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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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198396594792 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for disparate conditional prediction

The paper studies and mitigates accuracy disparity in regression models.

problem Accuracy disparity between different demographic subgroups in high-stakes domains.
method Error decomposition theorem and distribution alignment algorithm.
result The proposed algorithm effectively mitigates accuracy disparity while maintaining predictive power.

Selective regression allows abstention to improve fairness criteria.

problem Selective regression can exacerbate disparities between subgroups.
method Proposes new fairness criteria and two approaches to mitigate performance disparity.
result Proposed fairness criteria ensures performance improvement for every subgroup with reduced coverage.

Study highlights fairness issues in travel behavior prediction models.

problem Ethical challenges in travel behavior analysis using machine learning.
method Operationalized computational fairness by equality of opportunity; compared DNN and DCM; introduced absolute correlation regularization.
result Both DNN and DCM predict disparities across social groups, with DNN outperforming DCM in prediction disparities.

Conformal prediction sets can lead to unfair outcomes.

problem Disparate impact in decision-making with conformal prediction sets.
method Experiments with human participants to demonstrate disparate impact and propose equalizing set sizes across groups.
result Providing prediction sets that satisfy Equalized Coverage increases disparate impact compared to marginal coverage.

Develops methods for fair classification under linear disparity constraints.

problem Disparate impacts of machine learning algorithms on protected groups.
method Bayes-optimal fair classification methods via pre-, in-, and post-processing.
result Explicit forms of Bayes-optimal fair classifiers under linear disparity measures.

A new CVaR test reduces group performance disparity detection complexity.

problem Detecting performance disparities across multiple sensitive groups in ML models.
method Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) testing to reduce sample complexity.
result Sample complexity reduced exponentially to be at most the square root of the number of groups.

The paper shows how demographic data can lead to biased predictions, proposing 'Affirmative Information' as a solution.

problem Bias in predictions due to demographic data.
method Characterization of error types and conditions leading to disparate impact.
result Demographic variables in data can lead to biased predictions, with higher average outcomes receiving higher false positive rates.

We mathematically compare four competing definitions of group-level nondiscrimination: demographic parity, equalized odds, predictive parity, and calibration. Using the theoretical framework of Friedler et al., we study the properties of each definition under various worldviews, which are assumptions about how, if at a…

2018-08-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Study evaluates when splitting classifiers can improve performance despite disparate treatment.

problem Impact of disparate treatment in classification models.
method Comparison of split classifiers and group-blind classifiers, quantifying performance improvement.
result Proves an equivalent expression for the benefit-of-splitting which can be efficiently computed.

New methods target conditional demographic parity using optimal transport distances.

problem Auditing and enforcing conditional demographic parity (CDP) in models with complex conditioning variables.
method Developed novel measures of conditional demographic disparity (CDD) based on optimal transport distances and regularization-based approaches.
result Validated methods airbit{} and airlp{} effectively target CDP in real-world datasets with continuous model outputs.

This paper tackles fair Bayes-optimal classifiers under predictive parity, proving their limitations and proposing a new algorithm.

problem Ensuring fair Bayes-optimal classifiers under predictive parity, especially when group performance levels vary widely.
method Proving the limitations of fair Bayes-optimal classifiers under predictive parity and proposing a new adaptive thresholding algorithm, FairBayes-DPP.
result Fair Bayes-optimal classifiers under predictive parity may not hold if group performance levels vary widely, leading to within-group unfairness.

A membership inference attack (MIA) against a machine-learning model enables an attacker to determine whether a given data record was part of the model's training data or not. In this paper, we provide an in-depth study of the phenomenon of disparate vulnerability against MIAs: unequal success rate of MIAs against diff…

2019-06-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep chest X-ray classifiers show bias in predicting diagnoses.

problem Bias in deep learning classifiers predicting diagnoses from chest X-rays.
method Trained convolutional neural networks on multiple public datasets to predict 14 diagnostic labels.
result True positive rates vary significantly among different protected attributes, indicating bias.

New research shows machine-assisted decisions can still be unfair even when the algorithm is fair.

problem Ensuring fairness in decisions made with machine-assisted human input.
method Formal model and lab experiment to analyze how machine predictions affect human decisions.
result Excluding information about protected groups from machine predictions can increase disparities.

Study examines impact of fairness penalties on clinical risk prediction models.

problem Widespread health disparities in machine learning-guided clinical decision-making.
method Empirical study across multiple databases, outcomes, and sensitive attributes.
result Penalizing fairness violations nearly universally degrades model performance and fairness metrics.

Study shows how algorithmic prediction affects US housing market, reducing racial wealth disparities.

problem Impact of algorithmic prediction on housing market and racial wealth disparities.
method Natural experiment using digitization of housing records to study entry, allocation, and prices.
result Digitization leads to increased sale prices for minority-owned homes, reducing racial wealth disparities.

This work builds a fair classification algorithm that abstains from making predictions.

problem Building a fair classification algorithm that incorporates human decision-making and avoids disparities.
method Formalizes the problem of risk minimization under fairness and abstention constraints, derives the optimal classifier, and proposes a post-processing algorithm using unlabeled data.
result The proposed algorithm achieves fairness and abstention guarantees independently of the initial classifier, provided sufficient unlabeled data is available.

Manifold matching works to identify embeddings of multiple disparate data spaces into the same low-dimensional space, where joint inference can be pursued. It is an enabling methodology for fusion and inference from multiple and massive disparate data sources. In this paper we focus on a method called Canonical Correla…

2012-09-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Selective classification can worsen accuracy disparities between groups.

problem Selective classification can magnify existing accuracy disparities between various groups.
method Study of margin distribution and distributionally-robust models.
result Selective classification can uniformly improve each group on distributionally-robust models.

EL framework certifies and flags bias in ML models without distributional assumptions.

problem Systematic performance disparities across sensitive subpopulations in ML models.
method Empirical likelihood-based approach for non-parametric fairness auditing.
result EL framework outperforms bootstrap methods in certification and subpopulation discovery.

Develops a new criterion for subgroup fairness in algorithmic decision support.

problem Identifying fair recommendations in algorithms despite group-level differences.
method IJDI criterion and IJDI-Scan approach to detect and mitigate disparities.
result Identifies significant disparities in recommendations across subpopulations.

There is growing interest in applying machine learning methods to Electronic Medical Records (EMR). Across different institutions, however, EMR quality can vary widely. This work investigated the impact of this disparity on the performance of three advanced machine learning algorithms: logistic regression, multilayer p…

2017-03-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Foundation models improve wage gap decomposition by capturing omitted career history factors.

problem Estimating wage disparities using incomplete career history data.
method Fine-tuning foundation models to mitigate omitted variable bias and estimate wage gaps.
result Foundation models can decompose gender wage gaps more accurately than traditional econometric methods.

New method detects bias in AI models that generate data.

problem Detecting bias in AI models that generate data.
method Formalized causal fairness in generative AI, derived new decomposition results, established identification conditions, and introduced efficient estimators.
result Demonstrated the value of new methodology in analyzing bias in large language models.

New framework reduces strategic manipulation cost for minority groups in fair classification.

problem Strategic manipulation disparities in fair classification.
method Constrained optimization framework that constructs classifiers to reduce strategic manipulation cost for minority groups.
result Empirically, the approach reduces strategic manipulation cost for minority groups over multiple real-world datasets.

Following related work in law and policy, two notions of disparity have come to shape the study of fairness in algorithmic decision-making. Algorithms exhibit treatment disparity if they formally treat members of protected subgroups differently; algorithms exhibit impact disparity when outcomes differ across subgroups,…

2017-11-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Study decomposes racial healthcare disparities via shifts in mediator distributions.

problem Racial disparities in healthcare expenditures and their underlying drivers.
method Framework decomposing disparities into mediator distribution shifts and residual components, using MEPS data.
result Substantial disparities persist even when mediators are equalized, suggesting unmeasured or structural factors.

Study shows explanation disparities in machine learning models are influenced by data and model properties.

problem Disparities in post-hoc machine learning explanation methods across race and gender.
method Simulations and experiments on a real-world dataset to assess challenges to explanation disparities.
result Increased covariate shift, concept shift, and omission of covariates increase explanation disparities, especially for neural network models.

Study shows label errors impact model disparity metrics, proposing mitigation methods.

problem Impact of label errors on model disparity metrics.
method Empirical study, characterizing label error effects; proposing estimation and relabeling methods.
result Label errors significantly affect model disparity metrics, particularly for minority groups.

New approach to fairness in machine learning models using conformal prediction.

problem Fairness in machine learning models' downstream decision-making.
method Theoretical derivation and empirical evaluation of label-clustered conformal prediction.
result Label-clustered conformal prediction often provides a favorable balance between utility and substantive fairness.

Proposes a method to quantify and decompose disparity in ML models, separating exempt and non-exempt components.

problem Quantifying disparity in ML models, especially when certain features are exempted due to their critical importance.
method Information-theoretic decomposition into exempt and non-exempt components, satisfying desirable properties.
result Proposes a measure of non-exempt disparity that satisfies all desirable properties, and shows impossibility results for observational measures.

Paper proposes a new method for predicting DER adoption with hierarchical guarantees.

problem Accurately predicting DER adoption in electric grids with uncertainty and spatial disparity.
method Multivariate Hawkes process for modeling DER adoption dynamics and split conformal prediction algorithm for hierarchical validity.
result Empirical evaluation shows superior predictive accuracy and uncertainty calibration compared to existing methods.

Proposes a method to learn fair predictors for multiple subgroups with limited data.

problem Fairness and accuracy issues in learning from multiple subgroups with limited data.
method Formulates a bilevel objective to learn subgroup-specific predictors and a fair predictor that is close to all of them.
result The method effectively controls group sufficiency and generalization error, improving fairness and accuracy.

A transfer learning method builds high-dimensional models using disparate datasets.

problem Building comprehensive prediction models with small sample sizes and limited features.
method Transfer learning approach using external data to build a reduced model and apply calibration equations.
result Proposes a penalized generalized method of moment framework for inference and one-step estimation.