This paper examines how currency monopoly leads to economic instability and proposes a new currency system based on voluntary exchange.
problem Economic instability caused by currency monopoly.
method Examines the current economic system and proposes a new currency system based on voluntary exchange of goods and services.
result A new currency system emerges naturally from the free market, providing a way for public goods and services without direct taxation.
Monopoly breakup impacts AT&T and AMX's market value by 65% and 32%.
problem Understanding how financial markets value monopoly rents post-breakup.
method Univariate structural time series models to estimate pre-breakup and post-breakup values.
result Monopoly breakup significantly impacts market capitalization, as shown by AT&T and AMX.
Study finds non-monotonic Value of Information in dynamic multi-market monopoly.
problem Investigates non-monotonicity in Value of Information for a price-setting monopolist.
method Uses a Bayesian inverse problem with Kalman-Bucy-Stratonovich filter in a dynamic discrete model.
result Non-monotonic relationship between signal variance and Value of Information.
Study incentive efficiency in monopoly insurance markets with hidden information.
problem Maximizing social welfare in a monopoly insurance market with hidden agent types.
method Maximizes social welfare function subject to incentive compatibility and individual rationality constraints.
result Optimal menus of contracts depend on the level of social welfare weight and agent risk attitudes.
New algorithm optimizes auction prices in real-time.
problem Maximizing revenue in online auctions with high frequency data.
method First real-time algorithm for online learning of monopoly prices.
result Achieves constant time and memory complexity for updates.
Proposes EM-C algorithm for solving stochastic control problems.
problem Solving multi-period finite time horizon stochastic control problems.
method Sequentially updates control policies using Monte Carlo simulation in a forward-backward manner.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in monopoly pricing and real business cycle studies.
Study models weather index insurance pricing by insurers and farmers, finding flexible pricing kernels boost profits.
problem Monopoly pricing of weather index insurance with risk and flexibility considerations.
method Bowley-type sequential game with insurer and farmer, using neural networks for farmer's payoff.
result Flexible pricing kernels increase insurer profits closer to indemnity insurance levels.
Model shows multiple currencies can coexist in large systems.
problem Competition between currencies leads to fractionalized states.
method Simplified model of currency competition with transaction costs.
result Large systems maintain two distinct currency communities.
This paper optimizes multi-currency AMMs to reduce forex trading costs.
problem Lack of direct liquid markets for currency pairs.
method Constant-mean AMM architecture, hierarchical agglomerative clustering algorithm.
result Optimized multi-currency pools reduce trading costs by ~13%.
By analyzing the foreign exchange market data of various currencies, we derive a hierarchical taxonomy of currencies constructing minimal-spanning trees. Clustered structure of the currencies and the key currency in each cluster are found. The clusters match nicely with the geographical regions of corresponding countri…
Paper examines pricing and hedging for cross-currency swaps referencing backward-looking rates.
problem Pricing and hedging cross-currency swaps with backward-looking rates.
method Uses interest rate and currency futures for hedging, analyzes arbitrage-free multi-curve setting.
result Explicit pricing and hedging results for CCBS with backward-looking rates.
Bitcoins have emerged as a possible competitor to usual currencies, but other crypto-currencies have likewise appeared as competitors to the Bitcoin currency. The expanding market of crypto-currencies now involves capital equivalent to 1010 US Dollars, providing academia with an unusual opportunity to study the em…
The paper tackles adaptive policy selection to maximize social welfare, achieving optimal regret bounds.
problem Maximizing social welfare through adaptive policy selection, considering both private utility and public revenue.
method The approach involves learning response functions through experimentation, deriving lower and upper bounds for regret, and using algorithms like Exp3.
result The algorithm achieves optimal regret bounds, showing that welfare maximization is harder than multi-armed bandit problems.
Abstract framework for cross-currency interest rate contracts.
problem Handling cross-currency markets with collateral and incompleteness.
method Developed a general HJM framework for abstract market indices.
result Enabled simultaneous description of multiple currency interest rate products.
Brazil proposes a new BRICS trade currency to dominate international trade.
problem Dominance of BRICS currency in international trade.
method Mathematical model of influence battle between three currencies, using trade flows and weights in global trade.
result By 2012, about 58% of countries preferred trading with the BRICS currency.
Study examines risk of digital currencies using GARCH and Filtered Historical Simulation.
problem Risk management of digital currencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple.
method GARCH modelling followed by Filtered Historical Simulation.
result Digital currencies are subject to higher risk, requiring higher buffer and risk capital.
The paper examines dynamic reserving for multiple currencies under coherent risk measures.
problem Dynamic reserving for risk in multiple currencies under a general coherent risk measure.
method Shows time-consistency of reserving portfolios in multiple currencies when a generalized m-stability condition holds, equivalent to dynamic trading across baskets of currencies with proportional transaction costs.
result A version of the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing holds in this context, proving time-consistency of reserving portfolios.
Gold markets are less efficient than currency markets, contrary to expectations.
problem Evaluating the efficiency of gold markets relative to currency markets.
method Utilized the Efficiency Index (EI) based on fractal dimension, approximate entropy, and long-term memory on a portfolio of gold price series for different currencies.
result Gold prices in major currencies are among the least efficient, while minor currencies are among the most efficient.
World currency network constitutes one of the most complex structures that is associated with the contemporary civilization. On a way towards quantifying its characteristics we study the cross correlations in changes of the daily foreign exchange rates within the basket of 60 currencies in the period December 1998 -- M…
We analyze structure of the world foreign currency exchange (FX) market viewed as a network of interacting currencies. We analyze daily time series of FX data for a set of 63 currencies, including gold, silver and platinum. We group together all the exchange rates with a common base currency and study each group separa…
Develops a new model for cross-currency derivatives pricing.
problem Pricing cross-currency derivatives in a complex market model.
method Introduces a random field LIBOR market model to handle uncertainty in forward LIBOR rates.
result Derives exact and approximate pricing formulas for various derivatives.
A large set of daily FOREX time series is analyzed. The corresponding correlation matrices (CM) are constructed for USD, EUR and PLZ used as the base currencies. The triangle rule is interpreted as constraints reducing the number of independent returns. The CM spectrum is computed and compared with the cases of shuffle…
Study on currency option valuation in crisis markets.
problem Valuation of currency options in financial crisis markets.
method Modified Black-Scholes model with augmented stochastic volatility.
result Closed-form solution for European call and put options.
AI predicts currency strength based on economic fundamentals, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Exchange rate disconnect puzzle documented by Meese and Rogoff (1983).
method Generative AI (ChatGPT and DeepSeek) forecasts currency returns using economic data.
result Simple trading strategy based on AI fundamentals outperforms traditional currency factors.
The paper models currency substitution and money demand in CEE countries, finding interest rate spreads influence money demand.
problem Understanding currency substitution and money demand in CEE countries.
method Developed a microeconomic model to differentiate currency substitution from money demand sensitivity to exchange rate variations.
result Money demand is influenced by the interest rate spread between CEE countries and the euro area, not just currency substitution.
New digital currency aims for equal wealth distribution.
problem Inequality in cryptocurrency wealth distribution.
method Egalitarian coin minting and joint minting across communities.
result Achieves global distributive justice in wealth distribution.
Study multi-currency markets with multiple interest rates and collateral.
problem Characterize absence of arbitrage in a multi-currency market.
method Generalize results from Bielecki and Rutkowski (2015) to a multi-currency framework, linking with Piterbarg (2012), Moreni and Pallavicini (2017), and Fujii et al. (2010b). Characterize absence of arbitrage without collateral, then study collateralization schemes under various conventions.
result Complete study of absence of arbitrage and pricing in multi-currency markets with multiple interest rates and collateral.
Hybrid method reveals true currency correlations.
problem Identify currency status in foreign exchange networks.
method Combines DCCC and network deconvolution to filter indirect effects.
result Reflects currency status changes and is more stable.
Study on collateral currency impact in differential swaps valuation.
problem Impact of collateral currency on differential swap valuation and risk management.
method Replication using futures, explicit pricing and hedging strategies.
result Choice of collateral currency can introduce additional risk exposures.
It is well known that traded foreign exchange forwards and cross currency swaps (CCS) cannot be priced applying overnight cash and carry arguments as they imply absence of funding advantage of one currency to the other. This paper proposes a heuristic present value concept for multi-currency pricing and hedging which a…
The study reveals the hierarchical structure of the international FOREX market using currency fluctuation distribution similarities.
problem Understanding the hierarchical structure of the international FOREX market.
method Using Jensen-Shannon divergence to quantify the similarity between normalized logarithmic return distributions of currencies.
result Clusters of currencies are consistent with the nature of underlying economies but diverge during crises.
This paper uses bivariate time series to analyze currency similarity in the foreign exchange market.
problem Analyzing similarity among currencies in the foreign exchange market.
method Applies Escoufier's RV coefficient to measure similarity between bivariate time series of currency exchange rates.
result Demonstrates the advantages of using RV coefficient for analyzing currency topological structure.
In this paper an econophysics model for the currency exchange operations with commission is proposed. With this purpose some analogies and similarities of the processes that take place in the frame of the electrochemical system made from electrodes sunk into a solution of electrolytes and the process of the currency ex…
This paper optimizes international portfolios considering currency overlay costs and constraints.
problem Limited risk diversification in multi-currency portfolios due to currency concentration.
method Proposes a model integrating currency overlay and asset allocation optimization, accounting for costs and constraints.
result Inclusion of costs significantly alters optimal portfolio decisions and risk-return trade-offs.
Optimizing dividend payouts in a foreign currency for insurance companies.
problem Maximizing expected discounted dividends in a foreign currency context.
method Modelled as a Brownian motion with drift and Lévy process for currency fluctuation, explicit calculations for value function and strategy.
result Explicit calculation of value function and optimal strategy for dividend payouts.
New method quantifies co-jumps' impact on currency market correlations.
problem Understanding how co-jumps affect correlations in currency markets.
method Proposes a wavelet-based estimator to localize and identify co-jumps.
result Co-jumps significantly influence correlation in currency markets.
Study prices currency options using fractional delta hedging with transaction costs.
problem Pricing European currency options with transaction costs in fractional Black Scholes model.
method Applied delta hedging strategy to derive pricing formula and PDE.
result Fractional Black Scholes model with transaction costs is a satisfactory model.
Develops a new framework for currency option pricing with transaction costs.
problem Pricing currency options under transaction costs and fractional Brownian motion.
method Analytic formula derived using mean self-financing delta-hedging in a discrete time setting.
result Minimal price formula for currency options under transaction costs.
For the purpose of elucidating the correlation among currencies, we analyze daily and high-resolution data of foreign exchange rates. There is strong correlation for pairs of currencies of geographically near countries. We show that there is a time delay of order less than a minute between two currency markets having a…
We develop the first basic Operational Risk perspective on key risk management issues associated with the development of new forms of electronic currency in the real economy. In particular, we focus on understanding the development of new risks types and the evolution of current risk types as new components of financia…
Study shows variance gamma model outperforms Black-Scholes for USD-INR currency options.
problem Complex pricing of currency options with multi-assets.
method Examined USD-INR currency options, tested several models, compared performance.
result Variance gamma model outperforms Black-Scholes model in various volatility regimes.
A new approach for pricing FX options that uses a single model for all markets.
problem Consistent pricing of FX options across different markets.
method Intermediate currency approach, calibrating to domestic market volatility smile.
result Model automatically reproduces correct foreign market volatility smiles.
Automated market-making for CBDCs and stable coins on blockchain.
problem Creating fair exchange rates for digital assets on blockchain.
method Developed an innovative approach for generating fair exchange rates.
result Illustrated the approach's efficacy on G-10 currency exchange rates.
Study game options pricing and hedging in multi-currency models with transaction costs.
problem Pricing and hedging game options in currency models with transaction costs.
method Efficient constructions for optimal hedging, cancellation, and exercise strategies are presented.
result Probabilistic dual representations for the bid and ask price of a game option.
This paper investigates arbitrage chains involving four currencies and four foreign exchange trader-arbitrageurs. In contrast with the three-currency case, we find that arbitrage operations when four currencies are present may appear periodic in nature, and not involve smooth convergence to a "balanced" ensemble of exc…
We explore the effects of social influence in a simple market model in which a large number of agents face a binary choice: 'to buy/not to buy' a single unit of a product at a price posted by a single seller (the monopoly case). We consider the case of 'positive externalities': an agent is more willing to buy if the ot…
Study predicts crypto-currency price collapses using standard deviation.
problem Detecting price collapses in crypto-currencies.
method Phenomenological model and analysis of standard deviation.
result Standard deviation can predict crypto-currency price collapses.
We studied the topology of correlation networks among 34 major currencies using the concept of a minimal spanning tree and hierarchical tree for the full years of 2007-2008 when major economic turbulence occurred. We used the USD (US Dollar) and the TL (Turkish Lira) as numeraires in which the USD was the major currenc…