Unified analytic account of correlation emergence and Epps effect in coupled limit order books
problem Correlation emergence and Epps effect in coupled limit order books
method Discrete random-walk description of order flow with creation, cancellation, and diffusion, coupled reaction-diffusion equations with moving reaction boundary
result Realized correlations as a function of aggregation time
Noise-driven neural networks emerge modular structures, improving robustness and generalization.
problem Artificial neural networks struggle with modular solutions, leading to poor generalization and robustness.
method Inspired by brain's modular architecture, the study uses neural noise and nonlinear responses to drive the emergence of modular solutions.
result Noise-driven modularisation improves robustness and generalization in neural networks.
Decades of research on the neural code underlying spatial navigation have revealed a diverse set of neural response properties. The Entorhinal Cortex (EC) of the mammalian brain contains a rich set of spatial correlates, including grid cells which encode space using tessellating patterns. However, the mechanisms and fu…
Study analyzes non-Markovian effects in financial markets over multiple years.
problem Understanding non-Markovian dynamics and trader interactions in financial markets.
method Empirical analysis of self-response functions and trade sign correlators for different stocks over multiple years.
result Significant variations in traders' interactions over time, indicating changes in market mechanisms.
Spatially-aware model improves earthquake hazard assessment accuracy.
problem Misrepresentation of seismic effects across diverse landscapes.
method Causal Bayesian network with Gaussian Processes and normalizing flows.
result Achieves up to 35.2% AUC improvement over existing methods.
A crucial and time-sensitive task when any disaster occurs is to rescue victims and distribute resources to the right groups and locations. This task is challenging in populated urban areas, due to the huge burst of help requests generated in a very short period. To improve the efficiency of the emergency response in t…
The paper studies how grid cell patterns emerge in neural networks.
problem Understanding how grid cells in the brain form hexagonal firing patterns.
method Training recurrent neural networks with conformal normalization of velocity inputs.
result Conformal normalization is crucial for the emergence of hexagonal grid patterns in neural networks.
BART is extended to handle various response variables.
problem Modeling nonlinear regression functions for diverse response types.
method Generalized Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (GBART) for exponential family distributions.
result The posterior concentrates at a minimax rate for certain response distributions.
Crowdsourced data helps detect incidents faster, balancing accuracy and practicality.
problem Detecting incidents from crowdsourced data is challenging due to noise and uncertainty.
method CROME (Crowdsourced Multi-objective Event Detection) uses CNN and Pareto optimization.
result The approach outperforms existing methods in incident detection and practicality.
Study finds anomalies in high-frequency S&P 500 price changes.
problem Anomalies in high-frequency S&P 500 price changes.
method Using NBBO event-time data, the study forms pairs of backward and forward price increments, standardizes them, and estimates expected responses on a fine grid of push magnitudes.
result Persistent structural shift in expected responses: near zero for short lags, pronounced tails for long lags, indicating correlation between larger historical pushes and nonzero responses.
LaRT models LLMs' response accuracy and CoT length to evaluate reasoning ability and speed.
problem Valid evaluation of Large Language Models (LLMs) via response accuracy and chain-of-thought length.
method Introduces Latency-Response Theory (LaRT) to jointly model response accuracy and CoT length using latent ability and latent speed.
result LaRT yields higher estimation accuracy and shorter confidence intervals for latent traits compared to IRT.
DASC combines social media and car sensors to improve disaster response.
problem Inconsistent reliability and inconsistent availability of human sensors.
method Hybrid social-car sensing system using game theory, feedback control, and MDP.
result DASC improves detection accuracy and efficiency in disaster response.
New method decomposes local projections to reveal historical drivers of estimates.
problem Uncertainty in interpreting local projections due to black-box nature.
method Decomposes LP estimates into contributions of historical events, interpreting weights as shocks and proximity scores.
result Dominant historical events drive impulse response estimates, revealing underlying mechanisms.
A central challenge in neuroscience is to understand neural computations and circuit mechanisms that underlie the encoding of ethologically relevant, natural stimuli. In multilayered neural circuits, nonlinear processes such as synaptic transmission and spiking dynamics present a significant obstacle to the creation of…
LLMs show surprising confidence in their answers, beyond just tokens.
problem LLMs lack meaningful confidence estimates for their responses.
method Semantic calibration test based on local loss optimality and equivalence classes.
result Base LLMs are semantically calibrated across tasks, contrary to expectations.
Viral zoonoses have emerged as the key drivers of recent pandemics. Human infection by zoonotic viruses are either spillover events -- isolated infections that fail to cause a widespread contagion -- or species jumps, where successful adaptation to the new host leads to a pandemic. Despite expensive bio-surveillance ef…
We introduce a stochastic model to explain a double power-law distribution which exhibits two different Paretian behaviors in the upper and the lower tail and widely exists in social and economic systems. The model incorporates fitness consideration and noise fluctuation. We find that if the number of variables (e.g. t…
Hybrid deep learning model predicts urban floods with high accuracy.
problem Urban flood prediction and situation awareness using channel network sensors data.
method FastGRNN-FCN hybrid deep learning model trained on Harris County, Texas flood data.
result Test accuracy and F-measure reach 97.8% and 0.792, respectively.
In the light of contemporary discussions of inter and transdisciplinarity, this paper approaches econophysics and sociophysics to seek a response to the question -- whether these interdisciplinary fields could contribute to physics and economics. Drawing upon the literature on history and philosophy of science, the pap…
Develops a framework for analyzing multi-agent and many-body systems with feedback loops.
problem Optimal order of multi-agent and general many-body systems
method Derive macroscopic properties and optimal degree of order
result Optimal degree of order balances productivity, stability, and adaptability
dalex simplifies model exploration and fairness for Python developers.
problem Model black-box nature and risks of discrimination, lack of reproducibility, and data drift.
method Model-agnostic interface for interactive model exploration.
result Enhances model transparency and accountability through interactive explainability and fairness.
In experimental design, we are given a large collection of vectors, each with a hidden response value that we assume derives from an underlying linear model, and we wish to pick a small subset of the vectors such that querying the corresponding responses will lead to a good estimator of the model. A classical approach …
The dual crises of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the global financial crisis has prompted a call for explanations of non-equilibrium market dynamics. Recently a promising approach has been the use of agent based models (ABMs) to simulate aggregate market dynamics. A key aspect of these models is the endogenous emer…
We analyze DMs using spectral methods to design effective noise schedules.
problem Lack of theoretical foundation for synthesis process decisions in DMs.
method Introduced a frequency response perspective based on Gaussianity assumption.
result Proposed a spectral transfer function to understand DM inference process.
We describe two recently proposed machine learning approaches for discovering emerging trends in fatal accidental drug overdoses. The Gaussian Process Subset Scan enables early detection of emerging patterns in spatio-temporal data, accounting for both the non-iid nature of the data and the fact that detecting subtle p…
MoA framework improves financial LLM responses at low cost.
problem Complexity and cost in LLM research for financial domains.
method Mixture of Agents (MoA) framework using customized small models.
result MoA produces higher quality responses at lower costs.
This study shows how social insects and machine learning methods share a common mathematical framework.
problem Understanding how decentralized systems achieve optimal decision-making.
method Developed a rigorous mathematical framework to show isomorphism between ant colonies and ensemble machine learning.
result Demonstrated that ant colony decision-making and random forest learning implement identical variance reduction strategies through decorrelation of identical units.
Paper proposes a robust RLHF algorithm for LLMs, improving response preference over baselines.
problem Reward model misspecifications in RLHF for LLMs.
method Proposes a robust algorithm to reduce reward and policy estimator variance, theoretically and empirically validated.
result Consistently outperforms existing methods on LLM benchmark datasets, favoring 77-81% of responses over baselines.
Study compares market microstructure between two South African exchanges.
problem Understanding price response dynamics and market microstructure differences between two South African exchanges.
method Comparative analysis of returns distributions, auto-correlations, price impact, and trading costs on different time scales.
result Similar stylized facts emerge as measurement time scale increases, but price responses vary significantly.
Study examines market response to concentrated policy communication using entropy measures.
problem Characterizing market response under concentrated policy communication.
method Jointly examines dispersion and information complexity (entropy) using sliding window cumulative entropy.
result Entropy captures both market volatility and narrative constraints, signaling coherent policy-driven moves.
High-speed model accurately simulates neuromorphic devices.
problem Accurately modeling stochastic synapses in large-scale neuromorphic systems.
method Generative vector autoregressive model based on resistive memory cell data.
result Fast, high-throughput model reproduces synaptic parameters and correlations.
The presence of non linear instruments is responsible for the emergence of non Gaussian features in the price changes distribution of realistic portfolios, even for Normally distributed risk factors. This is especially true for the benchmark Delta Gamma Normal model, which in general exhibits exponentially damped power…
We present an analysis of the price impact associated with trades effected by different financial firms. Using data from the Spanish Stock Market, we find a high degree of heterogeneity across different market members, both in the instantaneous impact functions and in the time-dependent market response to trades by ind…
New framework recovers reward and rationality parameters from game behavior.
problem Statistical ambiguity in identifying reward and rationality parameters in competitive games.
method Blind Inverse Game Theory (Blind-IGT) using entropy-regularized Quantal Response Equilibrium and Normalized Least Squares (NLS) estimator.
result Optimal convergence rate of O(N−1/2) for joint parameter recovery. Bayesian approach tackles collinearity in large-scale linear system identification.
problem Collinearity in large-scale linear system identification.
method Bayesian regularization framework with Gaussian process and stable spline kernel. Novel Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme.
result Efficiently reconstructs impulse responses posterior by dealing with collinearity.
Enhances FAVAR models with autoencoder for better economic forecasting and interpretability.
problem Limitations of linear FAVAR models in forecasting and structural analysis.
method Introduces Grouped Sparse autoencoder with time-varying parameters.
result The Grouped Sparse autoencoder produces more interpretable factors and superior forecasting performance.
A new AMM mechanism reduces losses and maximizes revenue from orderflows.
problem Reduces losses to informed orderflow and maximizes revenue from uninformed orderflow.
method Runs an onchain auction for pool manager role, allowing fee setting and price sensitivity.
result Proves higher liquidity in equilibrium compared to standard AMMs.
With the rapid growth of e-Commerce, online product search has emerged as a popular and effective paradigm for customers to find desired products and engage in online shopping. However, there is still a big gap between the products that customers really desire to purchase and relevance of products that are suggested in…
Framework extracts symptoms from EHRs for rapid disease outbreak detection.
problem Extracting relevant data from unstructured medical texts.
method Conformal active learning for efficient data mining.
result Framework achieves strong performance with minimal manual labeling.
Develops conformalized prediction intervals for bounded continuous outcomes.
problem Predicting continuous outcomes within bounded ranges, especially when models are misspecified.
method Conformal prediction intervals based on transformation regression models, accounting for heteroscedasticity and asymmetry.
result Valid finite-sample coverage confirmed in simulations and real data applications.
New methods for selecting variables in complex biomedical data.
problem Selecting important variables in multivariate, functional, and complex biomedical data.
method Optimization-based variable selection methods for various regression models.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods in accuracy and speed.
Two models predict similar high-frequency price dynamics but differ in low-frequency impact strength.
problem Understanding the relationship between market prices and fundamental information.
method Comparing a microfounded linear model with a data-driven model at high and low frequencies.
result Both models predict similar high-frequency price dynamics but differ in low-frequency impact strength.
GENOT matches cells across data modalities using neural OT solvers.
problem Scalability, privacy, and out-of-sample estimation issues in traditional OT solvers.
method Learn stochastic maps, parameterize OT maps, relax mass conservation, integrate quadratic solvers.
result Demonstrates significant potential for enhancing therapeutic strategies.
Recent work suggests goal-driven training of neural networks can be used to model neural activity in the brain. While response properties of neurons in artificial neural networks bear similarities to those in the brain, the network architectures are often constrained to be different. Here we ask if a neural network can…
Bayesian pliable lasso with horseshoe prior models interactions in GLMs with missing data.
problem Modeling interactions in sparse regression problems with missing responses.
method Bayesian pliable lasso with hierarchical horseshoe prior for sparsity and uncertainty quantification.
result Advantages over existing methods in recovering complex interaction patterns under incomplete data.
Differentially private geodesic regression for non-Euclidean data.
problem Protecting sensitive data on non-linear spaces like manifolds.
method K-Norm Gradient (KNG) mechanism for Riemannian manifolds.
result Theoretical bounds for sensitivity of geodesic regression parameters.
New measure EC assesses node contributions in nonlinear, time-varying systems.
problem Existing node contribution measures assume linear, time-invariant dynamics, failing for complex, real-world systems.
method Defined 'emergent contribution (EC)' as a dynamical leverage measure from Jacobians of differentiable models.
result EC diverges from average controllability under persistent regime switching and sign reversal, identifying limits of local linearization.
This paper explores adaptive neural activation in RNNs for better learning.
problem Fixed neural activation functions limit the performance and adaptability of RNNs.
method Developed a novel parametric family of nonlinear activation functions inspired by biological neurons.
result Adaptive neural activation improves learning speed and performance in RNNs.