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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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61122182243 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for design-based inference

This paper explores how representation learning can improve design-based causal inference.

problem Estimating causal effects in design-based studies is challenging due to the need for optimal weights.
method The authors propose an end-to-end estimation procedure that learns a flexible representation to minimize the error in choosing a representation.
result The proposed method is competitive in various causal inference tasks and shows promise for improving design-based weights.

PPI uses predictions and weighting to infer from partially labeled data.

problem Valid inference with partially labeled data.
method Combines model-based predictions with bias correction from labeled data, using Horvitz-Thompson and Hájek corrections.
result IPW-adjusted PPI with estimated propensities performs similarly to known-probability case.

New method uses imperfect LLM annotations for valid statistical inference in social science.

problem Inaccurate large language model annotations in social science research.
method Design-based supervised learning (DSL) combining imperfect LLM surrogates with gold-standard labels.
result DSL provides valid statistical inference with comparable predictive accuracy to existing methods.

Randomization is minimax-optimal for variance in experimental design, even with structure.

problem Designing optimal randomized experiments for variance minimization.
method Analyzing permutation symmetric and non-symmetric sets of outcomes, proposing inference-constrained MSOD.
result Randomization is minimax-optimal for variance, even with structure, and requires uniformity constraints for Fisher's exact test.

The ability to inferring latent psychological traits from human behavior is key to developing personalized human-interacting machine learning systems. Approaches to infer such traits range from surveys to manually-constructed experiments and games. However, these traditional games are limited because they are typically…

2019-12-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a new machine learning-based method for conjoint analysis.

problem Testing the importance of factors in conjoint analysis with interactions.
method Conditional randomization test based on machine learning algorithms.
result Validates the importance of factors in conjoint analysis without model specification.

PPI uses survey sampling methods for inference, bridging ML and statistics.

problem Combining machine learning predictions with small labeled data for valid inference.
method Equivalence of PPI estimators to survey sampling methods.
result PPI estimators are algebraically equivalent to survey sampling methods.

A geometric approach to differential game theory is illustrated. The parallel pursuit is considered as a two-player zero-sum differential game. The optimal strategies of each player is designed based on Riemann-Finsler geometry. Our approach incorporates a closed loop optimal control and the presentation is familiar wi…

2011-01-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Study feature representations induced by dependence between variables.

problem Learning feature representations from dependent random variables.
method Characterized sufficient and necessary conditions for dependence-induced representations, and provided a family of loss functions.
result Features learned from the family of loss functions can be expressed as the composition of a loss-dependent function and the maximal correlation function.

New algorithms for latent class analysis using regularized spectral clustering.

problem Identifying latent classes within populations from categorical data.
method Developed two new algorithms using a regularized Laplacian matrix to estimate latent classes.
result Our algorithms provide consistent latent class analysis under mild conditions and can accurately infer the number of latent classes.

A new method for estimating uncertainties in neural ODEs without numerical integration.

problem Accurate estimation of predictive uncertainties in neural ODEs.
method Distributional Gradient Matching (DGM) algorithm that jointly trains a smoother and a dynamics model.
result Significantly more accurate predictions compared to traditional methods.

Measures policy-violating content prevalence with ML-assisted sampling and LLM labeling.

problem Accurate measurement of content violations that are often rare and costly to label.
method Design-based measurement system using ML-assisted probability sampling and LLM labeling.
result Produces unbiased prevalence estimates with confidence intervals and dashboard drilldowns.

ENTED efficiently decomposes binary and count tensors using nonparametric Gaussian processes.

problem Handling high-dimensional and sparse binary and count data with traditional tensor decompositions.
method ENTED uses nonparametric Gaussian processes and sparse orthogonal variational inference to handle binary and count tensors.
result ENTED outperforms traditional methods in binary and count tensor completion tasks.

This paper proposes a systematic framework to design a classification model that yields a classifier which optimizes a utility function based on prior knowledge. Specifically, as the data size grows, we prove that the produced classifier asymptotically converges to the optimal classifier, an extended version of the Bay…

2018-09-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Boosts A/B test precision using auxiliary data from historical users.

problem Small sample sizes and imprecise estimates in A/B tests.
method Coupling design-based causal estimation with machine-learning models of historical user data.
result Effect estimates using auxiliary data are roughly equivalent to increasing sample size by 20%, or up to 50-80% in some cases.

DiMMSB models directed mixed membership networks, identifying distinct community structures.

problem Modeling directed mixed membership networks with distinct community structures.
method Directed Mixed Membership Stochastic Blockmodel (DiMMSB) with DiSP algorithm.
result DiSP algorithm is asymptotically consistent and outperforms competitors.

Paper introduces a new gradient statistic to improve deep learning convergence.

problem Fluctuation effect of gradient updates between iterations.
method Introduces an unbiased stratified statistic \(\bar{G}_{mst}\) and a new algorithm MSSG.
result MSSG algorithm outperforms other sgd-like algorithms in training deep models.

The paper analyzes the stability of an observer error in a vibrating string system.

problem Stability analysis of observer error in a vibrating string system.
method Abstract Cauchy problem reformulation and application of LaSalle's invariance principle for infinite-dimensional systems.
result The observer error is asymptotically stable.

This paper presents a new approach for filter design based on stochastic distances and tests between distributions. A window is defined around each pixel, overlapping samples are compared and only those which pass a goodness-of-fit test are used to compute the filtered value. The technique is applied to intensity SAR d…

2013-08-29abs ↗pdf ↗

TMLE improves causal effect estimation in missing data scenarios with various positivity violations.

problem Estimating causal effects in studies with missing data and positivity violations.
method Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) with various missing data methods.
result Complete cases with TMLE incorporating an outcome-missingness model exhibit lower bias and greater robustness against positivity violations.

We introduce Bayesian optimization, a technique developed for optimizing time-consuming engineering simulations and for fitting machine learning models on large datasets. Bayesian optimization guides the choice of experiments during materials design and discovery to find good material designs in as few experiments as p…

2015-06-03abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper presents a new approach for filter design based on stochastic distances and tests between distributions. A window is defined around each pixel, samples are compared and only those which pass a goodness-of-fit test are used to compute the filtered value. The technique is applied to intensity Synthetic Apertur…

2012-07-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved spectral clustering for community detection in networks.

problem Community detection in networks.
method Improved spectral clustering (ISC) based on k-means clustering on weighted eigenvectors of a regularized Laplacian matrix.
result ISC yields stable consistent community detection under mild conditions and outperforms classical methods.

Paper introduces new loss functions for Siamese networks using FDA.

problem Training Siamese networks with improved loss functions.
method Proposes Fisher Discriminant Triplet (FDT) and Fisher Discriminant Contrastive (FDC) loss functions based on FDA.
result Shows effectiveness of FDT and FDC on MNIST and histopathology datasets.