New method predicts wind farm power and wakes using weather patterns.
problem Inefficient and computationally intensive wind energy resource assessment.
method Unsupervised clustering of ERA5 data on wind velocity, WRF simulations at cluster centers, and post-processing.
result Accurate long-term predictions of power and wakes with reduced computational time.
Paper defines and solves a problem in representation learning to ensure fairness with high confidence.
problem Learning fair representations with high confidence guarantees for all downstream tasks.
method Formally defines the problem, introduces FRG framework, proves high probability fairness, and demonstrates effectiveness empirically.
result FRG framework provides high-confidence guarantees for limiting unfairness across all downstream models and tasks.
Paper designs a lossy compression method for lossless prediction.
problem Ensuring high performance on predictive tasks with minimal data.
method Characterizes bit-rate requirements for invariant transformations, designs unsupervised objectives for neural compressors.
result Achieves substantial rate savings on ImageNet compared to JPEG without compromising classification performance.
TaskMet learns a metric to improve model performance on unseen tasks.
problem Deep models trained on one task may struggle on another task due to conflicting objectives.
method TaskMet learns a metric in the prediction space to balance task and prediction losses.
result TaskMet achieves better performance on downstream tasks without altering the prediction model.
The paper predicts loss scaling across different datasets and compute scales.
problem Predicting loss scaling across different datasets and compute scales.
method Derive shifted power law relationships between train and test losses.
result Shifted power law relationships hold for various datasets and tasks, improving prediction accuracy.
Language models help text classification tasks by predicting next words.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding of why language models perform well on downstream tasks.
method Mathematical study of the connection between next word prediction and text classification, formalizing it and quantifying the benefit.
result Language models that are ε-optimal in cross-entropy learn features that can solve classification tasks with linear approximation.
CIT and CIF improve feature selection for downstream prediction.
problem Feature selection bias in machine learning models.
method Conditional inference trees and forests with Bonferroni correction.
result CIF ranks top 3 among 18 regression methods and top 4 among 17 classification methods.
Introduces lookahead counterfactual fairness to account for downstream effects of ML predictions.
problem Downstream effects of ML predictions on individuals not considered by counterfactual fairness.
method Introduces lookahead counterfactual fairness (LCF), a new fairness notion that considers future status. Proposes an algorithm based on theoretical conditions.
result Proposes an algorithm to achieve lookahead counterfactual fairness and validates it on synthetic and real data.
Survey on uncertainty in GNNs for improved model reliability.
problem Inherent randomness and model training errors lead to unstable GNN predictions.
method Comprehensive overview of GNN uncertainty theory and methods.
result Integration of uncertainty in GNNs enhances model performance and reliability.
Study improves healthcare time series imputation by considering structured missingness.
problem Structured missingness in clinical data impacts time series imputation models.
method Analysis of different masking strategies on imputation methods using PhysioNet Challenge 2012 dataset.
result Masking choices significantly affect imputation accuracy and clinical prediction.
This study examines how the size and alignment of pretraining data affect the performance of large language models on downstream tasks.
problem Understanding how the size and alignment of pretraining data impact the performance of large language models on downstream tasks.
method Investigated the scaling behavior of large language models in a transfer learning setting, focusing on machine translation tasks.
result The size of the finetuning dataset and the distribution alignment between pretraining and downstream data significantly influence the scaling behavior of downstream performance.
New algorithm balances spatial data approximation and prediction accuracy.
problem Lack of methods considering spatial correlation and downstream modeling in dimension reduction.
method Formalizes approximation and modeling utility as metrics, proposes a balanced algorithm.
result Optimal trade-off between approximation accuracy and downstream modeling utility.
Self-supervised learning improves by predicting known information, reducing labeled data needs.
problem Efficiently learn useful semantic representations without labeled data.
method Develops a mechanism exploiting statistical connections between pretext tasks to learn representations that solve downstream tasks.
result Proves linear layer yields small approximation error and drastically reduces labeled sample complexity.
New approach to fairness in machine learning models using conformal prediction.
problem Fairness in machine learning models' downstream decision-making.
method Theoretical derivation and empirical evaluation of label-clustered conformal prediction.
result Label-clustered conformal prediction often provides a favorable balance between utility and substantive fairness.
New method selects relevant dimensions for better prediction in mixtures.
problem Learning mixtures with limited components for prediction tasks.
method Prediction-focused modeling for mixtures.
result Improves prediction performance compared to non-focused models.
Paper examines adversarial attacks on weather forecasting models, focusing on TC trajectory prediction.
problem Adversarial attacks can mislead downstream TC trajectory predictions in DLWF models.
method Proposes Cyc-Attack, a method using a surrogate model and skewness-aware loss function to generate adversarial TC paths.
result Cyc-Attack achieves higher true positive rates and lower false alarm rates compared to conventional methods.
The Neural Testbed evaluates joint predictions of neural agents, revealing their limitations.
problem Evaluating the quality of joint predictions generated by neural agents.
method Developed an open-source benchmark (The Neural Testbed) to assess agents' marginal and joint predictions.
result Popular Bayesian deep learning agents perform poorly on joint predictions, even with accurate marginal predictions.
Many industrial machine learning (ML) systems require frequent retraining to keep up-to-date with constantly changing data. This retraining exacerbates a large challenge facing ML systems today: model training is unstable, i.e., small changes in training data can cause significant changes in the model's predictions. In…
AI bias arises from human-defined goals, not algorithmic flaws.
problem AI bias due to human-defined goals in LLMs.
method Purpose-conditioned cognition and revealing downstream use of LLM outputs.
result AI bias can be reduced by purpose-aware prompting but not fully by regularization.
New method optimizes treatment policies to avoid winner's curse.
problem Winner's curse in treatment policy optimization.
method Inference-aware policy optimization.
result Optimizes for both estimated performance and downstream evaluation.
The study examines when to trust confidence thresholding in pseudo-labelling regression.
problem Calibrated probabilities from classifiers used for pseudo-labelling need careful handling to avoid bias in downstream regression.
method Developed a diagnostic apparatus to predict and bound the bias induced by confidence thresholding, derived a closed-form expression for the attenuation bias.
result The bias can be predicted from the residual score variance V∗, motivating a structural separation between classifier features and downstream controls. A new method for decision-focused learning reduces computational cost.
problem Efficiently solving combinatorial problems with uncertain parameters.
method Reframed as cost-sensitive multi-output regression, with novel loss components.
result Comparable downstream task quality with reduced computational cost.
Study improves confidence measures in medical imaging pipelines by addressing bias.
problem Bias in metric-based imaging pipelines compromises the efficiency of prediction intervals.
method Formalized symmetric and asymmetric CP formulations, analyzed bias effects, and validated empirically.
result Symmetric intervals are inflated by bias, while asymmetric intervals remain unaffected.
UBM transfers bias mitigation from upstream to downstream tasks efficiently.
problem Bias in fine-tuned language models across various tasks.
method Apply bias mitigation to an upstream model, then fine-tune a downstream model on this mitigated model.
result UBM effects transfer to new downstream tasks, creating less biased models.
This work uses conformal prediction to quantify uncertainty in large language models for multiple-choice questions.
problem Ensuring robustness and reliability of large language models in high-stakes applications.
method Conformal prediction applied to multi-choice question answering.
result Uncertainty estimates from conformal prediction are closely related to prediction accuracy.
A new method for experimental design focuses on predicting downstream quantities of interest.
problem Designs that maximize parameter learning may not maximize downstream quantity prediction.
method Likelihood-free goal-oriented optimal experimental design (LF-GO-OED) using ABC density ratio estimation.
result LF-GO-OED maximizes the expected information gain for downstream quantities.
Study shows uncertainty of deep learning models can be measured from their embeddings.
problem Uncertainty in contrastive learning models for critical applications.
method Estimating the distribution of training data in embedding space and accounting for local consistency.
result Uncertainty of an embedding vector correlates strongly with downstream accuracy.
Paper shows distillation can maintain low model churn.
problem Maintaining low model churn in real-world systems.
method Equivalence between distillation and explicit churn constraints.
result Distillation significantly reduces model churn with minimal accuracy loss.
Pre-training improves model coverage, crucial for downstream performance.
problem Understanding why pre-training enhances model performance.
method Coverage principle, focusing on next-token prediction and model quality.
result Coverage generalizes faster than cross-entropy, improving downstream performance.
Decision-calibrated prediction sets improve power system operations by reducing unnecessary costs.
problem Balancing operating costs and reliability in power systems with renewable uncertainty.
method Learn conditional prediction sets as sub-level sets of norm-based score functions, calibrate uncertainty sets based on reliability of downstream decisions.
result Decision-calibrated sets lead to more efficient operations with smaller uncertainty sets and lower costs compared to standard coverage-based calibration.
Networks are powerful data structures, but are challenging to work with for conventional machine learning methods. Network Embedding (NE) methods attempt to resolve this by learning vector representations for the nodes, for subsequent use in downstream machine learning tasks. Link Prediction (LP) is one such downstream…
DGC clusters data with side-information for better prediction.
problem Improving clustering strategies through better prediction performance.
method Deep Goal-Oriented Clustering (DGC) framework that clusters data using supervision and unsupervised modeling.
result Achieves prediction accuracies comparable to state-of-the-art, while learning congruent clustering strategies.
Object-centric learning improves generalization and robustness in multi-object scenes.
problem Improving generalization and robustness in neural networks for scenes with multiple objects.
method Training state-of-the-art unsupervised models on multi-object datasets and evaluating segmentation metrics and downstream tasks.
result Object-centric representations are useful for downstream tasks and generally robust to most distribution shifts affecting objects, but less so for less structured shifts.
NGAT predicts long-term stock trends using graph attention networks.
problem Lack of effective corporate relationship graph comparison methods and model complexity in stock prediction.
method Developed a Node-level Graph Attention Network (NGAT) for corporate relationship graphs.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of NGAT across two datasets.
FWC creates fair synthetic samples for machine learning tasks.
problem Addressing biases in machine learning models for fair decision-making.
method FWC uses an efficient majority minimization algorithm to minimize Wasserstein distance while enforcing demographic parity.
result FWC achieves a competitive fairness-utility tradeoff and reduces biases in predictions from large language models.
Develops optimal uncertainty quantification for risk-averse decision makers.
problem Quantifying prediction uncertainty for risk-sensitive domains.
method Decision-theoretic foundations connecting uncertainty quantification with risk-averse decision-making.
result Risk-Averse Calibration (RAC) algorithm provides optimal prediction sets for risk-averse decision makers.
This work studies the impact of intra-/inter-class diversity on pre-training datasets and finds a balance for optimal performance.
problem The impact of intra-/inter-class diversity on supervised pre-training datasets and their effect on downstream tasks.
method Empirical study and theoretical analysis of the relationship between diversity types and downstream performance.
result The optimal class-to-sample ratio is invariant to the size of the pre-training dataset and can be predicted.
New approach optimizes decisions based on uncertainty in predictions.
problem Mismatch between prediction accuracy and decision loss in sequential design.
method Directional uncertainty-guided approach to sequential experimental design.
result Directional uncertainty-based design stops earlier and performs better.
MPP trains a transformer to predict multiple physical systems, improving accuracy across various tasks.
problem Training models for specific physical systems is inefficient and requires fine-tuning.
method MPP trains a shared transformer on multiple heterogeneous physical systems, projecting fields into a shared embedding space.
result A single MPP-pretrained transformer outperforms task-specific models on all pretraining sub-tasks and downstream tasks.
Proposes CAL to learn causal adjacency for better spatiotemporal prediction.
problem Suboptimal performance in spatiotemporal prediction due to out-of-distribution data.
method Causal Adjacency Learning (CAL) method to discover causal relations over graphs.
result Calculated causal adjacency matrix enhances prediction performance on out-of-distribution test data.
GRAPE uses graph representation to handle missing data in feature imputation and label prediction.
problem Handling missing data in machine learning tasks.
method GRAPE uses a bipartite graph where observations and features are nodes, and observed feature values are edges. It formulates feature imputation as edge-level prediction and label prediction as node-level prediction, solving these with Graph Neural Networks.
result GRAPE achieves 20% lower mean absolute error for imputation and 10% lower for label prediction compared to state-of-the-art methods.
PanRep learns universal node embeddings for heterogeneous graphs.
problem Learning universal node embeddings for heterogeneous graphs.
method Graph Neural Network (GNN) model with four decoders capturing different properties.
result PanRep outperforms unsupervised and supervised methods in node classification and link prediction.
This work proposes a new pre-processing method for supervised learning to improve fairness without sacrificing utility.
problem Improving fairness in supervised learning without compromising model performance.
method Task-tailored pre-processing approach that balances fairness and utility.
result The proposed method preserves consistent trade-offs among multiple downstream models and improves fairness in computer vision tasks.
Recently there has been a significant interest in learning disentangled representations, as they promise increased interpretability, generalization to unseen scenarios and faster learning on downstream tasks. In this paper, we investigate the usefulness of different notions of disentanglement for improving the fairness…
Paper improves molecular property prediction using denoising autoencoders.
problem Limited data for molecular property prediction from 3D structures.
method Pre-training via denoising for learning molecular force fields.
result Achieves new state-of-the-art performance on QM9 dataset.
Unsupervised learning models can produce accurate but misleading predictions.
problem Widespread misleading predictions in unsupervised learning models.
method Developed Explainable AI techniques to detect misleading predictions.
result Widespread Clever Hans effects in unsupervised learning models.
Proposes Decodable Information Bottleneck for optimal representation learning.
problem Finding optimal representations for supervised learning.
method Integrates information retention and compression with the desired predictive family.
result Optimal representations lead to better expected test performance and can be estimated with guarantees.
Survey on calibration in machine learning, viewing it as indistinguishability.
problem Evaluating continuous probability predictions in discrete outcome settings.
method Defining and measuring calibration error through indistinguishability.
result Calibration measures quantify distinguishability between hypothesized and real-world outcomes.