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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,181 papers · 148 categories

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67133200266 · Jun 202019922001200920182026
48 results for drift inference

Bayesian non-parametric model adapts to concept drifts in streaming data.

problem Inference under concept drift phenomenon for non-stationary data streams.
method Variational inference algorithm for Dirichlet process mixture models with exponential forgetting.
result The proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in clustering problems.

Detects drifts in data for classification tasks using constrained embeddings.

problem Drifts in data affect model performance; unsupervised methods ignore label information.
method Task-sensitive semi-supervised drift detection with constrained low-dimensional embedding.
result Successfully detects real drifts affecting classification performance.

DriftLite improves inference quality of diffusion models without retraining.

problem Adapting pre-trained diffusion models to new target distributions without retraining.
method Lightweight, training-free particle-based approach that steers inference dynamics with optimal stability control.
result Consistently reduces variance and improves sample quality over existing methods.

Estimates neural drift for stochastic equations, improving inference on noisy data.

problem Estimating drift in stochastic differential equations with neural networks.
method Non-parametric estimation using ReLU neural networks, enforcing theoretical bounds.
result Practical method for inference on noisy and rough functional data.

Researchers infer the drift of a high-dimensional OU process with row-sparsity.

problem Inferring the drift parameter of a high-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process under row-sparsity.
method Negative log-likelihood penalized by an 1\ell^1-penalization (Lasso and Adaptive Lasso).
result Sharp oracle inequality and asymptotic consistency for variable selection.

Adversarial validation detects concept drift in user targeting systems.

problem Concept drift in user targeting automation systems deteriorates model performance over time.
method Adversarial validation approach to detect and adapt to concept drift.
result Adversarial validation effectively addresses concept drift in user targeting systems.

Paper develops a hybrid DNN approach for RUL prediction with adaptive drift.

problem RUL estimation challenges in practice, especially online update and uncertainty quantification.
method Hybrid DNN approach with Wiener-based-degradation model and adaptive drift. LSTM-CNN for trajectory prediction and Bayesian inference for adaptive drift.
result Superior accuracy in RUL prediction demonstrated on turbofan engines data.

Paper improves Bayesian inference in federated learning with new algorithm VR-FALD*.

problem Bayesian inference in federated learning with communication bottlenecks and statistical heterogeneity.
method Federated Averaging Langevin Dynamics (FALD) and VR-FALD*.
result VR-FALD* corrects client drift due to statistical heterogeneity, improving convergence.

The paper develops a new framework for detecting distributional drifts conditioned on context.

problem Detecting distributional drifts in machine learning systems when context changes.
method Develops a framework using two-sample tests for conditional distributional treatment effects.
result Demonstrates effectiveness for detecting drift in subpopulations of data.

This paper tackles continuous domain adaptation with a new approach.

problem Learning in non-stationary environments, especially domain drift.
method Variational domain-agnostic feature replay, composed of inference, generative, and solver modules.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach for practical usage.

The paper proposes a method for distribution-free prediction sets that adapt to unknown temporal changes.

problem Distribution-free prediction sets require reliable calibration data, which is often unavailable in real-world settings with temporal changes.
method The method selects an adaptive window to construct prediction sets, optimizing a bias-variance tradeoff.
result The method provides sharp coverage guarantees and is shown to be adaptive to temporal drift through numerical experiments.

Model-based collaborative filtering analyzes user-item interactions to infer latent factors that represent user preferences and item characteristics in order to predict future interactions. Most collaborative filtering algorithms assume that these latent factors are static, although it has been shown that user preferen…

2016-08-17abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper extends neural network approximation results to denoising diffusion models.

problem Improving the efficiency and accuracy of generative models.
method Leveraging connections to stochastic control and neural network approximation.
result Established neural network approximation results for the Föllmer drift are extended to denoising diffusion models.

Neural Diffusion Intensity Models simplify Cox processes inference.

problem Intractable nonparametric estimation and posterior inference of latent stochastic intensity in Cox processes.
method Variational framework using neural SDEs, with theoretical guarantee of ELBO maximization coinciding with maximum likelihood estimation.
result Accurate recovery of latent intensity dynamics and posterior paths with significant speedup.

The paper optimizes interpolation schedules in generative models to improve sampling accuracy.

problem Improving sampling accuracy in generative models with fewer resources.
method Minimizing the averaged squared Lipschitzness of the drift field, using transfer formulas.
result Designed schedules yield more accurate fine-scale statistics at fixed integrator budget.

Drift-Resilient TabPFN learns to adapt to changing data distributions.

problem Real-world data often shifts over time, degrading model performance.
method In-Context Learning with a Prior-Data Fitted Network, using structural causal models.
result Significant performance improvements across various datasets.

This review covers learning under concept drift, including detection, understanding, and adaptation.

problem Unforeseeable changes in data distribution over time impact machine learning performance.
method Reviews and analyzes methodologies and techniques for concept drift detection, understanding, and adaptation.
result Establishes a framework for learning under concept drift with three main components.

A federated model learns shared archetypes from heterogeneous clients in continual learning.

problem Federated learning struggles with client heterogeneity and streaming distribution shifts.
method Clients encode their data as low-rank Hebbian operators, which are sent to a central server for aggregation and factorization into global archetypes.
result Improved global archetype reconstruction and associative retrieval in heterogeneous clients, drift, and novelty settings.

This research identifies flaws in drift detection methods and creates adversarial data streams to exploit them.

problem The challenge of detecting data distribution changes (drift) in real-time systems.
method Developed adversarial data streams to show weaknesses in existing drift detection schemes.
result Demonstrated that common drift detection methods can be fooled by adversarial data streams.

Paper proposes a semi-supervised method for detecting concept drift in streaming environments.

problem Detecting concept drift in streaming environments with limited labeled data.
method Utilizes density estimation of posterior probabilities in partially labeled streaming data.
result Demonstrates superior concept drift detection in streaming environments with limited labeled data.

SHIFT framework identifies subgroups with large ML model performance decay.

problem Large model performance decay in subgroups when deployed.
method Subgroup-scanning Hierarchical Inference Framework (SHIFT) for performance drift.
result SHIFT identifies interpretable subgroups with large performance decay and suggests targeted actions to mitigate it.

The paper studies how expert opinions improve stock return predictions in a market with a hidden drift.

problem Improving stock return predictions in a market with a hidden Gaussian drift.
method Uses Kalman filter techniques to estimate the hidden drift from noisy expert opinions and stock returns.
result The Kalman filter estimates of the drift converge to the hidden drift as the frequency of expert opinions increases.

Classifies polynomial growth solutions to drift-harmonic equations on asymptotically paraboloidal manifolds.

problem Classifying polynomial growth solutions to drift-harmonic equations on specific types of manifolds.
method Inductive argument that alternates between constructing and asymptotically controlling drift-harmonic functions.
result All drift-harmonic functions with polynomial growth asymptotically separate variables and dimensions of spaces are computed.

PDD detects concept drift using explainable AI, improving model performance in dynamic environments.

problem Detecting and adapting to concept drift in predictive models.
method Profile Drift Detection (PDD) using Partial Dependence Profiles (PDPs).
result PDD outperforms existing methods in detecting concept drift and maintaining high predictive performance.

We consider the problem of function estimation in the case where an underlying causal model can be inferred. This has implications for popular scenarios such as covariate shift, concept drift, transfer learning and semi-supervised learning. We argue that causal knowledge may facilitate some approaches for a given probl…

2012-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes a framework to detect adversarial concept drifts under poisoning attacks.

problem Adversarial concept drift in data streams.
method Augmented Restricted Boltzmann Machine with improved gradient computation and energy function.
result High robustness and efficacy of the proposed drift detection framework in adversarial scenarios.

CURIE uses cellular automata to detect concept drift in data streams.

problem Detecting changes in data distribution (concept drift) in data streams.
method CURIE represents data stream distribution in a cellular automata grid and uses its neighborhood rule to detect changes.
result CURIE, when hybridized with base learners, performs competitively in detection metrics and classification accuracy.

Gradient-based methods for games suffer from discrete update steps that cause drift, affecting performance.

problem Gradient-based methods for two-player games suffer from drift due to discrete update steps.
method Derived modified continuous dynamical systems to closely follow the discrete dynamics of games.
result Identified distinct components of discretization drift that can alter or destabilize game performance.