A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study shows cryptocurrency price fluctuations become more similar to national currencies over time.
The study reveals the hierarchical structure of the international FOREX market using currency fluctuation distribution similarities.
On Jan. 1, 1999 the European Union introduced a common currency Euro (), to become the legal currency in all eleven countries which form the . In order to test the behavior and understand various features, the exchange rate is artificially extrapolated back to 1993 by a linear superposition of the…
The Euro (EUR) has been a currency introduced by the European Community on Jan. 01, 1999. This implies eleven countries of the European Union which have been found to meet the five requirements of the Maastricht convergence criteria. In order to test EUR behavior and understand various features, we have extrapolated th…
Identifying behavior that is relatively invariant under different conditions is a challenging task in far-from-equilibrium complex systems. As an example of how the existence of a semi-invariant signature can be masked by the heterogeneity in the properties of the components comprising such systems, we consider the exc…
Paper uses machine learning to forecast significant currency exchange rate fluctuations.
The cross-correlations between the exchange rate fluctuations of 74 currencies over the period 1995-2012 are analyzed in this paper. The eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix exhibits a bulk which approximately matches the bounds predicted from random matrices constructed using mutually uncorrelated t…
We consider an insurance entity endowed with an initial capital and a surplus process modelled as a Brownian motion with drift. It is assumed that the company seeks to maximise the cumulated value of expected discounted dividends, which are declared or paid in a foreign currency. The currency fluctuation is modelled as…
Emerging economies use countercyclical policies to manage crises and dominant currencies.
Study compares GARCH, EWMA, and IV models for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP currency pairs.
Digital currencies exhibit multifractality due to heavy-tailed returns and temporal correlations.
There is intense interest in understanding the stochastic and dynamical properties of the global Foreign Exchange (FX) market, whose daily transactions exceed one trillion US dollars. This is a formidable task since the FX market is characterized by a web of fluctuating exchange rates, with subtle inter-dependencies wh…
This work studies the symmetry between colloidal dynamics and the dynamics of the Euro--US Dollar currency exchange market (EURUSD). We consider the EURUSD price in the time range between 2001 and 2015, where we find significant qualitative symmetry between fluctuation distributions from this market and the ones belong…
Model estimates foreign exchange reserve compositions of undisclosed central banks.
The year 2017 saw the rise and fall of the crypto-currency market, followed by high variability in the price of all crypto-currencies. In this work, we study the abrupt transition in crypto-currency residuals, which is associated with the critical transition (the phenomenon of critical slowing down) or the stochastic t…
We investigate quotation and transaction activities in the foreign exchange market for every week during the period of June 2007 to December 2010. A scaling relationship between the mean values of number of quotations (or number of transactions) for various currency pairs and the corresponding standard deviations holds…
This paper examines pricing and hedging strategies for cross-currency equity protection swaps.
AI models assess psychological risks in currency trading.
This research predicts Bitcoin prices using wavelet and deep stacking approach.
This study investigates that a characteristic time scale on an exchange rate market (USD/JPY) is examined for the period of 1998 to 2000. Calculating power spectrum densities for the number of tick quotes per minute and averaging them over the year yield that the mean power spectrum density has a peak at high frequenci…
We show that the introduction of Tobin taxes in agent-based models of currency markets can lead to a reduction of speculative trading and reduce the magnitude of exchange rate fluctuations at intermediate tax rates. In this regime revenues for the market maker obtained from speculators are maximal. We here focus on Min…
We investigate the Heston model with stochastic volatility and exponential tails as a model for the typical price fluctuations of the Brazilian São Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOVESPA). Raw prices are first corrected for inflation and a period spanning 15 years characterized by memoryless returns is chosen for the ana…
Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on a reference entity may be traded in multiple currencies, in that protection upon default may be offered either in the domestic currency where the entity resides, or in a more liquid and global foreign currency. In this situation currency fluctuations clearly introduce a source of risk on C…
We present a systematic study of various statistical characteristics of high-frequency returns from the foreign exchange market. This study is based on six exchange rates forming two triangles: EUR-GBP-USD and GBP-CHF-JPY. It is shown that the exchange rate return fluctuations for all the pairs considered are well desc…
Study proposes a method to construct copulas using corrected Hermite polynomial expansion for estimating foreign exchange volatility.
This paper investigates - on the basis of the Cont-Bouchaud model - whether a Tobin tax can stabilize foreign exchange markets. Compared to earlier studies, this paper explicitly recognizes that a transaction tax-induced reduction in market depth may increase the price responsiveness of a given order. We find that the …
A new theory for pricing options of a stock is presented. It is based on the assumption that while successive variations in return are uncorrelated, the frequency with which a stock is traded depends on the value of the return. The solution to the Fokker-Planck equation is shown to be an asymmetric exponential distribu…
Study examines USD exchange rate dynamics using Kramers-Moyal expansion.
In the paper, we study numerically the projections of the real exchange rate dynamics onto the string-like topology. Our approach is inspired by the contemporary movements in the string theory. The string map of data is defined here by the boundary conditions, characteristic length, real valued and the method of redist…
Econophysics is a science in its infancy, born about ten years ago at this time of writing, at the crossing roads of physics, mathematics, computing and of course economics and finance. It also covers human sciences, because all economics is ultimately driven by human decision. From this human factor, econophysics has …
We present a simplistic model of the competition between different currencies. Each individual is free to choose the currency that minimizes his transaction costs, which arise whenever his exchanging relations have chosen a different currency. We show that competition between currencies does not necessarily converge to…
By analyzing the foreign exchange market data of various currencies, we derive a hierarchical taxonomy of currencies constructing minimal-spanning trees. Clustered structure of the currencies and the key currency in each cluster are found. The clusters match nicely with the geographical regions of corresponding countri…
Paper examines pricing and hedging for cross-currency swaps referencing backward-looking rates.
Bitcoins have emerged as a possible competitor to usual currencies, but other crypto-currencies have likewise appeared as competitors to the Bitcoin currency. The expanding market of crypto-currencies now involves capital equivalent to US Dollars, providing academia with an unusual opportunity to study the em…
Abstract framework for cross-currency interest rate contracts.
Brazil proposes a new BRICS trade currency to dominate international trade.
Multifractal detrended cross-correlation methodology is described and applied to Foreign exchange (Forex) market time series. Fluctuations of high frequency exchange rates of eight major world currencies over 2010-2018 period are used to study cross-correlations. The study is motivated by fundamental questions in compl…
In recent years a new type of tradable assets appeared, generically known as cryptocurrencies. Among them, the most widespread is Bitcoin. Given its novelty, this paper investigates some statistical properties of the Bitcoin market. This study compares Bitcoin and standard currencies dynamics and focuses on the analysi…
World currency network constitutes one of the most complex structures that is associated with the contemporary civilization. On a way towards quantifying its characteristics we study the cross correlations in changes of the daily foreign exchange rates within the basket of 60 currencies in the period December 1998 -- M…
Develops a new model for cross-currency derivatives pricing.
A large set of daily FOREX time series is analyzed. The corresponding correlation matrices (CM) are constructed for USD, EUR and PLZ used as the base currencies. The triangle rule is interpreted as constraints reducing the number of independent returns. The CM spectrum is computed and compared with the cases of shuffle…
We analyze structure of the world foreign currency exchange (FX) market viewed as a network of interacting currencies. We analyze daily time series of FX data for a set of 63 currencies, including gold, silver and platinum. We group together all the exchange rates with a common base currency and study each group separa…
This paper aims to investigate the role of gold as a hedge and/or safe haven against oil price and currency market movements for medium (calm period) and large (extreme movement) fluctuations. In revisiting the role of gold, our study proposes new insights into the literature. First, our empirical design relaxes the as…
New digital currency aims for equal wealth distribution.
Hybrid method reveals true currency correlations.
Study on collateral currency impact in differential swaps valuation.
It is well known that traded foreign exchange forwards and cross currency swaps (CCS) cannot be priced applying overnight cash and carry arguments as they imply absence of funding advantage of one currency to the other. This paper proposes a heuristic present value concept for multi-currency pricing and hedging which a…
Empirical analysis of the foreign exchange market is conducted based on methods to quantify similarities among multi-dimensional time series with spectral distances introduced in [A.-H. Sato, Physica A, 382 (2007) 258--270]. As a result it is found that the similarities among currency pairs fluctuate with the rotation …