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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

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48 results for drift change

Detects data drift and outliers affecting ML model performance over time.

problem Detecting distribution changes between training and deployment datasets for machine learning models.
method Nonparametrically tests model prediction confidence distributions for changes using Change Point Models (CPMs). Also uses nonparametric outlier methods.
result Demonstrates robustness of the method under various levels of drift class contamination.

DiwE uses regional distribution changes to create diverse ensemble classifiers for concept drift.

problem Handling concept drift in evolving data streams.
method DiwE measures diversity based on regional distribution disagreement and uses it to weight instances and select classifiers.
result DiwE outperforms other algorithms on various synthetic and real-world data stream benchmarks.

Approach to detect and adapt to concept drift in unlabeled streaming data.

problem Detect and adapt to concept drift in high-dimensional, noisy, low-context data.
method Density-based clustering for virtual drift and weak supervision for real drift.
result 90% precision in detecting and adapting to concept drift for 4 years after initial deployment.

Paper proposes a semi-supervised method for detecting concept drift in streaming environments.

problem Detecting concept drift in streaming environments with limited labeled data.
method Utilizes density estimation of posterior probabilities in partially labeled streaming data.
result Demonstrates superior concept drift detection in streaming environments with limited labeled data.

CURIE uses cellular automata to detect concept drift in data streams.

problem Detecting changes in data distribution (concept drift) in data streams.
method CURIE represents data stream distribution in a cellular automata grid and uses its neighborhood rule to detect changes.
result CURIE, when hybridized with base learners, performs competitively in detection metrics and classification accuracy.

Detects drifts in data for classification tasks using constrained embeddings.

problem Drifts in data affect model performance; unsupervised methods ignore label information.
method Task-sensitive semi-supervised drift detection with constrained low-dimensional embedding.
result Successfully detects real drifts affecting classification performance.

PDD detects concept drift using explainable AI, improving model performance in dynamic environments.

problem Detecting and adapting to concept drift in predictive models.
method Profile Drift Detection (PDD) using Partial Dependence Profiles (PDPs).
result PDD outperforms existing methods in detecting concept drift and maintaining high predictive performance.

Paper proposes a beta distribution method for detecting concept drift in adaptive classifiers.

problem Adaptive classifiers need to detect and respond to concept drift in real-time data streams.
method The paper introduces a beta distribution model to monitor model error and identify abnormal behavior as drift.
result The method effectively detects abrupt changes in model error, improving classifier performance.

Paper presents adaptive minimax risk classifiers for multidimensional concept drift.

problem Multidimensional concept drift in supervised classification.
method Adaptive minimax risk classifiers (AMRCs) tracking multivariate and high-order distribution changes.
result AMRCs provide computable tight performance guarantees and improve classification.

New algorithm learns changing discrete distributions with minimal drift error.

problem Learning discrete distributions that change over time with limited past samples.
method Adaptive algorithm using data-dependent bounds to balance statistical and drift errors.
result Tighter statistical error bounds for drifting distributions with or without finite support.

This paper solves a Bayes sequential impulse control problem for a diffusion, whose drift has an unobservable parameter with a change point. The partially-observed problem is reformulated into one with full observations, via a change of probability measure which removes the drift. The optimal impulse controls can be ex…

2014-04-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Machine learning models fail due to concept and data drift during pandemic.

problem Machine learning models trained before the pandemic are unreliable during the pandemic.
method Detect and diagnose concept and data drift in models.
result Model resilience and robustness are crucial for future predictions.

A framework monitors and diagnoses concept drift in supervised learning models.

problem Changes in predictive relationships over time render models suboptimal.
method Score vector monitoring using exponentially weighted moving average.
result Score-based approach detects concept drift more effectively than error-based methods.

ProteuS generates synthetic financial data with regime changes for testing drift detection.

problem Simulating concept drift in financial markets for model evaluation.
method ARMA-GARCH models fitted to ETF data, generating synthetic time series with predefined regime changes.
result Generated datasets reveal the complexity of detecting and adapting to market regime changes.

Machine learning monitors detect motor overheating, adapting to concept drift.

problem Early detection of motor overheating in ships' propulsion systems.
method Machine learning and statistical methods using historical data to adapt to concept drift.
result The proposed monitors provide early detection of overheating during and after concept drifts.

Develops PromptShift-CRC for drift-aware conformal risk control in foundation models under prompt and domain shift.

problem Fixed calibration risk in foundation models due to prompt and domain shift.
method Embeds prompts and responses, measures drift, gives more weight to recent examples, and updates risk online.
result Develops method to control risk up to terms for distribution mismatch and weighted quantile uncertainty.

This research identifies flaws in drift detection methods and creates adversarial data streams to exploit them.

problem The challenge of detecting data distribution changes (drift) in real-time systems.
method Developed adversarial data streams to show weaknesses in existing drift detection schemes.
result Demonstrated that common drift detection methods can be fooled by adversarial data streams.

Paper proposes a framework to detect adversarial concept drifts under poisoning attacks.

problem Adversarial concept drift in data streams.
method Augmented Restricted Boltzmann Machine with improved gradient computation and energy function.
result High robustness and efficacy of the proposed drift detection framework in adversarial scenarios.

Optimal exercise timing of stock options analyzed with varying information on drift change.

problem Analyzing optimal exercise timing of stock options with varying information on drift change.
method Rigorous mathematical analysis and numerical methods to solve optimal stopping problems.
result Characterization of optimal exercise boundaries and smooth pasting properties in both information scenarios.

The study examines how posterior drift affects forecasting accuracy in overparametrized models, particularly in financial markets.

problem Impact of posterior drift on out-of-sample forecasting accuracy in overparametrized models.
method Investigation of posterior drift and its effect on model performance in financial markets.
result Overparametrized models can be sensitive to sub-periods and bandwidth parameters, leading to inconsistent returns.

Detects data drift in deep learning models using neural embeddings.

problem Detecting changes in data distribution in deep learning models.
method Formulates drift detection in a sequential decision framework and introduces a loss function to balance false alarms and quick detection.
result Demonstrates improved ability to balance false alarms and quick detection in change detection.

KT models struggle with student concept drift, but BKT remains the most stable.

problem Impact of student concept drift on KT models.
method Applied four KT models to five academic years of data.
result KT models generally degrade in performance with concept drift, BKT remains stable.

A new geometric metric identifies true data changes from parametrization artifacts in high-dimensional representations.

problem Quantifying representation drift in high-dimensional data using Euclidean or cosine distances can misattribute changes due to arbitrary parametrizations.
method Introducing the Fubini Study metric to identify representations that differ only by gauge transformations.
result The Fubini Study metric isolates intrinsic evolution by remaining invariant under gauge-induced fluctuations, providing a diagnostic for meaningful structural changes.

Paper proposes a method to automatically detect drift in machine learning models.

problem Detecting changes in class-label data distributions that affect model predictions.
method Self-evaluating predictive model degradation to detect concept drift.
result Effectiveness in automatically detecting and describing concept drift.

The paper proposes a method for distribution-free prediction sets that adapt to unknown temporal changes.

problem Distribution-free prediction sets require reliable calibration data, which is often unavailable in real-world settings with temporal changes.
method The method selects an adaptive window to construct prediction sets, optimizing a bias-variance tradeoff.
result The method provides sharp coverage guarantees and is shown to be adaptive to temporal drift through numerical experiments.