A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Introduces a new Lévy process for modeling illiquid markets.
The article prices exchange options using variance gamma-like models.
The paper prices energy spread options using a complex stochastic model.
Study simulates Variance Gamma processes for energy derivatives pricing.
Proposes a new model to better handle overdispersed count time series.
Study shows variance gamma model outperforms Black-Scholes for USD-INR currency options.
The paper uses the variance-gamma model to price options and explain excess kurtosis.
A gamma process dynamic Poisson factor analysis model is proposed to factorize a dynamic count matrix, whose columns are sequentially observed count vectors. The model builds a novel Markov chain that sends the latent gamma random variables at time as the shape parameters of those at time , which are linked …
Study on gamma-related OU processes with simulation methods.
A novel Bayesian method for dynamic sparsity in Gaussian dynamic linear regression.
We present a class of Lévy processes for modelling financial market fluctuations: Bilateral Gamma processes. Our starting point is to explore the properties of bilateral Gamma distributions, and then we turn to their associated Lévy processes. We treat exponential Lévy stock models with an underlying bilateral Gamma pr…
A nonparametric Bayesian sparse graph linear dynamical system (SGLDS) is proposed to model sequentially observed multivariate data. SGLDS uses the Bernoulli-Poisson link together with a gamma process to generate an infinite dimensional sparse random graph to model state transitions. Depending on the sparsity pattern of…
Modeling volatility with Chained Gamma Distributions for financial time series.
The weak variance-alpha-gamma process is a multivariate Lévy process constructed by weakly subordinating Brownian motion, possibly with correlated components with an alpha-gamma subordinator. It generalises the variance-alpha-gamma process of Semeraro constructed by traditional subordination. We compare three calibrati…
We develop dependent hierarchical normalized random measures and apply them to dynamic topic modeling. The dependency arises via superposition, subsampling and point transition on the underlying Poisson processes of these measures. The measures used include normalised generalised Gamma processes that demonstrate power …
While most Bayesian nonparametric models in machine learning have focused on the Dirichlet process, the beta process, or their variants, the gamma process has recently emerged as a useful nonparametric prior in its own right. Current inference schemes for models involving the gamma process are restricted to MCMC-based …
LLMs detect market patterns through causal reasoning, not just temporal association.
The study explains how market-makers' hedging affects stock volatility during gamma-squeeze events.
We consider the intensity-based approach for the modeling of default times of one or more companies. In this approach the default times are defined as the jump times of a Cox process, which is a Poisson process conditional on the realization of its intensity. We assume that the intensity follows the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross …
Bayesian model improves asset price forecasting using realized volatility.
A beta-negative binomial (BNB) process is proposed, leading to a beta-gamma-Poisson process, which may be viewed as a "multi-scoop" generalization of the beta-Bernoulli process. The BNB process is augmented into a beta-gamma-gamma-Poisson hierarchical structure, and applied as a nonparametric Bayesian prior for an infi…
New methods model gamma-ray data to better understand Galactic emissions.
New pricing model uses variance-gamma process for financial assets.
Proposes a method for approximating transition densities of SDEs driven by gamma processes.
We present a discrete time stochastic volatility model in which the conditional distribution of the logreturns is a Variance-Gamma, that is a normal variance-mean mixture with Gamma mixing density. We assume that the Gamma mixing density is time varying and follows an affine Garch model, trying to capture persistence o…
Trains neural nets for gamma hedging with model uncertainty.
This paper presents a multinomial method for option pricing when the underlying asset follows an exponential Variance Gamma process. The continuous time Variance Gamma process is approximated by a discrete time Markov chain with the same firsts four cumulants. This approach is particularly convenient for pricing Americ…
Proposes a new model for better speech segmentation.
Bayesian inference and superstatistics model financial volatility dynamics across different timescales.
This paper presents the Poisson-randomized gamma dynamical system (PRGDS), a model for sequentially observed count tensors that encodes a strong inductive bias toward sparsity and burstiness. The PRGDS is based on a new motif in Bayesian latent variable modeling, an alternating chain of discrete Poisson and continuous …
Proposes a method for training Bayesian neural networks using synthetic data from Raman and CARS spectra.
The paper explores risk-minimization for exponential additive models, providing mathematical expressions and numerical examples.
We investigate methods for pricing American options under the variance gamma model. The variance gamma process is a pure jump process which is constructed by replacing the calendar time by the gamma time in a Brownian motion with drift, which makes it a time-changed Brownian motion. In general, the finite difference me…
The group Gamma of automorphisms of the polynomial kappa(x,y,z) = x^2 + y^2 + z^2 - xyz -2 is isomorphic to PGL(2,Z) semi-direct product with (Z/2+Z/2). For t in R, Gamma-action on ktR = kappa^{-1}(t) intersect R displays rich and varied dynamics. The action of Gamma preserves a Poisson structure defining a Gamma-invar…
Study of gamma-hedging using rough paths for European and exotic options.
Let F be a family of Borel measurable functions on a complete separable metric space. The gap (or fat-shattering) dimension of F is a combinatorial quantity that measures the extent to which functions f in F can separate finite sets of points at a predefined resolution gamma > 0. We establish a connection between the g…
This paper extends subordinated models to include stochastic time changes, improving financial modeling.
Paper introduces variational inference for Bayesian inverse problems with gamma hyperpriors.
In dynamic topic modeling, the proportional contribution of a topic to a document depends on the temporal dynamics of that topic's overall prevalence in the corpus. We extend the Dynamic Topic Model of Blei and Lafferty (2006) by explicitly modeling document level topic proportions with covariates and dynamic structure…
A Monte Carlo method for pairs trading on mean-reverting spreads with Lévy processes.
Markov jump processes (MJPs) are used to model a wide range of phenomena from disease progression to RNA path folding. However, maximum likelihood estimation of parametric models leads to degenerate trajectories and inferential performance is poor in nonparametric models. We take a small-variance asymptotics (SVA) appr…
These notes are the English version of the paper "Hyperbolicité du graphe des rayons et quasi-morphismes sur un gros groupe modulaire". The mapping class group Gamma of the complement of a Cantor set in the plane arises naturally in dynamics. We show that the ray graph, which is the analog of the complex of curves for …
We introduce a new dynamical system for sequentially observed multivariate count data. This model is based on the gamma--Poisson construction---a natural choice for count data---and relies on a novel Bayesian nonparametric prior that ties and shrinks the model parameters, thus avoiding overfitting. We present an effici…
The paper prices weather contracts using a complex temperature model.
Bayesian model estimates ACT impact on pediatric AML survival.
In this paper, we present Gamma-LSTM, an enhanced long short term memory (LSTM) unit, to enable learning of hierarchical representations through multiple stages of temporal abstractions. Gamma memory, a hierarchical memory unit, forms the central memory of Gamma-LSTM with gates to regulate the information flow into var…
In this paper we propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modelling sparse time-varying networks. A positive parameter is associated to each node of a network, which models the sociability of that node. Sociabilities are assumed to evolve over time, and are modelled via a dynamic point process model. The model is a…
We show that gamma distributions provide models for departures from randomness since every neighbourhood of an exponential distribution contains a neighbourhood of gamma distributions, using an information theoretic metric topology. We derive also the information geometry of the 3-manifold of McKay bivariate gamma dist…