TAKDE optimizes kernel density estimation for real-time dynamic processes.
problem Real-time density estimation in applications like computer vision and signal processing.
method Derives asymptotic mean integrated squared error (AMISE) upper bound for 'sliding window' kernel density estimator and proposes TAKDE as a novel, theoretically optimal estimator.
result TAKDE outperforms other dynamic density estimators in terms of test log-likelihood and runtime.
We study the density estimation problem with observations generated by certain dynamical systems that admit a unique underlying invariant Lebesgue density. Observations drawn from dynamical systems are not independent and moreover, usual mixing concepts may not be appropriate for measuring the dependence among these ob…
The paper optimizes daily storage trading of electricity using dynamic spread densities.
problem Optimizing daily storage trading of electricity based on price spreads.
method Formulated dynamic density functions based on skewed-t representations to model hourly electricity price spreads. Selected the best specification for each spread using the Pinball Loss function and calculated risk associated with spread arbitrages.
result Optimal daily operation of a battery storage facility determined from spread densities.
This paper presents a method for efficient density estimation in nonlinear systems.
problem Accurate representation of non-Gaussian distributions in nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging.
method Uses Seminonparametric (SNP) densities with probabilists' Hermite polynomial basis and Monte Carlo approximation for maximum likelihood estimation.
result Demonstrates that the method can accurately capture non-Gaussian density structure and compute quantiles using fewer samples than raw Monte Carlo.
DenSNet learns electron densities for molecular dynamics, enabling accurate spectroscopic predictions.
problem Lack of accurate electronic observables in MLIPs for molecular dynamics.
method DenSNet uses SE(3)-equivariant neural networks to predict electron densities and total energy.
result DenSNet predicts infrared spectra with excellent agreement to experimental data.
Adaptive neural network approximates stochastic system densities.
problem Approximating high-dimensional stochastic dynamical systems.
method Temporal KRnet (tKRnet) trained with adaptive collocation points and temporal decomposition.
result Improves density approximation for stochastic systems without curse of dimensionality.
SympFormer accelerates attention blocks using inertial dynamics on density spaces.
problem Improving the efficiency of self-attention blocks in Transformers.
method Introduced accelerated attention blocks derived from inertial Nesterov dynamics on density spaces.
result Accelerated attention blocks converge faster than classical blocks while preserving oracle calls.
We model the dynamics of asset prices and associated derivatives by consideration of the dynamics of the conditional probability density process for the value of an asset at some specified time in the future. In the case where the price process is driven by Brownian motion, an associated "master equation" for the dynam…
Optimizes sliding window approach for tracking Gaussian densities.
problem Improving tracking performance of Gaussian density estimation.
method Theoretical analysis of sliding window Gaussian Kernel Density Estimators.
result Empirical evidence shows improved tracking performance with optimal weight sequence.
A new method improves flow matching by dynamically weighting density estimates.
problem High-dimensional integration inefficiency in flow matching.
method Density-weighted Dynamic Stein operators.
result Significant improvement in vector field smoothness and sampling efficiency.
LDDNN learns physical dynamics from data without exact solutions.
problem Learning physical dynamics from data without exact solutions.
method LDDNN topology that learns Lagrangian density from data.
result LDDNN can learn physical dynamics from data.
Introduces HMC method for sampling Gibbs densities.
problem Sampling from Gibbs densities efficiently.
method Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method based on Hamiltonian dynamics.
result Idealized HMC preserves the target distribution and converges under certain conditions.
A new kernel framework analyzes spatio-temporal data from dynamic equations.
problem Analyzing spatio-temporal data from dynamic equations with noisy measurements.
method Kernel-based framework with representer theorem for minimizing error with given samples.
result Minimizes error in solutions of dynamic equations with noisy spatio-temporal data.
Derives continuum model from discrete ε-graphs with connectivity functional.
problem Modeling diffusion in networks with varying connectivity.
method Energy-based continuum limit derivation, neural-network reconstruction of connectivity.
result Error between discrete and continuum energies is O(ε), valid even with fluctuations. Compact models learn photocurrent dynamics from radiation-induced excess carrier density.
problem Accurate but computationally expensive physics-based photocurrent models for semiconductor devices.
method Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) for learning reduced order models from internal state data.
result Physics-aware, compact delayed photocurrent models accurately approximate internal excess carrier dynamics.
This work introduces a new method for coupling base and target densities in generative models.
problem Generating samples from complex target distributions using simple base distributions.
method Developed a framework of stochastic interpolants with data-dependent couplings.
result Constructing dynamical transport maps that serve as conditional generative models.
Paper models and forecasts intra-day electricity price spreads.
problem Forecasting intra-day price spreads for electricity traders and operators.
method Dynamic density functions based on skewed-t distributions, conditional on exogenous drivers.
result Best fitting and forecasting specifications selected using Pinball Loss function.
New method improves sampling from high-dimensional target densities.
problem Sampling from high-dimensional target densities using Monte Carlo algorithms.
method Extends Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Diffusion algorithm with random precondition matrix modeling.
result Significantly improves performance and computational efficiency over standard MCMC methods.
A new method improves quantile regression for high-dimensional data.
problem Handling heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed data in quantile regression.
method Dynamic prototypes-based probability density estimation with conformalized high-density quantile regression.
result Enhanced prediction regions with valid coverage guarantees and scalability to higher dimensions.
This paper studies a limit order book (LOB) model, in which the order dynamics depend on both, the current best available prices and the current volume density functions. For the joint dynamics of the best bid price, the best ask price, and the standing volume densities on both sides of the LOB we derive a weak law of …
Adaptive stopping in MCMC using classifier-based dynamics
problem Sampling from complex, unnormalized probability densities
method Training state-dependent neural classifiers
result Significant reduction in average trajectory lengths
SPH-ParVI uses fluid dynamics to sample unknown densities efficiently.
problem Sampling partially known densities or using gradients in probabilistic models.
method Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) for modeling fluid dynamics to approximate target densities.
result SPH-ParVI provides fast, flexible, scalable, and deterministic sampling for Bayesian inference and generative models.
This work addresses dynamic KDE data structures with robustness to adversarial queries.
problem Efficient KDE data structures for dynamic changing data distributions.
method Developed a theoretical framework for KDE data structures that support subquadratic space, sublinear updates, and adaptive queries.
result Theoretical framework and practical implementation of KDE data structures robust to adversarial queries.
We build on the work in Fackler and King 1990, and propose a more general calibration model for implied risk neutral densities. Our model allows for the joint calibration of a set of densities at different maturities and dates through a Bayesian dynamic Beta Markov Random Field. Our approach allows for possible time de…
Sketching reduces data size for accurate spectral estimation.
problem Estimating spectral density from large simulation datasets.
method Sketching for dimensionality reduction and data compression.
result Sketching provides 90% accurate spectral density estimate with 10% data.
Introduces new info-geometric structure for dynamics on graphs and hypergraphs.
problem Modeling dynamics on discrete structures like graphs and hypergraphs.
method Introduces two dually flat structures: one on vertex space and another on edge space.
result Extends gradient flows to include nonequilibrium dynamics.
Defines foliation criterion for dense isoperiodic leaves in rank 1 affine orbifolds.
problem Dynamics of isoperiodic leaves in rank 1 affine invariant suborbifolds.
method Defines foliation FM and establishes density criterion.
result Establishes criterion for density of isoperiodic leaves.
Computational aspects of the optimal consumption and investment with the partially observed stochastic volatility of the asset prices are considered. The new quantization approach to filtering - density quantization - is introduced which reduces the original infinite dimensional state space of the problem to the finite…
We perform a parallel analysis of the spectral density of (i) the logarithm of price and (ii) the daily number of trades of a set of stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange. The stocks are selected to be representative of a wide range of stock capitalization. The observed spectral densities show a different power-…
The study analyzes online predictions for non-stationary time series under model misspecification.
problem Analyzing predictive properties of statistical methods in non-stationary time series under model misspecification.
method Defining Kullback-Leibler risk, proving minimax predictive densities for dynamic models, extending results to multiple predictive densities.
result Dynamic random walk models produce exact minimax predictive densities under Gaussian assumptions and semi-martingale processes.
Machine learning is used to approximate the kinetic energy of one dimensional diatomics as a functional of the electron density. The functional can accurately dissociate a diatomic, and can be systematically improved with training. Highly accurate self-consistent densities and molecular forces are found, indicating the…
This paper tackles continuous covariate shift by adaptively training predictors.
problem Continuous covariate shift where input distributions change over time.
method Online density ratio estimation method to adaptively train predictors.
result Excess risk guarantee for the predictor through dynamic regret bound.
Improved manifold-adaptive dimension estimator for better data complexity assessment.
problem Estimating intrinsic dimensionality of complex data.
method Revised and improved Farahmand-Szepesvári-Audibert (FSA) estimator, incorporating probability density function and median.
result Median-FSA estimator outperforms existing methods in accuracy and robustness.
Develops methods to learn correlation potentials for time-dependent Kohn-Sham systems.
problem Learning the correlation potential for time-dependent Kohn-Sham systems.
method Optimizing a least-squares objective subject to the TDKS equation using adjoints.
result Learned correlation potential models match ground truth electron densities and can have memory.
Framework learns inter-electronic potential for molecular dynamics.
problem Predicting time-dependent Hartree-Fock dynamics from electron density.
method Developed three models using four-index tensors, preserving symmetries.
result Model with eight-fold symmetry performs best across metrics.
APT improves likelihood-free inference by dynamically transforming posterior estimates.
problem Performing Bayesian inference on simulators with intractable likelihoods.
method Automatic posterior transformation (APT) using neural network-based density estimators.
result APT is more flexible, scalable, and efficient than previous methods.
This paper proposes a new method for automatically selecting the optimal kernel bandwidth in density estimation.
problem The challenge of selecting the optimal kernel bandwidth in unsupervised density estimation.
method The approach uses a topology-based loss function for automated bandwidth selection.
result Demonstrates the potential of the topology-based approach across different dimensions.
Unified framework for sampling from complex densities using PDEs and neural networks.
problem Sampling from complicated probability densities.
method Dynamical measure transport via PDEs and physics-informed neural networks (PINNs).
result Significantly better mode coverage and high accuracy in sampling.
Develops a dynamical method to prove the sharp Berezin-Li-Yau inequality.
problem Proving the sharp Berezin-Li-Yau inequality for convex domains.
method Volume-preserving mean curvature flow and a new monotonicity principle.
result Shows the sharp Berezin-Li-Yau bound for every smooth convex domain.
Novel algorithm PSO improves density estimation for multimodal data.
problem Data log-density estimation for multimodal distributions.
method Probabilistic Surface Optimization (PSO) using virtual stochastic forces.
result PSO-LDE achieves superior log-density estimation accuracy.
L-Cool improves image and language translation by cooling low-density samples.
problem Improving translation performance on fringe samples in unsupervised domain translation.
method Performing Langevin dynamics to move low-density samples towards high-density areas.
result L-Cool enhances state-of-the-art methods in image and language translation tasks.
LFlows model fluid densities and velocities using invertible maps that satisfy the continuity equation.
problem Modeling fluid densities and velocities continuously in space and time.
method LFlows are based on invertible maps that satisfy the continuity equation, derived from classical theory of Lagrangian flows for smooth vector fields.
result LFlows show higher predictive accuracy in density modeling tasks compared to competing models in 2D and 3D.
Tree-based synthesis improves forecast accuracy in GDP and inflation.
problem Improving forecast accuracy in GDP and inflation.
method Developed a nonparametric synthesis function using regression trees.
result Tree-based synthesis leads to improved forecast accuracy.
The paper improves neural network-based conditional density estimation for finance.
problem Capturing statistical relationships between variables using neural networks.
method Best practices and benchmarks for conditional density estimation with noise regularization and data normalization.
result Proposed methodology outperforms other estimators in various benchmarks.
New algorithm samples neural network posteriors efficiently.
problem Challenges of sampling multimodal Bayesian posteriors for neural networks.
method Greedy Bayes method using log-concave coupling of posterior and auxiliary random variable.
result Log-concave coupling facilitates efficient sampling of neuron weights.
Study detects P-type bifurcations in single system realizations using unreliable kernel density estimates.
problem Detecting P-type bifurcations in signals with unreliable kernel density estimates.
method Create persistence diagrams from single system realization, statistically analyze resulting set, compare point process modeling methods.
result Subsampling outperforms other point process modeling methods in predicting P-type bifurcations.
Study SL2(R) dynamics on one-holed tori moduli space.
problem Understanding SL2(R) action on one-holed tori moduli space. method Proved every orbit is either closed or dense, and Teichmuller flow escapes to infinity.
result Every orbit of SL2(R) action on one-holed tori moduli space is either closed or dense, and Teichmuller flow escapes to infinity. Method learns molecular Hamiltonian for accurate electron dynamics predictions.
problem Predict electron dynamics in molecules using learned Hamiltonians.
method Combines linear statistical model with quantum Liouville equation time discretization.
result Predicted electron dynamics closely matches ground truth, even beyond training data.