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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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101202303404 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for empirical bootstrap

Paper explores using bootstrap methods to improve SGD's stability and robustness.

problem Improving the stability and robustness of SGD.
method Investigates empirical bootstrap approaches for SGD from algorithmic stability and statistical robustness perspectives.
result Demonstrates construction of purely distribution-free confidence intervals using bootstrap SGD.

The paper improves the empirical bootstrap method for non-normal estimators.

problem Theoretical properties of empirical bootstrap for non-asymptotically normal estimators.
method Establishing limiting distribution, deriving consistency conditions, proposing alternative methods.
result The empirical bootstrap method can be asymptotically consistent under stability conditions.

Develops statistical confidence sets for multidimensional scaling.

problem Statistical uncertainty in multidimensional scaling of noisy data.
method Formal statistical framework, distributional convergence results, uniform confidence sets, bootstrap procedures.
result Construction of reliable confidence sets for latent configurations in multidimensional scaling.

Optimizes a small set of centroid points to approximate bootstrap distribution.

problem Computational inefficiency of standard bootstrap methods in large-scale machine learning.
method Explicitly optimizes a small set of high quality centroid points to approximate the ideal bootstrap distribution.
result Accurately estimates uncertainty with a small number of bootstrap centroids, outperforming i.i.d. sampling.

The bootstrap provides a simple and powerful means of assessing the quality of estimators. However, in settings involving large datasets, the computation of bootstrap-based quantities can be prohibitively demanding. As an alternative, we present the Bag of Little Bootstraps (BLB), a new procedure which incorporates fea…

2012-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

We investigate the use of bootstrapping in the bandit setting. We first show that the commonly used non-parametric bootstrapping (NPB) procedure can be provably inefficient and establish a near-linear lower bound on the regret incurred by it under the bandit model with Bernoulli rewards. We show that NPB with an approp…

2018-05-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Validates network bootstraps for uncertainty quantification in network visualisation.

problem Quantifying uncertainty in network embeddings when only a single observation is available.
method Statistical indistinguishable embeddings using k-nearest neighbour smoothing, validated by an exchangeable network test.
result Proposes a principled, distribution-free network bootstrap that passes the exchangeable network test.

A new clustering method using Bayesian techniques improves robustness and interpretability.

problem Improving clustering techniques for better robustness and interpretability.
method The paper proposes a novel Bayesian clustering method using the proper Bayesian bootstrap, which combines k-means clustering and ensemble clustering.
result The method provides clear indication on the optimal number of clusters and a better representation of the clustered data.

The bootstrap provides a simple and powerful means of assessing the quality of estimators. However, in settings involving large datasets---which are increasingly prevalent---the computation of bootstrap-based quantities can be prohibitively demanding computationally. While variants such as subsampling and the mm out o…

2011-12-21abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce a bootstrap procedure for high-frequency statistics of Brownian semistationary processes. More specifically, we focus on a hypothesis test on the roughness of sample paths of Brownian semistationary processes, which uses an estimator based on a ratio of realized power variations. Our new resampling method,…

2016-05-03abs ↗pdf ↗

In distributed, or privacy-preserving learning, we are often given a set of probabilistic models estimated from different local repositories, and asked to combine them into a single model that gives efficient statistical estimation. A simple method is to linearly average the parameters of the local models, which, howev…

2016-07-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Non-parametric bootstrap improves robust portfolio and trading strategy optimization.

problem Mitigating uncertainty in expected returns and covariances in financial decision-making.
method Non-parametric bootstrap framework for robust optimization without distributional assumptions.
result Improved out-of-sample performance with smoother, more stable results.

This paper examines the use of a residual bootstrap for bias correction in machine learning regression methods. Accounting for bias is an important obstacle in recent efforts to develop statistical inference for machine learning methods. We demonstrate empirically that the proposed bootstrap bias correction can lead to…

2015-06-01abs ↗pdf ↗

SGD improves generalization by using gradient variability as a proxy for data randomness.

problem Improving generalization in machine learning models trained with stochastic gradient descent.
method Bootstrap perspective on SGD, analyzing gradient variability and algorithmic variability.
result SGD avoids spurious solutions and improves generalization by implicitly regularizing the trace of the gradient covariance matrix.

This work uses statistical bootstrapping to provide accurate confidence intervals for policy value in reinforcement learning.

problem Bias in estimating policy value using empirical transitions and rewards.
method Statistical bootstrapping to produce calibrated confidence intervals for the true policy value.
result Statistical bootstrapping can yield correct confidence intervals under certain conditions, and mechanisms are proposed to mitigate these conditions.

The study identifies extremal dependence in financial markets using a bootstrap-based testing procedure.

problem Accurately identifying extremal dependence in multivariate heavy-tailed financial data.
method Bootstrap-based testing procedure applied to U.S. and Chinese stock returns.
result The U.S. exhibits more isolated clustering of dependent assets compared to China.

Deep ensembles effectively capture epistemic uncertainty through training stochasticity, providing a frequentist perspective.

problem Understanding and quantifying epistemic uncertainty in machine learning models.
method Bootstrap-based estimator and decomposition of deep ensembles into data variability and training stochasticity.
result Deep ensembles primarily capture training stochasticity, explaining their effectiveness in quantifying epistemic uncertainty.

The intention of this paper is to estimate a Bayesian distribution-free chain ladder (DFCL) model using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methodology. We demonstrate how to estimate quantities of interest in claims reserving and compare the estimates to those obtained from classical and credibility approaches. In …

2010-04-15abs ↗pdf ↗

We develop and implement a novel fast bootstrap for dependent data. Our scheme is based on the i.i.d. resampling of the smoothed moment indicators. We characterize the class of parametric and semi-parametric estimation problems for which the method is valid. We show the asymptotic refinements of the proposed procedure,…

2020-01-14abs ↗pdf ↗

TD learning reduces interference, leading to better generalization.

problem Understanding and reducing interference in TD learning for better generalization.
method Analyzing the inner product of gradients as interference, comparing TD and supervised learning, and examining the dynamics of interference and bootstrapping.
result TD learning leads to low-interference, under-generalizing parameters, while supervised learning does the opposite.

Improved time series causal discovery with bootstrap aggregation and confidence measures.

problem Uncertainty estimation in time series causal discovery.
method Bootstrap aggregation and confidence measures for time series causal discovery.
result Bagged-PCMCI+ improves precision and recall compared to PCMCI+.

We address the problem of Bayesian structure learning for domains with hundreds of variables by employing non-parametric bootstrap, recursively. We propose a method that covers both model averaging and model selection in the same framework. The proposed method deals with the main weakness of constraint-based learning--…

2018-09-13abs ↗pdf ↗

This study evaluates methods for constructing prediction intervals with neural networks.

problem Lack of confidence measures in neural network predictions limits their applicability.
method Two-step experiment using bootstrapping and conformal inference methods.
result Cross-conformal method provides best performance with reasonable computational burden.

AR-Sieve Bootstrap improves Random Forest time series prediction accuracy.

problem Inaccurate time series prediction due to inadequate resampling methods.
method Combines Random Forest with AR-Sieve Bootstrap for better resampling.
result AR-Sieve Bootstrap leads to more accurate predictions compared to other methods.

We consider the performance of the bootstrap in high-dimensions for the setting of linear regression, where p<np<n but p/np/n is not close to zero. We consider ordinary least-squares as well as robust regression methods and adopt a minimalist performance requirement: can the bootstrap give us good confidence intervals fo…

2016-08-02abs ↗pdf ↗

New bootstraps improve speed and accuracy for graph count functionals.

problem Efficiently counting subgraphs in large graphs.
method Developed two types of multiplier bootstraps: a fast, approximate linear one and a quadratic one for denser graphs.
result Both bootstraps provide valid inference and higher-order accuracy under different graph sparsity conditions.

New method corrects bias in estimating entropic risk for better decision-making.

problem Underestimation of entropic risk when data are limited.
method Parametric bootstrap procedure to overestimate entropic risk.
result Corrected method provides better risk estimates, leading to improved decision-making.

We compare the model-free reinforcement learning with the model-based approaches through the lens of the expressive power of neural networks for policies, QQ-functions, and dynamics. We show, theoretically and empirically, that even for one-dimensional continuous state space, there are many MDPs whose optimal QQ-func…

2019-10-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Three bootstrap tests compare categorical time series generating processes.

problem Testing equality of generating processes in categorical time series.
method Proposes three tests using dissimilarity measures and bootstrap methods.
result Advantages and disadvantages of each bootstrap method discussed.

New methods improve uncertainty in machine learning predictions for asset returns.

problem Uncertainty in machine learning predictions for asset returns.
method Developed new methods to construct forecast confidence intervals for expected returns from neural networks.
result Neural network forecasts of expected returns have the same asymptotic distribution as classic nonparametric methods, enabling standard error calculation.

Bootstrap method for Markov chains in reinforcement learning.

problem Distributional consistency in finite controlled Markov chains with unknown control policies.
method Model-based bootstrap with novel LLN and CLT for visitation counts and transition increments.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals for value and QQ-functions in offline RL.