Proposes a novel approach for RUL estimation of aero-engines.
problem Lack of prior knowledge for defining exact failure thresholds in dynamic environments.
method Simultaneous and dynamic prediction of continuous and discrete states within a single learning framework.
result Improves RUL estimation for aero-engines by reducing complexity.
Paper models non-linear dynamics from time series data.
problem Modeling non-linear dynamical systems from time series data.
method Introduces latent state modeling and a novel alternating minimization algorithm.
result LaNoLem achieves competitive performance in dynamics estimation and prediction.
A new method reduces complexity in estimating dynamic choice models.
problem Estimating structural parameters in dynamic discrete choice models using behavioral data.
method Two-stage approach: inverse reinforcement learning for Q-function estimation, state selection via clustering, and maximum likelihood estimation with nested fixed-point algorithm.
result The method mitigates the curse of dimensionality and provides finite-sample bounds on estimation error.
Online learning improves state estimation of nonlinear systems.
problem Online learning of nonlinear state dynamics in Gaussian state space models.
method Stochastic variational sparse Gaussian process embedded in a particle filter framework, with model updating using stochastic gradient descent.
result State estimation performance significantly improves with online learning of state dynamics.
KalmanNet uses neural networks to improve state estimation in systems with unknown dynamics.
problem State estimation of systems with non-linear dynamics and partial information.
method KalmanNet integrates a recurrent neural network with the Kalman filter to handle non-linearities and model mismatches.
result KalmanNet outperforms classic filtering methods in systems with both mismatched and accurate domain knowledge.
dynestyx: A library for probabilistic programming of dynamical systems
problem integrating state-space models into probabilistic programming languages
method a unified interface for specifying priors and performing inference
result principled uncertainty quantification for state and parameters
Developed a method to estimate PLRNNs from neural data, revealing dynamics of working memory.
problem Reconstructing neural dynamics from experimental data for computational analysis.
method Semi-analytical maximum-likelihood estimation using state space models.
result 5-state PLRNN model captures essential working memory dynamics.
Framework expands particle filtering to estimate states beyond prior boundaries.
problem Limitations of traditional particle filtering in estimating states outside prior support.
method Diffusion-Enhanced Particle Filtering Framework with adaptive diffusion, entropy-driven regularisation, and kernel-based perturbations.
result Framework significantly improves state estimation accuracy and success rates for out-of-boundary targets.
New algorithm for state and parameter estimation in dynamic models.
problem Joint state and parameter estimation in dynamic Bayesian networks.
method Hybrid of particle filtering and assumed density filtering.
result The proposed algorithm generates more accurate results within a fixed computation budget.
Online DEM improves tracking of latent states in dynamic systems.
problem Tracking latent states in dynamic systems with online updates.
method Specializes DEM for online data assimilation, separating temporal scales.
result ODEM can track latent states of a non-linear generative model.
This paper develops nudging algorithms using learned surrogates for state estimation in dynamical systems.
problem Estimating the state of a dynamical system from partial observations when dynamics are unknown or expensive to simulate.
method Unified finite-dimensional analysis of nudging algorithms employing learned surrogate models of the dynamics.
result Nudging algorithms with surrogate models retain exponential convergence up to an explicit error floor.
Algorithm selects best model based on state, reducing costs.
problem Choosing the best model among many in different states of the world.
method Reinforcement learning algorithm to estimate optimal policy.
result Algorithm consistently selects optimal model based on covariates.
A new method reduces high-dimensional state space for dynamic choice models.
problem Estimation of dynamic discrete choice models is computationally intensive and infeasible in high-dimensional settings.
method Recursive partitioning algorithm to reduce dimensionality of high-dimensional state space.
result Our method reduces estimation bias and makes estimation feasible.
Auto-regressive models learn latent states from partially observed linear dynamical systems.
problem Understanding how auto-regressive models learn latent representations from partially observed linear dynamical systems.
method Empirical risk minimization on partially observed linear dynamical systems.
result Two-layer linear auto-regressive models learn to approximate Kalman filtering, coinciding with optimal state estimates.
Active learning method estimates nonlinear systems efficiently.
problem Identifying nonlinear dynamical systems with continuous states and actions.
method Repeating three steps: trajectory planning, tracking, and re-estimation.
result Estimates nonlinear dynamical systems at a parametric rate.
Proposes an INLA-based method for state and parameter estimation in nonlinear systems.
problem Difficulty in learning parameters accurately in nonlinear dynamical systems.
method Iterated INLA for state and parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamical systems.
result Outperforms existing methods on data assimilation tasks.
PINNs solve neuronal parameter and state estimation problems with limited data.
problem Estimating parameters and hidden state variables from noisy partial data in multiscale neuronal models.
method Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for joint state and parameter estimation.
result PINNs deliver robust and accurate parameter inference and state reconstruction, even with limited data.
Paper improves calcium signal deconvolution using efficient state-space models.
problem Deconvolving calcium signals from imaging data.
method Dynamic compressed sensing framework with two nested EM algorithms.
result Proves recovery guarantees and derives confidence bounds for state estimates.
This paper explores estimating chaotic dynamics and parameters using local ensemble Kalman filters.
problem Estimating chaotic dynamics and parameters from observations.
method Local ensemble Kalman filters with covariance and local domain localisation.
result Rigorously updating global parameters using a local domain ensemble Kalman filter.
ConvNet smoother estimates nonlinear dynamics from noisy data.
problem Estimating state of non-linear systems from noisy observations.
method Uses convolutional neural networks to approximate non-linear functions.
result ConvNet smoother performs almost optimally in Gaussian cases and non-Gaussian systems.
Paper uses black-box inference to estimate non-linear latent force models.
problem Estimating posterior state and forcing term in non-linear systems with unknown forcing terms.
method Black-box variational inference with local inverse autoregressive flows.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of approximation on known posterior systems and non-linear dynamics.
This study examines cores within superclusters, highlighting their transitional nature and dynamical state.
problem Understanding the morphology and dynamical properties of cores within superclusters.
method Projected and radial velocity distributions of galaxies, morphological analysis, entropy and mass estimates.
result Cores are transitional structures that evolve towards virialisation but remain gravitationally bound.
New method for state inference in state-space models with unknown dynamics.
problem State inference in state-space models with computationally expensive and undefined dynamics.
method Estimate state transition dynamics using a multi-output Gaussian process and Bayesian Neural Network as a surrogate model.
result Significant improvement in accuracy for state inference and prediction in non-stationary user models.
Model predicts traffic flow dynamics from sparse data.
problem Predict traffic flow from limited data.
method Mesoscopic model using factor graphs and message passing.
result Efficiently estimates traffic conditions with low probe vehicle penetration.
A new state-space approach improves NMF for dynamic data.
problem Modeling time series with strong temporal dependencies.
method Probabilistic framework with state-space approach and multi-lag N-VAR model.
result D-NMF outperforms static NMF and other state-of-the-art methods.
This paper addresses the problem of online learning in a dynamic setting. We consider a social network in which each individual observes a private signal about the underlying state of the world and communicates with her neighbors at each time period. Unlike many existing approaches, the underlying state is dynamic, and…
Proposes a new model for time series that considers smooth transitions between states.
problem Models assume instantaneous transitions between discrete states, ignoring gradual changes.
method Dynamical Wasserstein Barycentric (DWB) model that estimates system state and pure state distributions over time.
result Accurately learns pure state distributions and improves state estimation for transition periods.
New techniques improve the accuracy of identifying nonlinear systems from noisy data.
problem Identifying nonlinear dynamical systems from noisy state measurements.
method Comparative study of local and global smoothing techniques to denoise state measurements and improve sparse regression methods.
result Global smoothing methods outperform local methods in improving the accuracy of governing equation recovery.
Deep learning solves and estimates complex financial models.
problem Estimating and solving continuous-time financial models.
method Uses deep learning to solve and estimate models simultaneously.
result Demonstrates advantages like generality and large state space handling.
ETGPSSM efficiently models high-dimensional, non-stationary systems with reduced complexity.
problem Prohibitive computational and parametric complexity in high-dimensional, non-stationary dynamical systems.
method ETGPSSM integrates a single shared GP with input-dependent normalizing flows for scalable and flexible modeling.
result ETGPSSM outperforms existing models in computational efficiency and accuracy.
Efficiently simulates slow dynamics of high-dimensional stochastic systems.
problem Simulating high-dimensional stochastic systems with slow dynamics and fast modes.
method Designs an algorithm to estimate an invariant manifold and its dynamics, averaging out fast modes.
result Efficient simulator of effective dynamics on low-dimensional invariant manifold.
A new method for learning controlled dynamical systems efficiently and avoiding local minima.
problem Learning controlled dynamical systems with efficient and robust methods.
method Predictive State Representation with Random Fourier Features (RFFPSR) combining moment-matching, kernel embedding, and local optimization.
result The method avoids local minima and efficiently models controlled dynamical systems.
New method learns quantum states using neural networks, revealing hidden dynamics.
problem High-precision ground state estimation of quantum many-body problems.
method Stochastic reconfiguration method with neural network Ansatz states.
result Learning landscape modes with least entanglement have largest eigenvalues, suggesting correlations are encoded in large flat valleys.
DynaNet combines neural networks and SSMs for motion estimation and prediction.
problem Combining neural networks and SSMs for robust, interpretable motion estimation and prediction.
method Hybrid neural network and time-varying state-space model.
result State-of-the-art performance on challenging tasks like visual odometry and sensor fusion.
The paper develops methods for welfare analysis in dynamic models.
problem Estimating welfare metrics in complex, high-dimensional models.
method Dual and doubly robust representations, Lasso and Neural Network estimators.
result Automatic debiasing of welfare metrics without needing bias correction.
New method clusters ab initio dynamics to predict excited state properties.
problem Complex excited state dynamics in polyatomic systems.
method Time series guided clustering algorithm to generate meta-stable patterns.
result Accurate prediction of ground and excited state properties.
Expands Hidden Markov Model to include Markov chain observations.
problem Handling Markov chain observations in Hidden Markov Models.
method Developed Expectation-Maximization algorithm and Viterbi algorithm analogs.
result Estimates transition probabilities for hidden states and observations.
New model captures state-dependent variability in partially observed systems.
problem Structured stochasticity not captured by constant-variance models.
method State-coupled stochastic volatility framework with particle expectation-maximization.
result Model consistently reduces recovery bias under partial observation.
Reconstructs power grid dynamics from PMU measurements.
problem Reconstructing dynamic state matrix of power transmission grids.
method Maximum likelihood based convex estimators adapting to prior information.
result Fully data-driven method that works in near real-time.
Dynamic treatment strategies on networks amplify policy impact through spillovers.
problem Effective dynamic treatment allocation in network settings.
method Q-Ising, a three-stage pipeline integrating Bayesian dynamic Ising model, treatment adoption histories, and offline reinforcement learning.
result Adaptive targeting outperforms static centrality benchmarks in Indian village microfinance networks and synthetic data.
Develops a method to model neural dynamics with flexible yet interpretable latent states.
problem Capturing complex nonlinear dynamics in neural time series while maintaining interpretability.
method Gaussian Process Switching Linear Dynamical System (gpSLDS) that balances expressiveness and interpretability.
result Favorable performance in comparison to rSLDS on synthetic and real neuroscience data.
PRISM provides real-time SLAM with uncertainty estimates for agent and map states.
problem Lack of uncertainty estimates and real-time capability in SLAM.
method Combines differentiable rendering and 6-DoF dynamics, uses approximations for Bayesian inference.
result Runs at 10Hz real-time with similar accuracy to state-of-the-art SLAM.
The paper tackles reward-relevance in offline RL with sparse decision dynamics.
problem Offline reinforcement learning with sparse decision dynamics and estimation sparsity.
method Reward-filtered least-squares policy evaluation using thresholded lasso.
result The method provides theoretical guarantees with sample complexity dependent on sparse component size.
Method estimates dynamic treatment effects using machine learning and g-estimation.
problem Estimating treatment effects over time with multiple treatments and potential future outcomes.
method Double/debiased machine learning framework for dynamic treatment effects, extending Neyman orthogonal cross-fitted g-estimation. result Provides finite sample guarantees and allows for non-linear effect heterogeneity and high-dimensional parameterizations.
Neural Physicist learns physical dynamics from images.
problem Learning meaningful physical state representations and accurate state transitions from image sequences.
method Neural Physicist uses VAE for state extraction, NP for parameters, and SSM for dynamics.
result Achieves long-term predictions and identifies system degrees of freedom.
Novel method uses Bayesian filters and PCRLB for state estimation of option prices.
problem Estimating unobserved latent variables from option prices.
method Posterior Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (PCRLB) based adaptive state estimation using various Bayesian filters.
result Proposed method outperforms individual filters and improves forecasting.
Estimates hybrid dynamical systems with polynomial expansions and Markovian switching.
problem Identifying hybrid dynamical systems with nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) components and Markovian switching.
method Probabilistic framework using Expectation Maximization for parameter estimation, including submodel coefficients, hidden state values, and transition probabilities. Disentangles mode classification and NARX regression tasks. Uses soft-labels and coordinate descent approach for parameter fitting.
result Demonstrated on a SMNARX problem with three nonlinear sub-models, achieving parsimonious models through l1-norm bridge estimation and hard-thresholding.
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system identification) in nonlinear nonparametric state-space models. We place a Gauss…