A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Model predicts traffic incident duration and identifies key features.
Predicting traffic incident duration is a major challenge for many traffic centres around the world. Most research studies focus on predicting the incident duration on motorways rather than arterial roads, due to a high network complexity and lack of data. In this paper we propose a bi-level framework for predicting th…
This paper addresses the problem of predicting duration of unplanned power outages, using historical outage records to train a series of neural network predictors. The initial duration prediction is made based on environmental factors, and it is updated based on incoming field reports using natural language processing …
Study predicts stock transaction durations using LSTM and attention mechanism.
A key barrier to making phonetic studies scalable and replicable is the need to rely on subjective, manual annotation. To help meet this challenge, a machine learning algorithm was developed for automatic measurement of a widely used phonetic measure: vowel duration. Manually-annotated data were used to train a model t…
Paper forecasts financial trading durations using a new point process model.
Market valuation duration is 175 years, but drops to 46 years during crises.
New model predicts financial transaction durations using quantiles.
Generative model predicts daily activity sequences with duration-aware dynamics.
Scheduling surgeries is a challenging task due to the fundamental uncertainty of the clinical environment, as well as the risks and costs associated with under- and over-booking. We investigate neural regression algorithms to estimate the parameters of surgery case durations, focusing on the issue of heteroscedasticity…
Study models parking duration using machine learning and interpretable methods.
Graph Attention Networks predict power outage durations from natural disasters.
Traffic classification has various applications in today's Internet, from resource allocation, billing and QoS purposes in ISPs to firewall and malware detection in clients. Classical machine learning algorithms and deep learning models have been widely used to solve the traffic classification task. However, training s…
In this letter we borrow from the inference techniques developed for unbounded state-cardinality (nonparametric) variants of the HMM and use them to develop a tuning-parameter free, black-box inference procedure for Explicit-state-duration hidden Markov models (EDHMM). EDHMMs are HMMs that have latent states consisting…
New model improves inference on asset market durations.
New econometric results for financial duration models under varying tail behaviors.
Unified asymptotic theory and tests for ACD models reveal infinite-mean durations in cryptocurrency trading.
New conditions for ACD model consistency and normality.
Possible distributions are discussed for intertrade durations and first-passage processes in financial markets. The view-point of renewal theory is assumed. In order to represent market data with relatively long durations, two types of distributions are used, namely, a distribution derived from the so-called Mittag-Lef…
The distribution of intertrade durations, defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, is investigated based upon the limit order book data of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the whole year 2003. A scaling pattern is observed in the distributions of intertrade dur…
Study shows training duration impacts model merging quality, suggesting joint selection of duration and method.
A new method uses burst and inter-burst duration to test long-range memory in financial markets.
Study shows training duration affects model merging quality, suggesting joint selection of duration and method.
Proposes a new model for better speech segmentation.
This paper describes a pattern recognition approach aiming to estimate fuel cell duration time from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy measurements. It consists in first extracting features from both real and imaginary parts of the impedance spectrum. A parametric model is considered in the case of the real part, w…
This paper addresses the question of identifying the time-window in short-term past from which the information regarding the future occupant's window opening actions and resulting window states in buildings can be predicted. The addressed sequence duration was in the range between 30 and 240 time-steps of indoor climat…
This paper introduces the Markov-Switching Multifractal Duration (MSMD) model by adapting the MSM stochastic volatility model of Calvet and Fisher (2004) to the duration setting. Although the MSMD process is exponential -mixing as we show in the paper, it is capable of generating highly persistent autocorrelation. W…
This papers presents a deep learning-based framework to predict crowdsourced service availability spatially and temporally. A novel two-stage prediction model is introduced based on historical spatio-temporal traces of mobile crowdsourced services. The prediction model first clusters mobile crowdsourced services into r…
Intertrade duration of equities is an important financial measure characterizing the trading activities, which is defined as the waiting time between successive trades of an equity. Using the ultrahigh-frequency data of a liquid Chinese stock and its associated warrant, we perform a comparative investigation of the sta…
The intraday pattern, long memory, and multifractal nature of the intertrade durations, which are defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, are investigated based upon the limit order book data and order flows of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003. An inverse…
This paper tackles JSSP with uncertain task durations using DRL.
This article presents valuation of Treasury Bonds (T-Bonds) on Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE) and empirical test of duration, modified duration and convexity of the T-bonds at MSE in order to determine sensitivity of bonds prices on interest rate changes. The main goal of this study is to determine how standard valuat…
In finance, durations between successive transactions are usually modeled by the autoregressive conditional duration model based on a continuous distribution omitting zero values. Zero or close-to-zero durations can be caused by either split transactions or independent transactions. We propose a discrete model allowing…
We consider the classic supervised learning problem, where a continuous non-negative random label (i.e. a random duration) is to be predicted based upon observing a random vector valued in with by means of a regression rule with minimum least square error. In various applications, rangi…
This paper considers magnitude, asymptotics and duration of drawdowns for some Lévy processes. First, we revisit some existing results on the magnitude of drawdowns for spectrally negative Lévy processes using an approximation approach. For any spectrally negative Lévy process whose scale functions are well-behaved at …
Study shows how high-budget agents can manipulate prediction markets.
Todays interactive devices such as smart-phone assistants and smart speakers often deal with short-duration speech segments. As a result, speaker recognition systems integrated into such devices will be much better suited with models capable of performing the recognition task with short-duration utterances. In this pap…
Improves speaker verification for variable-duration utterances using a feature pyramid module.
Machine learning predicts patient recruitment for clinical trials.
New model for time series classification from single example.
Ormerod and Mounfield analysed GDP data of 17 leading capitalist economies from 1870 to 1994 and concluded that the frequency of the duration of recessions is consistent with a power-law. But in fact the data is consistent with an exponential (Boltzmann-Gibbs) law.
The order submission and cancelation processes are two crucial aspects in the price formation of stocks traded in order-driven markets. We investigate the dynamics of order cancelation by studying the statistical properties of inter-cancelation durations defined as the waiting times between consecutive order cancelatio…
Adaptive rerouting reshapes impacts of maritime chokepoint disruptions
BrainCast predicts whole-brain fMRI time series from short scans.
We search for digital biomarkers from Parkinson's Disease by observing approximate repetitive patterns matching hypothesized step and stride periodic cycles. These observations were modeled as a cycle of hidden states with randomness allowing deviation from a canonical pattern of transitions and emissions, under the hy…
We present a model for predicting electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormalities in short-duration 12-lead ECG signals which outperformed medical doctors on the 4th year of their cardiology residency. Such exams can provide a full evaluation of heart activity and have not been studied in previous end-to-end machine learning pap…
Study on scheduling jobs with unknown types, achieving sublinear excess cost.
This paper analyzes arbitrage opportunities in Polymarket's NBA markets.