arXiv research

Our study shows that many firms would accumulate at zero output level (namely, Bankruptcy status) if a perfectly competitive market reaches full employment (namely, those people who should obtain employment have obtained employment). As a result, appearance of economic crisis is determined by two points; that is, (a). …

The paper uses machine learning to predict the impact of the Ukraine crisis on financial markets.

Python tool detects economic crises from S&P500 correlation data.

This study examines how economic policy uncertainty impacts commodity prices across different crises.

In this work, the time chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index is analyzed and approach of recession time term is predicted, which may be hallmark of a worldwide economic crisis. However, the methods used for the prediction will be disclosed a few years from now. On the other hand, this work will be updated …

We consider the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on the global stock market before, during, and after the crisis. We generate complex networks from a cross-correlation matrix such as the threshold network (TN) and the minimal spanning tree (MST). In the threshold network, we assign a threshold value by using…

Machine learning predicts US stock market crashes.

In this paper, we perform a comparative segmentation and clustering analysis of the time series for the ten Dow Jones US economic sector indices between 14 February 2000 and 31 August 2008. From the temporal distributions of clustered segments, we find that the US economy took one and a half years to recover from the m…

Defines crisis transitions in pure exchange economies rigorously.

Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat, or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and earlier large single…

Nanotechnology is the first major worldwide research initiative of the 21st century and probably is the solution vector in the economic environment. Also, innovation is widely recognized as a key factor in the economic development of nations, and is essential for the competitiveness of the industrial firms as well. Pol…

Since beginning of the 2008 financial crisis almost half a trillion euros have been spent to financially assist EU member states in taxpayer-funded bail-outs. These crisis resolutions are often accompanied by austerity programs causing political and social friction on both domestic and international levels. The questio…

Macroeconomic theories of growth and wealth distribution have an outsized influence on national and international social and economic policies. Yet, due to a relative lack of reliable, system wide data, many such theories remain, at best, unvalidated and, at worst, misleading. In this paper, we introduce a novel econom…

The financial crisis of 2008, which started with an initially well-defined epicenter focused on mortgage backed securities (MBS), has been cascading into a global economic recession, whose increasing severity and uncertain duration has led and is continuing to lead to massive losses and damage for billions of people. H…

In the same way as the Hilbert Program was a response to the foundational crisis of mathematics, this article tries to formulate a research program for the socio-economic sciences. The aim of this contribution is to stimulate research in order to close serious knowledge gaps in mainstream economics that the recent fina…

The origin of economic crises is a key problem for economics. We present a model of long-run competitive markets to show that the multiplicity of behaviors in an economic system, over a long time scale, emerge as statistical regularities (perfectly competitive markets obey Bose-Einstein statistics and purely monopolist…

Warning signs about the developing economic crisis in Greece were present in the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and in the growth of the GDP well before the economic collapse. The growth rate was strongly unstable. On average, in less than 50 years, it decreased 10-folds but after reaching a low minimu…

I argue that the current financial crisis highlights the crucial need of a change of mindset in economics and financial engineering, that should move away from dogmatic axioms and focus more on data, orders of magnitudes, and plausible, albeit non rigorous, arguments.

Assessing the stability of economic systems is a fundamental research focus in economics, that has become increasingly interdisciplinary in the currently troubled economic situation. In particular, much attention has been devoted to the interbank lending market as an important diffusion channel for financial distress d…

This summarizes the study of the financial and economic crisis in Europe. The starting questions were: 1) Why do we have a crisis? Unde venis? 2) What will be the outcome? Quo vadis? Here is the reasoning which touches many areas, ranging from financial to politics and from psychology and economy.

The main points of the first section of the article written by S.I. Chernyshov, A.V. Voronin and S.A. Razumovsky arXiv:1003.4382), which deals with the fundamental bases of the macroeconomic theory, have been analyzed. An incorrectness of the Harrod's model of the economical growth in its generally accepted interpretat…

The global financial crisis, beginning in 2008, took an historic toll on national economies around the world. Following equity market crashes, unemployment rates rose significantly in many countries: Italy was among those. What will be the impact of such large shocks on Italian healthcare finances? An empirical model f…

The prevalent view in the economics literature is that a high level of infrastructure investment is a precursor to economic growth. China is especially held up as a model to emulate. Based on the largest dataset of its kind, this paper punctures the twin myths that, first, infrastructure creates economic value, and, se…

In the present work we propose an original analytical model of coopetitive game. We try to apply this analytical model of coopetition - based on game theory and conceived at a macro level - to the Greek crisis, suggesting feasible solutions in a cooperative perspective for the divergent interests which drive the econom…

We calculated the cross correlations between the half-hourly times series of the ten Dow Jones US economic sectors over the period February 2000 to August 2008, the two-year intervals 2002--2003, 2004--2005, 2008--2009, and also over 11 segments within the present financial crisis, to construct minimal spanning trees (…

The dynamic network of relationships among corporations underlies cascading economic failures including the current economic crisis, and can be inferred from correlations in market value fluctuations. We analyze the time dependence of the network of correlations to reveal the changing relationships among the financial,…

Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of …

The last financial and economic crisis demonstrated the dysfunctional long-term effects of aggressive behaviour in financial markets. Yet, evolutionary game theory predicts that under the condition of strategic dependence a certain degree of aggressive behaviour remains within a given population of agents. However, as …

Since 2007, several contributions have tried to identify early-warning signals of the financial crisis. However, the vast majority of analyses has focused on financial systems and little theoretical work has been done on the economic counterpart. In the present paper we fill this gap and employ the theoretical tools of…

This paper calculates risk-dependent centrality of Brazilian stocks, showing rankings vary with external risk and crisis events.

The paper predicts financial markets using news text and semantic network analysis.

This work explains crises in markets without external news using bounded rational agents.

This review examines EWSs in finance to prevent economic crises.

Model shows worldwide trade crises can be localized or global, depending on trade balance.

Is the present economic and financial crisis similar to some previous one? It would be so nice to prove that universality laws exist for predicting such rare events under a minimum set of realistic hypotheses. First, I briefly recall whether patterns, like business cycles, are indeed found, and can be modeled within a …

The seriousness of the current crisis urgently demands new economic thinking that breaks the austerity vs. deficit spending circle in economic policy. The core tenet of the paper is that the most important problems that natural and social science are facing today are inverse problems, and that a new approach that goes …

Study examines Fed's pandemic communication strategies.

In Maslov (2003), a two level model of the occurrence of financial pyramid (bubbles) has been considered. We also considered the mathematical analogy of this model to Bose condensation. In the present paper, we explain why Ponzi schemes and bubbles result in a crisis in real economics. In Maslov (2005), the law of incr…

The paper analyzes the current state of the world economy and offers a short-term forecast of its development. Our analysis of log-periodic oscillations in the DJIA dynamics suggests that in the second half of 2017 the United States and other more developed countries could experience a new recession, due to the third p…

In order to figure out and to forecast the emergence phenomena of social systems, we propose several probabilistic models for the analysis of financial markets, especially around a crisis. We first attempt to visualize the collective behaviour of markets during a financial crisis through cross-correlations between typi…

This paper has been withdrawn by the authors, because it has been made obsolete by the detailed expositions in our papers in arXiv:0812.4885 (the mathematics part) and arXiv:0812.4737 (the economics part).

The paper explains the fair basis in bond-CDS trading during financial crises.

General Motors or a local business, which one is better to be stimulated in post-crisis recessions, where government stimulation is meant to overcome recessions? Due to the budget constraints, it is quite relevant to ask how one can increase the chance of economic recovery. One of the key elements to answer this questi…

We consider the relationship between economic activity and intervention, including monetary and fiscal policy, using a universal dynamic framework. Central bank policies are designed for growth without excess inflation. However, unemployment, investment, consumption, and inflation are interlinked. Understanding dynamic…

In this paper are made some considerations of the application of phenomenological thermodynamics in risk analysis for the transaction on financial markets, using the concept of economic entropy and the macrostate parameter introduced by us in a previous works [15,16]. The investment risk diagrams for a number of Romani…

This paper examines the risk-adjusted performance and differential fund flows for socially responsible mutual funds (SRMF). The results show that SRMF rated high on ESG, perform better than lower rated ESG funds during the period of economic crisis. The findings also show that low ESG rated SRMF had higher differential…

Conventional economic analysis of stringent climate change mitigation policy generally concludes various levels of economic slowdown as a result of substantial spending on low carbon technology. Equilibrium economics however could not explain or predict the current economic crisis, which is of financial nature. Meanwhi…

The Financial Crisis of 2008 is a worldwide financial crisis causing a worldwide economic decline that is the most severe since the 1930s. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global financial crisis gave impact on USD 3.4 trillion losses from financial institutions around the world between 2007 and …