Develops Lagrange-Hamilton geometry for COVID-19 disease dynamics.
problem Modeling the spread of COVID-19 disease.
method Least squares variational method, nonlinear connections, d-torsions, Lagrangian Yang-Mills.
result Jacobi stability of the dynamical system.
DDP models dynamic comorbidity networks from event data.
problem Understanding complex temporal patterns of co-occurring diseases.
method Developed deep diffusion processes (DDP) to model dynamic comorbidity networks.
result DDP enables accurate risk prediction and interpretable disease trajectories.
Disease progression models are instrumental in predicting individual-level health trajectories and understanding disease dynamics. Existing models are capable of providing either accurate predictions of patients prognoses or clinically interpretable representations of disease pathophysiology, but not both. In this pape…
Study forecasts cholera outbreaks in Malawi using dynamic models.
problem Cholera transmission forecasting in developing countries.
method Qualitative dynamics, Monte Carlo Markov Chain, sensitivity analysis, machine learning.
result Enhanced cholera forecasting models improve future trends prediction.
Unified model forecasts epidemics with spatial and temporal dynamics.
problem Limited accuracy in traditional models and lack of interpretability in deep learning models.
method CSTGNN integrates Spatio-Contact SIR model with Graph Neural Networks.
result Effective spatiotemporal epidemic forecasting with interpretability.
In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which med…
Model shows screening for infectious disease is hard but Thompson sampling works well.
problem Optimal screening policy for infectious diseases is hard to find.
method Stochastic-control model with Thompson sampling for optimal performance.
result Thompson sampling provides optimal performance guarantees in screening for infectious diseases.
This study evaluates handwriting features to diagnose Parkinson's disease.
problem Diagnosing Parkinson's disease through handwriting analysis.
method Kinematic, geometrical, and non-linear features were evaluated using K-nearest neighbors, support vector machines, and random forest classifiers.
result Up to 93.1% accuracy in classifying Parkinson's disease and healthy subjects.
For many complex diseases, there is a wide variety of ways in which an individual can manifest the disease. The challenge of personalized medicine is to develop tools that can accurately predict the trajectory of an individual's disease, which can in turn enable clinicians to optimize treatments. We represent an indivi…
Method estimates parameters for disease spread models robustly.
problem Estimating parameters for disease spread models.
method Statistical Learning applied to Approximate Bayesian Computation.
result Qualitative properties of disease evolution can be assessed.
Bayesian meta-learning predicts Alzheimer's disease progression.
problem Predicting individual Alzheimer's disease progression from limited data.
method Bayesian meta-learning approach that dynamically predicts disease score distributions.
result Bayesian meta-learner outperforms single-task models and deterministic meta-learners, especially for long-term predictions.
BoXHED boosts hazard estimation for dynamic health risk scores.
problem Analyzing time-varying health vitals for disease onset prediction.
method Gradient boosting for nonparametric hazard function estimation with time-dependent covariates.
result Novel interaction effects among risk factors identified in cardiovascular disease onset data.
Proposes Ada-Sit method for mortality prediction of rare diseases.
problem Data insufficiency and clinical diversity of rare diseases make mortality prediction hard.
method Initialization-sharing multi-task learning method (Ada-Sit) for fast adaptation to similar tasks.
result Experimental results show the proposed model is effective for mortality prediction of diverse rare diseases.
Modeling disease progression using irregular time intervals in EHRs.
problem Challenges in analyzing temporal data from EHRs.
method Developed a Markovian generative model using EHR data.
result Model accurately recovers underlying disease progression patterns from irregular time intervals.
Enhances disease progression modeling using LLMs for complex brain connectivity.
problem Inaccurate predictions of disease spread due to oversimplified brain connectivity models.
method Uses LLMs to synthesize multi-modal relationships and learn disease trajectories from longitudinal data.
result Superior prediction accuracy and interpretability compared to traditional methods.
New model predicts banana disease risk from climate data.
problem Managing Black Sigatoka disease under climate change.
method Latent Neural ODEs to model infection dynamics.
result Superior generalization performance up to one month ahead.
Prediction of the future trajectory of a disease is an important challenge for personalized medicine and population health management. However, many complex chronic diseases exhibit large degrees of heterogeneity, and furthermore there is not always a single readily available biomarker to quantify disease severity. Eve…
Improves disease progression prediction using auxiliary surrogate labels and health markers.
problem Challenges in predicting disease progression due to unknown true disease states.
method Integrates hidden Markov model with time-varying discriminative classification model.
result Significant improvement in distinguishing LBD from AD using objective markers.
Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is characterized by a cascade of biomarkers becoming abnormal, the pathophysiology of which is very complex and largely unknown. Event-based modeling (EBM) is a data-driven technique to estimate the sequence in which biomarkers for a disease become abnormal based on cross-sectional data. It can…
Simulation-based inference aids in predicting disease dynamics for health policy.
problem Predicting disease dynamics to inform public health interventions.
method Simulation-based inference using machine learning.
result Potential for efficient interpretable Bayesian inference in epidemiological models.
New PG samplers improve inference in coupled state-space models.
problem Bayesian inference from multiple time series with shared parameters.
method Marginalized Particle Gibbs samplers for coupled state-space models.
result Improved parameter inference through shared information.
Novel approach detects early warning indicators in complex systems.
problem Detecting abrupt transitions in complex systems.
method Directed anisotropic diffusion map and latent stochastic dynamical systems.
result Early warning indicators can detect tipping points in state transitions.
We propose a method to predict the subject-specific longitudinal progression of brain structures extracted from baseline MRI, and evaluate its performance on Alzheimer's disease data. The disease progression is modeled as a trajectory on a group of diffeomorphisms in the context of large deformation diffeomorphic metri…
LHM integrates expert ODEs with neural ODEs for disease progression prediction.
problem Predicting disease progression under medications using limited data.
method Integrating expert-designed ODEs with machine-learned Neural ODEs.
result LHM consistently outperforms previous methods, especially in small sample regimes.
RL algorithms with medical integration improve personalized treatment recommendations.
problem Developing effective personalized treatment strategies for chronic diseases.
method Integrating medical knowledge into RL algorithms for DTR.
result Enhanced treatment recommendations with increased confidence.
PHIBP predicts infectious disease outbreaks in sparse data regions.
problem Predicting outbreaks in regions with no historical data.
method Poisson Hierarchical Indian Buffet Process (PHIBP) framework.
result PHIBP provides accurate outbreak predictions and meaningful insights in sparse data settings.
Proposes dynamic borrowing method for historical data in clinical trials.
problem Insufficient statistical power in rare and pediatric disease clinical trials.
method Dynamic borrowing method based on frequentist approach using similarity measures.
result Demonstrates usefulness of dynamic borrowing in reanalyzing clinical trial data.
AdaptiveNet tackles disease progression prediction in rheumatoid arthritis using deep neural networks.
problem Predicting disease progression in rheumatoid arthritis using clinical data.
method AdaptiveNet, a novel recurrent neural network architecture, that handles multiple lists of different events and missing data.
result AdaptiveNet outperforms classical baselines in disease progression prediction.
This paper presents the first deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework to estimate the optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes from observational medical data. This framework is more flexible and adaptive for high dimensional action and state spaces than existing reinforcement learning methods to model real-life complexit…
One primary task of population health analysis is the identification of risk factors that, for some subpopulation, have a significant association with some health condition. Examples include finding lifestyle factors associated with chronic diseases and finding genetic mutations associated with diseases in precision he…
In this work, we consider the problem of predicting the course of a progressive disease, such as cancer or Alzheimer's. Progressive diseases often start with mild symptoms that might precede a diagnosis, and each patient follows their own trajectory. Patient trajectories exhibit wild variability, which can be associate…
Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the availability of large-scale data from social networks and sensor networks offers an…
Market trade-routes can support infectious-disease transmission, impacting biological populations and even disrupting causal trade. Epidemiological models increasingly account for reductions in infectious contact, such as risk-aversion behaviour in response to pathogen outbreaks. However, market dynamics clearly differ…
Here we present DIVE: Data-driven Inference of Vertexwise Evolution. DIVE is an image-based disease progression model with single-vertex resolution, designed to reconstruct long-term patterns of brain pathology from short-term longitudinal data sets. DIVE clusters vertex-wise biomarker measurements on the cortical surf…
Motion Code models time series dynamics with sparse approximations.
problem Challenges in time series classification and forecasting on noisy data.
method Motion Code views time series as stochastic processes, assigning unique signatures to distinct dynamics.
result Motion Code outperforms benchmarks in noisy datasets, including real-world Parkinson's disease tracking.
Model for valuing options on epidemic spread.
problem Valuation of options on epidemic spread during an outbreak.
method Stochastic differential SIR model for epidemic dynamics.
result Parsimonious model for option valuation on epidemic spread.
Patient subtyping based on temporal observations can lead to significantly nuanced subtyping that acknowledges the dynamic characteristics of diseases. Existing methods for subtyping trajectories treat the evolution of clinical observations as a homogeneous process or employ data available at regular intervals. In real…
Accurate prediction of disease trajectories is critical for early identification and timely treatment of patients at risk. Conventional methods in survival analysis are often constrained by strong parametric assumptions and limited in their ability to learn from high-dimensional data, while existing neural network mode…
Paper presents a spatio-temporal Bayesian model for early detection of COVID-19 hotspots.
problem Understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 hotspots to prevent outbreaks.
method Spatio-temporal Bayesian framework with a zero-mean Gaussian process and non-stationary kernel function enhanced by deep neural networks.
result Model demonstrates superior hotspot-detection performance compared to baseline methods.
New test identifies specific biological parameters for personalized CVD detection.
problem Ineffectual pathology tests fail to consider platelet activation and inter-individual variability.
method Stochastic platelet deposition model and approximate Bayesian computation with discriminative summary statistics.
result Inferred parameters help identify specific biological parameters for personalized CVD detection.
Study develops a dynamic risk model for COVID-19 mortality using UK Biobank data.
problem Developing tools to monitor high-risk patients during the COVID-19 pandemic.
method Data-driven random forest classification model using baseline characteristics and symptoms.
result Model predicts COVID-19 mortality with excellent performance (AUC: 0.91), identifying novel predictors.
CASCADE improves uncertainty communication in Parkinson's disease medication management.
problem Uncertainty in clinical decision-making for Parkinson's disease patients.
method CASCADE uses a novel conformal prediction framework to adaptively scale prediction intervals based on classification uncertainty.
result CASCADE produces more efficient and robust prediction intervals for Parkinson's disease patients.
Proposes a neural network for dynamic risk prediction of AMD using longitudinal fundus images.
problem Dynamic risk prediction for progressive eye disorders like AMD.
method tdCoxSNN, a time-dependent Cox survival neural network integrating CNN.
result Demonstrates commendable predictive performance in AMD and PBC datasets.
Bayesian hypergraph inference models disease pathways from EHR data.
problem Modeling rare diseases influenced by shared risk factors.
method Bayesian hypergraph inference framework reframing multi-disease modeling.
result Interpretable disease pathways and well-calibrated uncertainty quantification.
Bayesian model identifies health disparities in disease progression.
problem Health disparities bias disease progression models.
method Interpretable Bayesian model accounting for three disparities.
result Model identifies and corrects for health disparities.
GraphKKE learns fixed-length feature vectors from time-evolving graphs of human microbiome data.
problem Understanding dynamic changes in human microbiome graphs over time.
method Spectral analysis of transfer operators and graph kernels.
result GraphKKE captures temporal changes in human microbiome graphs.
Cardiac motion modeling using LDDMM and shape splines.
problem Difficulties in probing cardiac function due to shape and deformation interactions.
method LDDMM framework, parallel transport, normalization, shape splines.
result Significant differences in model parameters between pathologies, revealing insights into disease dynamics.
Disease phenotyping algorithms process observational clinical data to identify patients with specific diseases. Supervised phenotyping methods require significant quantities of expert-labeled data, while unsupervised methods may learn non-disease phenotypes. To address these limitations, we propose the Semi-Supervised …