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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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140281421561 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for distribution drift

New algorithm learns changing discrete distributions with minimal drift error.

problem Learning discrete distributions that change over time with limited past samples.
method Adaptive algorithm using data-dependent bounds to balance statistical and drift errors.
result Tighter statistical error bounds for drifting distributions with or without finite support.

DiwE uses regional distribution changes to create diverse ensemble classifiers for concept drift.

problem Handling concept drift in evolving data streams.
method DiwE measures diversity based on regional distribution disagreement and uses it to weight instances and select classifiers.
result DiwE outperforms other algorithms on various synthetic and real-world data stream benchmarks.

Detects data drift and outliers affecting ML model performance over time.

problem Detecting distribution changes between training and deployment datasets for machine learning models.
method Nonparametrically tests model prediction confidence distributions for changes using Change Point Models (CPMs). Also uses nonparametric outlier methods.
result Demonstrates robustness of the method under various levels of drift class contamination.

CURIE uses cellular automata to detect concept drift in data streams.

problem Detecting changes in data distribution (concept drift) in data streams.
method CURIE represents data stream distribution in a cellular automata grid and uses its neighborhood rule to detect changes.
result CURIE, when hybridized with base learners, performs competitively in detection metrics and classification accuracy.

The paper develops a new framework for detecting distributional drifts conditioned on context.

problem Detecting distributional drifts in machine learning systems when context changes.
method Develops a framework using two-sample tests for conditional distributional treatment effects.
result Demonstrates effectiveness for detecting drift in subpopulations of data.

DDG-DA predicts future data distribution to adapt models for predictable concept drift.

problem Adapting models to streaming data with predictable concept drift.
method Train a predictor to forecast future data distribution, generate training samples, and train models on them.
result Significant improvement on multiple models in real-world tasks.

With today's abundant streams of data, the only constant we can rely on is change. For stream classification algorithms, it is necessary to adapt to concept drift. This can be achieved by monitoring the model error, and triggering counter measures as changes occur. In this paper, we propose a drift detection mechanism …

2018-11-27abs ↗pdf ↗

New budget quantifies drift in closed-loop learning, improving reproducibility.

problem Characterizing statistical learning under distributional drift in closed-loop settings.
method Introduces an intrinsic drift budget CTC_T quantifying cumulative information-geometric motion of the data distribution.
result Proves a drift-feedback bound of order T1/2+CT/TT^{-1/2}+C_T/T for prequential reproducibility, up to controlled second-order remainder terms.

Concept drift is formally defined as the change in joint distribution of a set of input variables X and a target variable y. The two types of drift that are extensively studied are real drift and virtual drift where the former is the change in posterior probabilities p(y|X) while the latter is the change in distributio…

2019-09-25abs ↗pdf ↗

This research identifies flaws in drift detection methods and creates adversarial data streams to exploit them.

problem The challenge of detecting data distribution changes (drift) in real-time systems.
method Developed adversarial data streams to show weaknesses in existing drift detection schemes.
result Demonstrated that common drift detection methods can be fooled by adversarial data streams.

PDD detects concept drift using explainable AI, improving model performance in dynamic environments.

problem Detecting and adapting to concept drift in predictive models.
method Profile Drift Detection (PDD) using Partial Dependence Profiles (PDPs).
result PDD outperforms existing methods in detecting concept drift and maintaining high predictive performance.

DRIFT uses neural flows to replace distributional regression models.

problem Lack of neural network representations for distributional regression models.
method Inverse flow transformations (DRIFT) for distributional regression.
result Neural representations in DRIFT match classical statistical methods in performance.

We study a problem of finding an optimal stopping strategy to liquidate an asset with unknown drift. Taking a Bayesian approach, we model the initial beliefs of an individual about the drift parameter by allowing an arbitrary probability distribution to characterise the uncertainty about the drift parameter. Filtering …

2015-09-02abs ↗pdf ↗

This work bridges outlier and drift detection by comparing inputs to a part of the reference distribution.

problem Monitoring machine learning models to ensure they operate within their validated distribution.
method Comparing a set of inputs to a chosen part of the reference distribution.
result A new approach that bridges outlier detection and drift detection.

Investment strategy in uncertain markets improved by learning and risk-ambiguity preferences.

problem Investment in financial markets with unknown drift coefficients.
method Optimization under KMM approach, considering risk and ambiguity preferences.
result Optimal investment strategy can be adjusted based on prior drift distribution.

This review covers learning under concept drift, including detection, understanding, and adaptation.

problem Unforeseeable changes in data distribution over time impact machine learning performance.
method Reviews and analyzes methodologies and techniques for concept drift detection, understanding, and adaptation.
result Establishes a framework for learning under concept drift with three main components.

We present a new analysis of the problem of learning with drifting distributions in the batch setting using the notion of discrepancy. We prove learning bounds based on the Rademacher complexity of the hypothesis set and the discrepancy of distributions both for a drifting PAC scenario and a tracking scenario. Our boun…

2012-05-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper studies identifiability and stability of drifting fields in generative modeling.

problem Identify and stabilize drifting fields in generative modeling.
method Introduces companion-elliptic kernel families to address limitations of Laplace kernel.
result Establishes field identifiability and demonstrates scalar observables for weak convergence.

The paper explores identifiability and stability in drifting fields using companion-elliptic kernels.

problem Identifying and stabilizing drifting fields in generative modeling.
method Introduces companion-elliptic kernel families and analyzes their properties to address identifiability and stability issues.
result Established field identifiability for arbitrary Borel probability measures and demonstrated that field convergence alone does not guarantee weak convergence.

KOMET identifies Koopman operators from model parameter trajectories to adapt to evolving data distributions.

problem Adaptation of parametric models to non-stationary environments.
method Data-driven framework using Koopman operator identification and Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD).
result KOMET achieves high autonomous-rollout accuracies of 0.981 to 1.000 over 100 time steps on various drifting datasets.

Detects drifts in data for classification tasks using constrained embeddings.

problem Drifts in data affect model performance; unsupervised methods ignore label information.
method Task-sensitive semi-supervised drift detection with constrained low-dimensional embedding.
result Successfully detects real drifts affecting classification performance.

The paper proposes a method for distribution-free prediction sets that adapt to unknown temporal changes.

problem Distribution-free prediction sets require reliable calibration data, which is often unavailable in real-world settings with temporal changes.
method The method selects an adaptive window to construct prediction sets, optimizing a bias-variance tradeoff.
result The method provides sharp coverage guarantees and is shown to be adaptive to temporal drift through numerical experiments.

Classifiers operating in a dynamic, real world environment, are vulnerable to adversarial activity, which causes the data distribution to change over time. These changes are traditionally referred to as concept drift, and several approaches have been developed in literature to deal with the problem of drift handling an…

2018-03-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Framework monitors insurance pricing models for drift and recalibration.

problem Maintaining predictive performance of pricing models in evolving insurance portfolios.
method Formalizes deviance loss and Murphy's score, studies Gini score, develops monitoring framework.
result Framework guides decisions on refitting or recalibrating pricing models.

Improved Adam for time series forecasting with distributional drift.

problem Non-stationary data challenges Adam's effectiveness.
method Proposed TS_Adam, removing Adam's second-order bias correction.
result TS_Adam achieves 12.8% reduction in MSE and 5.7% in MAE on ETT datasets.

MLDemon monitors ML systems post-deployment, improving reliability with real-time performance estimates and expert labels.

problem Ensuring reliability of machine learning systems post-deployment, especially when user inputs differ from training data.
method Integrates unlabeled and on-demand labeled data to monitor ML model performance in real-time, deciding when to acquire expert labels.
result Outperforms existing approaches in temporal datasets with diverse distribution drifts, providing theoretical optimality for distribution drifts.

FedElasticNet reduces communication costs and handles client drift in FL.

problem Expensive communication costs and client drift issues in federated learning.
method Leverages elastic net regularizers to sparsify local updates and limit client drift.
result FedElasticNet effectively resolves communication cost and client drift problems.