Study on synchronization in financial markets with time delays.
problem Understanding market dynamics and synchronization in financial systems with time delays.
method Examined a system of coupled non-linear delay-differential equations, linearized for small delays, and analyzed collective dynamics using bifurcation diagrams and numerical solutions.
result Demonstrated that limit cycles can be maintained in coupled N-asset models with appropriate parameterization, leading to market synchronization.
Paper tackles action delays in reinforcement learning, proposing a delay-aware framework.
problem Action delays degrade reinforcement learning performance in real-world systems.
method Formal definition of delay-aware MDP, transformation into standard MDP with augmented states, delay-aware model-based reinforcement learning framework.
result Proposed framework is more efficient in training and transferable between systems with various delay durations.
Paper tackles delays in multi-agent reinforcement learning, improving performance.
problem Challenges in reinforcement learning due to delays in real-world systems.
method Proposes a novel framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning with delays, using Delay-Aware Markov Games and centralized-decentralized training.
result Demonstrates significant improvement in performance with delay-aware multi-agent reinforcement learning.
Survey of RL methods for control systems with time delays.
problem Time delays in cyber-physical systems degrade RL performance and stability.
method Categorizes and analyzes five major families of RL methods for time delays.
result Identifies key trade-offs and practical guidelines for selecting RL methods.
New algorithm tackles non-stationary delayed feedback in recommender systems.
problem Challenges in learning from delayed feedback in non-stationary environments.
method Developed a UCRL-based algorithm for non-stationary, delayed bandits with intermediate observations.
result Sublinear regret guarantees for the proposed algorithm in non-stationary delayed environments.
Proposes neural delay differential equations for stable system identification with partially observed states.
problem Learning stable models for systems with partial or delayed observations.
method Augments states with history, uses neural delay differential equations, and ensures stability through time delay analysis.
result The approach ensures stability of learned models for partially observed systems.
Neural Laplace Control tackles offline RL for continuous-time delayed systems with irregular observations.
problem Offline reinforcement learning problems involving continuous-time environments with delays and irregular observations.
method Combines a Neural Laplace dynamics model with a model predictive control (MPC) planner.
result Achieves near expert policy performance on continuous-time delayed environments.
BayTiDe discovers time-delayed differential equations from noisy data.
problem Discovering time-delayed differential equations from data with large delays and noise.
method Bayesian inference with a sparsity-promoting prior.
result BayTiDe accurately identifies time-delayed differential equations with accuracy proportional to data resolution.
We consider a system where agents enter in an online fashion and are evaluated based on their attributes or context vectors. There can be practical situations where this context is partially observed, and the unobserved part comes after some delay. We assume that an agent, once left, cannot re-enter the system. Therefo…
The paper analyzes the performance of delay-based reservoir computing using eigenvalue analysis.
problem Quantifying the performance of delay-based reservoir computing.
method Eigenvalue analysis of the dynamical system to predict reservoir computing performance.
result The performance of a reservoir computing system can be predicted by analyzing the small signal response and eigenvalue spectrum.
We propose a model of inter-bank lending and borrowing which takes into account clearing debt obligations. The evolution of log-monetary reserves of N banks is described by coupled diffusions driven by controls with delay in their drifts. Banks are minimizing their finite-horizon objective functions which take into a…
Paper presents a novel method to assess boundedness and stability of nonlinear systems with variable delays.
problem Challenges in assessing boundedness and stability of vector nonlinear systems with variable delays and coefficients.
method Develops a novel framework to evaluate the evolution of solution norms in such systems by constructing scalar counterparts.
result Introduces new criteria for boundedness and stability and estimates the radii of containing balls for history functions.
Improved modeling of chaotic systems using time-delay embeddings and Frenet-Serret frame.
problem Identifying effective coordinate systems for nonlinear dynamical systems.
method Developed a new algorithm to identify more stable and accurate models from less data, leveraging the connection between HAVOK and Frenet-Serret frame.
result The sub- and super-diagonal entries of the linear model correspond to intrinsic curvatures in Frenet-Serret frame.
This paper provides a mathematical framework for time-delay reservoir computing.
problem Lack of rigorous mathematical foundations for reservoir computing properties.
method Control-theoretic framework, formal definitions of separation and fading memory, explicit lower bound derivation.
result Established formal definitions and connections to stability notions for time-delay systems.
Delay-SDE-net models time series with memory and uncertainty, outperforming other models.
problem Accurately modeling time series with memory and uncertainty.
method Stochastic delay differential equations (SDDEs) neural network model with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
result The Delay-SDE-net consistently outperforms other models in predicting time series values and uncertainties.
Measures time-delay embedding for noisy, sparse data.
problem Applying Takens' embedding theorem to real-world, noisy data.
method Formulated a measure-theoretic generalization of the embedding theorem, using optimal transport.
result Reconstructed full state of dynamical systems from time-lagged partial observations robust to noise and sparsity.
Enhances forecasting of complex systems using FKMD.
problem Forecasting high-dimensional dynamical systems with unknown features.
method Featurized Koopman Mode Decomposition (FKMD) using delay embedding and learned Mahalanobis distance.
result Improves prediction accuracy for various complex systems.
In this paper we show that several dynamical systems with time delay can be described as vector fields associated to smooth functions via a bracket of Leibniz structure. Some examples illustrate the theoretical considerations.
The study analyzes how bonus-malus systems and delayed claims settlement affect insurance companies' financial stability.
problem Analyzing the impact of bonus-malus systems and delayed claims settlement on insurance companies' financial stability.
method Examined a discrete-time risk model with time-varying premiums, evaluating two types of claims and settlement delays.
result Delayed settlement of by-claims leads to lower ruin probabilities under specific assumptions.
Stochastic delay differential equations (SDDE's) have been used for financial modeling. In this article, we study a SDDE obtained by the equation of a CIR process, with an additional fixed delay term in drift; in particular, we prove that there exists a unique strong solution (positive and integrable) which we call fix…
Predicting delayed outcomes is an important problem in recommender systems (e.g., if customers will finish reading an ebook). We formalize the problem as an adversarial, delayed online learning problem and consider how a proxy for the delayed outcome (e.g., if customers read a third of the book in 24 hours) can help mi…
New method estimates traffic congestion delays using statistical causality.
problem Accurate estimation of traffic congestion delays during accidents.
method Proposes a novel time delay estimation method using lag-specific transfer entropy (TE) and Markov bootstrap techniques.
result Validated the method's efficacy using simulated and real data.
Time-delayed embeddings avoid self-intersections for high enough delay.
problem Analyzing self-intersections in time-delayed embeddings.
method Study of time-delayed coordinate maps for diffeomorphisms on compact manifolds.
result For high enough delay, time-delayed embeddings avoid self-intersections almost everywhere.
New algorithm optimizes for long-term user satisfaction in delayed reward settings.
problem Optimizing for long-term user satisfaction in delayed reward settings.
method Developed a predictive model of delayed rewards and a bandit algorithm that combines rewards and surrogate outcomes.
result Our algorithm significantly outperforms methods that optimize for short-term proxies or rely solely on delayed rewards.
Deep neural networks solve stochastic control problems with delay.
problem Challenges in stochastic control problems with delay due to path-dependence and high dimensions.
method Employing recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to parameterize policies and optimize objectives.
result RNNs, especially LSTMs, efficiently capture path-dependence and outperform feedforward networks in training and performance.
We present ErasureHead, a new approach for distributed gradient descent (GD) that mitigates system delays by employing approximate gradient coding. Gradient coded distributed GD uses redundancy to exactly recover the gradient at each iteration from a subset of compute nodes. ErasureHead instead uses approximate gradien…
Paper tackles dueling bandits with delayed feedback, revealing preference bias.
problem Real-world dueling bandit applications often face delays in feedback.
method Introduces biased dueling bandit problem with stochastic delayed feedback, presents two algorithms.
result Two algorithms achieve optimal regret bounds for dueling bandit problems with delay.
DASA speeds up SA with delayed agents, achieving N-fold speedup.
problem Speeding up Stochastic Approximation with asynchronous delays.
method DASA: Delay-Adaptive Multi-Agent Stochastic Approximation algorithm.
result First algorithm with convergence rate dependent on mixing time and average delay.
India runs the fourth largest railway transport network size carrying over 8 billion passengers per year. However, the travel experience of passengers is frequently marked by delays, i.e., late arrival of trains at stations, causing inconvenience. In a first, we study the systemic delays in train arrivals using n-order…
Stochastic linear bandits are a natural and well-studied model for structured exploration/exploitation problems and are widely used in applications such as online marketing and recommendation. One of the main challenges faced by practitioners hoping to apply existing algorithms is that usually the feedback is randomly …
In this paper, we propose a design of a model-free networked controller for a nonlinear plant whose mathematical model is unknown. In a networked control system, the controller and plant are located away from each other and exchange data over a network, which causes network delays that may fluctuate randomly due to net…
Novel algorithm for decentralized optimization in time-varying networks with delays.
problem Decentralized optimization in networks with communication delays.
method DT-GO algorithm, applicable to general directed graphs, converges to same complexity as centralized SGD.
result Algorithm DT-GO achieves convergence rates for convex and non-convex objectives, similar to centralized SGD.
New RL algorithm handles delayed feedback with posterior sampling.
problem Challenges of delayed feedback in reinforcement learning with linear function approximation.
method Posterior sampling with delayed feedback for value-based RL.
result Achieves optimal regret guarantee with improved computational efficiency.
TreeDOX predicts chaotic systems without hyperparameter tuning.
problem Forecasting chaotic systems requires hyperparameter tuning, limiting adoption.
method TreeDOX uses time delay overembedding and Extra-Trees Regressors.
result TreeDOX achieves state-of-the-art performance on chaotic systems.
Time-continuous dimensional descriptions of emotions (e.g., arousal, valence) allow researchers to characterize short-time changes and to capture long-term trends in emotion expression. However, continuous emotion labels are generally not synchronized with the input speech signal due to delays caused by reaction-time, …
The paper introduces a new short rate model with memory components.
problem Modeling short rate dynamics with past values.
method Integrates memory (delay) components into Merton or Vasiček models.
result Analytical solutions for bond prices and forward rates.
We develop and analyze an asynchronous algorithm for distributed convex optimization when the objective writes a sum of smooth functions, local to each worker, and a non-smooth function. Unlike many existing methods, our distributed algorithm is adjustable to various levels of communication cost, delays, machines compu…
We analyze the convergence of gradient-based optimization algorithms that base their updates on delayed stochastic gradient information. The main application of our results is to the development of gradient-based distributed optimization algorithms where a master node performs parameter updates while worker nodes compu…
In the present scenario of domestic flights in USA, there have been numerous instances of flight delays and cancellations. In the United States, the American Airlines, Inc. have been one of the most entrusted and the world's largest airline in terms of number of destinations served. But when it comes to domestic flight…
The project intends to model the stability of power system with a deep learning algorithm to the problem, aiming to delay the removal of the fault. The so-called "fail-delay cut-off" refers to the occurrence of N-1 backup protection action on the backbone network of the system, resulting in longer time for the removal …
New algorithm optimizes long-term user satisfaction in recommendation systems.
problem Optimizing long-term user satisfaction in recommendation systems with delayed rewards.
method Developed a predictive model of delayed rewards and a bandit algorithm that balances exploration and exploitation.
result Our approach results in substantially better performance compared to short-term or delayed optimization.
Simulates patient pathways to detect delayed rare disease diagnoses.
problem Delayed rare disease diagnoses in France, causing health system and patient harm.
method Probabilistic modelling of patient pathways to create an alert system.
result Alert system detects and refers wandering patients to CRMRs.
Compact models learn photocurrent dynamics from radiation-induced excess carrier density.
problem Accurate but computationally expensive physics-based photocurrent models for semiconductor devices.
method Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) for learning reduced order models from internal state data.
result Physics-aware, compact delayed photocurrent models accurately approximate internal excess carrier dynamics.
IntDC framework uncovers causal relationships from non-interventional data.
problem Detecting causal relationships in non-interventional complex systems.
method Interventional Embedding Entropy (IEE) for causal strength measurement.
result IEE accurately finds causal edges and quantifies causal strength robustly.
New algorithm optimizes noisy function evaluations with delayed feedback.
problem Optimizing unknown functions from noisy, delayed feedback.
method Kernel bandit problem with stochastically delayed feedback.
result Proposes an algorithm with improved regret bound for non-smooth kernels.
Improves asynchronous federated learning with queuing dynamics.
problem Asynchronous federated learning with varying node computational speeds.
method Proposes a non-uniform sampling scheme for the central server.
result Significant improvement over current algorithms on image classification.
HS-FNO models non-Markovian PDEs by learning history and future states.
problem Non-Markovian dynamics where future states depend on past history.
method History-Space Fourier Neural Operator (HS-FNO) for delay and memory-driven PDEs.
result HS-FNO achieves lowest aggregate errors across various PDE families.
Develops a stochastic approach to financial market delays.
problem Modeling delays in financial markets with multiple assets.
method Introduces a general stochastic framework for information and order execution delays.
result Delayed markets maintain fundamental asset pricing theorems and no asymptotic free lunch condition.