Dynamic probabilistic forecasts guide optimal decisions in uncertain processes.
problem Optimal decision making in processes influenced by uncertain random factors.
method Stochastic models for probabilistic forecast evolution, calibrated from ensemble forecasts.
result Optimal decision strategies determined using dynamic probabilistic forecasts.
Develops methods for finding counterfactual explanations in sequential decision making.
problem Finding counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making processes.
method Formal characterization of sequential actions and states using Markov decision processes and Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Introduces a polynomial time algorithm based on dynamic programming.
result Algorithm finds optimal counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making.
Chronological Causal Bandits (CCB) tackles dynamic causal decision-making.
problem Dynamic causal decision-making in a system where rewards depend on past interventions.
method Introduces a new MAB problem (Chronological Causal Bandit) where rewards are influenced by a dynamic causal model.
result Early findings show the CCB can transfer information between sequential MABs.
New algorithm improves knowledge transfer in dynamic decision-making.
problem Utilizing data from existing ventures to improve decision-making in new ventures.
method Proposes Transferred Fitted Q Q Q -Iteration algorithm for estimating optimal action-state function Q ∗ Q^* Q ∗ . result Significantly improved final learning error of Q ∗ Q^* Q ∗ function. Batch Thompson Sampling reduces exploration-exploitation trade-off in online decision making.
problem Balancing exploration and exploitation in online decision making.
method Introducing a batch Thompson Sampling framework for stochastic multi-arm bandit and linear contextual bandit problems.
result Achieves asymptotic regret bound with O ( log T ) O(\log T) O ( log T ) batch queries, significantly reducing interactions. As a metric to measure the performance of an online method, dynamic regret with switching cost has drawn much attention for online decision making problems. Although the sublinear regret has been provided in many previous researches, we still have little knowledge about the relation between the dynamic regret and the s…
We introduce tools to capture the dynamics of three different pathways, in which the synchronization of human decision-making could lead to turbulent periods and contagion phenomena in financial markets. The first pathway is caused when stock market indices, seen as a set of coupled integrate-and-fire oscillators, sync…
Spectral method speeds fitting of binary time series models.
problem Modeling binary time series data with latent linear dynamical systems.
method Spectral learning of probit-Bernoulli latent linear dynamical systems.
result Spectral method provides robust, fixed-cost estimator.
We describe theoretical bounds and a practical algorithm for teaching a model by demonstration in a sequential decision making environment. Unlike previous efforts that have optimized learners that watch a teacher demonstrate a static policy, we focus on the teacher as a decision maker who can dynamically choose differ…
New bounds show complexity of adversarial decision making.
problem Understanding sample efficiency in adversarial decision making.
method New upper and lower bounds on Decision-Estimation Coefficient.
result Decision-Estimation Coefficient is necessary and sufficient for low regret in adversarial decision making.
Framework infers Langevin dynamics from stochastic observations of latent systems.
problem Inferring non-stationary Langevin dynamics from indirect stochastic observations.
method Non-parametric framework explicitly modeling stochastic observation process and non-stationary latent dynamics.
result Correct inference of non-stationary dynamics requires accounting for non-equilibrium states and observation duration.
Optimistic pricing algorithm handles online dynamic pricing with censored demand.
problem Online dynamic pricing with censoring of potential demand.
method Optimistic estimates of derivatives for pricing algorithm.
result Achieves i l d e O ( T ) ilde{O}(\sqrt{T}) i l d e O ( T ) optimal regret against adversarial inventory series. Modeling decision-making dynamics in MDD patients using RL-HMM.
problem Characterize reward learning strategies in MDD patients.
method Proposed RL-HMM framework to analyze reward-based decision-making.
result MDD patients show reduced engagement in RL compared to healthy controls.
Machine learning (ML) is increasingly deployed in real world contexts, supplying actionable insights and forming the basis of automated decision-making systems. While issues resulting from biases pre-existing in training data have been at the center of the fairness debate, these systems are also affected by technical a…
Study links cognitive effort to thermodynamic principles, optimizing decision-making.
problem Understanding the energy cost of decision-making in living systems.
method Applied Landauer's principle to analyze belief dynamics in a two-armed bandit game.
result Cognitive energy cost correlates with optimal decision-making outcomes.
Bayesian method estimates dynamics from near-optimal trajectories.
problem Estimating dynamics from near-optimal expert trajectories in reinforcement learning.
method Constraint-based Bayesian approach integrating expert near-optimality.
result Significant improvements in decision-making and transfer success.
This paper analyzes the multi-armed bandit model using path-integral methods.
problem Understanding the stochastic dynamics and optimal strategies in multi-armed bandit problems.
method Path-integral analysis of statistical physics.
result Emergence of multimodal regret distribution with large regrets from exploitation of sub-optimal arms.
A new MDP with Bandits approach for sequential decision making in linear-flow scenarios.
problem Sequential decision making with limited feedback in a linear-flow context.
method Formulated as an MDP with Bandits, using Thompson sampling for action selection and exact dynamic programming for allocation.
result The proposed MDP with Bandits algorithm outperforms other methods in sequential decision making.
Model shows how diversity on corporate boards influences decision-making and innovation.
problem Understanding dynamics of diversity and innovation in corporate boards.
method Developed a dynamic model calibrated with empirical data of firm and board networks.
result Homophily and visibility biases shape the trajectory towards equality in corporate boards.
Study on information evolution in interactive decision making using multi-armed bandits.
problem Understanding information dynamics in interactive decision making.
method Stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, focusing on optimal arm with a fixed margin.
result Distinct growth phases in mutual information, showing decoupling between success probability and information gain.
DCBO optimizes interventions in evolving causal systems.
problem Optimal interventions in time-varying causal systems.
method Combines sequential decision making, causal inference, and GP emulation.
result DCBO identifies optimal interventions faster than competitors.
The study examines robust decision-making in volatile financial markets, finding action robustness is more impactful than uncertainty tolerance.
problem Sequential decision making in high-frequency markets under evolving uncertainty.
method Analyzes two dimensions of robustness: uncertainty tolerance and action robustness, using simulations and empirical evidence.
result Action robustness has a larger impact on profitability than uncertainty tolerance, and excessive robustness can reduce profitability in illiquid markets.
The paper proposes Tier Balancing for dynamic fairness in decision-making.
problem Achieving long-term fairness in decision-making processes.
method Causal modeling with DAGs to investigate dynamic fairness.
result Tier Balancing is a more natural approach to achieve long-term fairness, capturing latent causal factors.
New framework optimizes forecasting and decision-making in dynamic systems.
problem Optimizing forecasting and decision-making processes in dynamic systems.
method Closed-loop framework using bilevel optimization.
result The proposed methodology yields consistently better performance than the standard open-loop approach.
Framework for deferring decisions to experts in sequential medical settings.
problem Myopic and non-adaptive decision-making by ML models in sequential medical contexts.
method Sequential Learning-to-Defer (SLTD) framework using model-based reinforcement learning.
result Adaptive deferral policy improves trade-off between long-term outcomes and deferral frequency.
Prospective learning improves AI performance in changing conditions.
problem Machine learning algorithms struggle with changing data distributions and evolving goals.
method Developed a new mathematical framework called Prospective Learning.
result Preliminary results show improved algorithm performance and applicability to sequential decision-making.
DiffLOB models future market conditions for better decision-making.
problem Passive generative models cannot explore hypothetical market scenarios.
method Regime-conditioned diffusion model for counterfactual LOB generation.
result DiffLOB enables realistic and controllable generation of LOB trajectories.
Interpole learns transparent decision-making policies from data.
problem Understanding human decision-making in opaque environments.
method Interpole combines belief-update and belief-action mapping estimation.
result Interpole provides interpretable models of decision-making behavior.
A novel dynamic Bayesian nonparametric topic model for anomaly detection in video is proposed in this paper. Batch and online Gibbs samplers are developed for inference. The paper introduces a new abnormality measure for decision making. The proposed method is evaluated on both synthetic and real data. The comparison w…
IDS algorithm optimizes sequential decisions in various monitoring settings.
problem Optimizing sequential decisions in complex monitoring scenarios.
method Information-directed sampling (IDS) algorithm for linear partial monitoring.
result IDS achieves nearly worst-case rate optimality in finite-action games.
It has recently been shown that if feedback effects of decisions are ignored, then imposing fairness constraints such as demographic parity or equality of opportunity can actually exacerbate unfairness. We propose to address this challenge by modeling feedback effects as Markov decision processes (MDPs). First, we prop…
New methods improve robust decision-making under uncertainty in off-policy evaluation.
problem Statistical uncertainty and causal considerations in off-policy evaluation.
method Marginal Ratio (MR) estimator, Conformal Off-Policy Prediction (COPP), causal bounds.
result Improved robustness and uncertainty quantification in off-policy decision-making.
Dynamic pricing aims to match power supply and demand in an energy transition.
problem Mismatch between renewable energy supply and consumer demand.
method Formalizes decision-making problem, designs forecasting models, and statistical demand response models.
result Dynamic pricing can synchronise power supply and demand effectively.
New method selects features for sequential decision making.
problem Dynamic feature selection for instance-wise decisions.
method Latent variable model trained in a supervised manner; reasoning across stochastic latent space.
result Outperforms existing methods on various datasets.
Proposes a flexible MGP model for dynamic, sparse correlations.
problem Handling dynamic and sparse correlations in multivariate data.
method Non-stationary MGP with dynamic spike-and-slab prior and EM algorithm.
result Captures dynamic and sparse correlations effectively.
Develops new optimization techniques for decision-making under uncertainty.
problem Decision-making under uncertainty with complex cost functions and nested expectations.
method Introduces Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization (MCCO) and develops multilevel Monte Carlo techniques.
result New optimization techniques reduce scenario complexity from exponential to polynomial growth.
An open question in systems and computational neuroscience is how neural circuits accumulate evidence towards a decision. Fitting models of decision-making theory to neural activity helps answer this question, but current approaches limit the number of these models that we can fit to neural data. Here we propose a unif…
Unified framework for constrained online decision-making.
problem Sequential decisions under stage-wise feasibility constraints.
method Upper counterfactual confidence bounds and generalized eluder dimension.
result Principled foundation for constrained sequential decision-making.
FinHEAR combines LLMs with human expertise for better financial decision-making.
problem Challenges in financial decision-making for language models.
method Multi-agent framework with specialized LLMs for historical analysis, event interpretation, and expert retrieval.
result FinHEAR outperforms baselines in financial tasks with higher accuracy and risk-adjusted returns.
Adaptive RL optimizes testing resource allocation for dynamic software environments.
problem Optimizing resource allocation for evolving software testing environments.
method Integrates Q-learning with hybrid reward design for sequential decision-making.
result Consistently outperforms static and optimization-based baselines in simulation studies.
Quantum mechanics models human perception and decision-making, offering a new approach to understanding social dynamics.
problem Understanding the complex interactions between individuals and groups in social networks.
method Developed a simple computational code based on quantum mechanics principles to model human perception and decision-making.
result Quantum-inspired models can help explain differences in individual and group behavior.
The dynamics of minority games with agents trading on different time scales is studied via dynamical mean-field theory. We analyze the case where the agents' decision-making process is deterministic and its stochastic generalization with finite heterogeneous learning rates. In each case, we characterize the macroscopic…
Trieste optimizes black-box functions using TensorFlow for efficient decision-making.
problem Optimizing complex, black-box functions efficiently.
method Bayesian optimization and active learning with TensorFlow integration.
result Trieste enables efficient exploration of black-box functions.
A new approach predicts next observations without explicit decoding for better control.
problem High-dimensional observations and unknown dynamics in real-world control tasks.
method Proposes a novel information-theoretic LCE approach using predictive coding to develop a decoder-free model.
result The model reliably learns a controllable latent space leading to superior performance.
Deep Bayesian models estimate causal effects for dynamic treatment regimes over long follow-up times.
problem Challenges in causal effect estimation for dynamic treatment regimes with long follow-up times.
method Combining outcome regression models with deep Bayesian models for high-dimensional features.
result Stable and accurate dynamic causal effect estimation from observational data, especially with long-term follow-up.
Deep learning complements OR/MS for decision-making under uncertainty.
problem Sequential decision-making in uncertain environments.
method Integration of deep learning and OR/MS frameworks.
result Deep learning enhances adaptability and scalability in decision systems.
New algorithm optimizes online decision-making with dynamically generated actions.
problem Balancing action generation costs with optimal decision-making in online learning.
method Doubly-optimistic algorithm using LCB for action selection and UCB for action generation.
result Achieves optimal regret bound of O ( T d d + 2 d d d + 2 + d T log T ) O(T^{\frac{d}{d+2}}d^{\frac{d}{d+2}} + d\sqrt{T\log T}) O ( T d + 2 d d d + 2 d + d T log T ) . Algorithm reduces decision-making errors in multi-agent bandit problems.
problem Minimizing decision errors in multi-agent multi-armed bandit problems.
method RBO-Coop-UCB algorithm with Bayesian change point detection.
result Expected group regret is upper bounded by O ( K N M log T + K M T log T ) \mathcal{O}(KNM\log T + K\sqrt{MT\log T}) O ( K N M log T + K M T log T ) .