We study the problem of explaining a rich class of behavioral properties of deep neural networks. Distinctively, our influence-directed explanations approach this problem by peering inside the network to identify neurons with high influence on a quantity and distribution of interest, using an axiomatically-justified in…
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48 results for “directional influence”
Motivated by the need to audit complex and black box models, there has been extensive research on quantifying how data features influence model predictions. Feature influence can be direct (a direct influence on model outcomes) and indirect (model outcomes are influenced via proxy features). Feature influence can also …
Time dependent cross correlations between different stock returns: A directed network of influencecond-mat.stat-mech
We study the time dependent cross correlations of stock returns, i.e. we measure the correlation as the function of the time shift between pairs of stock return time series using tick-by-tick data. We find a weak but significant effect showing that in many cases the maximum correlation is at nonzero time shift indicati…
New framework detects directional influence in multivariate time series.
problem Detecting directional influence in multivariate time series.
method Order-constrained spectral non-invariance.
result Unique diagnostic functional for directional influence.
A non-parametric method for ranking stock indices according to their mutual causal influences is presented. Under the assumption that indices reflect the underlying economy of a country, such a ranking indicates which countries exert the most economic influence in an examined subset of the global economy. The proposed …
Paper tackles hyper-gradient estimation in decentralized FL over time-varying networks.
problem Excessive communication costs and inability to use robust networks.
method Introduces an optimality condition and uses Push-Sum for averaging model parameters and gradients over time-varying directed networks.
result Derives a hyper-gradient estimator that operates over time-varying directed networks and converges to the true hyper-gradient.
We consider the problem of influence maximization in fixed networks for contagion models in an adversarial setting. The goal is to select an optimal set of nodes to seed the influence process, such that the number of influenced nodes at the conclusion of the campaign is as large as possible. We formulate the problem as…
In this paper, we study the problem of robust influence maximization in the independent cascade model under a hyperparametric assumption. In social networks users influence and are influenced by individuals with similar characteristics and as such, they are associated with some features. A recent surging research direc…
Advances in deep learning for spatio-temporal event modeling.
problem Limitations of traditional parametric models in capturing nonstationary dynamics.
method Integration of deep neural architectures to model conditional intensity function and influence kernels.
result Deep influence kernel approach enhances expressiveness and statistical explainability.
Influence network in Chinese stock marketphysics.soc-ph
In a stock market, the price fluctuations are interactive, that is, one listed company can influence others. In this paper, we seek to study the influence relationships among listed companies by constructing a directed network on the basis of Chinese stock market. This influence network shows distinct topological prope…
A model predicts influential nodes in complex networks by considering indirect interactions.
problem Identifying influential nodes in complex networks using indirect interactions.
method Proposes MOGen, a multi-order generative model that considers all indirect influences up to a maximum distance.
result MOGen consistently outperforms network models and path-based approaches in predicting influential nodes.
We introduce a program aimed to studying problems arising from the theory of complex networks with differential geometric means. We study the propagation of influences on manifolds assuming that at each point only a finite number of propagation velocities are allowed. This leads to the computation of the volume of the …
Improved scalability and interpretability in training data attribution.
problem Identifying which training data drives specific behaviors, especially unintended ones.
method Leveraging interpretable structures within the model to attribute model behavior to semantic directions, not individual test examples.
result Simple probe-based attribution methods are first-order approximations of Concept Influence that achieve comparable performance while being over an order-of-magnitude faster.
Proposes a new estimator for causal mediation with continuous treatments.
problem Estimation of direct and indirect effects with continuous treatments.
method Kernel smoothing approach with cross-fitting for non-parametric estimation.
result Multiply robust and asymptotically normal estimator for continuous treatments.
Time-dependent weighted directed networks of cryptocurrency interaction from high-frequency returnsq-fin.TR
Investigate the evolving structure of cryptocurrency interactions using high-frequency returns.
problem Evolution of cryptocurrency interactions
method Construct directed and weighted networks from Granger causal relationships between cryptocurrency log-returns.
result Normalized returns exhibit heavy-tailed distributions.
Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) model feedback causal relations in interwoven webs of causality and policy variables. FCMs are fuzzy signed directed graphs that allow degrees of causal influence and event occurrence. Such causal models can simulate a wide range of policy scenarios and decision processes. Their directed loo…
Identification of causal direction between a causal-effect pair from observed data has recently attracted much attention. Various methods based on functional causal models have been proposed to solve this problem, by assuming the causal process satisfies some (structural) constraints and showing that the reverse direct…
Enhances multi-modular models by directing information flow between components.
problem Improving predictive performance in multi-modular models with misspecification.
method Introduces Semi-Modular Inference (SMI) with an influence parameter to control information flow between modules.
result SMI allows for tunable and directed information flow, improving prediction in some settings.
A new framework quantifies how model explanations influence each other.
problem Understanding how different model explanations interact and influence each other.
method Introducing the metagame, a conceptual framework for measuring second-order interaction effects of model explanations using Shapley values.
result Meta-attributions provide directional insights into how feature interactions influence model explanations.
Data-trained predictive models see widespread use, but for the most part they are used as black boxes which output a prediction or score. It is therefore hard to acquire a deeper understanding of model behavior, and in particular how different features influence the model prediction. This is important when interpreting…
Using the United Nations COMTRADE database we apply the reduced Google matrix (REGOMAX) algorithm to analyze the multiproduct world trade in years 2004-2016. Our approach allows to determine the trade balance sensitivity of a group of countries to a specific product price increase from a specific exporting country taki…
Framework detects and mitigates data-poisoning attacks in causal effect estimation.
problem Vulnerability to append-only attacks in observational causal analyses.
method Develops a data-poisoning audit for augmented inverse-probability-weighted estimation.
result Proposes a greedy scan to compute exact worst-case movement at every append budget.
The paper explores how symmetries and noise in SGD influence parameter dynamics.
problem Understanding the dynamics of parameter updates in SGD with symmetries.
method Proved the existence of noise equilibria and showed their role in balancing gradient noise.
result Gradient noise creates a systematic motion of parameters to a unique fixed point, called noise equilibria.
We introduce kernel nonparametric tests for Lancaster three-variable interaction and for total independence, using embeddings of signed measures into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The resulting test statistics are straightforward to compute, and are used in powerful interaction tests, which are consistent against…
Analytic realization of Thom-Smale complex for G-manifolds.
problem Realizing Thom-Smale complex for G-manifolds with Lie group action.
method Using G-invariant Witten instanton complex associated with a Morse-Bott function.
result Generalized Thom-Smale complex for G-manifolds including horizontal direction influence.
We investigate the strength and the direction of information transfer in the U.S. stock market between the composite stock price index of stock market and prices of individual stocks using the transfer entropy. Through the directionality of the information transfer, we find that individual stocks are influenced by the …
Semantic segmentation maps can be used as input to models for maneuvering the controls of a car. However, not all labels may be necessary for making the control decision. One would expect that certain labels such as road lanes or sidewalks would be more critical in comparison with labels for vegetation or buildings whi…
Using artificial neural network for the prediction of heat demand has attracted more and more attention. Weather conditions, such as ambient temperature, wind speed and direct solar irradiance, have been identified as key input parameters. In order to further improve the model accuracy, it is of great importance to und…
Using techniques from the theories of convex polytopes, lattice paths, and indirect influences on directed manifolds, we construct continuous analogues for the binomial coefficients and the Catalan numbers. Our approach for constructing these analogues can be applied to a wide variety of combinatorial sequences. As an …
The paper analyzes how noise geometry influences the performance of SGD in machine learning.
problem Understanding how noise geometry affects the performance of stochastic gradient descent.
method Developed two metrics to quantify noise alignment strength and analyzed their effects on loss and subspace projection dynamics.
result Noise geometry can be used to guarantee alignment under certain conditions, aiding SGD's ability to escape from sharp minima.
Retraining stabilizes model influence on data.
problem Performativity in predictive models leads to feedback loops.
method Developed the stable signal principle to address retraining dynamics.
result Repeated risk minimization converges geometrically to stable signal direction.
Transfer Entropy Analysis of the Stock Marketphysics.soc-ph
In terms of transfer entropy, we investigated the strength and the direction of information transfer in the US stock market. Through the directionality of the information transfer, the more influential company between the correlated ones can be found and also the market leading companies are selected. Our entropy analy…
Adversarial observations in probabilistic State-Space Models for robust Reinforcement Learningstat.ML
Adversarial attacks on probabilistic state-space models affect latent state and policy decisions.
problem Robust reinforcement learning under adversarial observability.
method Analyzing adversarial attacks on linear probabilistic state-space models.
result Demonstrating the influence of adversarial observations on latent state and policy decisions.
Summarizing large-scaled directed graphs into small-scale representations is a useful but less studied problem setting. Conventional clustering approaches, which based on "Min-Cut"-style criteria, compress both the vertices and edges of the graph into the communities, that lead to a loss of directed edge information. O…
Paper quantifies epistemic uncertainty in deep learning.
problem Uncertainty in deep learning models, especially epistemic uncertainty.
method Dissects epistemic uncertainty into procedural and data variability, proposes estimation methods.
result Demonstrates how proposed methods overcome computational challenges and provide guidance for modeling and data collection.
CDA framework infers channel influence from aggregated data without user identifiers.
problem Lack of user-level path data due to privacy regulations and platform restrictions.
method CDA integrates PCMCI for causal discovery and Structural Causal Model for effect estimation.
result CDA achieves strong accuracy in estimating channel influence, even under structural uncertainty.
A new measure of causal influence quantifies intrinsic contributions in DAGs.
problem Quantifying intrinsic causal contributions in Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs).
method Recursive decomposition of node contributions, structure-preserving interventions, Shapley symmetrization.
result A measure of intrinsic causal contribution that is invariant to node relabeling.
We study the problem of learning the support of transition matrix between random processes in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model from samples when a subset of the processes are latent. It is well known that ignoring the effect of the latent processes may lead to very different estimates of the influences among observe…
A novel framework infers causal direction from symbolic sequences using pattern entropy.
problem Challenges in discovering causal direction from temporal symbolic data.
method Dictionary Based Pattern Entropy () framework integrating AIT and Shannon Information Theory.
result Minimizing pattern level uncertainty yields a robust framework for causal discovery.
Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have been successfully applied to a range of challenging sequential decision making and control tasks. In this paper, we classify RL into direct and indirect RL according to how they seek the optimal policy of the Markov decision process problem. The former solves the optimal poli…
Denoising autoencoders (DAEs) have proven useful for unsupervised representation learning, but a thorough theoretical understanding is still lacking of how the input noise influences learning. Here we develop theory for how noise influences learning in DAEs. By focusing on linear DAEs, we are able to derive analytic ex…
Learning the influence structure of multiple time series data is of great interest to many disciplines. This paper studies the problem of recovering the causal structure in network of multivariate linear Hawkes processes. In such processes, the occurrence of an event in one process affects the probability of occurrence…
ACI identifies cause-effect relationships and causal influence ranges in dynamical systems.
problem Detecting and quantifying causal influence ranges in complex systems.
method Bayesian data assimilation and assimilative causal inference (ACI) to trace causes back from observed effects.
result Mathematically rigorous formulations of forward and backward causal influence ranges (CIRs) for nonlinear dynamical systems.
Penalized Likelihood Methods for Estimation of Sparse High Dimensional Directed Acyclic Graphsstat.ML
Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are commonly used to represent causal relationships among random variables in graphical models. Applications of these models arise in the study of physical, as well as biological systems, where directed edges between nodes represent the influence of components of the system on each other.…
In the lecture notes, the author will survey the development of conformal geometry on four dimensional manifolds. The topic she chooses is one on which she has been involved in the past twenty or more years: the study of the integral conformal invariants on 4-manifolds and geometric applications. The development was he…
Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) based training of neural networks with a large learning rate or a small batch-size typically ends in well-generalizing, flat regions of the weight space, as indicated by small eigenvalues of the Hessian of the training loss. However, the curvature along the SGD trajectory is poorly und…
In order to investigate the origin of large price fluctuations, we analyze stock price changes of ten frequently traded NASDAQ stocks in the year 2002. Though the influence of the trading frequency on the aggregate return in a certain time interval is important, it cannot alone explain the heavy tailed distribution of …
ULFS-KDPE estimates parameters efficiently without influence functions.
problem Estimating pathwise differentiable parameters in nonparametric models.
method Kernel debiased plug-in estimator based on universal least favorable submodel.
result Semiparametric efficiency achieved without influence function derivation.