A compass guides institutions towards ecological economics goals.
problem Aligning institutional goals with ecological economics principles.
method Develops a policy compass for institutions, incorporating ecological economics principles.
result Adapted policy compass aligns institutional actions with ecological economics goals.
How are economic activities linked to geographic locations? To answer this question, we use a data-driven approach that builds on the information about location, ownership and economic activities of the world's 3,000 largest firms and their almost one million subsidiaries. From this information we generate a bipartite …
The green area of economy is the key of healthy living. It is necessary to convene economic and ecologic framework to establish a market attentive to drastic reduction of emissions damaging our climate and landscapes in rural areas, to the protection of biological diversity of the planet, to stop producing nuclear wast…
In this paper, we show how simple logistic growth that was studied intensively during the last 200 years in many domains of science could be extended in a rather simple way and with these extensions is capable to produce a collection of behaviors widely observed in an enormous number of real-life systems in Economics, …
Although classical economic theory is based on the concept of stable equilibrium, real economic systems appear to be always out of equilibrium. Indeed, they share many of the dynamical features of other complex systems, e.g., ecological food-webs. We focus on the relation between increasing complexity of the economic n…
Exact results on power-law distributions in systems with resets.
problem Understanding power-law distributions in systems with resets.
method Exact mathematical analysis of multiplicative processes with resets.
result Power-law distributions are built up over time and their moments behave quantitatively determined by parameters.
New machine learning algorithms inspired by ecological principles.
problem Improving machine learning performance.
method Inspired by ecological dynamics, developed new online SVM algorithms.
result New algorithms outperform traditional methods on the MNIST dataset.
Bipartite networks provide an insightful representation of many systems, ranging from mutualistic networks of species interactions to investment networks in finance. The analysis of their topological structures has revealed the ubiquitous presence of properties which seem to characterize many - apparently different - s…
The study examines how language models learn to represent the world, identifying conditions for ecological veridicality.
problem Understanding when language models learn to represent the world accurately and how this learning process can fail.
method Analyzes the Bayes-optimal next-token cross-entropy decomposition and the role of training ecology in shaping model representations.
result The minimum-complexity zero-excess solution is the quotient partition by training equivalence, and this solution is not preserved in in-context learning or per-task adaptation.
Paper predicts ecological footprint using energy parameters.
problem Forecasting the ecological footprint using energy parameters.
method Time series vector autoregression model.
result Predictions indicate increasing consumption and declining coal energy.
This paper compares machine learning algorithms for ecological data.
problem Classifying ecological datasets into subsets with common patterns.
method Applied eight machine learning classification algorithms to ecological data.
result Linear Discriminant Analysis and k-nearest neighbors are the best methods.
Ecological systems have a high level of complexity combined with stability and rich biodiversity. Recently, the analysis of their properties and evolution has been pushed forward on a basis of concept of mutualistic networks that provides a detailed understanding of their features being linked to a high nestedness of t…
Agent-based model uses SAM to create realistic economic system.
problem Lack of tools to understand and predict economic crises.
method Agent-based modeling (ABM) with Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) calibration.
result ABM can produce economic systems close to real-world data.
New measures and tests for high-order interactions in complex data.
problem Challenges in capturing high-order interactions in multivariate data.
method Hierarchy of d-order interaction measures and kernel-based tests. result Established statistical significance of high-order interactions.
StatEcoNet models species distribution using neural networks to correct observation errors.
problem Correcting observation errors in wildlife surveys for accurate species distribution modeling.
method StatEcoNet integrates a graphical generative model with neural networks to address SDM challenges.
result StatEcoNet outperforms traditional methods on simulated and real datasets.
Machine learning improves predicting species interactions based on traits.
problem Variability in empirical trait-matching studies for ecological networks.
method Compared conventional GLMs with ML models (Random Forest, Boosted Regression Trees, etc.) on simulated and real data.
result ML models outperform GLMs in predicting species interactions and identifying trait-matching combinations.
Evology models US equity mutual funds interactions for investment strategies.
problem Understanding complex interactions in financial markets.
method Agent-based model (ABM) of US stock market participants and their strategies.
result Trading strategies interact with other market participants and conditions.
Decodes neural activity to assess latent states in real-world driving tasks.
problem Understanding latent states during complex tasks in natural settings.
method Domain-generalized models trained on controlled lab paradigms applied to ecologically valid driving tasks.
result Changes in neural activity correlate with changes in behavior and task performance.
LLMs in financial markets show diverse behaviors, from stable to speculative, challenging rational expectations.
problem Understanding the economic behaviors of LLMs in financial markets.
method Simulated financial market with 15 LLMs of varying sizes and capabilities.
result LLMs exhibit a spectrum of behaviors, including speculative bubbles, inconsistent with rational expectations.
Networks are a fundamental model of complex systems throughout the sciences, and network datasets are typically analyzed through lower-order connectivity patterns described at the level of individual nodes and edges. However, higher-order connectivity patterns captured by small subgraphs, also called network motifs, de…
Confounding biases recommender systems, even when data seems fully observed.
problem Unmeasured features influencing both treatment and outcome in recommender systems.
method Illustrations and simulation studies showing how common practices introduce confounding.
result Standard recommender system practices can introduce confounding, reducing performance.
Study finds cryptocurrency market diversity patterns inconsistent with neutral models.
problem Cryptocurrency market diversity patterns not consistent with neutral models.
method Analysis borrowing methods from ecology, focusing on diversity patterns and community structure.
result Cryptocurrency market diversity patterns not consistent with neutral models, suggesting strong interactions between species.
We combine fine-grained spatially referenced census data with the vote outcomes from the 2016 US presidential election. Using this dataset, we perform ecological inference using distribution regression (Flaxman et al, KDD 2015) with a multinomial-logit regression so as to model the vote outcome Trump, Clinton, Other / …
New insights into optimal portfolios and ecological equilibria reveal surprising complexity.
problem Optimal portfolio construction with ecological constraints.
method Computational analysis of multispecies Lotka-Volterra equations with unit rank interaction matrices.
result Logarithm of the average number of solutions grows as \(N^{2/3}\), with most likely solutions being much smaller.
Efficient Bayesian variable selection for binomial and negative binomial data.
problem Computational challenges in Bayesian variable selection for complex models.
method Tempered Gibbs Sampling and MCMC scheme.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on cancer data with thousands of covariates.
Study maps research streams in biodiversity finance, identifies key areas.
problem Biodiversity loss and need for finance to reverse trends.
method Quantitative bibliometric analysis of 189,456 references.
result Identifies eight primary research streams in biodiversity finance.
Market inefficiencies arise from density-dependent returns in a noisy environment.
problem Market inefficiencies and excess volatility.
method Developed a market model using ecological concepts.
result Market dynamics are density-dependent, leading to inefficiencies.
Framework for inferring latent structure from sparse, imperfectly detected bipartite networks.
problem Recovering latent structure from sparse, imperfectly detected bipartite networks in ecology.
method Structured sparse nonnegative low-rank factorization with detection probability estimation and ADMM-based algorithm.
result Improved recovery of latent factors and structure compared to existing methods.
The global financial system can be represented as a large complex network in which banks, hedge funds and other financial institutions are interconnected to each other through visible and invisible financial linkages. Recently, a lot of attention has been paid to the understanding of the mechanisms that can lead to a b…
New modeling approach for self-organizing complex systems.
problem Identifying general principles of self-organizing complex systems.
method Self-deploying system structure and activities for goal-driven agents.
result Self-organization emerges from rational activity algorithm based on goals dependency network.
Bayesian method tackles variable selection in high-dimensional data.
problem Challenges in Bayesian variable selection with large P.
method Efficient MCMC scheme with sublinear cost per iteration, extended to generalized linear models.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on cancer and maize genomic data.
The rise in online social networking has brought about a revolution in social relations. However, its effects on offline interactions and its implications for collective well-being are still not clear and are under-investigated. We study the ecology of online and offline interaction in an evolutionary game framework wh…
Earth observation embeddings can convert discrete biome maps into continuous representations that better capture ecological variation.
problem Biome maps impose categorical boundaries that compress continuous variation in biotic communities.
method Fit a linear classifier on Earth observation embeddings to predict biome labels.
result Continuous biome representation outperforms discrete biome labels for predicting species occurrence.
The paper uses a graph autoencoder to learn unbiased plant-pollinator interaction embeddings.
problem Sampling bias in citizen science data affects ecological network analysis.
method Bipartite graph variational autoencoder with HSIC for fairness.
result The method mitigates sampling bias and provides unbiased embeddings.
New results for modeling voter probabilities in elections.
problem Modeling voter preferences with aggregate data and individual covariates.
method Maximum likelihood estimation for Poisson binomial distribution, approximated with heteroscedastic Gaussian.
result Existence and curvature results for the MLE of the Poisson binomial likelihood.
In the era of big data, analysts usually explore various statistical models or machine learning methods for observed data in order to facilitate scientific discoveries or gain predictive power. Whatever data and fitting procedures are employed, a crucial step is to select the most appropriate model or method from a set…
The paper analyzes ESS metrics and their connections to entropy families.
problem Improving the accuracy of effective sample size approximations.
method Examined Rényi and Tsallis entropy families and their relationship to ESS.
result Proved that ESS functions in the Huggins-Roy family meet theoretical conditions.
Study uses machine learning to predict predator-prey dynamics without prior knowledge.
problem Predicting predator-prey interactions without prior knowledge of the system.
method Applied Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs) and Universal Differential Equations (UDEs) to the Lotka-Volterra model.
result UDEs outperform Neural ODEs in predicting predator-prey dynamics, especially in noisy data.
Model shows how capital accumulation can lead to poverty traps and well-being states.
problem Capital accumulation and its effects on poverty and well-being.
method Stochastic Solow growth model with sigmoidal saving fraction and bimodal steady state distribution.
result Existence of poverty trap with fluctuation-driven transitions between poverty and well-being states.
Hybrid model improves forest growth predictions.
problem Misspecified assumptions in mechanistic models.
method Forest Informed Neural Networks (FINN) combining DVM and DNN.
result DNN learned improved growth process functional form.
A review of ML and DL for ecological data analysis.
problem Understanding the strengths and limitations of ML and DL in ecological research.
method Historical overview, algorithm families, differences, universal principles, and emerging trends.
result ML and DL excel in prediction tasks but are still debated for causal inference.
Improved forecasting of suicide attempts using LSGPs for patients with little data.
problem Challenges in predicting suicide attempts due to their rarity and patient heterogeneity.
method Introduced Latent Similarity Gaussian Processes (LSGPs) to capture patient heterogeneity.
result LSGPs outperform baseline models, even without kernel-design, and offer new insights into patient similarity.
Reflective of income and wealth distributions, philanthropic gifting appears to follow an approximate power-law size distribution as measured by the size of gifts received by individual institutions. We explore the ecology of gifting by analysing data sets of individual gifts for a diverse group of institutions dedicat…
High-dimensional random geometry shows phase transitions in various problems.
problem Phase transitions in high-dimensional random geometry.
method Analysis of various financial, optimization, and ecological problems.
result Links between seemingly distant fields and further ramifications.
New tools explain FRF model predictions in high-dimensional ECG data.
problem Lack of interpretability in Functional Random Forests (FRF) models.
method Introduces FPDPs, FPC Probability Heatmaps, and various FPC importance metrics.
result Enhances transparency of FRF models by revealing FPC contributions.
Modeling vessel speed to balance efficiency and environmental risks in Arctic shipping.
problem Balancing vessel speed with environmental and ecological risks in Arctic shipping.
method Inverse control constrained optimization framework with risk parameters estimated from AIS data.
result Distinct decision-making patterns across vessel types and navigational statuses, with varying sensitivity to ice and whale risks.
The paper explores how innovative financing solutions boost Moroccan businesses' performance.
problem Market volatility, ecological transitions, and technological change pose challenges to business sustainability.
method Examines innovative financing solutions like venture capital, green finance, crowdfunding, and blockchain.
result Embracing innovative financial strategies can transform business challenges into opportunities.
Critiques causal reductionism in financial studies, suggesting alternative approaches.
problem Limitations of unidirectional causation in self-referencing systems like finance.
method Critical assessment of causal inference in empirical finance, using ecological models.
result Current financial tools may be limited to ex post inference, especially in reflexive contexts.