The 2016 US election results are inferred from census microdata.
problem Estimating vote shares for specific demographic groups from aggregated election data.
method Distribution regression with multinomial-logit model, exploratory data analysis.
result Estimates vote shares for specific demographic groups (e.g., white women, Trump supporters, etc.).
Machine learning improves predicting species interactions based on traits.
problem Variability in empirical trait-matching studies for ecological networks.
method Compared conventional GLMs with ML models (Random Forest, Boosted Regression Trees, etc.) on simulated and real data.
result ML models outperform GLMs in predicting species interactions and identifying trait-matching combinations.
Framework for inferring latent structure from sparse, imperfectly detected bipartite networks.
problem Recovering latent structure from sparse, imperfectly detected bipartite networks in ecology.
method Structured sparse nonnegative low-rank factorization with detection probability estimation and ADMM-based algorithm.
result Improved recovery of latent factors and structure compared to existing methods.
New results for modeling voter probabilities in elections.
problem Modeling voter preferences with aggregate data and individual covariates.
method Maximum likelihood estimation for Poisson binomial distribution, approximated with heteroscedastic Gaussian.
result Existence and curvature results for the MLE of the Poisson binomial likelihood.
Hybrid model improves forest growth predictions.
problem Misspecified assumptions in mechanistic models.
method Forest Informed Neural Networks (FINN) combining DVM and DNN.
result DNN learned improved growth process functional form.
Neural likelihood approximates integer time series data efficiently.
problem Inference of parameters for integer-valued stochastic processes is challenging.
method Constructs a neural likelihood approximation for inference of parameters from time series data.
result Accurately approximates the true posterior with significant computational speed-ups.
A review of ML and DL for ecological data analysis.
problem Understanding the strengths and limitations of ML and DL in ecological research.
method Historical overview, algorithm families, differences, universal principles, and emerging trends.
result ML and DL excel in prediction tasks but are still debated for causal inference.
Decodes neural activity to assess latent states in real-world driving tasks.
problem Understanding latent states during complex tasks in natural settings.
method Domain-generalized models trained on controlled lab paradigms applied to ecologically valid driving tasks.
result Changes in neural activity correlate with changes in behavior and task performance.
New machine learning algorithms inspired by ecological principles.
problem Improving machine learning performance.
method Inspired by ecological dynamics, developed new online SVM algorithms.
result New algorithms outperform traditional methods on the MNIST dataset.
New model reveals voter preferences from aggregate election data.
problem Infer individual-level voter preferences from aggregate election data.
method Modeling aggregate count data as Poisson binomial, relating probabilities to covariates using logistic and neural networks.
result Model predicts voter preferences at precinct and individual levels.
The study examines how language models learn to represent the world, identifying conditions for ecological veridicality.
problem Understanding when language models learn to represent the world accurately and how this learning process can fail.
method Analyzes the Bayes-optimal next-token cross-entropy decomposition and the role of training ecology in shaping model representations.
result The minimum-complexity zero-excess solution is the quotient partition by training equivalence, and this solution is not preserved in in-context learning or per-task adaptation.
BayesFlow learns complex models using neural networks.
problem Estimating parameters in complex, non-likelihood models.
method Invertible neural networks for global Bayesian inference.
result Global probabilistic mapping from data to parameters.
Critiques causal reductionism in financial studies, suggesting alternative approaches.
problem Limitations of unidirectional causation in self-referencing systems like finance.
method Critical assessment of causal inference in empirical finance, using ecological models.
result Current financial tools may be limited to ex post inference, especially in reflexive contexts.
Paper predicts ecological footprint using energy parameters.
problem Forecasting the ecological footprint using energy parameters.
method Time series vector autoregression model.
result Predictions indicate increasing consumption and declining coal energy.
Valid inference from data and predictions.
problem Valid statistical inference with machine learning predictions.
method Framework for valid inference using machine learning predictions.
result Valid confidence intervals without assumptions on predictions.
New algorithm improves counterfactual inference from observational data.
problem Improving causal inference from observational studies.
method Combines domain adaptation and representation learning.
result Deep learning algorithm significantly outperforms previous methods.
This paper compares machine learning algorithms for ecological data.
problem Classifying ecological datasets into subsets with common patterns.
method Applied eight machine learning classification algorithms to ecological data.
result Linear Discriminant Analysis and k-nearest neighbors are the best methods.
TMLE improves IPM estimation for ecological population dynamics.
problem Estimating key demographic properties from IPM data.
method Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) for IPMs.
result Robust and efficient estimators for IPM properties.
This article provides an overview of model selection techniques.
problem Selecting the most appropriate model from a set of candidates.
method Various model selection techniques from statistics, information theory, and signal processing.
result Comprehensive discussion on theoretical properties and practical applicability of model selection approaches.
wBSL uses whitening transformations to speed up BSL for intractable likelihood models.
problem Computational demands of Bayesian synthetic likelihood with growing summary statistics.
method Whitening transformations to decorrelate summary statistics.
result Significant reduction in model simulations required for accurate inference.
Ecological systems have a high level of complexity combined with stability and rich biodiversity. Recently, the analysis of their properties and evolution has been pushed forward on a basis of concept of mutualistic networks that provides a detailed understanding of their features being linked to a high nestedness of t…
KELFI improves inference accuracy in likelihood-free settings with limited simulations.
problem Intractable likelihood evaluations in likelihood-free inference.
method Kernel embedding likelihood-free inference (KELFI) learns model hyperparameters to balance accuracy and efficiency.
result Improved accuracy and efficiency on challenging inference problems in ecology.
A new algorithm speeds up Monte Carlo inference for large networks.
problem Efficiently estimating parameters of complex network models.
method Derives a simple algorithm based on Equilibrium Expectation for MLE of exponential family distributions.
result The algorithm scales up the size of networks that can be analyzed with Monte Carlo methods by orders of magnitude.
StatEcoNet models species distribution using neural networks to correct observation errors.
problem Correcting observation errors in wildlife surveys for accurate species distribution modeling.
method StatEcoNet integrates a graphical generative model with neural networks to address SDM challenges.
result StatEcoNet outperforms traditional methods on simulated and real datasets.
Simformer uses transformer models to perform flexible Bayesian inference.
problem Current simulation-based inference methods are inflexible and require fixed priors.
method Trains a probabilistic diffusion model with transformer architectures.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods on various benchmarks.
A new testing method for random forests scales well for big data.
problem Efficiently assessing feature significance in random forests.
method Permutation-style testing approach, leveraging exchangeability arguments.
result The test maintains high power with significantly fewer computations.
Modeling vessel speed to balance efficiency and environmental risks in Arctic shipping.
problem Balancing vessel speed with environmental and ecological risks in Arctic shipping.
method Inverse control constrained optimization framework with risk parameters estimated from AIS data.
result Distinct decision-making patterns across vessel types and navigational statuses, with varying sensitivity to ice and whale risks.
Evology models US equity mutual funds interactions for investment strategies.
problem Understanding complex interactions in financial markets.
method Agent-based model (ABM) of US stock market participants and their strategies.
result Trading strategies interact with other market participants and conditions.
New algorithms cluster nodes in SBM graphs faster and more accurately.
problem Efficiently clustering nodes in graphs generated from SBM models.
method Inspired by Lloyd's algorithm, proposes model-free clustering methods for SBM graphs.
result Consistent estimation of node clusters and parameters in SBM graphs.
A compass guides institutions towards ecological economics goals.
problem Aligning institutional goals with ecological economics principles.
method Develops a policy compass for institutions, incorporating ecological economics principles.
result Adapted policy compass aligns institutional actions with ecological economics goals.
Study finds cryptocurrency market diversity patterns inconsistent with neutral models.
problem Cryptocurrency market diversity patterns not consistent with neutral models.
method Analysis borrowing methods from ecology, focusing on diversity patterns and community structure.
result Cryptocurrency market diversity patterns not consistent with neutral models, suggesting strong interactions between species.
This study calculates the maximum error of a famous estimation method.
problem Estimating rare items not seen in a sample.
method Characterizes the maximal mean-squared error of the Good-Turing estimator.
result Characterizes the maximal mean-squared error of the Good-Turing estimator.
New insights into optimal portfolios and ecological equilibria reveal surprising complexity.
problem Optimal portfolio construction with ecological constraints.
method Computational analysis of multispecies Lotka-Volterra equations with unit rank interaction matrices.
result Logarithm of the average number of solutions grows as \(N^{2/3}\), with most likely solutions being much smaller.
Develops scalable inference for complex implicit models.
problem Challenges in specifying complex latent structure and performing inferences in implicit models with large data sets.
method Introduces hierarchical implicit models and develops likelihood-free variational inference (LFVI). LFVI uses an implicit variational family.
result Demonstrates diverse applications of LFVI, including predator-prey simulations, generative adversarial networks, and text generation.
Entropy-based models analyze bipartite networks in ecology and finance.
problem Nestedness in bipartite networks across different systems.
method Entropy-based null models for bipartite networks.
result Entropy-based models provide a versatile tool for network analysis.
Market inefficiencies arise from density-dependent returns in a noisy environment.
problem Market inefficiencies and excess volatility.
method Developed a market model using ecological concepts.
result Market dynamics are density-dependent, leading to inefficiencies.
Improved particle Gibbs sampling by marginalizing parameters.
problem Bayesian inference in high-dimensional state-space models is challenging.
method Marginalized particle Gibbs sampling, combining MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo.
result Marginalization improves performance beyond the Gibbs sampler, scaling linearly.
The rise in online social networking has brought about a revolution in social relations. However, its effects on offline interactions and its implications for collective well-being are still not clear and are under-investigated. We study the ecology of online and offline interaction in an evolutionary game framework wh…
PySR method automates discovering equations from data in chaotic dynamics and epidemics.
problem Discovering equations from complex data in dynamical systems.
method Symbolic regression methods, focusing on PySR.
result PySR method efficiently infers equations from chaotic dynamics and epidemic models, matching original forms.
Earth observation embeddings can convert discrete biome maps into continuous representations that better capture ecological variation.
problem Biome maps impose categorical boundaries that compress continuous variation in biotic communities.
method Fit a linear classifier on Earth observation embeddings to predict biome labels.
result Continuous biome representation outperforms discrete biome labels for predicting species occurrence.
The paper uses a graph autoencoder to learn unbiased plant-pollinator interaction embeddings.
problem Sampling bias in citizen science data affects ecological network analysis.
method Bipartite graph variational autoencoder with HSIC for fairness.
result The method mitigates sampling bias and provides unbiased embeddings.
MAYA learns bee foraging decisions with limited memory.
problem Reproducing and predicting bees' foraging decisions with limited memory.
method Sequential imitation learning model based on multi-armed bandits, considering a temporal window τ of 7 trials.
result MAYA outperforms imitation baselines and classical models, providing interpretability and realistic trajectories.
Study uses machine learning to predict predator-prey dynamics without prior knowledge.
problem Predicting predator-prey interactions without prior knowledge of the system.
method Applied Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs) and Universal Differential Equations (UDEs) to the Lotka-Volterra model.
result UDEs outperform Neural ODEs in predicting predator-prey dynamics, especially in noisy data.
PASTIS selects minimal models from stochastic dynamics data.
problem Overfitting in model selection for stochastic dynamics.
method Combining likelihood-estimation statistics with extreme value theory.
result PASTIS reliably identifies minimal models, even with low sampling rates or error.
New dataset shows state-of-the-art embeddings fail on compositional tasks.
problem Evaluating compositional semantics in sentence embeddings.
method Developed a new dataset for natural language inference (NLI) that requires compositional understanding.
result State-of-the-art sentence embeddings perform poorly on new compositional dataset.
Improved forecasting of suicide attempts using LSGPs for patients with little data.
problem Challenges in predicting suicide attempts due to their rarity and patient heterogeneity.
method Introduced Latent Similarity Gaussian Processes (LSGPs) to capture patient heterogeneity.
result LSGPs outperform baseline models, even without kernel-design, and offer new insights into patient similarity.
SGNNs use simulations to train neural networks, improving scientific forecasting and interpretability.
problem Combining precise theory and machine learning for robust scientific modeling.
method Pretraining neural networks on diverse mechanistic simulations as training data.
result SGNNs outperform data-driven and physics-constrained models in forecasting and interpretability.
Cryptocurrency market analysis reveals stable properties despite continuous emergence and disappearance of new coins.
problem Lack of comprehensive analysis of the entire cryptocurrency market.
method Analysis of 1,469 cryptocurrencies introduced between April 2013 and June 2017 using ecological modeling.
result Neutral model of evolution can reproduce key empirical observations of the cryptocurrency market.