Model assesses risks in CCP networks, identifying wrong-way risks.
problem Credit and liquidity risks in CCP networks.
method Developed a model to capture features of gap risk, feedback, and different participant risks.
result Identified wrong-way risks between clearing member defaults and market turbulence.
Bilateral CVA as currently implement has the counterintuitive effect of profiting from one's own widening CDS spreads, i.e. increased risk of default, in practice. The unified picture of CVA and liquidity introduced by Morini & Prampolini 2010 has contributed to understanding this. However, there are two significant om…
This paper develops an XVA (costs) analysis of centrally cleared trading, parallel to the one that has been developed in the last years for bilateral transactions. We introduce a dynamic framework that incorporates the sequence of cash-flows involved in the waterfall of resources of a clearing house. The total cost of …
Unified valuation theory for credit risk, defaults, and funding costs.
problem Valuation under credit risk, defaults, and funding costs.
method Unified valuation theory expanding replication approach to incorporate credit risk, defaults, and funding costs.
result Clarifies the relationship between the adjusted cash flows approach and the replication approach.
A clearing member of a Central Counterparty (CCP) is exposed to losses on their default fund and initial margin contributions. Such losses can be incurred whenever the CCP has insufficient funds to unwind the portfolio of a defaulting clearing member. This does not necessarily require the default of the CCP itself. In …
Network-based stress test assesses central counterparty resilience.
problem Quantifying resilience of central counterparties during financial distress.
method Network analysis of clearing members, simulating financial distress propagation.
result Default funds may not be adequate for systemic events, requiring conservative amounts.
In this work we study the price-hedge issue for general defaultable contracts characterized by the presence of a contingent CSA of switching type. This is a contingent risk mitigation mechanism that allow the counterparties of a defaultable contract to switch from zero to full/perfect collateralization and switch back …
Analyzes valuation of derivative claims with asymmetric funding costs and WWR.
problem Valuing and hedging derivative claims with bilateral cash flows in asymmetric funding and risk environments.
method Characterizes pre-default claim value as solution to a non-linear Cauchy problem, applies stochastic representation under linear funding policy.
result Derivative claim value can be represented as a portfolio of European options and admits an analytical formula involving elementary functions and Gaussian integrals.
Dynamic model assesses CCP risk with time-consistent risk measures.
problem Assessing central counterparty risk in dynamic markets.
method Markovian structure model of joint credit migrations; time-consistent dynamic risk measures.
result Proposes a method for more accurate initial margin and default fund allocation.
We show how the cost of funding the collateral in a particular set up can be equal to the Bilateral Valuation Adjustment with the "funded" probability of default, leading to the definition of a Funded Bilateral Valuation Adjustment (FBVA). That set up can also be viewed by an investor as an effective way to restructure…
USS fund risk assessment shows low default chance but high overfunding.
problem Risk assessment of Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS) fund.
method Estimates risk of default and overfunding using a cautious model.
result Fund has less than 7% chance of defaulting but overfunding by at least £100bn.
Counterparty Risk FAQ: Credit VaR, PFE, CVA, DVA, Closeout, Netting, Collateral, Re-hypothecation, WWR, Basel, Funding, CCDS and Margin Lendingq-fin.PR We present a dialogue on Counterparty Credit Risk touching on Credit Value at Risk (Credit VaR), Potential Future Exposure (PFE), Expected Exposure (EE), Expected Positive Exposure (EPE), Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA), Debit Valuation Adjustment (DVA), DVA Hedging, Closeout conventions, Netting clauses, Collateral …
This paper studies financial network default ambiguity and solution selection.
problem Determining the best solution to financial network default ambiguity.
method Analysis of solution space properties and NP-hardness of approximation.
result Hardness of finding optimal solutions for various objective functions.
Extends XVA valuation under stochastic volatility, characterizing value processes via mild solutions.
problem Valuation of contingent claims in presence of default, collateral, and funding under stochastic volatility.
method Characterizes pre-default value processes via mild solutions to parabolic semilinear PDEs under stochastic volatility.
result Characterizes pre-default value processes via mild solutions to parabolic semilinear PDEs under stochastic volatility, providing sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness.
The paper proposes a dynamic risk measure approach for evaluating defined-contribution pension funds.
problem Periodic evaluation of defined-contribution pension funds to manage risk and improve projections.
method Dynamic risk measure criterion, model-free reinforcement learning, Lee-Carter mortality model.
result Periodic evaluations lead to more risk-averse strategies, while mortality improvements encourage risk-seeking behaviors.
New method for valuing and hedging credit risk when defaults cannot be hedged.
problem Valuation and hedging of counterparty credit risk when there's no protection available.
method Local risk-minimization approach via BSDE (Backward Stochastic Differential Equation)
result Optimal strategy computed for valuing and hedging credit risk.
The paper explains the fair basis in bond-CDS trading during financial crises.
problem Large basis trading losses during financial crises are not explained by reduced form models.
method Dynamic spread model with bond repo financing, economic capital approach.
result Unhedged and unhedgeable residual jump to default risk exists, affecting fair basis level.
Adaptive strategies reduce pension fund costs and risks.
problem Managing longevity and volatility risks in pension funds.
method Modular simulation framework with customizable metrics.
result Substantial reduction in pension plan costs and default risk.
This article presents FVA and CVA of a bilateral derivative in a coherent manner, based on recent developments in fair value accounting and ISDA standards. We argue that a derivative liability, after primary risk factors being hedged, resembles in economics an issued variable funding note, and should be priced at the m…
Wrong-way risk in counterparty and funding exposures is most dramatic in the situations of systemic crises and tails events. A consistent model of wrong-way risk (WWR) is developed here with the probability-weighted addition of tail events to the calculation of credit valuation and funding valuation adjustments (CVA an…
The study highlights the importance of Wrong-Way Risk in FVA calculations during financial market turmoil.
problem The relevance of Wrong-Way Risk in Funding Valuation Adjustments (FVA) during financial market uncertainty.
method The study examines the impact of various modelling choices, including default times and stochastic/deterministic funding spreads, on FVA calculations.
result WWR effects are non-negligible in FVA modelling from a risk-management perspective.
Collectivized funds need less initial capital to match individual funds, improving pension adequacy.
problem Determining optimal fund management for diverse investor needs.
method Modeling collectivized investment funds with realistic parameters and demonstrating their superiority over individual funds.
result Collectivized funds require less initial capital to match individual funds, enhancing pension adequacy.
Maximizing withdrawal success in a pooled annuity fund with multiple annuitants.
problem Optimizing withdrawal success in a pooled annuity fund with homogeneous annuitants.
method Maximizing the probability of completing withdrawals until death over portfolio weight functions.
result Increasing the number of annuitants can significantly increase the maximum probability of withdrawal success.
Shorting IG ETFs can hedge bond portfolios during market drawdowns effectively.
problem Managing downside risk in bond portfolios during market crises.
method Constructing three signals (Momentum, Liquidity, Credit) to dynamically hedge short IG positions.
result Dynamic hedge removes when predicted hedged return mean reverts, achieving higher returns and Sortino ratios.
LIBOR-linked borrowing exposes venture banks to systemic risk without improving profitability.
problem LIBOR-linked borrowing exposes venture banks to systemic risk without improving profitability.
method A scenario where venture banks use interbank borrowed funds for investment loans with minimal default insurance.
result Venture banks can survive and have excellent returns with minimal risk, but face rapid failure if returns fall or interest rates rise.
Proposes a mixed pension system combining PAYG and funded contributions to address sustainability.
problem Sustainability of public pension systems due to declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy.
method Combines a classical PAYG scheme with a funded investment scheme to ensure financial sustainability.
result Individuals contribute to a funded part, making them active participants in addressing demographic risks.
The paper tackles uncertainties in corporate default risk predictions.
problem Evaluating uncertainties associated with corporate default risk predictions.
method Developed a procedure to quantify uncertainties by disentangling multiple contributing sources.
result Substantial uncertainties exist in default risk assessments.
Examines climate financing for renewable energy projects using structured funds.
problem Valuation of structured climate financing on diverse renewable energy asset pools.
method Bottom-up Gaussian copula framework with LH++ model for diversification analysis.
result Shows how the mix of indirect and direct RE investments affects the sensitivity of the senior tranche.
Study examines Indian equity mutual funds' investment style and risk-shifting.
problem Understanding how Indian equity mutual funds' investment styles affect their returns.
method Estimating size and style beta coefficients, identifying breakpoints, analyzing investment styles, and assessing risk-shifting intensity.
result Funds can enhance returns by shifting to high-return styles like Small Value and Small Blend.
The paper analyzes fairness of compensation-based risk-sharing schemes for fund payouts.
problem Fair allocation of payouts in an endowment contingency fund.
method Analyzes two types of administrators and general non-negative loss distributions.
result General conditions for actuarial fairness are provided.
The credit crisis and the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis have highlighted the native form of credit risk, namely the counterparty risk. The related Credit Valuation Adjustment, (CVA), Debt Valuation Adjustment (DVA), Liquidity Valuation Adjustment (LVA) and Replacement Cost (RC) issues, jointly referred to in t…
Study on pooled annuity funds and how initial savings affect income stability.
problem Analyzing the stability of income payments in pooled annuity funds.
method Examining the influence of initial savings on income fluctuations and developing a criterion for pooling funds.
result Identification of a term, the 'implied number of homogeneous members', linking initial savings to income fluctuations.
Based on an empirical analysis of the network structure of the Austrian inter-bank market, we study the flow of funds through the banking network following exogenous shocks to the system. These shocks are implemented by stochastic changes in variables like interest rates, exchange rates, etc. We demonstrate that the sy…
The paper uses CPI growth rates to improve LGD predictions for CRE loans.
problem Challenges in forecasting LGD for CRE loans due to extended resolution times and restricted data.
method Combines internal and public data, including CPI growth rates, to forecast CRE LGD.
result Incorporating CPI at the time of default improves LGD prediction accuracy.
This essay quantifies convexities in incomplete markets using entropy, adjusting prices for risk and incompleteness.
problem Quantifying convexities in incomplete markets and adjusting prices for risk and incompleteness.
method Using entropy, the essay quantifies convexities and adjusts prices for risk and incompleteness in incomplete markets.
result A new price principle derived from a log-martingale condition is introduced, matching risk aversion and adjusting for market incompleteness and default risk.
Quant hedge funds boost inequality by trading equities.
problem Global wealth inequality
method Market-neutral quantitative trading strategy
result Quant hedge funds can increase inequality while making profits
New model forecasts pension fund contributors and retirees.
problem Forecasting and estimating future populations and financial flows.
method 3-dimensional Markov chain probabilistic model.
result Increased reliability and deeper demographic analysis.
Study connects bank default models using dynamic contagion.
problem Understanding default contagion in heterogeneous interbank systems.
method Proposes a dynamic default contagion model with endogenous early defaults for a finite set of banks, reformulating as a stochastic particle system.
result Existence of clearing systems and continuity of the system response for the mean-field problem.
Efficiently models Wrong-Way Risk in FVA without full Monte Carlo.
problem Assessing Wrong-Way Risk in Funding Valuation Adjustments (FVA) without extensive simulations.
method Splitting exposure into independent and WWR-driven parts; approximating WWR-driven part using Gaussian stochastic factor.
result An efficient and robust method to include WWR in FVA modelling.
Analyzes incentives and strategies in financial networks.
problem Deciding default status and liabilities in a network of banks.
method Refined model of financial systems with priority assignments.
result Actions by banks can influence their own outcomes.
Two new methods score stress test scenarios for risk managers.
problem Comparing and evaluating stress test scenarios for risk managers.
method Inspired by Archer-Mouy-Selmi, two methodologies for scoring stress test scenarios.
result New methods can compare and evaluate stress test scenarios.
Repo pricing model explains haircut and spread dynamics.
problem Characterize and explain repo pricing measures.
method Develops a haircut model to identify economic capital as the main driver of repo pricing.
result Empirically reproduces repo haircut hikes and explains differences in haircut and spread.
Model estimates LIBOR rates and finds COVID-19 spread spike due to credit risk.
problem Estimating LIBOR rates and understanding the factors affecting them.
method Developed a joint model for various LIBOR-related rates and used it to decompose spreads.
result Credit risk mainly caused the spike in LIBOR-OIS spread during the COVID-19 onset, with equal contributions from credit and funding-liquidity risks on average.
Machine learning outperforms crowd investors in predicting loan defaults and investment returns.
problem Determining if machine learning can outperform human decision-making in crowd lending.
method Using data from Prosper.com, a sophisticated ML algorithm was trained to predict loan defaults and investment returns.
result The ML algorithm outperforms crowd investors in predicting loan defaults and investment returns, especially for risky loans.
The present work studies and analyzes general defaultable OTC contract in presence of a contingent CSA, which is a theoretical counterparty risk mitigation mechanism of switching type that allows the counterparty of a general OTC contract to switch from zero to full/perfect collateralization and switch back whenever sh…
Temporal coarse-graining of latent default paths explains effective correlation in corporate defaults.
problem Understanding effective default correlation in corporate defaults.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths, applied to corporate default-count data.
result Temporal coarse-graining provides a scale-consistent baseline that improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
Paper introduces non-linear discounting models for default compensation and climate valuation.
problem Valuation of non-replicable value and damage under default risk.
method Develops two models: one for risk-neutralising discounting and another for survival probability dependent discounting.
result Non-decaying discount factors (negative discount rates) are possible under certain scenarios.
Complex contagion model explains financial fire sales through continuous asset prices.
problem Modeling financial fire sales with a continuum of asset prices.
method Developed a threshold model of continuous-state cascades using real values for asset prices.
result Discretization approach accurately replicates the distribution of defaulted banks and asset prices.