New parities defined on virtual knots linked to crossing indices.
problem Defining parities on virtual knots.
method Connecting parities to invariant cycles on arcs and quasi-indices on crossings.
result New series of parities on virtual knots defined.
Bitcoin's price indicators fail to predict halving epochs, but its time structure remains consistent.
problem The failure of widely used Bitcoin price indicators to predict halving epochs.
method Retrospective analysis of Bitcoin price indicators over four halving epochs, using a fixed mechanical rule.
result Price indicators fail to predict halving epochs, but Bitcoin's time structure remains consistent.
In this paper, we introduce a novel task for machine learning in healthcare, namely personalized modeling of the female hormonal cycle. The motivation for this work is to model the hormonal cycle and predict its phases in time, both for healthy individuals and for those with disorders of the reproductive system. Becaus…
Investigates local indicability of groups with circle homology presentations.
problem Conditions for local indicability in groups with circle homology presentations.
method Generalizes results for two-relator presentations to circle homology presentations.
result Extends results on local indicability to LOT groups and non-cycle-free Adian presentations.
Study examines cash conversion cycle in manufacturing firms, finding negative relationships with profitability and size.
problem Understanding cash conversion cycle in manufacturing firms and its impact on profitability and size.
method Empirical study of 30 manufacturing firms in Dhaka Stock Exchanges, categorizing them into six industries, analyzing industry averages and relationships with size and profitability.
result Negative relationship between cash conversion cycle and profitability, especially ROE; negative relationship with firm size in terms of net sales.
Debate over the existence of branches in the stellar activity-rotation diagrams continues. Application of modern time series analysis tools to study the mean cycle periods in chromospheric activity index is lacking. We develop such models, based on Gaussian processes, for one-dimensional time series and apply it to the…
We have analyzed the Indices of Industrial Production (Seasonal Adjustment Index) for a long period of 240 months (January 1988 to December 2007) to develop a deeper understanding of the economic shocks. The angular frequencies estimated using the Hilbert transformation, are almost identical for the 16 industrial secto…
The determinants of the velocity of money have been examined based on life-cycle hypothesis. The velocity of money can be expressed by reciprocal of the average value of holding time which is defined as interval between participating exchanges for one unit of money. This expression indicates that the velocity is govern…
Machine learning predicts US and EuroZone business cycles with high accuracy.
problem Predicting the business cycle phases in US and EuroZone.
method Three machine learning approaches were compared: Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) achieved the best results.
result MLR achieved 65.25% accuracy for EuroZone and 75% for US in predicting business cycle phases.
Financial markets can be seen as complex systems that are constantly evolving and sensitive to external disturbance, such as systemic risks and economic instabilities. Analysis of resilient market performance, therefore, becomes useful for investors. From a systems perspective, this paper proposes a novel function-base…
Paper uses LSTM to predict inflation, finds it performs well over long periods.
problem Predicting inflation using machine learning models.
method Applies LSTM, a recurrent neural network, to forecast inflation over time.
result LSTM model performs well at long horizons and during uncertain economic times.
A geometric model for twisted K-homology is introduced. It is modeled after the Mathai-Melrose-Singer fractional analytic index theorem in the same way as the Baum-Douglas model of K-homology was modeled after the Atiyah-Singer index theorem. A natural transformation from twisted geometric K-homology to the new g…
Study analyzes financial distributions and inequality in professional cycling teams.
problem Financial inequality and concentration among cycling teams.
method Rank-size law and various inequality indices applied to Tour de France data.
result Financial gains distribution is hyperbolic with a decay exponent of about -1, contrary to Pareto principle.
Study shows how business cycle affects dividend payout based on managerial stock incentives.
problem Impact of managerial stock incentives on dividend payout policy during business cycles.
method Using S&P 1500 companies data from 2000-2018, analyzing full sample and recession periods.
result Negative relationship between managerial stock options and dividend payouts, significant for medium-sized companies.
Probabilistic modeling is cyclical: we specify a model, infer its posterior, and evaluate its performance. Evaluation drives the cycle, as we revise our model based on how it performs. This requires a metric. Traditionally, predictive accuracy prevails. Yet, predictive accuracy does not tell the whole story. We propose…
The paper examines how insurers manage risks and liquidity in a dynamic market.
problem Model uncertainty in insurance pricing and competitive equilibrium.
method Analyzes insurers' robustness preferences and optimization strategies for underwriting and liquidity management.
result Robust insurance pricing leads to higher premiums and equity valuations compared to a benchmark.
The sectoral synchronization observed for the Japanese business cycle in the Indices of Industrial Production data is an example of synchronization. The stability of this synchronization under a shock, e.g., fluctuation of supply or demand, is a matter of interest in physics and economics. We consider an economic syste…
The paper analyzes profitable bidding strategies for BESS in day-ahead and intraday markets.
problem Optimizing profitability of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) in day-ahead and intraday markets.
method Employing the rolling intrinsic approach to model continuous intraday markets, accounting for bid-ask spreads and liquidity constraints.
result Multi-market bidding strategies outperform single-market participation, and relaxing daily cycling constraints can unlock additional value.
Concurrent engineering taking into account product life-cycle factors seems to be one of the industrial challenges of the next years. Cost estimation and management are two main strategic tasks that imply the possibility of managing costs at the earliest stages of product development. This is why it is indispensable to…
Study on time-varying APT validity in Japanese stock market.
problem Validity of Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) in Japanese stock market over time.
method Rolling window method applied to Fama and MacBeth's two-step regression and Kamstra and Shi's generalized GRS test.
result APT validity is unstable over time in Japanese stock market, influenced by monetary policy and business cycle.
Odd crossing numbers and even rotation numbers for cycles in plane immersions.
problem Analyzing crossing and rotation numbers of cycles in plane immersions of graphs.
method Generic immersions and Legendrian embeddings of graphs, focusing on cycles of specific lengths.
result Sum of rotation numbers of all 5-cycles is even, and sum of crossing numbers is odd.
Method detects lithium-ion battery knee onset for early warning.
problem Early warning of lithium-ion battery performance changes.
method Temporal dynamics extraction and Matrix Profile anomaly detection.
result Knee onset detected for categorizing battery health.
The study shows how trade uncertainty affects stock-bond correlations over time.
problem Impact of trade policy uncertainty on stock-bond correlations.
method Daily data analysis using GARCH-based models (CCC, STCC, DCC) with TPU and political dummy variables.
result Time-varying correlation models better capture the dynamics of stock-bond correlations than constant models.
Proves inequality for 1-dimensional cycles.
problem Proving the Parametric Coarea Inequality for 1-cycles.
method Analytical proof based on conjecture by Guth and Liokumovich.
result Proved the Parametric Coarea Inequality for 1-cycles.
This work introduces novel methods to identify and compare cycles across topological objects.
problem Identifying and comparing topological features, particularly cycles, across different topological objects.
method Two complementary approaches: dendrogram-based merge-tree algorithms and Stratified Gradient Sampling.
result Transformed cycle matching into hierarchical clustering and topological optimization framework.
We identify a large class R of three-dimensional N=2 superconformal field theories. This class includes the effective theories T_M of M5-branes wrapped on 3-manifolds M, discussed in previous work by the authors, and more generally comprises theories that admit a UV description as abelian Chern-Simons-matter theories w…
This article introduces proximal planar vortex 1-cycles, resembling the structure of vortex atoms introduced by William Thomson (Lord Kelvin) in 1867 and recent work on the proximity of sets that overlap either spatially or descriptively. Vortex cycles resemble Thomson's model of a vortex atom, inspired by P.G. Tait's …
This paper identifies the unique efficient cycle for most hyperbolic manifolds but not for the figure-8 knot complement.
problem Identifying the unique efficient cycle for hyperbolic manifolds.
method Analyzing the limit of fundamental cycles and their ℓ1-norm convergence. result The uniqueness of the efficient cycle is proven for most hyperbolic manifolds but not for the figure-8 knot complement.
Study Agol cycles for pseudo-Anosov 3-braids.
problem Conditions for equivalent Agol cycles of pseudo-Anosov 3-braids.
method Investigate necessary and sufficient conditions.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for equivalent Agol cycles of pseudo-Anosov 3-braids.
Study shows credit expansion in mortgage markets influenced U.S. business cycle.
problem Lack of causal evidence in cross-country business cycle studies.
method Unique research design combining cross-metropolitan U.S. data.
result Credit expansion caused stronger booms and busts in house-related industries.
Researchers compute Connes-Chamseddine cycle on 6D manifolds using noncommutative integral.
problem Computing the Connes-Chamseddine cycle for 6D manifolds.
method Using noncommutative integral on 6D manifolds, they compute the cycle.
result The Connes-Chamseddine cycle on 6D manifolds is computed.
Gauss diagrams' properties can change with Hamiltonian cycle choice.
problem The impact of Hamiltonian cycle choice on Gauss diagrams.
method Examined realizable and unrealizable Gauss diagrams, and proved preservation of realizability under certain Hamiltonian cycle changes.
result Properties of Gauss diagrams can vary with Hamiltonian cycle choice.
Proximal algorithms applied to current deformation into cycles.
problem Deformation of de Rham currents into cycles.
method Proximal algorithms, total variation denoising for differential forms.
result Calibrated cycles constructed in calibrated manifolds.
New algorithm for learning causal structures with disjoint cycles in linear non-Gaussian models.
problem Learning causal structures with cycles in linear non-Gaussian models.
method Characterizing when graphs determine the same model, using quadratic and cubic polynomial relations, and a strategy of decorrelating cycles and multivariate regression.
result Consistent and computationally efficient algorithm for learning causal structures with disjoint cycles.
The paper constructs homotopically non-trivial spheres in complexified spaces.
problem Embedding spheres in complexified spaces defined by hyperplane arrangements.
method Introducing locally consistent systems of half-spaces, embedding a sphere, and computing twisted intersection numbers.
result The constructed sphere is homotopically non-trivial if the half-space system is globally consistent.
Credit expansion led to stronger household leverage cycles during the U.S. business cycle.
problem Understanding the role of credit supply in the U.S. business cycle.
method Causal evidence from 1999-2010 U.S. business cycle data.
result Credit expansion, particularly in private-label mortgages, caused stronger household leverage cycles.
In the current article we study complex cycles of higher multiplicity in a specific polynomial family of holomorphic foliations in the complex plane. The family in question is a perturbation of an exact polynomial one-form giving rise to a foliation by Riemann surfaces. In this setting, a complex cycle is defined as a …
AdaBoost cycles in probability simplex dynamics.
problem Understanding cycling behavior in AdaBoost.
method Computational methods and dynamical systems analysis.
result Correspondence between AdaBoost cycling and continued fractions dynamics.
Smooth approximation of integral cycles mod 2 in Riemannian manifolds.
problem Approximating mod 2 integral cycles by smooth submanifolds.
method Approximation of mod 2 integral cycles by smooth submanifolds with controlled singularities.
result Every mod 2 integral cycle can be approximated by a smooth submanifold with a controlled singular set.
Constructs an explicit cycle in arithmetic group cohomology.
problem Cohomology of SLn(Z) at virtual cohomological dimension. method Geometric rigidity of Voronoi tessellations and abstract framework for polyhedral tessellations.
result Explicit canonical cycle in top-dimensional homology of Voronoi complex.
Using Kontsevich's identification of the homology of the Lie algebra l_infty with the cohomology of Out(F_r), Morita defined a sequence of 4k-dimensional classes mu_k in the unstable rational homology of Out(F_{2k+2}). He showed by a computer calculation that the first of these is non-trivial, so coincides with the uni…
In this study, the fluctuation-dissipation theory is invoked to shed light on input-output interindustrial relations at a macroscopic level by its application to IIP (indices of industrial production) data for Japan. Statistical noise arising from finiteness of the time series data is carefully removed by making use of…
We introduce a notion of vanishing Maslov index for lagrangian varifolds and lagrangian integral cycles in a Calabi-Yau manifold. We construct mass-decreasing flows of lagrangian varifolds and lagrangian cycles which satisfy this condition. The flow of cycles converges, at infinite time, to a sum of special lagrangian …
Approximates cycles in planar and bounded-genus graphs.
problem Finding many disjoint cycles in planar and bounded-genus graphs.
method Constant-factor approximation algorithms for vertex-disjoint and edge-disjoint cycles.
result First algorithms for vertex-disjoint paths in fully planar and bounded-genus instances.
By generalizing the measurements on the game experiments of mixed strategy Nash equilibrium, we study the dynamical pattern in a representative dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE). The DSGE model describes the entanglements of the three variables (output gap [y], inflation [π] and nominal interest rate [$…
We present a necessary and sufficient condition for existence of a contractible, non-separating and noncontractible separating Hamiltonian cycle in the edge graph of polyhedral maps on surfaces. In particular, we show the existence of contractible Hamiltonian cycle in equivelar triangulated maps. We also present an alg…
Endogenous business cycles explain higher comovement across countries.
problem Standard models struggle to explain high comovement in business cycles across countries.
method Developed a demand-driven reduced-form model with strategic complementarities and international trade linkages.
result Combining endogenous business cycles with exogenous shocks matches empirical comovement levels.
Study Agol cycles in pseudo-Anosov 3-braids.
problem Understanding conjugacy invariants of pseudo-Anosov maps.
method Investigate train tracks associated with Farey intervals and describe Agol cycles.
result Complete description of Agol cycles in pseudo-Anosov 3-braids.