A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Examines optimal risk sharing with realistic risk attitudes, finding risk seeking in certain subdomains.
Raising statistical hurdles may not be justified due to data bias.
Empirical study finds variance swap rate is affine in spot variance for S&P500 data.
Publication bias skews asset pricing research findings.
VL finds flatter solutions at edge of stability, matching theory with practice.
We discuss the problem of risk estimation in the classification problem, with specific focus on finding distributions that maximize the confidence intervals of risk estimation. We derived simple analytic approximations for the maximum bias of empirical risk for histogram classifier. We carry out a detailed study on usi…
This work investigates fundamental questions related to learning features in convolutional neural networks (CNN). Empirical findings across multiple architectures such as VGG, ResNet, Inception, DenseNet and MobileNet indicate that weights near the center of a filter are larger than weights on the outside. Current regu…
Understanding optimal prompts for binary sequence predictors is challenging.
Mode connectivity is a recently introduced frame- work that empirically establishes the connected- ness of minima by finding a high accuracy curve between two independently trained models. To investigate the limits of this setup, we examine the efficacy of this technique in extreme cases where the input models are trai…
Greedy selection finds smaller, more accurate subnetworks.
Study finds LLMs hallucinate in finance tasks, needing research.
This paper presents a new model for pricing financial derivatives subject to collateralization. It allows for collateral arrangements adhering to bankruptcy laws. As such, the model can back out the market price of a collateralized contract. This framework is very useful for valuing outstanding derivatives. Using a uni…
Empirical study on UEEs reveals liquidity's role and universal recovery patterns.
Gradient descent with large momentum finds flatter minima.
The abstract warns against flawed empirical research in machine learning.
We empirically evaluate common assumptions about neural networks that are widely held by practitioners and theorists alike. In this work, we: (1) prove the widespread existence of suboptimal local minima in the loss landscape of neural networks, and we use our theory to find examples; (2) show that small-norm parameter…
This work finds mixed equilibria in zero-sum games using interacting particle dynamics.
AI agents improve forecast combination in empirical economics.
We information-theoretically reformulate two measures of capacity from statistical learning theory: empirical VC-entropy and empirical Rademacher complexity. We show these capacity measures count the number of hypotheses about a dataset that a learning algorithm falsifies when it finds the classifier in its repertoire …
We consider a mean-reverting stochastic volatility model which satisfies some relevant stylized facts of financial markets. We introduce an algorithm for the detection of peaks in the volatility profile, that we apply to the time series of Dow Jones Industrial Average and Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 in the perio…
We conduct an empirical study using the quantile-based correlation function to uncover the temporal dependencies in financial time series. The study uses intraday data for the S\&P 500 stocks from the New York Stock Exchange. After establishing an empirical overview we compare the quantile-based correlation function to…
We study the dynamics of the limit order book of liquid stocks after experiencing large intra-day price changes. In the data we find large variations in several microscopical measures, e.g., the volatility the bid-ask spread, the bid-ask imbalance, the number of queuing limit orders, the activity (number and volume) of…
We analyze empirical data for 4,000 real-life trading portfolios (U.S. equities) with holding periods of about 0.7-19 trading days. We find a simple scaling C ~ 1/T, where C is cents-per-share, and T is the portfolio turnover. Thus, the portfolio return R has no statistically significant dependence on the turnover T. W…
The paper compares theoretical and empirical performance of imputation methods for missing data.
To understand the empirical success of approximate MAP inference, recent work (Lang et al., 2018) has shown that some popular approximation algorithms perform very well when the input instance is stable. The simplest stability condition assumes that the MAP solution does not change at all when some of the pairwise pote…
Backward exploration reduces sample complexity in policy evaluation.
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We also show that, under some asumptions, universal consisten…
The paper finds a pervasive and severe bias in accounting semi-identity models.
This paper reformulates systemic risk measures and finds new properties and estimators.
Study finds adding more information to robust option pricing does not improve bounds.
Bayesian neural networks can be partially stochastic without losing predictive power.
A new method sorts models to find the best one with minimal risk.
Addressing the ongoing examination of high-frequency trading practices in financial markets, we report the results of an extensive empirical study estimating the maximum possible profitability of the most aggressive such practices, and arrive at figures that are surprisingly modest. By "aggressive" we mean any trading …
Econophysics and econometrics agree that there is a correlation between volume and volatility in a time series. Using empirical data and their distributions, we further investigate this correlation and discover new ways that volatility and volume interact, particularly when the levels of both are high. We find that the…
The Basel II internal ratings-based (IRB) approach to capital adequacy for credit risk implements an asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) model. Measurements from the ASRF model of the prevailing state of Australia's economy and the level of capitalisation of its banking sector find general agreement with macroeconomic…
Empirical study shows consistent meta-RL algorithms adapt to OOD tasks.
We present explicit formulas - that are also computer code - for 101 real-life quantitative trading alphas. Their average holding period approximately ranges 0.6-6.4 days. The average pair-wise correlation of these alphas is low, 15.9%. The returns are strongly correlated with volatility, but have no significant depend…
We show that world trade network datasets contain empirical evidence that the dynamics of innovation in the world economy follows indeed the concept of creative destruction, as proposed by J.A. Schumpeter more than half a century ago. National economies can be viewed as complex, evolving systems, driven by a stream of …
Study finds managers' tenure and education influence their choice between in-court and out-of-court restructuring.
Neural Empirical Bayes estimates source distributions from noisy simulations.
All too often measuring statistical dependencies between financial time series is reduced to a linear correlation coefficient. However this may not capture all facets of reality. We study empirical dependencies of daily stock returns by their pairwise copulas. Here we investigate particularly to which extent the non-st…
We propose an estimator and confidence interval for computing the value of a policy from off-policy data in the contextual bandit setting. To this end we apply empirical likelihood techniques to formulate our estimator and confidence interval as simple convex optimization problems. Using the lower bound of our confiden…
We find empirically a characteristic sharp peak-flat trough pattern in a large set of commodity prices. We argue that the sharp peak structure reflects an endogenous inter-market organization, and that peaks may be seen as local ``singularities'' resulting from imitation and herding. These findings impose a novel strin…
We study the dependence structure of market states by estimating empirical pairwise copulas of daily stock returns. We consider both original returns, which exhibit time-varying trends and volatilities, as well as locally normalized ones, where the non-stationarity has been removed. The empirical pairwise copula for ea…
A new clustering method handles uncertain covariates efficiently.
Empirical study shows standard CNNs deviate from NTK predictions.
Develops a method to find costly high-confidence errors in black box models.
The paper proves deep learning can be robust with certain loss functions.