical to interpretable and human-controllable machine learning. Recently, concerns about the viability of learning disentangled representations in a purely unsupervised manner has spurred a shift toward the incorporat…
Study shows AMM liquidity providers lose more than they earn, with varying profitability across pairs.
problem Arbitrage losses by liquidity providers on AMMs exceed fees earned.
method Empirical study of losses and profitability across different AMM pools and block times.
result Uniswap v2 pools are more profitable for passive LPs than Uniswap v3.
PAIR optimizes machine learning models to generalize better to out-of-distribution data.
problem Optimization of machine learning models for out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization often leads to compromises that weaken robustness.
method Introduces a multi-objective optimization (MOO) perspective and a new optimization scheme called PAreto Invariant Risk Minimization (PAIR).
result PAIR improves robustness of OOD objectives by cooperatively optimizing with other objectives, yielding top OOD performances.
This work compares human feedback methods for reward learning in bandits.
problem Understanding how human feedback affects the performance of reward learning methods.
method Theoretical comparison of human feedback approaches in offline contextual bandits.
result Human bias and uncertainty in feedback modeling impact the theoretical guarantees of reward learning methods.
Deep neural networks identify robust arbitrage strategies in financial markets.
problem Identifying profitable trading strategies under model ambiguity.
method Data-driven deep neural networks considering high-dimensional financial markets.
result Empirical investigations show profitable trading performances in various market conditions.
A simple framework improves deep metric learning performance.
problem Imbalanced data pairs in pairwise deep metric learning.
method Formulated a robust loss for balanced pairs over mini-batches, using distributionally robust optimization.
result Empirically outperforms state-of-the-art methods.
ALPINE predicts links in networks by querying the most informative pairs.
problem Predicting links in partially observed networks efficiently.
method Active learning using network embedding.
result ALPINE achieves significant link prediction accuracy with fewer queries.
New method learns useful disentangled representations from weakly labeled data.
problem Learning useful representations from weakly labeled data.
method Model pairs of non-i.i.d. images, learn disentangled representations without requiring annotation.
result Learn disentangled representations reliably from pairs of images without requiring group, individual factor, or number of changed factors annotation.
New estimators improve Rasch model item parameter estimation for sparse data.
problem Estimating item parameters in sparse Rasch model data.
method Random pairing maximum likelihood estimator (RP-MLE) and its bootstrapped variant (MRP-MLE).
result RP-MLE and MRP-MLE are minimax optimal and provide precise item parameter estimates.
Networks are ubiquitous in biology and computational approaches have been largely investigated for their inference. In particular, supervised machine learning methods can be used to complete a partially known network by integrating various measurements. Two main supervised frameworks have been proposed: the local appro…
Geometric approach for unsupervised word embedding alignment.
problem Learning alignment between word embeddings of source and target languages.
method Formulates alignment as domain adaptation on the manifold of doubly stochastic matrices, employing Riemannian conjugate gradient algorithm.
result Empirically outperforms state-of-the-art methods on bilingual lexicon induction tasks.
In prior research, a statistically cheap method was developed to monitor transportation network performance by using only a few groups of agents without having to forecast the population flows. The current study validates this "multi-agent inverse optimization" method using taxi GPS probe data from the city of Wuhan, C…
Multi-armed bandit(MAB) problem is a reinforcement learning framework where an agent tries to maximise her profit by proper selection of actions through absolute feedback for each action. The dueling bandits problem is a variation of MAB problem in which an agent chooses a pair of actions and receives relative feedback…
New findings reveal discount regularization can be seen as a strong prior, leading to poor performance in unevenly sampled data.
problem Discount regularization leads to poor performance in unevenly sampled data.
method Equivalence theorem showing discount regularization as a strong prior, setting regularization parameters locally for individual state-action pairs.
result Discount regularization can be seen as a strong prior, leading to poor performance in unevenly sampled data.
Deep learning algorithms have increasingly been shown to lack robustness to simple adversarial examples (AdvX). An equally troubling observation is that these adversarial examples transfer between different architectures trained on different datasets. We investigate the transferability of adversarial examples between m…
Bayesian Empirical Bayes extends EB to complex structures using probabilistic symmetry.
problem Improving simultaneous inference in complex settings like arrays and graphs.
method Generalized empirical Bayes approach based on probabilistic symmetry.
result BEB outperforms existing methods in denoising arrays and spatial data.
The Bellman error is a poor proxy for value function accuracy, even with all state-action pairs.
problem The Bellman error is a poor proxy for the accuracy of the value function.
method Study of the Bellman equation as a surrogate objective for value prediction accuracy.
result The magnitude of the Bellman error is only weakly related to the distance to the true value function, even with all state-action pairs.
The paper proves probabilistic alignment between unseen modalities using contrastive learning.
problem Aligning unseen modalities in unsupervised learning.
method Bayesian approach and direct comparison of contrastive representations.
result Direct comparison of contrastive representations recovers the same likelihood ratio as probabilistic graphical models.