Ensemble model predicts AD progression from CN status with high accuracy.
problem Early prediction of clinical progression from cognitively normal to mild cognitive impairment or Alzheimer's disease.
method Ensemble survival analysis combining penalized Cox regression, advanced survival models, and aggregation techniques.
result Ensemble model achieved peak C-index of 0.907 and integrated time-dependent AUC of 0.904, outperforming baseline models.
DeepAISE predicts sepsis onset with high accuracy and low false alarms.
problem Early prediction of sepsis in ICU patients to improve clinical situational awareness.
method Recurrent neural survival model that combines clinical criteria and treatment policies.
result DeepAISE produces the most accurate predictions (AUC=0.90 and 0.87) and lowest false alarm rates (FAR=0.20 and 0.26) compared to baseline models.
IGSD separates task-specific content channels in transformer components by comparing activation replacement with zero ablation.
problem Mechanistic interpretability of transformer components
method IGSD: paired-intervention framework for comparing activation replacement with zero ablation
result IGSD identifies an early-layer content channel in transformer components that standard importance methods underestimate.
Evaluation metrics for prediction models don't fully reflect intervention impact.
problem Standard metrics don't accurately reflect reduction in patient outcomes from model use.
method Synthesized and discussed various evaluation methods, analyzed with simulated and real data.
result Evaluations without interventional data are limited or require strong assumptions.
The emergence of an ageing population is a significant public health concern. This has led to an increase in the number of people living with progressive neurodegenerative disorders like dementia. Consequently, the strain this is places on health and social care services means providing 24-hour monitoring is not sustai…
Breast cancer is the most frequently reported cancer type among the women around the globe and beyond that it has the second highest female fatality rate among all cancer types. Despite all the progresses made in prevention and early intervention, early prognosis and survival prediction rates are still unsatisfactory. …
We describe two recently proposed machine learning approaches for discovering emerging trends in fatal accidental drug overdoses. The Gaussian Process Subset Scan enables early detection of emerging patterns in spatio-temporal data, accounting for both the non-iid nature of the data and the fact that detecting subtle p…
Study uses machine learning and survival analysis to predict CKD progression.
problem Early detection and management of CKD to reduce ESRD risk.
method Combines machine learning and classical statistical models to identify novel CKD progression predictors.
result Deep learning models outperform other methods in predicting CKD progression.
Deep learning predicts opioid use disorder risk in patients.
problem Identifying patients at high risk of opioid use disorder.
method Applied LSTM models to analyze electronic health records of opioid users.
result LSTM model outperformed other methods with F1 score of 0.8023 and AUCROC of 0.9369.
The timeliness of detection of a sepsis event in progress is a crucial factor in the outcome for the patient. Machine learning models built from data in electronic health records can be used as an effective tool for improving this timeliness, but so far the potential for clinical implementations has been largely limite…
The paper develops a method to predict ICU mortality risk across diverse patient populations.
problem Improving patient survival by recognizing risky trajectories during ICU stays.
method Domain adaptation strategies to learn mortality prediction models robust to diverse ICU populations.
result The proposed model outperforms baselines, achieving AUC numbers up to 0.88 for the Cardiac ICU population.
Early detection of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and identification of potential risk/beneficial factors are important for planning and administering timely interventions or preventive measures. In this paper, we learn a disease model for AD that combines genotypic and phenotypic profiles, and cognitive health metrics of pa…
Neural model detects DD risk in 5-year-olds, predicting 2 years ahead.
problem Early detection of developmental dyslexia for preventive teaching.
method Mixed neural model using auto-encoder and ordinal regression.
result System predicts DD risk 2 years before phonological processing is assessed.
Paper proposes a graph neural network for accurate long-term ILI prediction.
problem Limited long-term prediction performance and spatio-temporal dependency in existing models.
method Cross-location attention based graph neural network (Cola-GNN) for time series embeddings and location aware attentions.
result Proposed method shows strong predictive performance and interpretable results for long-term epidemic predictions.
Blended courses that mix in-person instruction with online platforms are increasingly popular in secondary education. These tools record a rich amount of data on students' study habits and social interactions. Prior research has shown that these metrics are correlated with students' performance in face to face classes.…
Student performance prediction - where a machine forecasts the future performance of students as they interact with online coursework - is a challenging problem. Reliable early-stage predictions of a student's future performance could be critical to facilitate timely educational interventions during a course. However, …
Estimates joint causal effects using single-variable interventions on nonlinear models.
problem Estimating joint causal effects from single-variable interventions.
method Identifiability result and practical estimator for decomposing causal effects.
result Joint effects can be inferred without joint interventional data for nonlinear additive models.
ReRe detects anomalies in real-time for time series data.
problem Real-time anomaly detection for time series data requires human intervention or domain knowledge and high computation complexity.
method ReRe uses two lightweight LSTM models to predict and determine anomalies based on historical data and adaptive thresholds.
result ReRe detects anomalies in real-time without requiring human intervention or domain knowledge.
Introduces info intervention to handle causal questions and check counterfactual variables.
problem Controversial interpretation of causal questions for non-manipulable variables and lack of power to check counterfactual variables.
method Intervenes input/output information of causal mechanisms, providing causal diagrams for communication and theoretical focus.
result Causal diagrams based on info intervention provide a new perspective on information transfer as causality.
This paper tackles CRL for multi-node interventions, achieving identifiability guarantees.
problem CRL under unknown multi-node interventions, focusing on single-node assumptions.
method Establishes identifiability results for general latent causal models under stochastic interventions.
result Identifiability up to ancestors using soft interventions, perfect identifiability using hard interventions.
Chronological Causal Bandits (CCB) tackles dynamic causal decision-making.
problem Dynamic causal decision-making in a system where rewards depend on past interventions.
method Introduces a new MAB problem (Chronological Causal Bandit) where rewards are influenced by a dynamic causal model.
result Early findings show the CCB can transfer information between sequential MABs.
This work tackles causal graph discovery with stochastic interventions to minimize the number of interventions.
problem Discovering the true causal graph from observational data with limited interventions.
method Proposes a stochastic intervention model and studies verification and search problems with approximation algorithms.
result Provides approximation algorithms with competitive ratios for verification and search problems.
Machine learning detects epilepsy development from EEG before seizures.
problem Early detection of epilepsy development (epileptogenesis) before seizures.
method Deep CNN combined with prediction aggregation for EEG data analysis.
result Deep learning achieves 99% AUC for EPG detection from EEG recordings.
Our goal is to identify beneficial interventions from observational data. We consider interventions that are narrowly focused (impacting few covariates) and may be tailored to each individual or globally enacted over a population. For applications where harmful intervention is drastically worse than proposing no change…
Paper proposes scalable algorithm to estimate intervention targets in linear models.
problem Estimating intervention targets in linear models from observational and interventional data.
method The paper proposes a scalable algorithm that estimates intervention sites from the difference between precision matrices of observational and interventional datasets.
result The algorithm consistently identifies all intervention targets and updates observational Markov equivalence classes to interventional ones.
New method disentangles mixed interventional and observational data in SEMs.
problem Learning causal relationships from mixed interventional and observational data.
method Developed a method to disentangle mixed interventional and observational data in linear SEMs with Gaussian noise.
result The method can identify causal graphs up to their interventional Markov Equivalence Class.
The paper presents a method to estimate joint interventional distributions from marginal interventional data.
problem Estimating joint interventional distributions from marginal interventional data.
method The paper extends the Causal Maximum Entropy method to use interventional data and employs Lagrange duality to prove the solution lies in the exponential family.
result The method allows for causal feature selection and inference of joint interventional distributions.
RePAD detects anomalies in streaming time series data in real-time.
problem Real-time anomaly detection for time series data without human intervention.
method RePAD uses LSTM to predict anomalies based on short-term historic data.
result RePAD detects anomalies proactively and provides early warnings.
Bayesian method for causal discovery from unknown general interventions.
problem Learning causal DAGs from unknown interventions that modify parent sets.
method Bayesian approach with MCMC for approximating posterior DAGs and intervention targets.
result Bayesian method can identify DAGs and intervention targets up to equivalence classes.
Interventional data helps identify latent factors without distributional assumptions.
problem Identifying latent factors from interventional data without distributional assumptions.
method Leveraging geometric signatures of latent factors' support from interventional data.
result Latent causal factors can be identified up to permutation and scaling given data from perfect do-interventions.
BEHRT improves disease prediction in EHRs by 8-10%.
problem Early disease detection in EHRs for better patient outcomes.
method Deep neural sequence transduction model for EHRs.
result BEHRT improves average precision by 8.0-10.8% compared to state-of-the-art models.
IntDC framework uncovers causal relationships from non-interventional data.
problem Detecting causal relationships in non-interventional complex systems.
method Interventional Embedding Entropy (IEE) for causal strength measurement.
result IEE accurately finds causal edges and quantifies causal strength robustly.
Algorithm detects causal change points quickly with adaptive interventions.
problem Detecting changes in causal models with interventions.
method Centralization technique, Kullback-Leibler divergence for intervention selection, adaptive intervention policy.
result Theoretical first-order optimality and validation through simulations and real-world studies.
Simulation framework assesses ROI of chronic disease adherence and policy timing.
problem Uncertainty in ROI of adherence-enhancing interventions under heterogeneous patient behavior and socioeconomic variation.
method Simulation-based framework integrating disease progression, time-varying adherence, and policy timing.
result Early and adaptive interventions yield highest ROI, exceeding 20% under certain conditions.
Method learns causal effects from multiple interventions in presence of unobserved confounders.
problem Disentangling causal effects from sets of interventions in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Non-linear structural causal models with additive, multivariate Gaussian noise; algorithm that learns causal model parameters by pooling data from different regimes and maximizing combined likelihood.
result Identification proofs demonstrate that causal effects of single interventions can be learned from sets of interventions, even with unobserved confounders.
New algorithms improve causal graph discovery with adaptive interventions, even under worst-case interventional costs.
problem Discover causal relationships from data with adaptive interventions and node-dependent costs.
method Define new benchmarks and provide adaptive search algorithms for causal graph discovery.
result Logarithmic approximations achieved under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.
We address the problem of optimal Central Bank intervention in the exchange rate market when interventions create feedback in the rate dynamics. In particular, we extend the work done on optimal impulse control by Cadenillas and Zapatero to incorporate temporary market reactions, of random duration and level, to Bank i…
GIT uses gradient estimators to target interventions for causal discovery.
problem Challenges in inferring causal structure from observational data.
method GIT uses gradient estimators to target interventions for causal discovery.
result GIT performs on par with competitive baselines, surpassing them in low-data regimes.
Paper relaxes faithfulness assumption for causal discovery using interventions.
problem Violation of faithfulness assumption in natural systems leads to incorrect causal structure identification.
method Use intervention-immediacy faithfulness assumption to identify causal structures with hard interventions.
result Interventions contain information about causal structure that can identify causal structures when faithfulness is violated.
Computational models that forecast the progression of Alzheimer's disease at the patient level are extremely useful tools for identifying high risk cohorts for early intervention and treatment planning. The state-of-the-art work in this area proposes models that forecast by using latent representations extracted from t…
FMI uses matching to mimic interventions for causal feature learning.
problem Challenges in causal discovery from observational data.
method Feature Matching Intervention (FMI) using matching to emulate perfect interventions.
result FMI outperforms in identifying causal features from observational data.
BaCaDI discovers causal structures from unknown interventions.
problem Inferring causal structures from unknown interventions with limited data.
method Bayesian framework with gradient-based variational inference.
result BaCaDI outperforms related methods in identifying causal structures and intervention targets.
Graph-coupled causal Bayesian optimization transfers information across related interventions.
problem Optimizing expensive systems where interventions are costly and causal effects are confounded.
method Ties intervention effects together through shared causal parameters, improving estimation.
result Information-gain and regret bounds show improved performance with shared mechanisms.
The paper tackles matching a desired mean in causal systems through shift interventions.
problem Matching a desired mean in causal systems.
method Defining Markov equivalence classes, proposing active learning strategies, deriving lower bounds.
result Proposed active learning strategies require fewer interventions than previous approaches, especially for certain graph classes.
Transformer model pretrains on synthetic graphs for AD detection.
problem Limited labeled data and class imbalance in AD diagnosis.
method Diffusion-generated synthetic graphs, Graph Transformers, transfer learning.
result Framework outperforms baselines in AD diagnosis metrics.
Intervention loss stabilizes GAN training and reduces mode collapse.
problem Stabilizing GAN training and mitigating mode collapse.
method Intervention loss regularization term introduced into GAN objective.
result Improved GAN training stability and reduced mode collapse.
Model identifies causal structure from paired observational and interventional data with unknown soft interventions.
problem Identifying causal structure from observational and interventional data with unknown soft interventions.
method Proposes a scalable causal discovery model that aggregates subset-level PDAGs and applies contrastive cross-regime orientation rules.
result The model asymptotically recovers the identifiable PDAG and can orient additional edges compared to non-contrastive subset-restricted methods.
Introduces CStrees for modeling context-specific causal models from observational and interventional data.
problem Modeling context-specific causal relationships from mixed data types.
method Introduces CStrees with a novel factorization criterion and graphical characterization for context-specific conditional independence models.
result Derives a graphical characterization of model equivalence for observational CStrees and extends it to CStree models under context-specific interventions.