A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New framework for interpretable firm characteristics factors.
New interpretation reconciles country and product complexity.
Enhances FAVAR models with autoencoder for better economic forecasting and interpretability.
Study uses IMFs and neural networks to predict economic time series, enhancing interpretability.
ARTEMIS combines deep learning and symbolic reasoning for financial predictions.
Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that historical economic growth had a natural tendency to follow hyperbolic distributions. Parameters describing hyperbolic distributions have been determined. A search …
Machine learning models predict US economic recessions using Treasury term spreads.
Interpretable neural networks improve economic research by balancing accuracy and transparency.
The paper presents instructive interdisciplinary applications of constrained mechanics calculus in economics on a level appropriate for the undergraduate physics education. The aim of the paper is: 1. to meet the demand for illustrative examples suitable for presenting the background of the highly expanding research fi…
The goal of this article is to understand some interesting features of sequences of arbitrage operations, which look relevant to various processes in Economics and Finances. In the second part of the paper, analysis of sequences of arbitrages is reformulated in the linear algebra terms. This admits an elegant geometric…
PENN neural network estimates parameter distributions for econ models.
A new constructivist approach to modeling in economics and theory of consciousness is proposed. The state of elementary object is defined as a set of its measurable consumer properties. A proprietor's refusal or consent for the offered transaction is considered as a result of elementary economic measurement. We were al…
We review some statistical many-agent models of economic and social systems inspired by microscopic molecular models and discuss their stochastic interpretation. We apply these models to wealth exchange in economics and study how the relaxation process depends on the parameters of the system, in particular on the savin…
We provide an economic interpretation of the practice consisting in incorporating risk measures as constraints in a classic expected return maximization problem. For what we call the infimum of expectations class of risk measures, we show that if the decision maker (DM) maximizes the expectation of a random return unde…
Model forecasts hourly electricity demand influenced by weather, socio-economic, and political factors.
Survival analysis models predict economic convergence across Americas.
The paper proposes a new model for predicting and analyzing economic variables.
Contrary to conventional economic growth theory, which reduces a country's output to one aggregate variable (GDP), product diversity is central to economic development, as recent 'economic complexity' research suggests. A country's product diversity reflects its diversity of knowhow or 'capabilities'. Researchers propo…
Paper uses bipartite graph to forecast cross-market returns, revealing asymmetry.
The economic life of an asset is the optimum length of its usefulness, which is the moment that the asset's expenses are minimum. In this paper, the economic life of physical assets, such as industry machine and equipment, can be interpreted as the moment that the minimum is reached by its equivalent property cost func…
The macroeconomic climate influences operations with regard to, e.g., raw material prices, financing, supply chain utilization and demand quotas. In order to adapt to the economic environment, decision-makers across the public and private sectors require accurate forecasts of the economic outlook. Existing predictive f…
Mathematical properties of the historical GDP/cap distributions are discussed and explained. These distributions are frequently incorrectly interpreted and the Unified Growth Theory is an outstanding example of such common misconceptions. It is shown here that the fundamental postulates of this theory are contradicted …
A new copula minimizes distance between distributions.
GRTR framework uses graph regularization to improve financial forecasting.
Optimal intervention in economic networks modeled as influence maximization, with hard computational problems.
The quantitative aspirations of economists and financial analysts have for many years been based on the belief that it should be possible to build models of economic systems - and financial markets in particular - that are as predictive as those in physics. While this perspective has led to a number of important breakt…
Study improves exchange rate forecasting using machine learning and interpretable methods.
Python tool detects economic crises from S&P500 correlation data.
The main points of the first section of the article written by S.I. Chernyshov, A.V. Voronin and S.A. Razumovsky arXiv:1003.4382), which deals with the fundamental bases of the macroeconomic theory, have been analyzed. An incorrectness of the Harrod's model of the economical growth in its generally accepted interpretat…
A scalable method for econometric inference using machine learning for big data.
Algorithm improves SLR efficiency in financial narratives.
Notions of Darwinian selection have been implicit in economic theory for at least sixty years. Richard Nelson and Sidney Winter have argued that while evolutionary thinking was prevalent in prewar economics, the postwar Neoclassical school became almost entirely preoccupied with equilibrium conditions and their mathema…
We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market they may compete against already existing goods, in other words new products can have destructive effects on existing …
Interpretability and stability are two important features that are desired in many contemporary big data applications arising in economics and finance. While the former is enjoyed to some extent by many existing forecasting approaches, the latter in the sense of controlling the fraction of wrongly discovered features w…
CB-APM uses analyst consensus as a bottleneck to interpret stock returns.
ReGEN-TAD detects anomalies in financial time series with interpretable models.
Cohort analysis speeds up Bitcoin blockchain data queries.
We map the recently proposed notions of algorithmic fairness to economic models of Equality of opportunity (EOP)---an extensively studied ideal of fairness in political philosophy. We formally show that through our conceptual mapping, many existing definition of algorithmic fairness, such as predictive value parity and…
In the framework of bilateral Gamma stock models we seek for adequate option pricing measures, which have an economic interpretation and allow numerical calculations of option prices. Our investigations encompass Esscher transforms, minimal entropy martingale measures, -optimal martingale measures, bilateral Esscher…
A simple but useful method of reciprocal values is introduced, explained and illustrated. This method simplifies the analysis of hyperbolic distributions, which are causing serious problems in the demographic and economic research. It allows for a unique identification of hyperbolic distributions and for unravelling co…
FinHEAR combines LLMs with human expertise for better financial decision-making.
This paper introduces TDA and TSI for better business analytics.
causalKANs provides interpretable treatment effect estimates using neural networks.
RNN(p) improves power consumption forecasts with interpretable models.
In this paper we give definitions of matrix rates of return which do not depend on the choice of basis describing baskets. We give their economic interpretation. The matrix rate of return describes baskets of arbitrary type and extends portfolio analysis to the complex variable domain. This allows us for simultaneous a…
A new explainable CBR system predicts financial risks with interpretability and good performance.
We study a class of heterogeneous agent-based models which are based on a basic set of principles, and the most fundamental operations of an economic system: trade and product transformations. A basic guiding principle is scale invariance, which means that the dynamics of the economy should not depend on the units used…
Tech sector decouples from non-tech sectors post-2015, predicting economic growth.