New algorithms improve causal direction inference accuracy using parallel ensemble methods.
problem Stability of causal direction inference results from observational data.
method Parallel ensemble frameworks to map and improve inference accuracy.
result Significant improvement in accuracy of causal direction inference.
A study shows that a fine-tuned model's directional accuracy in financial forecasting is largely due to chance, not skill.
problem Misleading directional accuracy in financial forecasting models.
method A reproducible, frozen-data benchmark with paired significance tests to separate skill from base-rate artifact.
result Fine-tuned models do not show significant directional skill over a base rate of 70% in financial forecasting.
Study sets a nontrivial upper limit on return forecasting accuracy.
problem Establishing a practical upper limit for return forecasting accuracy.
method Defined a coin-flip oracle model to theoretically outperform practical models and used its RextOOS2 as an upper bound. result Theoretical upper bound on RextOOS2 is a quadratic function of directional accuracy. Machine learning models predict EUR/USD currency direction with 58.52% accuracy.
problem Predicting the directional movement of EUR/USD in the Foreign Exchange market.
method Comparative analysis of machine learning models, including decorrelated and non-decorrelated feature sets, and meta-estimators.
result 58.52% accuracy for one-day ahead forecasts.
In many real-world applications of Machine Learning it is of paramount importance not only to provide accurate predictions, but also to ensure certain levels of robustness. Adversarial Training is a training procedure aiming at providing models that are robust to worst-case perturbations around predefined points. Unfor…
Study benchmarks classical models over quantum in DeFi yield prediction.
problem Accurate yield and performance forecasting for DeFi liquidity allocation.
method Benchmarked six models on Curve Finance pools' historical data.
result Classical models, especially XGBoost, outperform quantum models.
Paper proposes a method to speed up DNNs by quantizing Winograd/Toom-Cook convolutions.
problem Speeding up convolution computations in DNNs with reduced time consumption and improved accuracy.
method Application of base change technique for quantized Winograd-aware training model.
result 8-bit quantized network achieves nearly the same accuracy as direct quantized convolution with minimal additional operations.
Estimates mean of random vector with near-optimal error in all directions.
problem Estimating the mean of a random vector with direction-dependent accuracy.
method Proves existence of an estimator with near-optimal error in all directions under certain conditions.
result The estimator satisfies the error bound for all directions, with probability 1-δ.
BICompFL tackles bi-directional compression challenges in stochastic FL, reducing communication costs by an order of magnitude.
problem Communication bottleneck in federated learning, especially with stochastic updates.
method Introduces BICompFL, a bi-directional compression approach for stochastic federated learning.
result Significantly reduces communication costs (by an order of magnitude) while maintaining accuracy.
Objective The electrical characteristics of the EEG signals can be used for seizure detection. Statistical independence between different brain regions is measured by functional brain connectivity (FBC). Specific directional effects can't consider by FBC and thus effective brain connectivity (EBC) is used to measure ca…
XGBoost predicts NEPSE Index log returns with low error and high directional accuracy.
problem Forecasting daily log-returns in the NEPSE Index with high accuracy.
method XGBoost machine learning, feature engineering, hyperparameter optimization, walk-forward validation.
result Optimal XGBoost configuration achieves lowest log-return RMSE and MAE.
Develops neural network for directed hypergraphs for node classification.
problem Irregular data structure, particularly directed graphs.
method Directed hypergraph neural network and semi-supervised learning method.
result Novel directed hypergraph neural network achieves highest accuracies on node classification tasks.
We study the accuracy of estimating the covariance and the precision matrix of a D-variate sub-Gaussian distribution along a prescribed subspace or direction using the finite sample covariance. Our results show that the estimation accuracy depends almost exclusively on the components of the distribution that correspo…
Proposes a new neural head for asymmetric representation learning.
problem Asymmetric representation learning in directed relations.
method Role-aware neural convex divergence head.
result Role-aware projections improve directional accuracy over plain ICNN-Bregman heads.
Hybrid quantum-classical model boosts S&P 500 prediction accuracy to 60.14%.
problem Challenges in financial market prediction, especially high noise and non-stationarity.
method Combines quantum sentiment analysis, Decision Transformer, and model selection strategies.
result Achieved 60.14% directional accuracy on S&P 500, a 3.10% improvement.
Bitcoin's price direction is better predicted without additional drivers during high volatility.
problem Predicting Bitcoin's price direction using various determinants.
method Continuous local transfer entropy for feature selection and deep learning classification model.
result Bitcoin's price direction can be better predicted without additional drivers during high volatility.
Deep learning predicts fluid flow in porous media, accelerating simulations by orders of magnitude.
problem Accurate simulation of fluid flow in complex porous media requires excessive computational resources.
method Combining deep learning with direct simulation, using Gated U-Net CNNs trained on datasets of 2D and 3D porous media.
result Deep learning predictions can reach over 90% accuracy for permeability estimation and accelerate simulations by orders of magnitude.
We introduce a new spatial data structure for high dimensional data called the \emph{approximate principal direction tree} (APD tree) that adapts to the intrinsic dimension of the data. Our algorithm ensures vector-quantization accuracy similar to that of computationally-expensive PCA trees with similar time-complexity…
In this paper, we propose the use of a black-box optimization method called deterministic Mesh Adaptive Direct Search (MADS) algorithm with orthogonal directions (Ortho-MADS) for the selection of hyperparameters of Support Vector Machines with a Gaussian kernel. Different from most of the methods in the literature that…
Predicts short-term futures contract direction using neural networks and order flow data.
problem Challenges in predicting short-term directional movement of futures contracts.
method Engineering features from technical analysis, order flow, and order-book data; training a Tabnet neural network.
result Achieved an accuracy of 0.601 in predicting directional change on the Silver Futures Contract.
Local causal structure learning aims to discover and distinguish direct causes (parents) and direct effects (children) of a variable of interest from data. While emerging successes have been made, existing methods need to search a large space to distinguish direct causes from direct effects of a target variable \emph{T…
This paper uses GAN and ERMSE to improve stock price movement prediction accuracy.
problem Predicting stock price movement direction is challenging due to complex, incomplete, and fuzzy information.
method The paper proposes a deep learning model using GAN and ERMSE to forecast stock market trends.
result The GAN model outperformed LSTM in predicting stock price movement direction with a 4.35% improvement.
AGM improves model accuracy through adaptive generation and feature augmentation.
problem Improving model accuracy in machine learning competitions.
method Adaptive Generation Model (AGM) using stacked ensemble learning with horizontal and vertical model expansion and feature augmentation.
result AGM outperforms previous models in 7 data sets.
Evolution strategy (ES) has been shown great promise in many challenging reinforcement learning (RL) tasks, rivaling other state-of-the-art deep RL methods. Yet, there are two limitations in the current ES practice that may hinder its otherwise further capabilities. First, most current methods rely on Monte Carlo type …
Using artificial neural network for the prediction of heat demand has attracted more and more attention. Weather conditions, such as ambient temperature, wind speed and direct solar irradiance, have been identified as key input parameters. In order to further improve the model accuracy, it is of great importance to und…
Alternative to likelihood-based LSNM model selection, residual independence testing is more robust to noise misspecification.
problem Cause-effect inference in location-scale noise models with misspecified noise distributions.
method Residual independence testing as an alternative to likelihood-based model selection.
result Residual independence testing is more robust to noise misspecification.
Paper improves tensor approximation for streaming data.
problem Challenges in finding accurate low-tubal-rank tensor approximations in streaming settings.
method Extends Frequent Directions for efficient low-tubal-rank tensor approximation.
result The new algorithm achieves arbitrarily small approximation error with linear sketch size growth.
Improved ridge regression with Frequent Directions for large-scale tasks.
problem Improving performance of ridge regression for large-scale data.
method Combines Frequent Directions with iterative optimization schemes.
result Achieves high accuracy in estimating bias and variance for sketched ridge regression.
Improved neural network training with ADMM for hardware compatibility.
problem Training scalable and parallelizable neural networks.
method Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) combined with iterative least-square methods.
result Achieved significant accuracy improvements over SGD and Adam.
There were many algorithms to substitute the back-propagation (BP) in the deep neural network (DNN) training. However, they could not become popular because their training accuracy and the computational efficiency were worse than BP. One of them was direct feedback alignment (DFA), but it showed low training performanc…
Study examines how imputation accuracy affects prediction accuracy in regression problems with missing covariates.
problem Missing covariates in regression or classification problems.
method Simulation and empirical analysis using UCI datasets and statistical inference.
result Imputation accuracy impacts prediction accuracy, especially with Machine Learning methods.
The paper finds non-Gaussian directions in high-dimensional data using Wasserstein distance.
problem Locating interesting non-Gaussian features in high-dimensional data.
method Projection pursuit using 2-Wasserstein distance to maximize the difference from Gaussian.
result Statistical guarantees for accurately approximating an unknown low-dimensional non-Gaussian subspace.
Transfer learning have been frequently used to improve deep neural network training through incorporating weights of pre-trained networks as the starting-point of optimization for regularization. While deep transfer learning can usually boost the performance with better accuracy and faster convergence, transferring wei…
Proposes a framework to reconcile policy learning and profit maximization in CATE estimation.
problem Aligning CATE estimation with profit maximization for optimal customer treatment decisions.
method Optimizes a novel objective function that concentrates learning capacity near the decision boundary, ensuring consistency with the original profit function.
result Consistent CATE estimates can be recovered from existing profit-maximization pipelines, allowing firms to navigate the trade-off between accuracy and profit.
RVFL NNs perform well without direct links and output bias for regression.
problem Effect of direct links and output bias on RVFL performance.
method Classical and two new methods for generating hidden nodes' parameters tested.
result Direct links and output bias do not significantly improve RVFL accuracy for typical nonlinear regression problems.
ParPIC clusters directed graphs using random walks and diffusion operators.
problem Challenges in vertex-level clustering for directed graphs due to edge directionality.
method Parametrized Power-Iteration Clustering (ParPIC) based on reversible random walks and diffusion operators.
result ParPIC achieves competitive clustering accuracy with improved scalability compared to spectral and teleportation-based methods.
New approach optimizes decisions based on uncertainty in predictions.
problem Mismatch between prediction accuracy and decision loss in sequential design.
method Directional uncertainty-guided approach to sequential experimental design.
result Directional uncertainty-based design stops earlier and performs better.
Combining various data types predicts S&P 500 stock prices with high accuracy.
problem Predicting S&P 500 stock prices with high accuracy.
method Combined technical, fundamental, and text data with machine learning models like Random Forest and LSTM.
result Achieved 66.18% accuracy in S&P 500 index prediction and 62.09% in individual stock prediction.
Summarizing large-scaled directed graphs into small-scale representations is a useful but less studied problem setting. Conventional clustering approaches, which based on "Min-Cut"-style criteria, compress both the vertices and edges of the graph into the communities, that lead to a loss of directed edge information. O…
New method clusters directed and undirected graphs without losing directional information.
problem Clustering directed graphs due to asymmetry in edge connectivity.
method Generalized Dirichlet Energy (GDE) and generalized spectral clustering (GSC).
result GSC outperforms existing methods in clustering accuracy and robustness.
PIVID infers DAG structures from data using variational inference and permutations.
problem Estimating the structure of Bayesian networks from observational data.
method PIVID uses variational inference and continuous relaxations of discrete distributions to infer a distribution over permutations and DAGs.
result PIVID outperforms deterministic and Bayesian approaches in estimating DAG structures from data.
BiHRNN predicts inflation by leveraging hierarchical structure and bidirectional RNNs.
problem Accurate inflation forecasting is challenging due to dynamic factors and the layered structure of the Consumer Price Index.
method Bi-directional Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Network (BiHRNN) model that uses bidirectional information flow between levels and informative constraints on RNN parameters.
result BiHRNN significantly outperforms traditional RNN models in forecasting accuracy.
This paper investigates the use of multiple directions of stratification as a variance reduction technique for Monte Carlo simulations of path-dependent options driven by Gaussian vectors. The precision of the method depends on the choice of the directions of stratification and the allocation rule within each strata. S…
Novel technique reduces Bayesian network complexity while preserving inference accuracy.
problem Complexity reduction in Bayesian networks for efficient inference.
method Directed convex hull structure and polynomial-time algorithm for identifying minimum localized networks.
result High dimension reduction capability and improved inference efficiency in real networks.
In many real-world reinforcement learning applications, access to the environment is limited to a fixed dataset, instead of direct (online) interaction with the environment. When using this data for either evaluation or training of a new policy, accurate estimates of discounted stationary distribution ratios -- correct…
The paper improves DFA for CNN and RNN training to match BP accuracy.
problem Low accuracy in CNN and RNN training using DFA.
method Divide network into modules, apply DFA within, use sparse backward weight, and incorporate dilated convolution and sparse matrix multiplication.
result Achieves BP-level accuracy in CNN and RNN training.
A new pruning method reduces neural network computation without retraining.
problem Efficiently reduce neural network computation while maintaining accuracy.
method Structured directional pruning via perturbation orthogonal projection.
result Achieves state-of-the-art pruned accuracy without retraining.
Paper tackles imbalanced binary classification by optimizing precision and recall directly.
problem Imbalanced binary classification where standard accuracy is misleading.
method Exact constrained reformulations for precision and recall optimization.
result ERO framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods on multiple datasets.