A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new method for averaging probability distributions based on optimal weak mass transport.
Hierarchical statistical models are widely employed in information science and data engineering. The models consist of two types of variables: observable variables that represent the given data and latent variables for the unobservable labels. An asymptotic analysis of the models plays an important role in evaluating t…
Domain adaptation is essential to enable wide usage of deep learning based networks trained using large labeled datasets. Adversarial learning based techniques have shown their utility towards solving this problem using a discriminator that ensures source and target distributions are close. However, here we suggest tha…
A new model calculates LGD distribution based on firm value and credit market conditions.
The vicinal risk minimization (VRM) principle, first proposed by \citet{vapnik1999nature}, is an empirical risk minimization (ERM) variant that replaces Dirac masses with vicinal functions. Although there is strong numerical evidence showing that VRM outperforms ERM if appropriate vicinal functions are chosen, a compre…
In the spirit of the emergent field of econophysics, a goodness-of-fit test for the Power-Law distribution, based on the Empirical Distribution Function (EDF) is presented, and related problems are discussed. An analysis of the tail behaviour of the daily logarithmic variation of the Mexican Stock Market Index (IPC), s…
A definition for elliptical tempered stable distribution, based on the characteristic function, have been explained which involve a unique spectral measure. This definition provides a framework for creating a connection between infinite divisible distribution, and particularly elliptical tempered stable distribution, w…
This research tackles group fairness in predictive process monitoring by ensuring predictions are independent of sensitive group membership.
Study examines short-term IVS dynamics using a model-independent approach.
The problem of categorical data analysis in high dimensions is considered. A discussion of the fundamental difficulties of probability modeling is provided, and a solution to the derivation of high dimensional probability distributions based on Bayesian learning of clique tree decomposition is presented. The main contr…
Dida learns meta-features invariant to feature permutations.
This paper studies binary classification problem associated with a family of loss functions called large-margin unified machines (LUM), which offers a natural bridge between distribution-based likelihood approaches and margin-based approaches. It also can overcome the so-called data piling issue of support vector machi…
LDAO addresses imbalanced regression by learning local distribution structures.
New KL-divergence for Gaussian distributions based on Wasserstein geometry.
We consider the risk sharing problem for capital requirements induced by capital adequacy tests and security markets. The agents involved in the sharing procedure may be heterogeneous in that they apply varying capital adequacy tests and have access to different security markets. We discuss conditions under which there…
We derive a new discrepancy statistic for measuring differences between two probability distributions based on combining Stein's identity with the reproducing kernel Hilbert space theory. We apply our result to test how well a probabilistic model fits a set of observations, and derive a new class of powerful goodness-o…
Random variables of the generalized Pareto distribution, can be transformed to that of the Pareto distribution. Explicit expressions exist for the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the Pareto distribution. The performance of the estimation of the shape parameter of generalized Pareto distributed using …
We propose a new metric to measure domain divergence and a new domain adaptation method for time-series classification. The metric belongs to the class of probability distributions-based metrics, is transductive, and does not assume the presence of source data samples. The 2-stage method utilizes an improved autoregres…
Labor productivity was studied at the microscopic level in terms of distributions based on individual firm financial data from Japan and the US. A power-law distribution in terms of firms and sector productivity was found in both countries' data. The labor productivities were not equal for nation and sectors, in contra…
This paper introduces a noise-robust clustering method using distribution distances.
Local robustness verification can verify that a neural network is robust wrt. any perturbation to a specific input within a certain distance. We call this distance Robustness Radius. We observe that the robustness radii of correctly classified inputs are much larger than that of misclassified inputs which include adver…
In this paper, we introduce a novel technique based on the Secure Selective Convolutional (SSC) techniques in the training loop that increases the robustness of a given DNN by allowing it to learn the data distribution based on the important edges in the input image. We validate our technique on Convolutional DNNs agai…
We present a simple approach to forecasting conditional probability distributions of asset returns. We work with a parsimonious specification of ordered binary choice regression that imposes a connection on sign predictability across different quantiles. The model forecasts the future conditional probability distributi…
We propose a new method of measuring the third and fourth moments of return distribution based on quadratic variation method when the return process is assumed to have zero drift. The realized third and fourth moments variations computed from high frequency return series are good approximations to corresponding actual …
Survey on importance weighting in machine learning applications.
Construction of ambiguity set in robust optimization relies on the choice of divergences between probability distributions. In distribution learning, choosing appropriate probability distributions based on observed data is critical for approximating the true distribution. To improve the performance of machine learning …
Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) is a deterministic sampling algorithm that iteratively transports a set of particles to approximate given distributions, based on an efficient gradient-based update that guarantees to optimally decrease the KL divergence within a function space. This paper develops the first th…
The estimation of an f-divergence between two probability distributions based on samples is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. Most works study this problem under very weak assumptions, in which case it is provably hard. We consider the case of stronger structural assumptions that are commonly sa…
Combinatorial dimensions play an important role in the theory of machine learning. For example, VC dimension characterizes PAC learning, SQ dimension characterizes weak learning with statistical queries, and Littlestone dimension characterizes online learning. In this paper we aim to develop combinatorial dimensions th…
European options can be priced when returns follow a Student's t-distribution, provided that the asset is capped in value or the distribution is truncated. We call pricing of options using a log Student's t-distribution a Gosset approach, in honour of W.S. Gosset. In this paper, we compare the greeks for Gosset and Bla…
Implementing a set of microeconomic criteria, we develop price dynamics equations using a function of demand/supply with key symmetry properties. The function of demand/supply can be linear or nonlinear. The type of function determines the nature of the tail of the distribution based on the randomness in the supply and…
The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is one of the most popular methods used to solve the problem of parametric distribution-based clustering in unsupervised learning. In this paper, we propose to analyze a generalized EM (GEM) algorithm in the context of Gaussian mixture models, where the maximization step in t…
We propose a new blind source separation algorithm based on mixtures of alpha-stable distributions. Complex symmetric alpha-stable distributions have been recently showed to better model audio signals in the time-frequency domain than classical Gaussian distributions thanks to their larger dynamic range. However, infer…
Estimates covariance matrices using Markov chain Monte Carlo with improved sample complexity.
Bayesian framework for image inversion using regularization by denoising.
The problem of f-divergence estimation is important in the fields of machine learning, information theory, and statistics. While several nonparametric divergence estimators exist, relatively few have known convergence properties. In particular, even for those estimators whose MSE convergence rates are known, the asympt…
New methods connect low-loss points on neural network surfaces.
Recent studies classify the topology of proteins by analysing the distribution of their projections using knotoids. The approximation of this distribution depends on the number of projection directions that are sampled. Here we investigate the relation between knotoids differing only by small perturbations of the direc…
New method uses fractional posteriors for semiparametric inference with improved uncertainty quantification.
The expectile can be considered as a generalization of quantile. While expected shortfall is a quantile based risk measure, we study its counterpart -- the expectile based expected shortfall -- where expectile takes the place of quantile. We provide its dual representation in terms of Bochner integral. Among other prop…
Probabilistic graphical models compactly represent joint distributions by decomposing them into factors over subsets of random variables. In Bayesian networks, the factors are conditional probability distributions. For many problems, common information exists among those factors. Adding similarity restrictions can be v…
This paper studies directed exploration for reinforcement learning agents by tracking uncertainty about the value of each available action. We identify two sources of uncertainty that are relevant for exploration. The first originates from limited data (parametric uncertainty), while the second originates from the dist…
Paper proposes a new generative model for discrete distributions using flows on submanifolds.
The literature on structured prediction for NLP describes a rich collection of distributions and algorithms over sequences, segmentations, alignments, and trees; however, these algorithms are difficult to utilize in deep learning frameworks. We introduce Torch-Struct, a library for structured prediction designed to tak…
A new comprehensive approach to nonlinear time series analysis and modeling is developed in the present paper. We introduce novel data-specific mid-distribution based Legendre Polynomial (LP) like nonlinear transformations of the original time series Y(t) that enables us to adapt all the existing stationary linear Gaus…
A simple method flags images as out-of-distribution based on their distance to nearest neighbors.
Evaluation and validation of complicated control systems are crucial to guarantee usability and safety. Usually, failure happens in some very rarely encountered situations, but once triggered, the consequence is disastrous. Accelerated Evaluation is a methodology that efficiently tests those rarely-occurring yet critic…
Volume weighted average price (VWAP) options are a popular security type in many countries, but despite their popularity very few pricing models have been developed so far for VWAP options. This can be explained by the fact that the VWAP pricing problem is set in an incomplete market since there is no underlying with w…