We consider nonparametric estimation of the state price density encapsulated in option prices. Unlike usual density estimation problems, we only observe option prices and their corresponding strike prices rather than samples from the state price density. We propose to model the state price density directly with a nonpa…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “density of states”
DoSE improves OOD detection by estimating model probability density.
problem Poor specificity of model likelihoods for OOD detection.
method DoSE uses density of states concept to avoid direct model probability comparison.
result DoSE achieves state-of-the-art performance on OOD detection benchmarks.
The paper defines and studies discrete p-density and compression-radius profiles of lattice knots.
problem Understanding geometric properties of lattice knots.
method Develops a framework for discrete p-density and compression-radius profiles of lattice knots, studying them on length-filtered sets and finite move-graph exploration.
result Density and compression-radius values are not monotone, illustrating distinct optimization problems.
New method estimates density ratio for well-separated distributions using multi-class logistic regression.
problem Challenges in estimating density ratio for well-separated distributions.
method Uses multi-class logistic regression with auxiliary densities to estimate log(p/q).
result Demonstrates superior performance on density ratio estimation, mutual information, and representation learning tasks.
Generative Bayesian Filtering improves inference in complex models without explicit density evaluations.
problem Performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models.
method Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) extends GBC to dynamic settings using deep neural networks for recursive posterior inference. Generative-Gibbs sampler bypasses density evaluations for parameter learning.
result GBF significantly outperforms likelihood-free approaches in accuracy and robustness for intractable state-space models.
Paper proposes a new method for density estimation using tree tensor-network states.
problem Density estimation for complex graphical models with loops.
method Determines tree topology with Chow-Liu algorithm and uses sketching techniques to define tensor-network components.
result Sample complexity guarantees and empirical validation provided.
dtSNE preserves local densities in low-dimensional embeddings.
problem Local density differences are not accurately preserved in tSNE and UMAP.
method dtSNE, which approximately conserves local densities.
result dtSNE provides more accurate local density depictions.
In this paper, we analyzed the physical meaning of scalar curvatures for a generalized Riemannian space. It is developed the Madsen's formulae for pressures and energy-densities with respect to the corresponding energy-momentum tensors. After that, the energy-momentum tensors, pressures, energy-densities and state-para…
This work improves imitation learning and goal-conditioned RL by estimating value densities.
problem Effective solutions for imitation and goal-conditioned reinforcement learning require reliably reaching specified states or demonstrations.
method The approach uses recent advances in density estimation to learn value functions efficiently and without hindsight bias.
result The method achieves state-of-the-art demonstration sample-efficiency in imitation learning and is both efficient and bias-free in goal-conditioned reinforcement learning.
MCD reformulates conditional density estimation into binary classification.
problem Conditional density estimation in statistical and machine learning.
method Marginal Contrastive Discrimination, reformulating into marginal and ratio density functions for binary classification.
result Significantly outperforms existing methods on most density models and regression datasets.
Crowd counting problem aims to count the number of objects within an image or a frame in the videos and is usually solved by estimating the density map generated from the object location annotations. The values in the density map, by nature, take two possible states: zero indicating no object around, a non-zero value i…
A new neural network for efficient density estimation.
problem Efficient density estimation for high-dimensional data.
method Triangular neural network implementation of neural autoregressive flow (NAF).
result Achieves state-of-the-art bits-per-dimension indices on MNIST and CIFAR-10.
Neural Lévy model improves risk and density forecasting for financial returns.
problem Financial returns exhibit heavy tails, volatility clustering, and jumps.
method Proposes a neural Lévy jump-diffusion framework that learns conditional drift, diffusion, jump intensity, and size distribution.
result Demonstrates improved calibration, sharper tail control, and risk reduction.
Roundtrip uses deep generative models for flexible density estimation.
problem Density estimation in statistics and machine learning.
method Roundtrip is a deep generative neural density estimator that uses flexible mappings.
result Roundtrip achieves state-of-the-art performance in density estimation tasks.
We formulate and analyze an inverse problem using derivatives prices to obtain an implied filtering density on volatility's hidden state. Stochastic volatility is the unobserved state in a hidden Markov model (HMM) and can be tracked using Bayesian filtering. However, derivative data can be considered as conditional ex…
Efficiently sparsifies simplicial complexes using local densities of states.
problem Prohibitive computational requirements for dense simplicial complexes.
method Probabilistic sparsification using local densities of states and kernel-ignoring decomposition.
result Approximates the spectrum of the original SC with a sparser surrogate SC.
Learning the electronic density of states in condensed mattercond-mat.mtrl-sci
Machine learning predicts electronic density of states for condensed matter.
problem Predicting the electronic density of states (DOS) in complex condensed matter systems.
method Developed a machine learning framework to predict DOS from density functional theory data, considering geometric configurations of atoms.
result Demonstrated the model's effectiveness in predicting DOS and its components for various silicon configurations.
This paper gives examples of explicit arbitrage-free term structure models with Lévy jumps via state price density approach. By generalizing quadratic Gaussian models, it is found that the probability density function of a Lévy process is a "natural" scale for the process to be the state variable of a market.
Classical probability distributions on sets of sequences can be modeled using quantum states. Here, we do so with a quantum state that is pure and entangled. Because it is entangled, the reduced densities that describe subsystems also carry information about the complementary subsystem. This is in contrast to the class…
Equivariant graph neural networks for fast electron density estimation of molecules, liquids, and solidsphysics.comp-ph
Equivariant graph neural networks predict electron density for molecules, liquids, and solids.
problem Predicting electron density for molecules, liquids, and solids using machine learning.
method Equivariant graph neural networks for predicting electron density at query points.
result The model predicts electron density with accuracy beyond state of the art and significantly faster than traditional DFT methods.
A-DOGE embeds attributed graphs efficiently using density of states.
problem Efficiently represent node-attributed graphs with few numerical features.
method A-DOGE uses density of states to blend topology and attributes, leveraging efficient approximation algorithms.
result A-DOGE achieves competitive performance with modern supervised GNNs while being significantly faster.
NDI learns from expert demonstrations by estimating occupancy measures.
problem Imitation Learning (IL) for complex systems.
method Density estimation of expert's occupancy measure followed by RL.
result NDI achieves state-of-the-art performance on control tasks.
This work uses neural density estimation to analyze laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy data, enabling accurate predictions and uncertainty quantification.
problem Inference of probability densities in high-dimensional spectral data is often intractable.
method Normalizing flows on structured spectral latent spaces for density estimation and uncertainty quantification.
result The approach enables generation of realistic spectral samples and accurate prediction of state vectors with well-calibrated uncertainties.
We show that the visible sector probability density function of the Riemann-Theta Boltzmann machine corresponds to a gaussian mixture model consisting of an infinite number of component multi-variate gaussians. The weights of the mixture are given by a discrete multi-variate gaussian over the hidden state space. This a…
TAKDE optimizes kernel density estimation for real-time dynamic processes.
problem Real-time density estimation in applications like computer vision and signal processing.
method Derives asymptotic mean integrated squared error (AMISE) upper bound for 'sliding window' kernel density estimator and proposes TAKDE as a novel, theoretically optimal estimator.
result TAKDE outperforms other dynamic density estimators in terms of test log-likelihood and runtime.
Quantum method improves neural density estimation in high dimensions.
problem High-dimensional density estimation with poor performance and high computational complexity.
method Adaptive Fourier features based on quantum density matrices, integrated with neural networks.
result Competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods in various datasets.
New machine learning method detects quantum separability in large-scale systems.
problem Deciding quantum separability of large-scale bipartite density matrices.
method Frank-Wolfe-based algorithm for finding nearest separable density matrices and classification of density matrices as separable or entangled.
result The method scales up to thousands of density matrices and achieves high quantum entanglement detection accuracy.
The accurate detection of small deviations in given density matrices is important for quantum information processing. Here we propose a new method based on the concept of data mining. We demonstrate that the proposed method can more accurately detect small erroneous deviations in reconstructed density matrices, which c…
Bayesian state and parameter estimation for nonlinear models using variational methods.
problem Estimating states and parameters for nonlinear state-space models.
method Variational approach to approximate the intractable Bayesian distribution, resulting in an optimisation problem.
result The proposed method efficiently computes Bayesian estimates for nonlinear models, outperforming Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in numerical examples.
TRE improves density-ratio estimation for highly dissimilar densities.
problem Density-ratio estimation fails for significantly different densities.
method Telescoping density-ratio estimation (TRE) framework.
result TRE yields substantial improvements over existing methods for mutual information estimation.
By representing words with probability densities rather than point vectors, probabilistic word embeddings can capture rich and interpretable semantic information and uncertainty. The uncertainty information can be particularly meaningful in capturing entailment relationships -- whereby general words such as "entity" co…
Minimum Density Hyperplanesstat.ML
Associating distinct groups of objects (clusters) with contiguous regions of high probability density (high-density clusters), is central to many statistical and machine learning approaches to the classification of unlabelled data. We propose a novel hyperplane classifier for clustering and semi-supervised classificati…
In nonlinear state-space models, sequential learning about the hidden state can proceed by particle filtering when the density of the observation conditional on the state is available analytically (e.g. Gordon et al., 1993). This condition need not hold in complex environments, such as the incomplete-information equili…
Partition Tree estimates conditional densities for mixed continuous and categorical variables.
problem Estimating conditional densities for mixed data types.
method Tree-based framework modeling conditional distributions as piecewise-constant densities on adaptive partitions, minimizing conditional negative log-likelihood.
result Improved probabilistic prediction compared to CART-style trees and state-of-the-art methods.
EBM life cycle project improves MCMC for image generation, defense, and density modeling.
problem Improving MCMC for diverse EBM applications.
method Three novel MCMC initialization methods for negative samples.
result State-of-the-art performance gains across three applications.
In this note, we consider European options of type depending on several underlying assets. We give a multidimensional version of the result of Breeden and Litzenberger \cite{Breeden} on the relation between derivatives of the call price and the risk-neutral density of the underlying asse…
Computational aspects of the optimal consumption and investment with the partially observed stochastic volatility of the asset prices are considered. The new quantization approach to filtering - density quantization - is introduced which reduces the original infinite dimensional state space of the problem to the finite…
This paper presents a simple but effective density-based outlier detection approach with the local kernel density estimation (KDE). A Relative Density-based Outlier Score (RDOS) is introduced to measure the local outlierness of objects, in which the density distribution at the location of an object is estimated with a …
GCAE uses density estimation to achieve reliable disentanglement in latent space.
problem Disentangled learning representations suffer from reliability issues.
method GCAE uses Gaussian Channel Autoencoder with Dual Total Correlation (DTC) to avoid the curse of dimensionality.
result GCAE achieves highly competitive and reliable disentanglement scores.
The study applies spatial density models to mobile node movements using Möbius distributions.
problem Modeling the steady-state density of mobile nodes on a 2D terrain.
method Used mixture density networks with Möbius distributions to describe node density over a disk.
result Möbius distributions are more suitable for capturing radial changes in node density compared to Gaussian distributions.
New quantum states capture more information, enabling advanced processing tasks.
problem Quantum information processing challenges with limited statistical information.
method Introducing Random-Coefficient Pure States (RCPS) and exploiting their higher-order statistics.
result RCPS provide richer information than density operators, enabling new quantum tasks.
InQMAD detects anomalies in streaming data using quantum measurements and density matrices.
problem Detecting anomalies in streaming data with challenges like conceptual drift and continuous learning.
method Incremental anomaly detection based on random Fourier features and quantum measurements.
result InQMAD outperforms 12 state-of-the-art methods in a systematic evaluation.
Many nonlinear extensions of the Kalman filter, e.g., the extended and the unscented Kalman filter, reduce the state densities to Gaussian densities. This approximation gives sufficient results in many cases. However, this filters only estimate states that are correlated with the observation. Therefore, sequential esti…
Data-Efficient Non-Gaussian Semi-Nonparametric Density Estimation for Nonlinear Dynamical Systemsmath.OC
This paper presents a method for efficient density estimation in nonlinear systems.
problem Accurate representation of non-Gaussian distributions in nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging.
method Uses Seminonparametric (SNP) densities with probabilists' Hermite polynomial basis and Monte Carlo approximation for maximum likelihood estimation.
result Demonstrates that the method can accurately capture non-Gaussian density structure and compute quantiles using fewer samples than raw Monte Carlo.
Quasiprobabilistic Density Ratio Estimation with a Reverse Engineered Classification Loss Functionstat.ML
We develop a new loss function for estimating quasiprobabilistic density ratios.
problem Discontinuous or non-surjective relationships between optimal classifiers and target densities.
method Introduce a convex loss function compatible with both probabilistic and quasiprobabilistic densities.
result Achieve state-of-the-art results in estimating di-Higgs production in particle physics.
New approach improves computational efficiency of Bass Local Volatility model.
problem Eliminate interpolation and improve computational efficiency in local volatility models.
method Combines local quadratic estimation and lognormal mixture tails for state price densities; uses trapezoidal rule for numerical convolutions.
result Proposed method outperforms traditional numerical methods in option pricing and market case studies.
New framework quantifies uncertainty in flexible density-based clustering.
problem Uncertainty quantification in clustering with non-parametric density estimation.
method Martingale posterior distributions and density-based clustering.
result Efficient GPU-compatible inference on clustering structures with uncertainty.
Proposes differentially private normalizing flows for privacy-preserving density estimation.
problem Privacy concerns in density estimation models when individuals are directly associated with the training data.
method Uses normalizing flow models with explicit differential privacy guarantees.
result Substantially outperforms previous state-of-the-art approaches in privacy-preserving density estimation.