Private estimation of many quantiles using differential privacy.
problem Estimating quantiles of a distribution privately.
method Two approaches: 1) Private estimation of empirical quantiles, 2) Uniform density estimation.
result There is a tradeoff between estimating quantiles at specific points and uniformly estimating the quantile function.
SPQR package uses neural networks for flexible quantile regression.
problem Flexible modeling of non-linear relationships in quantile regression.
method Monotonic splines and neural networks for density estimation; model-agnostic covariate effects.
result Allows for non-linear and quantile-specific effects.
In mathematical finance and other applications of stochastic processes, it is frequently the case that the characteristic function may be known but explicit forms for density functions are not available. The simulation of any distribution is greatly facilitated by a knowledge of the quantile function, by which uniforml…
Proposes a neural network for estimating traffic density uncertainty.
problem Lack of uncertainty estimates in deep learning traffic prediction models.
method Quantile Graph Wavenet, a Spatio-Temporal neural network trained to estimate density.
result Produces uncertainty estimates efficiently without sampling.
Paper converts quantiles to cumulative distribution functions to simplify risk measures.
problem Technical assumptions in risk measure calculations.
method Invention of converting integrated quantiles to integrated cumulative distribution functions.
result Avoids the need for probability density function existence.
HS-BQR extends horseshoe prior for Bayesian quantile regression.
problem Estimating quantiles in high-dimensional data with bias and error.
method Horseshoe prior for Bayesian quantile regression with a fast sampling algorithm.
result HS-BQR outperforms other shrinkage priors in coefficient bias and forecast error.
SLS optimizes minimum-volume regions for conditional quantiles, bypassing density estimation.
problem Constructing minimum-volume prediction regions that satisfy conditional coverage.
method Super-level-set regression (SLS) directly optimizes geometric boundaries of conditional level sets.
result SLS optimizes regions directly, capturing complex conditional structures end-to-end.
NQE uses quantile regression for fast SBI with cubic Hermite splines.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference for complex models with limited data.
method Neural Quantile Estimation (NQE) learns quantiles autoregressively and interpolates them using cubic Hermite splines.
result NQE achieves state-of-the-art performance on various benchmark problems.
A new method improves quantile regression for high-dimensional data.
problem Handling heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed data in quantile regression.
method Dynamic prototypes-based probability density estimation with conformalized high-density quantile regression.
result Enhanced prediction regions with valid coverage guarantees and scalability to higher dimensions.
Study on flow-based methods for capturing tail properties in densities.
problem Flow-based methods struggle with capturing non-Gaussian tails.
method Characterize and adapt triangular maps to capture tail properties.
result Flow models lack the ability to capture non-Gaussian tails.
Machine learning model predicts DFT total energy to complete basis set limit.
problem Finding a model to extrapolate DFT calculations to complete basis set limit.
method Quantile-random-forest model trained on binary solids data.
result Random-forest model achieves <25% symmetric MAPE for both DFT codes.
A reliable and accurate forecasting model for crop yields is of crucial importance for efficient decision-making process in the agricultural sector. However, due to weather extremes and uncertainties, most forecasting models for crop yield are not reliable and accurate. For measuring the uncertainty and obtaining furth…
This paper presents a method for efficient density estimation in nonlinear systems.
problem Accurate representation of non-Gaussian distributions in nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging.
method Uses Seminonparametric (SNP) densities with probabilists' Hermite polynomial basis and Monte Carlo approximation for maximum likelihood estimation.
result Demonstrates that the method can accurately capture non-Gaussian density structure and compute quantiles using fewer samples than raw Monte Carlo.
A new model captures financial asset returns' tail behaviors and outperforms GARCH family.
problem Capturing the dynamic tail behaviors of financial asset returns.
method Combines LSTM with a novel parametric quantile function.
result Out-of-sample forecasts of conditional quantiles or VaR outperform GARCH family.
Hypothesis tests in models whose dimension far exceeds the sample size can be formulated much like the classical studentized tests only after the initial bias of estimation is removed successfully. The theory of debiased estimators can be developed in the context of quantile regression models for a fixed quantile value…
Sequential quantile estimation refers to incorporating observations into quantile estimates in an incremental fashion thus furnishing an online estimate of one or more quantiles at any given point in time. Sequential quantile estimation is also known as online quantile estimation. This area is relevant to the analysis …
We report on an empirical study of the main strategies for quantile regression in the context of stochastic computer experiments. To ensure adequate diversity, six metamodels are presented, divided into three categories based on order statistics, functional approaches, and those of Bayesian inspiration. The metamodels …
Unified framework for PDF estimation using MDL-based binning and tensor factorization.
problem Challenges in estimating PDFs for non-uniform, multimodal data.
method MDL-based binning with quantile cuts, tensor factorization (CPD).
result Effective PDF estimation on synthetic and real data.
GBC methods compute expected utility without needing the model's density.
problem Computing expected utility in complex models.
method Density-free generative method using quantile neural estimator.
result Efficient estimation of expected utility from simulated data.
Bayesian method improves quantile estimation and subset selection.
problem Estimating specific percentiles of the response distribution.
method Bayesian decision analysis perspective, optimal point estimates, interpretable uncertainty quantification, scalable subset selection.
result Substantial gains in quantile estimation accuracy, inference, and variable selection over competitors.
Spatio-temporal problems are ubiquitous and of vital importance in many research fields. Despite the potential already demonstrated by deep learning methods in modeling spatio-temporal data, typical approaches tend to focus solely on conditional expectations of the output variables being modeled. In this paper, we prop…
Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can significantly improve decision making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energy sources such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single expected value, probabilistic forecasts provide more information in the form…
A scalable PyTorch framework for non-crossing quantile regression.
problem Non-crossing quantile regression to avoid impossible negative probability densities.
method CJQR-ALM combining Augmented Lagrangian Method, differentiable pinball loss, and L-BFGS optimization.
result Achieves near-zero crossing rates on large datasets within minutes.
Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single expected value, probabilistic forecasts provide more information in …
New analysis improves SGD for robust and quantile regression with sub-quadratic convergence.
problem Improving SGD for robust and quantile regression with sub-quadratic convergence.
method Piecewise Lyapunov function for first-order differentiable functions.
result First geometrical convergence result for sub-quadratic SGD.
Robust clustering methods for multivariate time series data.
problem Clustering multivariate time series data robustly to outliers.
method Quantile-based fuzzy C-means with metric, noise, and trimmed approaches.
result Robust methods outperform alternatives in handling outlying series.
Proposes a new feature preprocessing method using kernel density integral transformation.
problem Feature preprocessing for tabular data in machine learning and statistics.
method Kernel density integral transformation as a drop-in replacement or improved alternative to min-max scaling and quantile transformation.
result Frequently outperforms min-max scaling and quantile transformation with hyperparameter tuning.
Unified framework for various probability distribution distances.
problem Handling diverse probability distribution distances in statistics.
method General framework covering density-based and distribution-function-based divergences.
result Unified approach to classical and modern statistical procedures.
We propose an estimation method for the conditional mode when the conditioning variable is high-dimensional. In the proposed method, we first estimate the conditional density by solving quantile regressions multiple times. We then estimate the conditional mode by finding the maximum of the estimated conditional density…
CurveRL optimizes large model reasoning by reweighting prompts based on their rank and density.
problem Improving large language model reasoning through context reweighting.
method Formulated prompt reweighting as a functional derivative, proposing CurveRL based on quantile coordinate transform.
result CurveRL consistently outperforms existing methods across multiple benchmarks.
Spectral analysis of neighborhood graphs is one of the most widely used techniques for exploratory data analysis, with applications ranging from machine learning to social sciences. In such applications, it is typical to first encode relationships between the data samples using an appropriate similarity function. Popul…
We propose a nonparametric statistical test for goodness-of-fit: given a set of samples, the test determines how likely it is that these were generated from a target density function. The measure of goodness-of-fit is a divergence constructed via Stein's method using functions from a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. O…
Supervised learning is an active research area, with numerous applications in diverse fields such as data analytics, computer vision, speech and audio processing, and image understanding. In most cases, the loss functions used in machine learning assume symmetric noise models, and seek to estimate the unknown function …
Predicts asset return distributions using LSTM and quantile regression.
problem Predicting complex asset return distributions.
method Two-stage approach: quantile prediction using asset-specific features, market data adjustment.
result Significantly outperforms existing models (98% improvement over baseline).
New method narrows prediction intervals for individual treatment effects.
problem Insufficiently conservative prediction intervals for individual treatment effects.
method Conformal inference using conditional density estimates.
result Narrower prediction intervals compared to existing methods.
New algorithms for efficient return distribution approximation in reinforcement learning.
problem Efficiently approximating unknown return distributions in reinforcement learning.
method Introduced novel distributional dynamic programming algorithms for arbitrary probabilistic reward mechanisms.
result Proved error bounds for the algorithms in Wasserstein and Kolmogorov--Smirnov distances.
Bayesian method estimates QTEs from observational data.
problem Estimating nuanced characteristics of counterfactual distributions.
method Bayesian semiparametric conditional distribution regression model with double balancing score.
result Proposed method provides more accurate QTE estimates than other methods.
New method preserves GCM spatial dependencies for better climate projections.
problem Systemic biases in GCM output and loss of spatial/temporal dependencies.
method SPECD approach using Vecchia approximation and semi-parametric quantile regression.
result SPECD preserves key marginal and joint distribution properties of precipitation and temperature.
New scoring rules for multivariate distributions and level sets.
problem Evaluating forecast accuracy for multivariate distributions and level sets.
method Theoretical framework for scoring rules, decomposition of multivariate scoring functions, numerical algorithm for computation.
result New scoring functions for multivariate distributions and level sets, including density and cumulative distribution level sets.
TA-CQR predicts regression intervals with exact coverage, splitting miscoverage between endpoints.
problem Predicting regression intervals with exact coverage under reporting constraints.
method TA-CQR uses tail allocation to parameterize the oracle, estimating the allocation by searching quantile cores and applying nonnegative additive split-conformal calibration.
result TA-CQR achieves exact finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, with theoretical guarantees on calibration and length.
A new method avoids quantile crossing in time series forecasting.
problem Quantile crossing in joint quantile regressions.
method Incremental (Spline) Quantile Functions (I(S)QF) with neural network.
result Improves consistency and accuracy in time series forecasting.
Develops quantile diffusions for risk analysis in continuous time.
problem Stochastic dynamics of quantiles in continuous time.
method Construction of quantile processes through composite maps of distribution and quantile functions.
result Powerful method for interpreting quantile process characteristics in terms of model parameters.
MQF2 forecasts multivariate quantiles globally.
problem Forecasting multi-horizon dependencies with error accumulation.
method Multivariate quantile function using input-convex neural networks.
result MQF2 avoids quantile crossing and captures time dependency. In this paper we propose a model with a Dirichlet process mixture of gamma densities in the bulk part below threshold and a generalized Pareto density in the tail for extreme value estimation. The proposed model is simple and flexible allowing us posterior density estimation and posterior inference for high quantiles. …
This paper considers a new family of variational distributions motivated by Sklar's theorem. This family is based on new copula-like densities on the hypercube with non-uniform marginals which can be sampled efficiently, i.e. with a complexity linear in the dimension of state space. Then, the proposed variational densi…
New neural networks learn distribution functions using quantiles and moments.
problem Approximating functions of distributions in probability spaces.
method Quantile and moment neural networks, mixing quantile and moment features.
result Moment neural network outperforms others for bivariate distributions.
IQ-BART models conditional quantiles using a non-parametric Bayesian approach.
problem Capturing multimodal predictive distributions in time series forecasting.
method Implicit Quantile BART (IQ-BART) augments data with quantile values for non-parametric quantile function estimation.
result IQ-BART provides flexible distribution-free regression with theoretical guarantees.
Rank-statistic method approximates f-divergences without density-ratio estimation.
problem Approximating f-divergences without explicit density-ratio estimation. method Mapping distribution rank histograms to discrete f-divergence and averaging over random projections. result The rank-statistic estimator is a lower bound of the true f-divergence and converges under mild conditions.