This letter introduces an abstract learning problem called the "set embedding": The objective is to map sets into probability distributions so as to lose less information. We relate set union and intersection operations with corresponding interpolations of probability distributions. We also demonstrate a preliminary so…
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48 results for “distributional settings”
Two flat sub-Lorentzian problems on Martinet distribution differ in attainable set intersections.
problem Flat sub-Lorentzian structures on Martinet distribution.
method Analysis of attainable sets, optimal trajectories, sub-Lorentzian distances and spheres.
result The attainable set for the first problem intersects with the Martinet plane, while for the second it does not.
Distribution-free binary classification: prediction sets, confidence intervals and calibrationstat.ML
Study three types of uncertainty quantification for binary classification without distributional assumptions.
problem Uncertainty quantification for binary classification in a distribution-free setting.
method Established theorems connecting calibration, confidence intervals, and prediction sets for score-based classifiers.
result Distribution-free calibration is only possible using scoring functions that partition feature space into countably many sets.
Forecasts of multivariate probability distributions are required for a variety of applications. Scoring rules enable the evaluation of forecast accuracy, and comparison between forecasting methods. We propose a theoretical framework for scoring rules for multivariate distributions, which encompasses the existing quadra…
This paper uses multivariate probability models to assess financial system risks.
problem Assessing systemic risk in financial systems.
method Computes multivariate conditional probability distributions for elliptical distributions, focusing on Student-t and Normal models.
result Proposes measures of stress impact and systemic risk.
Generative model learns to autoencode and generate sets of images.
problem Learning to represent and generate sets of images with unknown number of sets.
method Set Distribution Networks (SDNs) learn set encoder, discriminator, generator, and prior.
result SDNs can reconstruct and generate sets of images with preserved attributes.
New algorithms improve label complexity for active multi-distribution learning.
problem Active multi-distribution learning with improved label complexity.
method Developed new algorithms for active multi-distribution learning and established improved label complexity upper and lower bounds.
result Improved label complexity upper and lower bounds for active multi-distribution learning.
Method constructs uniformly valid prediction sets across multiple distributions.
problem Uniformly valid prediction sets across multiple distributions.
method Max-p aggregation scheme and optimization programs.
result Optimal and efficient prediction sets for multiple distributions.
Paper develops a new method to improve model calibration under distribution shifts.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification with different training and test distributions.
method Develops multi-domain temperature scaling to handle distribution shifts.
result Outperforms existing methods on in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets.
Test-time Recalibration of Conformal Predictors Under Distribution Shift Based on Unlabeled Examplescs.LG
New method calibrates uncertainty estimates for image classifiers without labeled data.
problem Uncertainty estimates for modern classifiers are unreliable without labeled calibration data.
method Calibrates uncertainty estimates using unlabeled examples for distribution shifts.
result Proposes a method that provides excellent uncertainty estimates under natural distribution shifts.
Distributed machine learning is an approach allowing different parties to learn a model over all data sets without disclosing their own data. In this paper, we propose a weighted distributed differential privacy (WD-DP) empirical risk minimization (ERM) method to train a model in distributed setting, considering differ…
Novel proof shows continuity of optimal transport feasible set mapping.
problem Continuity of feasible set mapping in optimal transport problems.
method Presented a novel and shorter proof of continuity.
result Established continuity of the feasible set mapping.
Measuring Model Riskq-fin.RM
We propose to interpret distribution model risk as sensitivity of expected loss to changes in the risk factor distribution, and to measure the distribution model risk of a portfolio by the maximum expected loss over a set of plausible distributions defined in terms of some divergence from an estimated distribution. The…
Distributed Nonparametric Function Estimation: Optimal Rate of Convergence and Cost of Adaptationmath.ST
Study on distributed nonparametric function estimation with optimal rate and cost of adaptation.
problem Optimal rate of convergence and cost of adaptation in distributed nonparametric function estimation.
method Distributed minimax estimation and adaptive estimation under communication constraints for Gaussian sequence model and white noise model.
result Established minimax rate of convergence and exact communication cost for adaptation.
Distributed machine learning algorithms enable learning of models from datasets that are distributed over a network without gathering the data at a centralized location. While efficient distributed algorithms have been developed under the assumption of faultless networks, failures that can render these algorithms nonfu…
Adaptive method for prediction sets under changing data distributions.
problem Forming prediction sets in an online setting with varying data distributions.
method Adaptive conformal inference that re-estimates the distribution shift parameter over time.
result Adaptive method achieves desired coverage frequency over long-time intervals.
This paper improves conformal prediction for robust interval estimation under distribution shifts.
problem Robustness of conformal prediction under distribution shifts.
method Modeling distribution shifts using Levy-Prokhorov (LP) ambiguity sets, which capture both local and global perturbations.
result Constructs robust conformal prediction intervals that remain valid under distribution shifts.
Combining Bayesian deep learning and split conformal prediction affects out-of-distribution coverage.
problem Improving out-of-distribution coverage in multiclass image classification.
method Combining Bayesian deep learning with split conformal prediction methods.
result Combining methods can reduce out-of-distribution coverage in some cases.
Two sets of high quality income data are analysed in detail, one set from the UK, one from the USA. It is firstly demonstrated that both a log-normal distribution and a Boltzmann distribution can give very accurate fits to both these data sets. The absence of a power tail in the US data set is then discussed. Taken in …
New algorithm for precise changepoint localization without assumptions.
problem Offline changepoint localization in arbitrary distributions.
method Distribution-free algorithm CONformal CHangepoint localization (CONCH) using exchangeability arguments.
result Derives principled score functions for informative and small confidence sets with normalized length shrinking to zero.
Solving logistic regression with L1-regularization in distributed settings is an important problem. This problem arises when training dataset is very large and cannot fit the memory of a single machine. We present d-GLMNET, a new algorithm solving logistic regression with L1-regularization in the distributed settings. …
Paper improves prediction sets for distribution shifts without labels.
problem Improving prediction sets effectiveness in the presence of distribution shifts.
method Develops ECP and EACP methods to adjust score function based on model uncertainty.
result Consistent improvement over existing baselines and nearly matches fully supervised methods.
Since their introduction a year ago, distributional approaches to reinforcement learning (distributional RL) have produced strong results relative to the standard approach which models expected values (expected RL). However, aside from convergence guarantees, there have been few theoretical results investigating the re…
COMA combines prediction sets from multiple models for online, adaptive prediction.
problem Combining multiple prediction models with uncertainty guarantees.
method Online model aggregation using weighted voting of conformal prediction sets.
result COMA retains coverage guarantees under negative correlation assumptions.
Efficiently updates posterior tree distributions over meta-trees.
problem Updating posterior distributions over meta-trees efficiently.
method Batch updating method for posterior tree distributions.
result More efficient batch updating method.
Sharp bounds for distortion risk metrics under uncertain distributions.
problem Modeling risk metrics under distributional uncertainty.
method Established bounds for distortion risk metrics using specific features of underlying distributions.
result Identified worst- and best-case values of distortion risk metrics.
In open set learning, a model must be able to generalize to novel classes when it encounters a sample that does not belong to any of the classes it has seen before. Open set learning poses a realistic learning scenario that is receiving growing attention. Existing studies on open set learning mainly focused on detectin…
Simplified identification methods for causal inference with arbitrary interventional distributions.
problem Estimating cause-effect relationships from data with experimental interventions.
method Using Single World Intervention Graphs and nested model factorization, we provide algorithms for identifying causal parameters from mixed observational and interventional distributions.
result Our algorithms are complete for certain types of interventional marginal distributions.
Online Conformal Inference with Retrospective Adjustment for Faster Adaptation to Distribution Shiftstat.ML
Paper proposes faster adaptation to distribution shifts in online settings.
problem Violation of exchangeability assumption in evolving data environments.
method Online conformal inference with retrospective adjustment.
result Faster adaptation to distributional shifts demonstrated through numerical studies.
New framework for understanding adversarial and stochastic learning.
problem Understanding the continuum from adversarial to stochastic settings in online learning.
method Distributionally constrained adversaries framework.
result Characterization of learnable distribution classes for various function classes.
A method for predicting credal sets in classification tasks using conformal prediction.
problem Designing methods for learning credal set predictors in machine learning.
method Incorporates conformal prediction for predicting credal sets in classification tasks.
result Conformal credal sets are guaranteed to be valid with high probability.
Paper finds robust -quantiles equal to extremal distributions.
problem Investigating robust models for -quantiles with partial loss information.
method Extending classical quantiles using -quantiles and applying results from robust quantiles.
result Robust -quantiles equal to -quantiles of extremal distributions.
A new framework assigns values to data points considering their distribution.
problem Limited applicability of data Shapley to points outside the fixed data set.
method Proposes distributional Shapley, defining point value in context of data distribution.
result Distributional Shapley values are stable under data point and distribution perturbations.
New algorithm identifies near-optimal policies in adversarial distributed RL settings.
problem Adversarial agents in distributed RL settings that can collude and report arbitrary data.
method Weighted-Clique algorithm for robust mean estimation from batches, combined with novel distributed algorithms.
result Achieves superior robustness guarantees and near-optimal sample complexities in both offline and online settings.
Study optimal offline RL with uncertainty sets and distribution shifts.
problem Optimal offline reinforcement learning with limited data.
method Construct uncertainty sets and distribution shifts, solve robust Markov decision process.
result Least conservative estimator for unknown true distribution.
We consider the energy of smooth generalized distributions and also of singular foliations on compact Riemannian manifolds for which the set of their singularities consists of a finite number of isolated points and of pairwise disjoint closed submanifolds. We derive a lower bound for the energy of all -dimensional a…
Proxy methods adapt to distribution shifts without explicitly modeling latent confounders.
problem Adapting to distribution shifts under latent variable confounding.
method Proximal causal learning, two-stage kernel estimation.
result Proxy methods outperform other methods in adapting to complex distribution shifts.
The effects of saving and spending patterns on holding time distribution of money are investigated based on the ideal gas-like models. We show the steady-state distribution obeys an exponential law when the saving factor is set uniformly, and a power law when the saving factor is set diversely. The power distribution c…
Method learns statistics of return distributions via neural networks and maximum mean discrepancy.
problem Learning probability distributions in reinforcement learning.
method Maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) for learning unrestricted statistics of return distributions.
result Method outperforms standard distributional RL baselines on Atari games.
Transformers show better in-context learning resilience under distribution shifts than simple MLPs.
problem Understanding in-context learning under varying distribution shifts.
method Comparing transformers and set-based MLPs on linear regression tasks.
result Transformers better emulate OLS performance and exhibit better resilience to mild distribution shifts.
Recent work has shown that deep generative models can assign higher likelihood to out-of-distribution data sets than to their training data (Nalisnick et al., 2019; Choi et al., 2019). We posit that this phenomenon is caused by a mismatch between the model's typical set and its areas of high probability density. In-dis…
COP improves online conformal prediction by incorporating data patterns, leading to tighter prediction sets.
problem Overly conservative prediction sets in online conformal prediction methods when data distribution shifts.
method Conformal Optimistic Prediction (COP) incorporating estimated cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores.
result COP produces tighter prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, outperforming other methods.
Algorithm finds small confidence sets for arbitrary distributions.
problem Learning high-density regions in arbitrary distributions.
method Competitive with sets from a concept class with bounded VC-dimension.
result Algorithm finds a confidence set with volume competitive with optimal ball.
The paper proposes a method for distribution-free prediction sets that adapt to unknown temporal changes.
problem Distribution-free prediction sets require reliable calibration data, which is often unavailable in real-world settings with temporal changes.
method The method selects an adaptive window to construct prediction sets, optimizing a bias-variance tradeoff.
result The method provides sharp coverage guarantees and is shown to be adaptive to temporal drift through numerical experiments.
Generative model learns conditional distributions on collective variable levels.
problem Modeling conditional probability distributions on collective variable levels.
method General and efficient learning approach, data enrichment strategy.
result Effective generative models on different level-sets of collective variables.
Training on mixed distributions improves test performance even when components are unrelated.
problem Improving test performance with mismatched training and test distributions.
method Analyzing mixture distributions with different training and test proportions.
result Distribution shift can be beneficial, improving test performance even when components are unrelated.
Robust hypothesis testing designs a test for worst-case distributions using kernel methods.
problem Design a robust test for hypothesis testing under uncertainty sets.
method Data-driven uncertainty sets constructed using kernel mean embeddings and maximum mean discrepancy (MMD). Bayesian and Neyman-Pearson settings investigated.
result Proposed robust kernel tests are exponentially consistent and asymptotically optimal.
Algorithms for hyperparameter optimization abound, all of which work well under different and often unverifiable assumptions. Motivated by the general challenge of sequentially choosing which algorithm to use, we study the more specific task of choosing among distributions to use for random hyperparameter optimization.…