New framework for dynamic causal graph modeling and effect estimation.
problem Dynamic changes in causal relationships over time.
method Score-based causal discovery with autoregressive model structure.
result Dynamic causal graph with time-varying causal relations.
Graph Neural Network improves causal inference in dynamic systems.
problem Identifying causal relations among multi-variate time series.
method Graph Neural Network approach with score-based method.
result Graph Neural Network significantly outperformed other methods in dynamic Bayesian network inference.
Amortized Causal Discovery learns to infer causal graphs from time-series data, improving performance.
problem Inference of causal graphs from time-series data is inefficient due to fitting new models for each sample.
method Proposes Amortized Causal Discovery, a variational model that leverages shared dynamics across samples with different causal graphs.
result Significant improvements in causal discovery performance demonstrated experimentally.
LOCAL learns dynamic causal structures from time series data efficiently.
problem Challenges in discovering DAG from time series data due to dynamic nature and nonlinear interactions.
method LOCAL proposes a quasi-maximum likelihood-based score function and adaptive modules ACML and DGPL.
result LOCAL significantly outperforms existing methods in dynamic causal discovery.
Novel method models dynamic brain graphs from time series data.
problem Generating hypotheses for dynamic brain states.
method Conditionally weighted superposition of static graphs.
result Improves f1-scores by 22-28% on average over baselines.
Meta-causal states group equivalent qualitative causal dynamics, useful for analyzing system changes.
problem Qualitative changes in causal relationships due to agent actions or environmental tipping points.
method Propose meta-causal states to group causal models based on equivalent qualitative behavior and parameterize specific mechanisms.
result Meta-causal states can be inferred from observed agent behavior and disentangled from unlabeled data.
CASPER improves DAG structure learning by integrating graph structure into score function.
problem Discovering suboptimal DAGs and model vulnerabilities in causal discovery.
method CASPER integrates graph structure into the score function as a new measure in the causal space, enhancing DAG structure learning via adaptive attention to DAG-ness.
result CASPER outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy and robustness.
CauSTream forecasts streamflow by integrating causal graphs for better interpretability.
problem Streamflow forecasting lacks interpretability and generalization due to fixed causal models.
method CauSTream learns causal graphs for meteorological forcings and routing dependencies.
result CauSTream outperforms existing methods, especially at longer forecast windows.
Model discovers causal relationships from video data of physical systems.
problem Discover structural dependencies and causal interactions in physical systems from video data.
method End-to-end model with perception, inference, and dynamics modules; handles unknown interventions.
result Model correctly identifies causal interactions and makes long-term predictions.
Dynamical-VAE learns causal dynamics from POMDPs using future information.
problem Learning accurate state representations from partial observations in POMDPs.
method Dynamical Variational Auto-Encoder (DVAE) with hindsight framework.
result DVAE uncovers causal graph more effectively than history-based methods.
Improved Granger causality method for dynamic time series data.
problem Traditional Granger causality method assumes constant causalities, failing to model dynamic causalities.
method Dynamic window-level Granger causality (DWGC) method with causality indexing.
result Improved DWGC method better detects window-level causalities.
This paper uses LLMs for causal discovery with active learning and dynamic scoring to improve efficiency and fairness.
problem High computational demands and complexities of large-scale data in causal discovery.
method Metadata-based approach, BFS strategy, Active Learning, Dynamic Scoring Mechanism, LLM confidence scores.
result Significantly reduced number of queries and improved efficiency in causal graph construction.
DCBO optimizes interventions in evolving causal systems.
problem Optimal interventions in time-varying causal systems.
method Combines sequential decision making, causal inference, and GP emulation.
result DCBO identifies optimal interventions faster than competitors.
In many application areas---lending, education, and online recommenders, for example---fairness and equity concerns emerge when a machine learning system interacts with a dynamically changing environment to produce both immediate and long-term effects for individuals and demographic groups. We discuss causal directed a…
Enhances LightGCN for credit bond recommendations with dynamic node embeddings.
problem Challenges in static embeddings for rapidly evolving user interests in finance.
method Causal graph convolution for dynamic node embeddings over chronological user-item interactions.
result Significantly enhances LightGCN performance in financial product recommendations.
New model tackles complex spatio-temporal causal inference with dynamic confounders and functional data.
problem Complex spatio-temporal dynamics and unmeasured confounders hinder causal inference.
method PFD-BDCM, a unified generative framework for spatio-temporal dependencies, functional data, and dynamic confounding.
result PFD-BDCM outperforms existing methods across observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries.
Unified model forecasts epidemics with spatial and temporal dynamics.
problem Limited accuracy in traditional models and lack of interpretability in deep learning models.
method CSTGNN integrates Spatio-Contact SIR model with Graph Neural Networks.
result Effective spatiotemporal epidemic forecasting with interpretability.
Graph neural controlled differential equations learn graph dynamics from vertex observations.
problem Predicting future states of dynamical systems on graphs with limited vertex data.
method Incorporates graph topology information into NCDE to predict graph dynamics.
result Informed NCDE requires fewer parameters and lower MAE compared to previous methods.
We establish causal semantics for SDEs and develop methods to reason about them.
problem Understanding causal relationships in systems modeled by stochastic differential equations.
method We introduce a causal graph framework, Markov properties, and do-calculus for SDEs.
result We prove the σ-separation Markov property and do-calculus for causal SDEs. Causality graphs are routinely estimated in social sciences, natural sciences, and engineering due to their capacity to efficiently represent the spatiotemporal structure of multivariate data sets in a format amenable for human interpretation, forecasting, and anomaly detection. A popular approach to mathematically for…
Study optimal adjustment sets for causal policies with hidden variables.
problem Estimating dynamic treatment regimes with hidden variables.
method Developed criteria for graphs without hidden variables to compare estimators, extended to dynamic policies and hidden variables.
result Existence and computation of optimal minimal and globally optimal adjustment sets.
We solve continuous-time latent SDE identifiability using diffusion shifts.
problem Identifiability of latent SDEs in continuous-time time series.
method Environment-induced shifts in diffusion covariance for additive-noise latent SDEs.
result Two diagonal diffusion regimes with distinct variance ratios identify latent coordinates up to permutation and scaling.
CausalTime generates realistic time-series for TSCD evaluation.
problem Lack of realistic synthetic datasets for TSCD performance evaluation.
method Harnessing deep neural networks and normalizing flow for dynamics, extracting causal graphs, and deriving ground truth causal graphs.
result Generated datasets accurately reflect real data and ground truth causal graphs.
Unified framework predicts S&P500 index direction using transfer learning and causal graph.
problem Predicting the movement of financial indices like S&P500.
method Transfer learning, causal graph, multidisciplinary knowledge, VAE network.
result 74.3% accuracy, 67% F1-score, 0.42 Matthew correlation on 12 years test period.
AdaCGP learns dynamic graph topology from time series data, improving over existing methods.
problem Learning dynamic graph topology from time-varying signals, especially in real-time applications.
method AdaCGP is a sparsity-aware adaptive algorithm that recursively estimates the Graph Shift Operator (GSO) through variable splitting.
result AdaCGP outperforms state-of-the-art methods in GSO estimation, achieving improvements exceeding 83%.
Estimates price elasticity from autocorrelated time series using causal graphs.
problem Inconsistent IV estimators in autocorrelated time series data.
method Model equilibrium with unobserved confounders, derive DAG, and use graphical inference for valid IV estimators.
result Valid IV estimators improve understanding of economic dynamics.
The paper proposes Tier Balancing for dynamic fairness in decision-making.
problem Achieving long-term fairness in decision-making processes.
method Causal modeling with DAGs to investigate dynamic fairness.
result Tier Balancing is a more natural approach to achieve long-term fairness, capturing latent causal factors.
DAG-FM discovers causal relationships from heterogeneous data.
problem Challenges in causal discovery from heterogeneous causal mechanisms.
method DAG-FM uses two specialized Transformer-based sub-modules and a robust tabular interaction block to model complex row-column interactions.
result DAG-FM achieves state-of-the-art performance on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Paper constructs unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.
problem Unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.
method Constructs unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.
result Examples of unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.
New algorithms for causal bandits without knowing the graph structure.
problem Causal bandit problems with unknown graph structure.
method Developed novel causal bandit algorithms for causal trees, forests, and general graphs without prior knowledge of the causal graph.
result Regret guarantees significantly improved over standard MAB algorithms under mild conditions.
This research tackles sample complexity in causal graph recovery with temporal heterogeneity.
problem Recovering a unique causal graph from observational data with temporal heterogeneity.
method Integrates time-series dynamics and multi-environment heterogeneity to constrain the problem, enabling a rigorous analysis of statistical limits.
result Unified necessary identifiability conditions and explicit information-theoretic bounds quantify the sample complexity under different noise distributions.
New method uses path signatures for causal discovery in time series data.
problem Challenges in understanding causal structure from observational time series data.
method Path signatures and signed areas for model-free causal discovery.
result Confidence sequence regions help identify lag/lead causal relationships.
CDA framework infers channel influence from aggregated data without user identifiers.
problem Lack of user-level path data due to privacy regulations and platform restrictions.
method CDA integrates PCMCI for causal discovery and Structural Causal Model for effect estimation.
result CDA achieves strong accuracy in estimating channel influence, even under structural uncertainty.
Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) model feedback causal relations in interwoven webs of causality and policy variables. FCMs are fuzzy signed directed graphs that allow degrees of causal influence and event occurrence. Such causal models can simulate a wide range of policy scenarios and decision processes. Their directed loo…
Framework tackles OOD challenges in molecule property prediction by modeling environments.
problem Challenges in modeling OOD samples for molecule property prediction.
method Soft causal learning framework incorporating chemistry theories and cross-attention mechanisms.
result Demonstrates well generalization ability on seven datasets.
New method falsifies causal graphs using outlier events.
problem Inferring causal relationships from data is hard.
method Falsify candidate causal graphs based on outlier propagation.
result Statistical tests control false positives and have power guarantees.
GACBO optimizes unknown causal graphs with interventions.
problem Optimizing a target variable on an unknown causal graph with interventions.
method Graph Agnostic Causal Bayesian Optimisation (GACBO) seeks to balance exploitation and exploration of causal structures and functions.
result GACBO outperforms baselines in simulated and real-world applications.
Algorithm reconstructs triangle-free networks from data, certifying correctness.
problem Reconstructing triangle-free dynamic networks from observational data.
method Developed an algorithm for triangle-free networks, providing guarantees on correctness.
result Algorithm either certifies correctness or outputs a sparser graph with no false positives.
DISTANA predicts and denoises spatial wave dynamics.
problem Identifying causality in spatially distributed, non-linear dynamical processes.
method Generative, recurrent graph convolution neural network architecture (DISTANA).
result DISTANA outperforms alternative approaches in denoising and predicting complex spatial wave propagation.
Study tackles causal effects of close contact on MRSA infections from entangled treatment data.
problem Estimating causal effects of close contact on MRSA infections from observational data with entangled treatments.
method NEAT method that models treatment assignment mechanism and mitigates confounding biases.
result NEAT method effectively estimates causal effects from entangled treatment data.
A new algorithm reduces CI tests for causal graph recovery.
problem Exponential CI tests limit causal discovery algorithms.
method CCPG (Causal Consistent Partition Graph) with polynomial CI tests.
result CCPG efficiently recovers causal graph with polynomial tests.
New model predicts energy prices under different scenarios.
problem Complex causal relationships in energy markets with continuous regime changes.
method Augmented Time Series Structural Causal Models (ATSCM) integrating neural causal discovery.
result Enables novel counterfactual queries in energy markets.
Graph neural network explainer identifies causal subgraphs ensuring predictions.
problem Spurious correlations in GNN explainers.
method Proposes {
ame}, a GNN causal explainer via causal inference.
result Significantly outperforms existing GNN explainers in exact groundtruth explanation identification.
The paper develops CI tests for causal discovery in SDEs.
problem Inferring causal structure from stochastic dynamical systems.
method Developed CI constraints and a CI test for SDEs.
result Proposed CI test outperforms existing methods.
New measures assess differences in causal graphs' separations.
problem Evaluating causal discovery algorithms' output.
method Proposes new distance measures capturing causal graphs' separations.
result Proposed distances assess differences in causal graphs' separations.
DeepCausalMMM models marketing impacts using deep learning and causal inference.
problem Traditional MMM approaches struggle with non-linear dynamics and temporal patterns.
method Combines deep learning, causal inference, and marketing science. Uses GRUs for temporal patterns and DAG structure for channel dependencies.
result Captures non-linear dynamics and temporal patterns in marketing impacts.
Algorithm recovers causal graphs in presence of latent confounders and selection bias.
problem Recovering causal graphs in the presence of latent confounders and selection bias.
method Iterative causal discovery (ICD) algorithm that relies on causal Markov and faithfulness assumptions.
result Sound and complete algorithm that recovers the equivalence class of the underlying causal graph.
Causal inference improves heterophilic graph learning.
problem Capturing asymmetric node dependencies in graph learning.
method Intervention-based causal inference for graph structure learning.
result CausalMP achieves superior link prediction performance.