Simple mechanism resolves economic puzzles.
problem High cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, wage vs. capital gains, equity premium persistence.
method Simple mechanism noted.
result Simple mechanism partially resolves economic puzzles.
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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
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48 results for “cyclically adjusted P/E ratio”
Computes constants for cyclic covers of translation surfaces.
problem Asymptotic number of cylinders on translation surfaces.
method Topological invariants and number-theoretic properties of degree.
result Ratio of Siegel-Veech constants is independent of degree.
A Causally Formulated Hazard Ratio Estimation through Backdoor Adjustment on Structural Causal Modelstat.ME
Novel approach to compute hazard ratios from observational studies using SCMs and backdoor adjustment.
problem Identifying causal relationships from observational data using hazard ratios.
method Backdoor adjustment through structural causal models (SCMs) and do-calculus.
result Novel approach for computing hazard ratios from observational studies.
The study evaluates forecast risk-adjusted performance using various metrics.
problem Evaluating forecast reliability beyond accuracy.
method Risk-adjusted performance measures (Sharpe, Sortino, Omega ratios) and Edge Ratio.
result Machine learning models often offer attractive risk profiles but not necessarily higher reliability.
Paper introduces Market-adaptive Ratio for better portfolio management.
problem Traditional risk-adjusted ratios fail to account for bull and bear markets.
method Integrates parameter and uses reinforcement learning to adjust portfolio allocations dynamically.
result Market-adaptive Ratio outperforms traditional ratios in bull and bear markets.
When the in-sample Sharpe ratio is obtained by optimizing over a k-dimensional parameter space, it is a biased estimator for what can be expected on unseen data (out-of-sample). We derive (1) an unbiased estimator adjusting for both sources of bias: noise fit and estimation error. We then show (2) how to use the adjust…
We present a simple dynamical model of stock index returns which is grounded on the ability of the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earning (CAPE) valuation ratio devised by Robert Shiller to predict long-horizon performances of the market. More precisely, we discuss a discrete time dynamics in which the return growth depends…
The paper analyzes Nordic stock markets' correlation structures and regime shifts.
problem Understanding and exploiting regime shifts in Nordic stock markets.
method Examined two decades of daily data for OMXS30, OMXC20, and OMXH25 universes; proposed an adaptive portfolio allocation framework.
result Documented pronounced regime dependence in rolling correlation matrices; proposed an adaptive portfolio allocation framework.
New stock valuation measure improves retirement planning predictions.
problem Improving accuracy of stock market predictions for retirement planning.
method Generalized CAPE model with detrending, treating earnings growth as exogenous.
result Long-run total returns equal earnings growth plus 4.6%.
This paper improves bond market making by adjusting hit-ratios for client flow quality.
problem Economic misleading of raw hit-ratios in corporate bond market making.
method Stochastic-control framework with residual-quality-adjusted hit-ratio.
result Optimal quotes decompose into various components, improving service/economics frontier.
Great year, bad Sharpe? A note on the joint distribution of performance and risk-adjusted returnq-fin.ST
Investments with best performance are not associated with best Sharpe ratios.
problem The relationship between performance and risk-adjusted return (Sharpe ratio) is counterintuitive for heavy-tailed distributions.
method Synthetic and real data analysis of returns distributions.
result The best-performing investments are not the best in terms of Sharpe ratio, and vice versa.
The study improves stock market valuation using volatility and earnings data.
problem Improving stock market valuation metrics.
method Time series model for asset returns, multivariate kernel density estimation, linear regression.
result The valuation measure is an improvement over Shiller's P/E ratio.
Proposes AAA for efficient association estimation with confounders.
problem Summarizing log odds ratio as a function of confounders.
method Develops efficient DML estimators for AAA.
result Demonstrates practicality and effectiveness of AAA estimators.
In this article we discuss the distribution of asset price movements by the market potential function. From the principle of free energy minimization we analyze two different kinds of market potentials. We obtain a U-shaped potential when market reversion (i.e. contrarian investors) is dominant. On the other hand, if t…
Prognostic scores improve logistic regression analysis in RCTs with binary outcomes.
problem Non-collapsibility in logistic regression analysis of RCTs with binary endpoints.
method Prognostic score adjustment using AI predictions to address non-collapsibility.
result Prognostic score adjustment increases power or reduces sample size for estimating conditional odds ratios.
Investigates how NSFR affects FVA and formulates FVA as a shortest path problem.
problem Relationship between FVA and NSFR, and optimal funding strategy.
method Formulates FVA as a shortest path problem, calculates optimal funding decisions.
result Provides optimal funding decisions for minimum funding cost.
Adjusted Closing Pricesq-fin.PM
Historical returns depend on historical closing prices and distributions. We describe how to compute adjusted closing prices from closing price/distribution data with an emphasis on spreadsheet implementation. Then the growth of a security from one date to another (1 + total return) is just the ratio of the correspondi…
Proposes an automatic cyclical scheduling for gradient-based discrete sampling.
problem Gradient-based sampling in high-dimensional models can get stuck in local modes.
method Cyclical step size and balancing schedules with automatic hyperparameter tuning.
result Proves non-asymptotic convergence and inference guarantees for general discrete distributions.
Turnover-adjusted IR is always lower than classic IR, suggesting managers can improve performance by limiting turnover.
problem The classic relationship between IR and its determinants does not account for turnover costs.
method Mathematical derivations and simulations considering volatility of information coefficient and portfolio turnover.
result Turnover-adjusted IR is lower and managers can improve performance by limiting turnover.
Optimal reinsurance balances risk over surplus ratios for risk-adjusted surplus.
problem Balancing risk over surplus ratios in reinsurance contracts.
method Analyzes reinsurance contracts using Value at Risk and expected surplus ratio, derives simplifications for large portfolios, and considers approximations of the optimum portfolio.
result One or two-layer contracts are optimal for both risk-adjusted surplus and risk over expected surplus ratio, but no second layer for large portfolios or below certain reinsurance prices.
New method dynamically adjusts UTD ratio to balance under- and overfitting in RL.
problem Balancing under- and overfitting in world model learning for RL.
method Dynamic adjustment of UTD ratio based on validation performance on a small subset of experience data.
result Our method improves balance between under- and overfitting compared to default settings and competitive with extensive hyperparameter search.
Deep Learning for Financial Time Series: A Large-Scale Benchmark of Risk-Adjusted Performanceq-fin.TR
Benchmarking deep learning models for financial time series, focusing on risk-adjusted performance.
problem Optimizing risk-adjusted performance in financial time series prediction.
method Evaluation of various deep learning architectures including linear models, RNNs, transformers, state space models, and sequence representation approaches.
result Hybrid models like VSN with LSTM and xLSTM achieve the highest overall Sharpe ratio and superior downside adjusted characteristics.
The article uses dynamic factor allocation to improve portfolio performance by integrating regime-switching signals.
problem Improving portfolio performance through dynamic factor allocation.
method The authors apply the sparse jump model (SJM) to identify bull and bear market regimes for individual factors, then fine-tune hyperparameters using a hypothetical single-factor long-short strategy. These regime inferences are incorporated into the Black-Litterman framework to dynamically adjust allocations among indices.
result The constructed multi-factor portfolio significantly improves the information ratio (IR) relative to the market, raising it from 0.05 to approximately 0.4.
Study of symplectic cross-ratios in moduli spaces of line configurations.
problem Understanding geometric and combinatorial properties of line configurations in symplectic spaces.
method Analysis of moduli spaces, geometric and combinatorial problems, isomorphism to quotient spaces of linear difference operators.
result Moduli space of Lagrangian configurations is parametrized by n+1 symplectic cross-ratios, satisfying a remarkable relation.
Optimal transport method rejects new classes and adjusts class ratios for open set domain adaptation.
problem Handling new classes in target domains with distribution shifts.
method Two-step optimal transport approach: reject new classes first, then adjust class ratios.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods in open set domain adaptation.
Introduces GA-P/E, a growth-adjusted stock valuation measure.
problem Evaluating stock value and predicting future returns.
method Computes a payback period adjusted for earnings growth, using a sorted portfolio methodology.
result Low GA-P/E stocks outperform high GA-P/E stocks in absolute and risk-adjusted returns.
This study uses quantile regression to analyze U.S. firms' capital structure across different leverage levels.
problem Empirical determinants of capital structure adjustment in various macroeconomic states.
method Quantile regression method to investigate firm-specific and macroeconomic characteristics.
result Long-term and short-term debt ratios adjust at different speeds, with short-term debt increasing and long-term debt decreasing over time.
New star-shaped acceptability indexes generalize existing methods.
problem Generalizing existing acceptability measures.
method Characterizing acceptability indexes through star-shaped risk measures and sets.
result Introducing concrete examples linked to various financial measures.
AI optimizing for risk-adjusted return may choose unethical strategies.
problem AI optimization for risk-adjusted return may lead to unethical outcomes.
method Defined Unethical Odds Ratio (Υ) to calculate probability of unethical strategies, derived formula for limit as strategy space grows, provided algorithm for estimation.
result Probability of picking an unethical strategy can become high even with small proportion of unethical strategies.
We determine the Lyapunov spectrum of ball quotients arising from cyclic coverings. The computations are performed by rewriting the sum of Lyapunov exponents as ratios of intersection numbers and by the analysis of the period map near boundary divisors. As a corollary, we complete the classification of commensurability…
Combining smart beta strategies improves portfolio performance.
problem Enhancing risk-adjusted returns through smart beta strategies.
method Construction of a monthly reweighted portfolio with two independent smart beta strategies: a long-short beta-neutral strategy and a minimized volatility portfolio.
result Combined strategy achieved a Sharpe Ratio of 1.35 in live trading.
Develops a method to efficiently compute Wasserstein barycenters with variational distributions.
problem High computational burden in computing Wasserstein barycenters for high-dimensional and continuous settings.
method Introduces a variational distribution to approximate the continuous Wasserstein barycenter, reformulating the problem as an optimization with c-cyclical monotonicity.
result The method provides a tractable dual formulation for efficient computation of Wasserstein barycenters, demonstrated on real applications.
Modeling financial markets with sandpile model to understand price volatility and arbitrage constraints.
problem Understanding price volatility and arbitrage constraints in financial markets.
method Uses a sandpile model to represent information and price changes, linking size of price volatility to the scaling law of avalanches.
result Identifies a structural tension between non-arbitrage condition and price adjustments consistent with a constant Sharpe ratio.
Improved portfolio optimization method yields better risk-adjusted returns.
problem Optimizing global minimum variance portfolios with reduced risk.
method k-fold boosted BAHC covariance cleaning procedure for correlation matrices.
result Our method outperforms other filtering methods in Sharpe ratios, despite higher turnover.
The paper develops methods for conditional inference on the asset with the highest Sharpe ratio.
problem Performing inference on the asset with the highest Sharpe ratio among correlated assets.
method Conditional inference procedure using multivariate Sharpe ratio standard error, alternative tests, and asymptotic adjustments.
result The conditional inference procedure achieves nominal type I rate and maintains near-nominal rejection rates under the conditional null.
New method estimates hazard ratios without bias in observational studies.
problem Uninterpretable hazard ratios due to unspecified baseline hazard.
method Kernel-based machine learning to model risk set changes.
result Debiased maximum-likelihood estimators identify true hazard ratios.
Mitigates confirmation bias in SSL by adjusting pseudo labels dynamically.
problem Confirmation bias in semi-supervised learning leads to errors in pseudo labels.
method TaMatch framework adjusts scaling ratio to debias pseudo labels and dynamically adjusts target distribution.
result TaMatch significantly outperforms existing methods in SSL tasks.
The shrinkage type of knotsmath.GT
We study spectral gaps of cellular differentials for finite cyclic coverings of knot complements. Their asymptotics can be expressed in terms of irrationality exponents associated with ratios of logarithms of algebraic numbers determined by the first two Alexander polynomials. From this point of view it is natural to s…
The paper optimizes dynamic portfolios using utility maximization and risk measures.
problem Maximizing expected utility in dynamic stochastic portfolio optimization.
method Solves a dynamic stochastic portfolio optimization problem numerically using evolutionary Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations and Riccati transformations.
result Defines and computes the Conditional Value-at-Risk deviation (CVaRD) based Sharpe ratio for risk-adjusted performance.
Utility-Weighted Forecasting and Calibration for Risk-Adjusted Decisions under Trading Frictionsecon.EM
The paper optimizes forecasting for risk-adjusted decisions under trading frictions.
problem Optimizing forecasting accuracy for investment decisions in the presence of transaction costs.
method Develops a utility-weighted calibration criterion to minimize decision loss net of costs.
result Utility-weighted calibration reduces decision loss by over 30% and improves Sharpe ratio.
Study post-hoc Learning to Defer using density-ratio losses.
problem Optimizing decision-making between models and experts.
method Density-ratio losses for post-hoc L2D scorers, derived from class-probability estimation.
result The approach recovers known results and introduces new connections to expert comparison and anomaly detection.
Importance weighting is a general way to adjust Monte Carlo integration to account for draws from the wrong distribution, but the resulting estimate can be highly variable when the importance ratios have a heavy right tail. This routinely occurs when there are aspects of the target distribution that are not well captur…
Practical Portfolio Optimization with Metaheuristics:Pre-assignment Constraint and Margin Tradingq-fin.PM
Metaheuristics optimize portfolios with pre-assignment and margin trading for better risk-adjusted returns.
problem Maximizing returns while minimizing risk in portfolio optimization.
method Incorporates pre-assignment constraints and margin trading strategies using Genetic Algorithms and Particle Swarm Optimization.
result Metaheuristic-based portfolio optimization yields superior risk-adjusted returns compared to traditional methods.
We develop a theory for pricing non-diversifiable mortality risk in an incomplete market. We do this by assuming that the company issuing a mortality-contingent claim requires compensation for this risk in the form of a pre-specified instantaneous Sharpe ratio. We prove that our ensuing valuation formula satisfies a nu…
Paper develops a robust hedging framework to reduce market risk and uncertainty.
problem Managing uncertainty and risk exposure in portfolio management.
method Combines high-frequency realized variance, covariance measures, and autoregressive models for multi-step volatility forecasting. Uses a box-uncertainty robust optimization scheme to derive a closed-form solution for the robust hedge ratio.
result Robust hedge ratios are more stable and entail lower turnover than standard dynamic hedges, improving downside protection and risk-adjusted performance.
The paper optimizes portfolios using clustering and Sharpe ratio-based optimization.
problem Optimizing portfolio performance in financial modeling.
method Combines K-Means clustering for asset segmentation and Sharpe ratio-based optimization.
result Optimized portfolios outperform traditional equal-weighted benchmarks.
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have been gaining increasing popularity in the investment community as is evidenced by the high growth both in the number of ETFs and their net assets since 2000. As ETFs are in nature similar to index mutual funds, in this paper we examined if this growing demand for ETFs can be explained …
Develops a method to estimate average hazard under non-proportional hazards without relying on proportional hazards assumption.
problem Estimation of treatment effects when hazards are non-proportional, leading to unstable hazard ratios.
method Semiparametric, doubly robust framework for covariate-adjusted average hazard estimation.
result Valid sqrt{n} inference with small bias and near-nominal confidence-interval coverage across proportional and non-proportional hazards settings.