We consider an optimal stopping problem where a constraint is placed on the distribution of the stopping time. Reformulating the problem in terms of so-called measure-valued martingales allows us to transform the marginal constraint into an initial condition and view the problem as a stochastic control problem; we esta…
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48 results for “distributional dynamic programming”
Scalable Autonomous Vehicle Safety Validation through Dynamic Programming and Scene Decompositioncs.RO
New approach uses dynamic programming to efficiently discover failures in autonomous vehicle simulations.
problem Efficiently discovering rare failure events in autonomous vehicle simulations.
method Approximate dynamic programming and scene decomposition to estimate failure distribution.
result Increased number of failures discovered compared to baseline approaches.
Risk measures applied to dynamic Markov processes with varying risk aversion.
problem Investigating dynamic risk measures in Markov decision processes with varying risk aversion.
method Distributional viewpoint on law-invariant convex risk measures, applied to Markov decision processes with latent costs and random actions.
result Existence of optimal policies in finite and infinite time horizons under mild assumptions.
This work presents the concept of kernel mean embedding and kernel probabilistic programming in the context of stochastic systems. We propose formulations to represent, compare, and propagate uncertainties for fairly general stochastic dynamics in a distribution-free manner. The new tools enjoy sound theory rooted in f…
Reinforcement learning has gained wide popularity as a technique for simulation-driven approximate dynamic programming. A less known aspect is that the very reasons that make it effective in dynamic programming can also be leveraged for using it for distributed schemes for certain matrix computations involving non-nega…
Paper presents algorithm for optimal job selection with dynamic scoring.
problem Optimal job assignment in a sequential selection process with dynamic scores.
method Developed using dynamic programming, with extensions for partial and no-information cases.
result Algorithm allows for optimal job assignment with limited information.
New algorithm for RL using mean embeddings of return distributions.
problem Improving reinforcement learning algorithms for dynamic programming.
method Mean embeddings of return distributions, novel algorithms for RL.
result Asymptotic convergence and improved performance in deep RL.
Unified approach to DP problems using Gumbel distribution and variational Bayesian inference.
problem Solving classical optimal path problems in a probabilistic framework.
method Gumbel distribution and variational Bayesian inference for latent optimal paths.
result Unified approach transforms DP problems into directed acyclic graphs with Gibbs distribution.
Fixed-parameter tractability of private synthetic data generation
problem Generating synthetic data under differential privacy
method Linear programming and subsampled private multiplicative weights method
result Optimal error rates across all regimes
In this paper, we analyze dynamic programming as a novel approach to solve the problem of maximizing the profits of a bank. The mathematical model of the problem and the description of a bank's work is described in this paper. The problem is then approached using the method of dynamic programming. Dynamic programming m…
New algorithms for multivariate RL improve decision-making in complex systems.
problem Complex multi-objective decision-making in reinforcement learning.
method Oracle-free and computationally-tractable algorithms for multivariate distributional RL.
result Convergence rates match scalar reward settings and provide insights into reward dimensionality.
Bayesian framework for robust model discovery from noisy data.
problem Robust model discovery from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear systems.
method Bayesian differential programming using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and sparsity-promoting priors.
result Efficient inference of posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty.
This paper considers a non-Markov control problem arising in a financial market where asset returns depend on hidden factors. The problem is non-Markov because nonlinear filtering is required to make inference on these factors, and hence the associated dynamic program effectively takes the filtering distribution as one…
New algorithms for efficient return distribution approximation in reinforcement learning.
problem Efficiently approximating unknown return distributions in reinforcement learning.
method Introduced novel distributional dynamic programming algorithms for arbitrary probabilistic reward mechanisms.
result Proved error bounds for the algorithms in Wasserstein and Kolmogorov--Smirnov distances.
Approximate dynamic programming algorithms, such as approximate value iteration, have been successfully applied to many complex reinforcement learning tasks, and a better approximate dynamic programming algorithm is expected to further extend the applicability of reinforcement learning to various tasks. In this paper w…
This paper improves dynamic hedging accuracy using genetic programming to forecast implied volatilities.
problem Improving the accuracy of dynamic hedging using implied volatilities.
method The paper uses genetic programming to forecast implied volatilities and tests the performance of these forecasts in dynamic hedging strategies.
result Genetic programming-generated implied volatilities improve hedging accuracy compared to static training methods.
Develops a dynamic mean field theory for reinforcement learning.
problem Finite state and action Bayesian reinforcement learning in large state spaces.
method Analogies with statistical physics, interpreting probabilities as couplings and values as spins, solving mean field equations.
result State-action values are statistically independent in the asymptotic state space limit, with exact or approximate equations for computation.
Bayesian approach infers signaling pathways from data.
problem Accurately understand cellular regulation processes.
method Dynamic Bayesian Network structure estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo.
result Efficient sampling of sparse graphs improves inference.
dynestyx: A library for probabilistic programming of dynamical systems
problem integrating state-space models into probabilistic programming languages
method a unified interface for specifying priors and performing inference
result principled uncertainty quantification for state and parameters
Diffusion models' sampling paths lie in a low-dimensional subspace, resembling boomerangs.
problem Understanding the geometric structure of diffusion-based generative models.
method Characterization of deterministic sampling trajectories using low-dimensional subspace and kernel-estimated data modeling.
result Sampling trajectories in diffusion models are confined to a low-dimensional subspace and exhibit a boomerang shape.
New method uses dynamic programming for meta continual learning.
problem Challenges of generalization and catastrophic forgetting in sequential learning.
method Developed a theoretical framework using dynamic programming for meta continual learning.
result Theoretical and practical method achieves better accuracy than existing methods.
Study improves dynamic PT fleet optimization under noisy demand predictions.
problem Accurately predicting dynamic public transport demand for effective fleet management.
method Experimental case study in Copenhagen, using linear programming to optimize fleets.
result Optimized fleet performance is mainly affected by noise distribution skew and large errors.
We consider the problem of finding model-independent bounds on the price of an Asian option, when the call prices at the maturity date of the option are known. Our methods differ from most approaches to model-independent pricing in that we consider the problem as a dynamic programming problem, where the controlled proc…
A new method learns to stop with minimal data, outperforming traditional approaches.
problem Optimal stopping problems with unknown distributions.
method Explore-then-exploit approach with logarithmic exploration phase.
result Performance comparable to full information DP solution with minimal exploration.
DynamicPPL speeds up probabilistic modeling in Julia.
problem Developing and executing complex dynamic probabilistic models efficiently.
method Modular Julia library with a DSL, tracing data structure, and contextual dispatch.
result Achieves computational performance close to or better than Stan.
Exact computation of posterior distribution of mixture weights in hierarchical Bayesian modelsstat.ME
This paper computes exact posterior distributions of mixture weights in hierarchical Bayesian models.
problem Uncertainty in class membership or data-generating processes in heterogeneous data.
method Exact marginalization of mixture weights using dynamic programming and FFT for two components, and joint dynamic program for K >= 3 components.
result Exact posterior distributions of mixture weights are finite mixtures of Beta distributions, providing credible intervals and per-observation local false-discovery rates.
Approximate dynamic programming is a popular method for solving large Markov decision processes. This paper describes a new class of approximate dynamic programming (ADP) methods- distributionally robust ADP-that address the curse of dimensionality by minimizing a pessimistic bound on the policy loss. This approach tur…
Framework optimizes battery storage for markets by separating long-term degradation from short-term market dynamics.
problem Intractable computation due to timescale mismatch between battery degradation and market dynamics.
method Approximate dynamic programming with value function approximation and pseudo-time encoding.
result Policy outperforms benchmarks in real-time market scenarios.
Unsupervised clustering of series using dynamic programming.
problem Clustering coherent segments in multi-variate series.
method Dynamic programming algorithm with constraints.
result Clusters of coherent segments identified using Waxman-Smits equation.
DP-Net uses dynamic programming for efficient deep neural network compression.
problem Efficiently compressing deep neural networks while maintaining accuracy.
method Dynamic Programming for optimal weight quantization and clustering-friendly training.
result Achieves up to 77X compression ratio on Wide ResNet with minimal accuracy loss.
Paper tackles robust optimization under uncertainty using nested distance.
problem Optimizing under distributionally robust uncertainty with nested distance.
method Equivalent recursive and dynamic programming reformulations for tractable optimization.
result Optimal robust policies can be found efficiently using convex optimization.
We propose a formulation for nonlinear recurrent models that includes simple parametric models of recurrent neural networks as a special case. The proposed formulation leads to a natural estimator in the form of a convex program. We provide a sample complexity for this estimator in the case of stable dynamics, where th…
Deep learning solves dynamic programming with recursive utility.
problem Challenges in solving high-dimensional discrete-time dynamic programming problems with recursive utility.
method Certainty Equivalent Learning (CEL) algorithm that learns certainty-equivalent value directly with neural networks.
result Accurate value and policy approximations in high-dimensional problems, comparable to VFI in some cases.
In this paper, we consider the problem of optimization of a portfolio consisting of securities. An investor with an initial capital, is interested in constructing a portfolio of securities. If the prices of securities change, the investor shall decide on reallocation of the portfolio. At each moment of time, the prices…
One approach for constructing copula functions is by multiplication. Given that products of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) are also CDFs, an adjustment to this multiplication will result in a copula model, as discussed by Liebscher (J Mult Analysis, 2008). Parameterizing models via products of CDFs has some a…
Optimal transport is #P-hard when components are independent, even with approximate solutions.
problem Computational complexity of optimal transport with independent marginals.
method Proved #P-hardness and developed a pseudo-polynomial time approximation algorithm.
result Optimal transport is #P-hard even with independent components and approximate solutions.
BCI provides calibrated prediction intervals for time series forecasts.
problem Calibration of prediction intervals for time series forecasts.
method BCI wraps around any time series forecasting models and optimizes interval lengths using dynamic programming.
result BCI achieves long-term coverage under arbitrary distribution shifts and temporal dependence.
Novel framework for risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with robustness against uncertainty.
problem Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with uncertainty in transition dynamics.
method Developed a risk-sensitive robust Markov decision process (RSRMDP), derived its Bellman equation, and proposed a Bayesian Dynamic Programming (Bayesian DP) algorithm.
result Demonstrated convergence to near-optimal policies and analyzed sample and computational complexities.
Markov Observation Modelsstat.ML
Expands Hidden Markov Model to include Markov chain observations.
problem Handling Markov chain observations in Hidden Markov Models.
method Developed Expectation-Maximization algorithm and Viterbi algorithm analogs.
result Estimates transition probabilities for hidden states and observations.
Optimal Control Theory optimizes neural networks, improving robustness and efficiency.
problem Optimizing deep neural networks (DNNs) for better performance and efficiency.
method Integrating Optimal Control Theory with Backpropagation to develop a new optimizer.
result Optimal Control Theoretic Neural Optimizer (OCNOpt) improves upon existing methods in robustness and efficiency.
New method solves nonseparable stochastic control problems.
problem Nonseparable and non-monotonic stochastic control problems.
method Scenario-decomposition solution framework using progressive hedging algorithm.
result Extends reach of stochastic optimal control.
A neural network approach solves dynamic portfolio optimization without dynamic programming.
problem Dynamic portfolio optimization with multiple constraints and high rebalancing frequency.
method Parsimonious neural network without dynamic programming, avoiding high-dimensional expectations.
result Proves convergence to theoretical optimal solution under general conditions.
Unified approach to path planning using probabilistic inference on factor graphs.
problem Path planning problems using probabilistic inference.
method Unified framework using probabilistic factor graphs and message composition rules.
result Unified approach includes various algorithms like Sum-product, Max-product, Dynamic programming, and mixed criteria.
What is a systematic way to efficiently apply a wide spectrum of advanced ML programs to industrial scale problems, using Big Models (up to 100s of billions of parameters) on Big Data (up to terabytes or petabytes)? Modern parallelization strategies employ fine-grained operations and scheduling beyond the classic bulk-…
New method optimizes prediction set volume in conformal prediction.
problem Achieving volume optimality in conformal prediction without sacrificing coverage guarantees.
method Dynamic programming algorithm for finding near-optimal volume unions of k-intervals.
result Efficient algorithm finds unions of k-intervals with near-optimal volume for any distribution.
New method detects change-points in population genetics.
problem Identifying homozygosity islands in a population.
method Penalized maximum likelihood approach with dynamic programming and greedy algorithms.
result Consistent detection of homozygosity islands in population genetics.
We present a new algorithm for approximate inference in probabilistic programs, based on a stochastic gradient for variational programs. This method is efficient without restrictions on the probabilistic program; it is particularly practical for distributions which are not analytically tractable, including highly struc…
Supporting evidence for adaptive feature program across diverse models.
problem Analyzing feature learning in neural networks.
method Over-parameterized sequence models and feature error measure (FEM).
result FEM is decreasing during training of adaptive feature models.