Framework for quantifying uncertainty in dynamic processes.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in dynamic stochastic processes.
method Define dynamic uncertainty sets and dynamic robust risk measures.
result Dynamic robust risk measures are time-consistent under specific uncertainty sets.
Uncertainty modeling for dynamical systems
problem Uncertainty modeling for dynamical systems
method Discussing sources of uncertainty, their nature, and task-specific objectives
result Identifying the types of uncertainty needed for dynamical systems
Paper recovers uncertainty from dynamic valuation rules.
problem Recovering latent uncertainty from observable valuation rules.
method Developed procedures to identify and characterize uncertainty structures from valuation rules.
result Valuation rules contain sufficient information to identify and recover uncertainty structures.
New method combines ODE filters and numerical quadrature to propagate model uncertainty.
problem Propagation of model uncertainty in ODE solutions with uncertain parameters.
method Combining ODE filters with numerical quadrature.
result Effective propagation of both numerical and parametric uncertainty.
Bayesian method identifies dynamical models with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in selecting governing equations for dynamical systems.
method Bayesian sparse identification with model averaging.
result Accurately recovers sparse interaction structures with uncertainty quantification.
ConfEviSurrogate improves surrogate model accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in surrogate models hinders reliable analysis.
method Introduces ConfEviSurrogate, a novel model that learns evidential distributions, separates uncertainty sources, and provides reliable prediction intervals.
result Demonstrates accurate predictions and robust uncertainty estimates in various simulations.
SDE-Net quantifies uncertainty in deep nets using stochastic dynamics.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks.
method Viewing DNN transformations as state evolution of a stochastic dynamical system, introducing a Brownian motion term for epistemic uncertainty.
result SDE-Net outperforms existing methods in uncertainty estimation across various tasks.
Study uncovers uncertainty in traffic prediction models across cities.
problem Lack of interpretability in deep learning models for traffic prediction.
method Investigated uncertainty quantification methods for image-based traffic prediction.
result Meaningful uncertainty estimates can be recovered for traffic prediction.
We study time consistent dynamic pricing mechanisms of European contingent claims under uncertainty by using G framework introduced by Peng ([24]). We consider a financial market consisting of a riskless asset and a risky stock with price process modelled by a geometric generalized G-Brownian motion, which features the…
This work presents the concept of kernel mean embedding and kernel probabilistic programming in the context of stochastic systems. We propose formulations to represent, compare, and propagate uncertainties for fairly general stochastic dynamics in a distribution-free manner. The new tools enjoy sound theory rooted in f…
A new framework reduces inconsistencies in chaotic surrogate modeling.
problem Consistency issues between probabilistic objectives and dynamical system dynamics.
method KAFFEE (Kalman-Aware Framework For Ergodic Emulation), a differentiable extended Kalman filter.
result KAFFEE mitigates the dynamic-probabilistic consistency gap, improving reconstruction and predictive scores.
BSG learns dynamic network spillovers and uncertainty quantification.
problem Identifying indirect spillovers and systemic risk in dynamic networks.
method Bayesian Spillover Graphs using FEVD and Bayesian time series models.
result Significant performance gains over baselines in identifying source and sink nodes.
The study shows how trade uncertainty affects stock-bond correlations over time.
problem Impact of trade policy uncertainty on stock-bond correlations.
method Daily data analysis using GARCH-based models (CCC, STCC, DCC) with TPU and political dummy variables.
result Time-varying correlation models better capture the dynamics of stock-bond correlations than constant models.
Paper develops a robust hedging framework to reduce market risk and uncertainty.
problem Managing uncertainty and risk exposure in portfolio management.
method Combines high-frequency realized variance, covariance measures, and autoregressive models for multi-step volatility forecasting. Uses a box-uncertainty robust optimization scheme to derive a closed-form solution for the robust hedge ratio.
result Robust hedge ratios are more stable and entail lower turnover than standard dynamic hedges, improving downside protection and risk-adjusted performance.
Study evaluates machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in complex systems.
problem Accurately quantify epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in complex dynamical systems.
method Examined Gaussian processes, UQ-augmented neural networks (ENN, BNN, D-NN, G-NN) on two model data sets.
result Concluded on model architecture and hyperparameter tuning for improved UQ accuracy.
DeepONet accelerates reliability analysis of stochastic nonlinear systems.
problem Time-dependent reliability analysis of systems with stochastic forcing.
method DeepONet, a novel operator network, learns function-to-function mappings.
result DeepONet efficiently and accurately predicts system responses.
A new RL method handles uncertainty and constraints in real-time optimization.
problem Real-time optimization under process uncertainty and constraints.
method Chance-constrained reinforcement learning to handle probabilistic state constraints.
result Satisfies process constraints with high probability in real-time.
D2D converts CLDs into SDMs to explore leverage points under uncertainty.
problem Limited dynamic analysis of CLDs for intervention strategies.
method Minimal user input protocol to convert CLDs into SDMs, simulating interventions.
result D2D helps distinguish leverage points and provides uncertainty estimates.
We study option pricing and hedging with uncertainty about a Black-Scholes reference model which is dynamically recalibrated to the market price of a liquidly traded vanilla option. For dynamic trading in the underlying asset and this vanilla option, delta-vega hedging is asymptotically optimal in the limit for small u…
A Gaussian Process Ordinary Differential Equation framework for large continuous dynamical systems
problem Forecasting complex dynamical systems
method Kernel autonomous ODE approach based on Gaussian Processes and Quadratic Order Model Reduction
result Full model outperforms ROM methods in terms of accuracy or computational costs
Bayesian ANN method predicts chaotic systems with uncertainty.
problem Estimating chaotic dynamical systems from noisy data.
method Bayesian Artificial Neural Networks for ODE inverse problems.
result Accurate time predictions and uncertainty bounds.
A new framework for robust policy learning in MDPs with linear mixture dynamics.
problem Off-dynamics challenge in real-world decision-making problems.
method Linear mixture DRMDP framework, meta algorithm for robust policy learning.
result The new framework provides a more refined representation of uncertainties.
Statistical finite elements use Langevin dynamics to efficiently handle uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in finite element models with observed data.
method Langevin dynamics, unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA), for sampling posterior distributions.
result ULA provides a scalable and efficient method for characterizing the posterior distribution of statFEM models.
Bayesian framework for identifying localized regions of interest in dynamical systems.
problem Identifying regions of high-resolution uncertainty quantification in complex dynamical systems.
method Bayesian inference with Gaussian process surrogate and polynomial chaos expansion.
result Unified computational scheme reduces overall cost for uncertainty quantification.
Analyzes how uncertainty in financial networks affects stability.
problem Understanding how uncertainty in financial networks impacts stability.
method Introduced a minimal stochastic dynamical model of the interbank network with linear interactions. Derived the interaction correction to the stress expectation and studied it on the short-medium timescale.
result Interactions increase the stress expectation on average, highlighting the importance of disclosure.
Efficiently quantifies uncertainty in subsurface flow using neural networks guided by theory.
problem Uncertainty in dynamic subsurface flow predictions.
method Theory-guided Neural Network (TgNN) for efficient uncertainty quantification.
result TgNN surrogate improves efficiency of uncertainty quantification compared to MC method.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep learning models have become more common, RNNs have been used to forecast increasingl…
The paper models insurance market dynamics under uncertainty and financial frictions.
problem Modeling insurer behavior under uncertainty and financial frictions.
method Dynamic equilibrium model of insurance market with competitive insurers maximizing shareholder value.
result Investment can lead to lower insurance prices and negative loadings under certain conditions.
Modeling interacting objects with latent Gaussian process ODEs.
problem Time uncertainty-aware modeling of continuous-time dynamics of interacting objects.
method A new model using latent Gaussian process ordinary differential equations to infer independent dynamics and interactions.
result Our model improves long-term predictions and successfully encapsulates independent dynamics and interactions.
PKF improves KF for dynamic uncertainty tracking in time-course data.
problem Dynamic uncertainty tracking in time-course data.
method Pathspace Kalman Filter (PKF) using Bayesian methodology.
result PKF outperforms conventional KF methods, reducing MSE by several orders of magnitude.
dynoGP uses deep Gaussian processes for dynamic system identification.
problem System identification for complex dynamical systems.
method Interconnecting linear dynamic GPs and static GPs to model dynamic and static nonlinearities.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of the approach using both simulated and real-world data.
New method uses biased MD to create accurate MLIPs.
problem Creating a comprehensive data set for MLIPs.
method Bias MD by MLIP's energy uncertainty, using gradient-based uncertainties.
result Develops uniformly accurate MLIPs with lower computational cost.
Neural networks simplify uncertainty quantification of locally nonlinear systems.
problem Estimating statistics of responses in large-scale locally nonlinear dynamical systems.
method Decomposes response into nominal linear system and a neural network-estimated pseudoforce.
result Neural networks can efficiently estimate pseudoforce containing nonlinear and uncertain information.
New risk measure considers horizon risk and interest rate uncertainty.
problem Dynamic risk evaluation considering horizon risk and interest rate uncertainty.
method Introduced a risk measure based on generalized Tsallis entropy.
result New q-entropic risk measure quantifies capital requirement.
New method improves Bayesian model selection for neural dynamics.
problem Bayesian methods struggle with large datasets and computational constraints.
method Computation-Aware State-Space Model (CASSM) with model selection.
result CASSM yields competitive performance and improved uncertainty calibration.
We consider dynamic sublinear expectations (i.e., time-consistent coherent risk measures) whose scenario sets consist of singular measures corresponding to a general form of volatility uncertainty. We derive a càdlàg nonlinear martingale which is also the value process of a superhedging problem. The superhedging strate…
Efficient algorithm for unknown linear systems with convex costs.
problem Controlling an unknown linear system with stochastic convex costs.
method Optimism in the Face of Uncertainty paradigm.
result Achieves optimal T \sqrt{T} T regret-rate. fSGLD optimizes deep learning by favoring flat regions in the loss landscape.
problem Understanding and improving the behavior and generalization of deep learning algorithms.
method Flatness-Aware Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (fSGLD) that biases learning towards flat basins.
result fSGLD targets a flatness-biased Gibbs distribution with explicit excess risk guarantees.
Proposes a new batch selection method for multi-label classification.
problem Improving the accuracy of deep neural networks in multi-label classification tasks.
method Adapts uncertainty measures to multi-label data, considering label correlations and dynamic uncertainty.
result Improves performance and accelerates convergence of multi-label deep learning models.
Study designs steering rewards for MFGs with unknown dynamics and model uncertainty.
problem Designing incentives for large populations of agents in MFGs with uncertain model details.
method Developed optimistic exploration algorithms for agents with no-adaptive regret behaviors.
result Sub-linear regret guarantees for cumulative gaps between agent behaviors and desired outcomes.
New methods improve uncertainty quantification in dynamic biological systems.
problem Uncertainty in dynamic biological models due to nonlinearity and parameter sensitivity.
method Conformal inference methods for non-asymptotic guarantees.
result Enhanced robustness and scalability for diverse biological data structures.
Unified deep sequential and state-space models for robust option pricing with uncertainty.
problem Combining robustness to noise and uncertainty measurement in option pricing models.
method Unscattered reservoir smoother (URS) integrating deep sequential and state-space models.
result URS achieves competitive forecasting accuracy and uncertainty measurement in noisy datasets.
A new method for estimating uncertainties in neural ODEs without numerical integration.
problem Accurate estimation of predictive uncertainties in neural ODEs.
method Distributional Gradient Matching (DGM) algorithm that jointly trains a smoother and a dynamics model.
result Significantly more accurate predictions compared to traditional methods.
Bayesian model predicts crack evolution on rails with uncertainties.
problem Predicting crack evolution on railways due to complex interactions and uncertainties.
method Robust Bayesian multi-horizon approach with constraints.
result Trade-off between prediction accuracy and constraint compliance.
Controller seeks informative system observations to predict nonlinear dynamics.
problem Predicting nonlinear dynamics with uncertain parameters.
method Expected free energy minimization for balancing goal state and informative observations.
result Controller improves performance in uncertain parameter scenarios.
We here present a model of the dynamics of extremism based on opinion dynamics in order to understand the circumstances which favour its emergence and development in large fractions of the general public. Our model is based on the bounded confidence hypothesis and on the evolution of initially anti-conformist agents to…
Nonlocal Bayesian modeling for continuous spatio-temporal dynamics
problem Handling irregular time points, sparse observations, and nonlocal interactions in spatio-temporal forecasting
method Hierarchical Bayesian framework with coordinate-based spatial basis expansion and continuous-time ODE
result Strong forecasting and uncertainty calibration
Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms can attain excellent sample efficiency, but often lag behind the best model-free algorithms in terms of asymptotic performance. This is especially true with high-capacity parametric function approximators, such as deep networks. In this paper, we study how to bridge th…